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At least 451 records · Page 25

Coronal Mass Ejections and their Implications for the Corona and Heliosphere

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest and most energetic form of transients that connect the Sun to the heliosphere. They are critically important both for understanding the physical mechanisms of explosive solar activity and for predicting space weather. Furthermore they are an extreme example of how cross-scale coupling can play a critical role in determining the properties of a large-scale dynamical system. In this presentation CME theories are reviewed and the latest results from 3D numerical modeling of CME initiation propagation to the heliosphere are presented. In particular the focus is on the breakout model, but many of the results hold for the flux rope models as well. The implications of these results for understanding heliospheric structure and dynamics and for upcoming space missions will be discussed.

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗

Finding Extremely Compact Sources Using the ASKAP VAST Survey

VLBI observations of intraday variable (IDV) quasars found in the MASIV (Micro-Arcsecond Scintillation-Induced Variability) 5 GHz VLA Survey of 500 flat-spectrum sources in the northern sky have shown that these sources are extremely compact, often unresolved, on milliarcsecond scales, and more core-dominated than their non-IDV counterparts. VAST: an ASKAP Survey for Variables and Slow Transients, proposes to observe 10,000 square degrees of southern sky daily for 2 years in the VAST-Wide survey component. This is expected to reveal of order 30,000 compact sources brighter than 10 mJy showing refractive interstellar scintillation (the cause of centimeter-wavelength IDV) at the survey frequency of about 1.4 GHz. Many of these sources may be suitable astrometric calibrators for VLBI at higher frequencies.

Bignall, Hayley E.↗

Use of North American and European Air Quality Networks to Evaluate Global Chemistry-Climate Modeling of Surface Ozone

We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1 degree by 1 degree grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (approximately 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 parts per billion, and the observed seasonal range (approximately 21 parts per billion) is underestimated by about 5 parts per billion except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 parts per billion. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 percent of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 parts per billion for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

diurnal variations↗

A Comparison of the Noise Characteristics of a Conventional Slat and Krueger Flap

An aeroacoustic test of two types of leading-edge high-lift devices has been conducted in the NASA Langley Quiet Flow Facility. The test compares a conventional slat with a notional equivalent-mission Krueger flap. The test matrix includes points that allow for direct comparison of the conventional and Krueger devices for equivalent-mission configurations, where the two high-lift devices satisfy the same lift requirements for a free air flight path at the same cruise airfoil angle of attack. Measurements are made for multiple Mach numbers and directivity angles. Results indicate that the Krueger flap shows similar agreement to the expected power law scaling of a conventional flap, both in terms of Strouhal number and fixed frequency (as a surrogate for Helmholtz number). Directivity patterns vary depending on the specific slat and Krueger orientations. Varying the slat gap while holding overlap constant has the same influence on both the conventional slat and Krueger flap acoustic signature. Closing the gap shows dramatic reduction in levels for both devices. Varying the Krueger overlap has a different effect on the data when compared to varying the slat overlap, but analysis is limited by acoustic sources that regularly present themselves in model-scale wind tunnel testing but are not present for full-scale vehicles. The Krueger cavity is found to have some influence on level and directivity, though not as much as the other considered parameter variations. Overall, while the spectra of the two devices are different in detail, their scaling behavior for varying parameters is extremely similar.

Bahr, Christopher J.↗

Hi-C2.1 Observations of Solar Jetlets at Edges of Network Lanes

We present high resolution (0.2”) high cadence (5s) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations of small-­scale jetlet-­like features and spicule-­like features observed with NASA’s High-­resolution Coronal Imager2.1 (Hi-C) during its 5‐min observing span. We investigate the magnetic setting of 4 on-disk jetlets and 2 on-­disk spicules by using high resolution 172A images from Hi-­‐C and EUV images from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and line-­of-­sight magnetograms from SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). The jetlets and spicules are at edges of magnetic network lanes. From magnetograms co-­aligned with the Hi-­C and AIA images, we find that the jetlets stem from sites of likely flux cancelation between merging majority-polarity and weaker minority-­polarity flux, but in contrast to larger jetlets observed by IRIS some do not show obvious enhanced brightenings at their base. Based on the similarity of these observations of approx. 4 obvious Hi-­C small jetlets with our previous observations of 10 IRIS larger jetlets and approx. 30 coronal jets in quiet regions and coronal holes, we infer that flux cancelation is probably the essential process in the buildup and triggering of jetlets. Our observations suggest that network jetlet eruptions, large and small, are small-scale analogs of both larger-­scale coronal jet eruptions and the still-­larger-­scale eruptions that makemajor CMEs. For simplicitywe will use termjetlets for jetlet-­like features and spicules for spicule-­like features.

Panesar, Navdeep K.↗

Extreme Air Pollution Events in Hokkaido, Japan Traced Back to Early Snowmelt and Large-Scale Wildfires Over East Eurasia: Case Studies

To identify the unusual climate conditions and their connections to air pollutions in a remote area due to wildfires, we examine three anomalous large-scale wildfires in May 2003, April 2008, and July 2014 over East Eurasia, as well as how products of those wildfires reached an urban city, Sapporo, in the northern part of Japan (Hokkaido), significantly affecting the air quality. NASA's MERRA-2 (the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) aerosol re-analysis data closely reproduced the PM2.5 variations in Sapporo for the case of smoke arrival inJuly 2014. Results show that all three cases featured unusually early snowmelt in East Eurasia, accompanied by warmer and drier surface conditions in the months leading to the fires, inducing long-lasting soil dryness and producing environmental conditions conductive to active wildfires. Due to prevailing anomalous synoptic-scale atmospheric motions, smoke from those fires eventually reached a remote area, Hokkaido, and worsened the air quality in Sapporo. In futurestudies, continuous monitoring of the timing of Eurasian snowmelt and the air quality from the source regions to remote regions, coupled with the analysis of atmospheric and surface conditions, may be essential in more accurately predicting the effects of wildfires on air quality.

MERRA-2↗

The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.

global fire atlas↗

Multiplication of freestanding III-V semiconductor membranes from a single wafer by alternating growth with amorphous graphene interlayer

Freestanding single-crystalline III-V compound semiconductors are important building blocks for functional devices due to their high electron mobilities, a wide range of bandgaps, and excellent optoelectronic properties. Despite efforts to produce such membranes by detaching epitaxial layers from donor wafers, current methods suffer from either slow processes or poor material quality. Here, we demonstrate a technique to grow and harvest multiple epitaxial membranes with extremely high throughput at the wafer scale. For this, a process to directly grow amorphous graphene on III-V substrates in metal-organic chemical vapor deposition reactors is developed, which enables an advanced remote epitaxy scheme comprised of multiple alternating layers of amorphous graphene and III-V epitaxial layers that can be formed by a single epitaxy run. Each epilayer in the multi-stack structure is then harvested by layer-by-layer peeling, producing multiple freestanding membranes with unprecedented throughput from a single wafer. Because amorphous graphene provides a weak van der Waals interface that allows peeling at the interface without damaging the epilayer or the substrate, wafers can be reused for subsequent membrane production. Therefore, this work represents a meaningful step toward high-throughput and low-cost production of single-crystal membranes that can be heterointegrated.

Han, Ne Myo↗

Molecular clouds in the Carina arm - Large-scale properties of molecular gas and comparison with H I

Results from the first large-scale survey in the CO (J = 1 - 0) line of the Vela-Carina-Centaurus region of the southern Milky Way are reported. The results demonstrate that molecular clouds in the Galaxy are largely confined to the spiral arms and that CO is therefore an extremely good tracer of the large-scale structure of the system. The Carina arm is the dominant feature in the data. Its abrupt tangent at l of roughly 280 deg and characteristic loop in the (l, v) diagram are unmistakable evidence for CO spiral structure. When the emission is integrated over velocity and latitude, the height of the step seen in the tangent direction indicate that the arm-interarm contrast is at least 13:1.

Grabelsky, D. A.↗

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗

Standardizing an Intermediate-Scale High Explosive Safety Test Suite

Small-scale safety testing, while successful in screening out extremely dangerous explosive compositions, does not fully characterize the explosive hazards associated with handling larger, consolidated or bare charges. It is proposed that intermediate-scale tests using consolidated charges in the range 25 mg – 1 kg are warranted to satisfactorily address the hazards. A standard for this intermediate-scale testing should be developed, proofed, peer-reviewed and adopted to assist in the development of safe new high explosive compositions across the complex. This whitepaper explains why current small-scale safety testing is insufficient to characterize the handling hazard, identifies the guiding aspects of explosive response that drive the handling hazards associated with larger consolidated charges, and proposes a suite of tests/experiments that can serve as a starting point for an intermediate-scale safety standard.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures

In this study, we detect and track extratropical cyclones using 6-hourly mean sea level pressure data taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) over the period 1951–2015 and compare them with those in the Interim and fifth generation of ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2018. Three indices were employed to characterize cyclone activity, including cyclone count, cyclone intensity, and a cyclone activity index (CAI) that combines the count and intensity. The results show that the cyclone indices in the three datasets have comparable annual climatologies and seasonal evolution over the northern extratropical land and ocean in recent decades. Based on the cyclone indices over the period 1951–2010 in 80 ensemble members of 20CRv3, cyclone count and intensity are negatively correlated in winter and tend to be positively and weakly correlated in summer. The interannual CAI variability is dominated by the cyclone count variability. Regional mean cyclone activity can be well represented using the ensemble average cyclone index. We then examined the linkage of the cyclone activity in 20CRv3 and observed cold and warm extremes over Eurasia and North America over the period 1951–2010. In winter, the principal components of interannual cold and warm extreme anomalies are more correlated with the regional mean cyclone count index over Eurasia, while they are more correlated with the cyclone intensity index over North America. The temperature anomalies associated with the regional and ensemble mean cyclone count index explain about 10% (20%) of interannual cold (warm) extreme variances averaged over Eurasia. The temperature anomalies associated with the mean cyclone intensity explain about 10% of interannual cold and warm extreme variances over North America. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with cyclone activity and the induced temperature advection drive temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America. In summer, circulation and thermal advection anomalies associated with cyclone activity are weak over the two continents. Hence, that season’s relationship between cyclone activity and extreme temperature variability is weak.

20CRv3↗

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗

An Intelligent Distributed Ledger Construction Algorithm for IoT

Blockchain is the next generation of secure data management that creates near-immutable decentralized storage. Secure cryptography created a niche for blockchain to provide alternatives to well-known security compromises. However, design bottlenecks with traditional blockchain data structures scale poorly with increased network usage and are extremely computation-intensive. This made the technology difficult to combine with limited devices, like those in Internet of Things networks. In protocols like IOTA, replacement of blockchain's linked-list queue processing with a lightweight dynamic ledger showed remarkable throughput performance increase. However, current stochastic algorithms for ledger construction suffer distinct trade-offs between efficiency and security. This work proposed a machine-learning approach with a multi-arm bandit that resolved these issues and was designed for auditing on limited devices. This algorithm was tested in a reinforcement-learning environment simulating the IOTA ledger's construction with a decision tree. This study showed through regret analysis and experimentation that this approach was secure against impulse manipulation attacks while remaining energy-efficient. Although the IOTA protocol was a pioneer for lightweight distributed ledgers, it is expected that future blockchain protocols will adopt techniques similar to those presented in this work.

multi-arm bandit↗

High-Resolution Fire Weather Index Data for the Conterminous US (1980–2099), Version 1

This dataset presents a suite of high-resolution fire weather index datasets calculated from observation (gridMet, Livneh, Daymet V4), reanalysis (AgERA5), downscaled hydro-climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on multiple selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Aside from the daily FWI datasets, we also include a set of FWI extreme indicators at annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, including 1) fwixx: maximum FWI; 2) fwisa: mean FWI. For annual fwisa, it refers to the season with the maximum seasonal average; 3) fwils: Length of fire season over a specified period, where fire season is defined as the days exceeding the median value of the normalized FWI during the reference period (1980-1984); 4) fwixd: Number of extreme fire weather days over a specified period, where extreme day is defined as the day with FWI > the 95th percentile of the FWI during the reference period (1980-1984). All FWI datasets cover 1980-2020 baseline and the model simulated products including the downscaled products additionally include 2021-2099 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme Antiscaling Performance of Slippery Omniphobic Covalently Attached Liquids

Scale formation presents an enormous cost to the global economy. Classical nucleation theory dictates that to reduce the heterogeneous nucleation of scale, the surface should have low surface energy and be as smooth as possible. Past approaches have focused on lowering surface energy via the use of hydrophobic coatings and have created atomically smooth interfaces to eliminate nucleation sites, or both, via the infusion of low-surface-energy lubricants into rough superhydrophobic substrates. Although lubricant-based surfaces are promising candidates for antiscaling, lubricant drainage inhibits their utilization. Here, we develop methodologies to deposit slippery omniphobic covalently attached liquids (SOCAL) on arbitrary substrates. Similar to lubricant-based surfaces, SOCAL has ultralow roughness and surface energy, enabling low nucleation rates and eliminating the need to replenish the lubricant. To enable SOCAL coating on metals, we investigated the surface chemistry required to ensure high-quality functionalization as measured by ultralow contact angle hysteresis (<3°). Using a multilayer deposition approach, we first electrophoretically deposit (EPD) silicon dioxide (SiO 2 ) as an intermediate layer between the metallic substrate and SOCAL. The necessity of EPD SiO 2 is to smooth (<10 nm roughness) as well as to enable the proper surface chemistry for SOCAL bonding. To characterize antiscaling performance, we utilized calcium sulfate (CaSO 4 ) scale tests, showing a 20× reduction in scale deposition rate than untreated metallic substrates. Descaling tests revealed that SOCAL dramatically decreases scale adhesion, resulting in rapid removal of scale buildup. Furthermore, our work not only demonstrates a robust methodology for depositing antiscaling SOCAL coatings on metals but also develops design guidelines for the creation of antifouling coatings for alternate applications such as biofouling and high-temperature coking.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗