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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land-surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snow pack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Drought↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Land Surface Models and Indicators for Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Millions of people across the globe are affected by droughts every year, and recent droughts have highlighted the considerable agricultural impacts and economic costs of these events. Monitoring the state of droughts depends on integrating multiple indicators that each capture particular aspects of hydrologic impact and various types and phases of drought. As the capabilities of land surface models and remote sensing have improved, important physical processes such as dynamic, interactive vegetation phenology, groundwater, and snowpack evolution now support a range of drought indicators that better reflect coupled water, energy, and carbon cycle processes. In this work, we discuss these advances, including newer classes of indicators that can be applied to improve the characterization of drought onset, severity, and duration. We utilize a new model-based drought reconstruction to illustrate the role of dynamic phenology and groundwater in drought assessment. Further, through case studies on flash droughts, snow droughts, and drought recovery, we illustrate the potential advantages of advanced model physics and observational capabilities, especially from remote sensing, in characterizing droughts.

Christa D Peters-lidard↗
NASA NTRS2023

Fine particulate concentrations over East Asia derived from aerosols measured by the Advanced Himawari Imager using machine learning

Fine particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) is deleterious to the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. It is often difficult to assess the effects of PM 2.5 on human health over regions with limited ground monitoring sites, especially in East Asia. As an alternative, we estimated near-surface PM 2.5 concentrations by analyzing Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) Yonsei Aerosol Retrieval (YAER) products. This study incorporates daytime data for East Asia covering the Korean Peninsula, China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and southern Mongolia. We collocated AHI YAER product pixels with meteorological, land-cover, and other ancillary data for the period from March 2018 to February 2019. To estimate PM 2.5 concentrations over wide areas spanning many countries displaying various relationships between aerosol optical depth and PM 2.5 , monthly models were developed by considering both the spatial and temporal characteristics of ground-based PM 2.5 measurements. Random forest machine learning model estimated ground-level mass concentrations of PM 2.5 ; subsequent 10-fold cross validation (CV) yielded a CV R 2 value of 0.81 and a CV root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.3 μg m -3 . We investigated the spatial pattern of PM 2.5 concentrations over multiple countries and seasonal variation in PM 2.5 concentrations. Diurnal variation of a severe PM 2.5 event in the Korean Peninsula was investigated as a case study. The model captured the extremely heterogeneous spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations peaked around local noon. To measure the capability of the developed model to estimate PM 2.5 concentrations in areas with few in-situ data, its predictive performance was evaluated using a dataset independent of the training process with an R 2 of 0.60 and RMSE of 8.18 μg m −3 . This study demonstrates the potential for satellite-based PM 2.5 estimation for areas with insufficient measuring stations.

Pm2.5↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Modular Framework for Integrating and Visualizing Telemetry for Mars 2020 Rover Mechanism Operations

The analysis of mechanism telemetry requires a wide variety of tools to quickly and effectively assess spacecraft state, capture long-term trends in system performance, and identify and track anomalous events. Such analysis often requires spacecraft telemetry to first be transformed into derived fields and aggregated statistics before operators can begin their analysis. In past missions, aspects of this process have been automated, but operators were expected to use their own tools and procedures to understand and visualize the data, which led to redundant and inconsistent tools and processes. The Mech Data Tools Python library (MDT) was developed to provide a flexible, unified tool set for operators to extract and analyze mechanism telemetry over the life of the Mars 2020 surface mission. MDT consists of a set of configurable components that implement standard interfaces for ingesting input and producing output. Components can be chained together to form a data processing pipeline. Data are ingested from several sources within the greater Mars 2020 cloud infrastructure and stored in pandas DataFrames, which allows users to leverage the data manipulation capabilities present within the widely-used pandas library. Visualization capabilities are provided through the Plotly library, which generates interactive plots for users to interpret. Following the beginning of Mars 2020 surface operations, usage of MDT has spread to all mechanism-focused subsystems and has demonstrated great utility in analyzing early surface activities. This paper describes MDT’s evolution from heritage mechanism telemetry tools, the critical architecture decisions and challenges faced over MDT’s two years of development, and current applications of MDT in support of mechanism operations.

Wolsieffer, Ben↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Practical Tips for Setting Up an LS-DYNA MAT_213 Analysis

Since 2012, NASA has actively contributed to the development and application of the LS-DYNA MAT_213 material model to predict responses under dynamic loading events. This presentation provides a high-level overview of MAT_213 and captures practical tips and suggestions for using it.

MAT_213↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating ultrafine aerosol turbulent fluxes during atmospheric new particle formation events

New particle formation (NPF) is an important source of atmospheric aerosols, yet quantitatively predicting its occurrence remains challenging, partly because ground-based measurements cannot capture NPF accurately if they occur in the upper atmosphere. While observations have confirmed the presence of new particles near the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), their origins and the direction of their vertical transport have remained ambiguous. Here, we propose and validate an analytical framework using airborne eddy-covariance (EC) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to directly quantify the vertical flux of newly formed particles and determine its dominant vertical transportation direction. Analyzing data from a dedicated airborne campaign over the Southern Great Plains, we observed a persistent and strong downward particle flux during NPF events, with a mean value of 133.8 cm?3 m s?¹ downward flux in the entrainment zone, whereas fluxes on non-NPF days were negligible. Our spectral analysis further confirms that these directional fluxes can be reliably captured using standard 1 Hz aerosol instrumentation. These findings suggest that new particle formation, driven by the entrainment of air from the overlying residual/stable layer during PBL growth, is a significant and potentially understudied source of boundary layer aerosols. The framework presented here provides a methodology to correctly attribute NPF events to specific altitudes, thereby improving the mechanistic understanding required for accurate atmospheric models.

Zhang, Ruoyu↗
NASA NTRS2024

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CC054 2023 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring and Phase Two Expansion Construction Completion Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot 6 (HS 6) Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 14 operations and performance monitoring of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), details associated with construction and implementation of the HS 6 AS system expansion (Phase Two), and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. The timeframe for activities documented in this PMR extends from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. LC34 has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Program. The objective of the HC IM at LC34 is to contain the shallow and deep DSZ and surrounding dissolved-phase trichloroethene (TCE) high concentration plume via operation of a hydraulic containment system (HCS). The pre-IM design 300 micrograms per liter (μg/L) TCE groundwater contour was used to establish the deep zone capture area for deep recovery wells, and the shallow zone capture area was defined by the DSZ. The system began operating in 2010, and in 2015, the system was expanded to provide HC for areas within the 300 μg/L TCE groundwater isocontours of HS 3 and 4. In 2018 and 2019, an investigation was conducted to recharacterize the DSZ, which included investigating TCE mass in Layer 7. This data was subsequently used to optimize the pumping rates of the HCS and install additional recovery wells in Layer 7 to more adequately capture residual contaminant mass. The operational period for Year 14 of the HCS was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. Operational runtime for the system was 94 percent during Year 14, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2024, a total of 344,849,634 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 94,656 pounds of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs) have been removed by the HCS. During the reporting period covered under this report, the HCS recovered 31,176,393 gallons and approximately 6,319 pounds of CVOC mass. Total combined influent concentrations of TCE have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 µg/L (January 2010) to 25,000 µg/L (March 2024). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in January 2024 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2022. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet below land surface (bls), at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 µg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 28 to 98 feet bls. An overall decreasing trend of TCE concentrations was observed in DPT samples during this reporting period, which is a reduction from the previous event (December 2022) and the peak event in December 2021, where TCE percentages appeared to increase in all depth zones because several recovery wells were turned off during the AS pilot study in the DSZ. The maximum TCE concentration in January 2024 was 1,600,000 µg/L in the 53 feet bls depth interval at DPT594 (previous maximum result in 2022 was 1,800,000 µg/L in the 48 feet bls depth interval at DPT599). This maximum concentration in the 53 feet bls depth interval is in the deep capture zone. During the January 2024 DPT event, the largest portion of TCE mass was observed in the 48 feet bls interval above/within Layer 4. This trend remains consistent with previous years and appears to indicate continued mass discharge from Layer 4 (fine-grained unit). In addition to DPT sampling, annual groundwater samples were collected from 11 deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2023 to verify vertical and horizontal delineation. Three of the wells were also sampled biweekly to evaluate operations of recovery well RW21D (screened 86 to 106 feet bls), which was installed in January 2023. Of the Layer 7/8 monitoring sampled only annually, results were non-detect or less than groundwater cleanup target levels GCTLs in December 2023, with the exception of one well, IW45D2, which had a cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), detection greater than the GCTL. Of the three wells sampled biweekly during the operational period, the well located closest to Layer 7 recovery well RW21D (IW44D2, screened 105 to 115 feet bls) had concentrations of TCE, cDCE and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than GCTLs throughout the operational period, but displayed a decreasing trend since the peak concentrations in September 2023. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 190,000 µg/L at IW44D2 in September 2023, but reduced to 700 µg/L in March 2024, indicating the HCS is still effectively removing mass from the source area. Expansion of the HCS and addition of new recovery wells is ongoing and will continue to be evaluated as the groundwater recovery scheme is optimized. Details of the expansion and optimization will be provided in a future PMR. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells and expanded in 2019 with another 140 AS wells. An additional expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was completed during the reporting period covered under this report and details of the construction implementation and startup of the expansion are detailed in Section III of this report. The new expansion, referred to as Phase Two, was implemented between August 17, 2022 and August 28, 2023, and included the installation of 190 air sparge wells to treat an additional 11.2 acres. The original configuration (referred to as Phase One) operated until Phase Two came online, then all but 52 AS wells were turned off so the components could be moved and utilized in the Phase Two area. The 52 AS wells that remain on are in a barrier configuration preventing contaminated groundwater from impacting the treated area. The HS 6 AS system (both Phase One and Two) operated normally during the reporting period covered under this report. Semi-annual performance monitoring of the Phase One configuration was conducted in April and November 2023, consistent with previous years. For the Phase Two configuration, 21 new monitoring wells were installed and sampled quarterly, with a baseline event in July 2023, and quarterly events in November 2023 and February 2024 summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2023 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and VC) have decreased to less than GCTLs in nearly all wells and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM continues to meet objectives. The baseline and quarterly sampling for the Phase Two configuration indicate generally decreasing concentrations in wells within and around the perimeter of the treatment area. At least two more quarters of monitoring will be conducted and once those results are evaluated a reduced the sampling frequency may be considered. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 14 operation of the HC IM and operation of the HS 6 AS IM were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2022 LC34 (Year 13) PMR. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives.

groundwater remediation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seismological Stress Drops for Confined Ruptures Are Invariant to Normal Stress

Seismic moment and rupture length can be combined to infer stress drop, a key parameter for assessing earthquakes. In natural earthquakes, stress drops are largely depth-independent, which is surprising given the expected dependence of frictional stress on normal stresses and hence overburden. We have developed a transparent experimental fault that allows direct observation of thousands of slip events, with ruptures that are fully contained within the fault. Surprisingly, the observed stress drops are largely independent of both the magnitude of normal stress and its heterogeneity, capturing the independence seen in nature. However, we observe larger, normal stress-dependent stress drops when the fault area is reduced, which allows slip events to frequently reach the edge of the interface. We conclude that confined ruptures have normal stress independent stress drops, and thus the depth-independent stress drops of tectonic earthquakes may be a consequence of their confined nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗
NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Mission Automated Task Invocation Subsystem

Multi-Mission Automated Task Invocation Subsystem (MATIS) is software that establishes a distributed data-processing framework for automated generation of instrument data products from a spacecraft mission. Each mission may set up a set of MATIS servers for processing its data products. MATIS embodies lessons learned in experience with prior instrument- data-product-generation software. MATIS is an event-driven workflow manager that interprets project-specific, user-defined rules for managing processes. It executes programs in response to specific events under specific conditions according to the rules. Because requirements of different missions are too diverse to be satisfied by one program, MATIS accommodates plug-in programs. MATIS is flexible in that users can control such processing parameters as how many pipelines to run and on which computing machines to run them. MATIS has a fail-safe capability. At each step, MATIS captures and retains pertinent information needed to complete the step and start the next step. In the event of a restart, this information is retrieved so that processing can be resumed appropriately. At this writing, it is planned to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) for monitoring and controlling a product generation engine in MATIS. The GUI would enable users to schedule multiple processes and manage the data products produced in the processes. Although MATIS was initially designed for instrument data product generation,

Cheng, Cecilia S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Geometry-Driven Longitudal Topic Model

A simple and scalable framework for longitudinal analysis of Twitter data is developed that combines latent topic models with computational geometric methods. Dimensionality reduction tools from computational geometry are applied to learn the intrinsic manifold on which the latent, temporal topics reside. Then shortest path distances on the manifold are used to link together these topics. The proposed framework permits visualization of the low-dimensional embedding which provides clear interpretation of the complex, high-dimensional trajectories that may exist among latent topics. Practical application of the proposed framework is demonstrated through its ability to capture and effectively visualize natural progression of latent COVID-19 related topics learned from Twitter data. Interpretability of the trajectories is achieved by comparing to real-world events. In addition, the framework permits study of spatial variation in Twitter behavior for learned topics. The analysis demonstrates that the proposed framework is able to capture granular-level impact of COVID-19 on public discussions. We end by arguing that Twitter data, when analyzed within the proposed framework, can serve as a valuable supplementary data stream for COVID-related studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous Operations for Advanced Reactors Utilizing Supervisory Control

Automation is a critical tenet of reactor plant operations as reliance on nuclear energy increases. Nuclear power plants require a large workforce which does not scale with output; that is, the cost per megawatt increases as reactor output becomes smaller. The economic viability of advanced reactors, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, requires a significantly reduced onsite workforce. The logical solution is establishing a systematic process of elimination of reliance on human operators, and to the extent possible, replacing these actions with automated functions. In this paper, we propose a method for such transformation to establish a robust technical basis to enable transition to autonomy. Our method is based on finite state automata (FSA)—also known as finite state machines (FSMs). Relying on this method allows us to exploit the rich set of mathematical proofs available in the field of regular languages. FSA are one of the mathematical tools to model discrete event systems (DES). These properties are applied to produce an automated startup controller for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR). The startup procedure is captured in terms of discrete changes from one state to another while an independent supervisory control system directs the sequence of states and alerts a human in the event of an abnormal operation. First, the design and behavior of the MITR rod control system were modeled in Simulink. Then, the startup procedure was applied to the rod control system and the DES performed a startup by procedurally withdrawing rods to the subcritical position. The simulation also stops rod motion in response to an uncontrollable event and restarts rod motion once the event has been cleared.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Test of nuclear decay rate variation due to an antineutrino flux

Unexplained variations of the decay rate parameter for weak interaction decays such as β ± decay, electron capture, as well as strong interaction α decay have been reported. Because these variations have been presented by a number of groups, at various locations, using various types of detectors, different isotopes, and over extended periods of time, some researchers have interpreted the source of these variations as not from ambient environmental factors such as temperature, pressure, and humidity but via an unexplained fundamental interaction. The state of decay rate parameter variations experiments is reviewed, and the reported results are placed into a common comparable context by defining a phenomenological cross section. After that we make decay parameter measurements as a function of time at the level of 10 -5 in the presences of an antineutrino flux with an on-off cycle time of ≈ 30 days. This level of precision requires a detailed understanding of both systematic and statistical errors; otherwise, systematic errors in the measurement may mimic the decay events of fundamental interactions. The experiment searched for variation of the $^{54}_{25}$Mn, e - capture decay rate parameter and $^{137}_{55}$Cs, β - decay rate parameter both to a level of precision of 1 part in ≈10 5 by comparing the difference between the decay rate in the presence of an antineutrino flux ≈ 3 x 10 12 $\bar{ν}$ cm -2 s -1 and no flux measurements. The experiment was located 6.53 m from the reactor core of the High Flux Isotope Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Two weak interaction decays, one via electron capture and the other via β - decay, were selected because the final state and the time reverse state each contain a neutrino and antineutrino, covering arguments that the antineutrino flux may interact differently or not at all in one of the cases. The $\gamma$ spectra from both decays were collected and analyzed independently. The measured variation in the decay rate parameters are found to be δλ/λ =(0.034 ± 1.38) x10 -5 for $^{54}_{25}$Mn and δλ/λ =(0.67±1.56) x10 -5 for $^{137}_{55}$Cs. These results are consistent with no measurable decay rate parameter variation due to an antineutrino flux, yielding a 68% confidence level upper limit sensitivity for $^{54}_{25}$Mn δλ/λ ≤ 1.31 x 10 -5 or σ ≤ 1.29 x10 -25 cm 2 in cross section and for $^{137}_{55}$Cs δλ/λ ≤ 2.23 x 10 -5 or σ ≤ 5.69 x10 -27 cm 2 . The cross-section upper limit obtained in these null or no observable effect measurements are ≈ 10 4 times more sensitive than past experiments reporting positive results in 54 Mn and 137 Cs. . .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: GES Well 16A(78)-32 and Well 16B(78)-32 Stimulation Seismic Event Catalogs

This dataset contains seismic event catalogs from the hydraulic stimulation of wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site in April 2024. The data was collected by Geo Energy Suisse (GES) using a variety of seismic monitoring technologies, including 3-component (3C) geophones and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems. These technologies were deployed across several locations, including wells 16A, 16B, and Delano-1, with sensor arrays at multiple depths to capture microseismic activity during the stimulations. The catalogs provide both real-time and manually checked seismic event locations, with detailed parameters such as trigger conditions, velocity models, and data acquisition settings. The dataset includes information on the stimulation stages, event rates, and hydraulic injection conditions for each well, with a report detailing the data acquisition configuration and seismic event location methodologies. Users will need to reference the included report for a complete understanding of the sensor network, data processing techniques, and accuracy considerations.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nanocrystal Catalyst Incorporating a Surface Bound Transition Metal to Induce Photocatalytic Sequential Electron Transfer Events

Heterogeneous photocatalysis is less common but can provide unique avenues for inducing novel chemical transformations and can also be utilized for energy transductions, i.e., the energy in the photons can be captured in chemical bonds. Here, we developed a novel heterogeneous photocatalytic system that employs a lead-halide perovskite nanocrystal (NC) to capture photons and direct photogenerated holes to a surface bound transition metal Cu-site, resulting in a N–N heterocyclization reaction. The reaction starts from surface coordinated diamine substrates and requires two subsequent photo-oxidation events per reaction cycle. We establish a photocatalytic pathway that incorporates sequential inner sphere electron transfer events, photons absorbed by the NC generate holes that are sequentially funneled to the Cu-surface site to perform the reaction. The photocatalyst is readily prepared via a controlled cation-exchange reaction and provides new opportunities in photodriven heterogeneous catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud-Resolving ICON Simulations of Secondary Ice Production in Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumuli Observed during M-PACE

Field measurements and modeling studies suggest that secondary ice production (SIP) may close the gap between observed Arctic ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations and ice crystal number concentrations ni. Here, we explore sensitivities with respect to the complexity of different INP parameterizations under the premise that ni is governed by SIP. Idealized, cloud-resolving simulations are performed for the marine cold air outbreak cloud deck sampled during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) with the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model. The impact of the droplet shattering (DS) of raindrops and collisional breakup (BR) in addition to the existing Hallet–Mossop rime splintering mechanism were investigated. Overall, 12 different model experiments (12-h runs) were performed and analyzed. Despite the considerable amount of uncertainty remaining with regard to SIP mechanisms and their process representation in numerical models, we conclude from these experiments that (i) only simulations where DS dominates the SIP signal (potentially amplified by BR) capture observed ice-phase and liquid-phase cloud properties, and (ii) SIP events cluster around the convective outflow region and are structurally linked to mesoscale cloud organization. In addition, interactions with primary nucleation parameterizations of varied complexity were investigated. Here, our simulations show that (i) a stable long-lived mixed-phase cloud (MPC) can be maintained in the absence of primary nucleation once SIP is established, (ii) experiments using a computationally more efficient relaxation-based parameterization of primary nucleation are statistically invariant from simulations considering prognostic INP, and (iii) primary nucleation at cloud-top controls the areal extent of the mixed-phase cloud region, and reduces SIP efficacy via DS due to increased depletion of cloud liquid throughout the entire cloud column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗