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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Modeling of Cryogenic Chilldown in a Complex Channel under Normal and Low Gravity Conditions

Future NASA architectures have baselined cryogenic propulsion systems as well as cryogenic fluid management to support lunar missions and ultimately to support future missions to Mars. These missions will require chilling hardware down prior to engine restart as well as chilling lines and tanks prior to transferring and refueling these propulsion elements in orbit. In lieu of expensive tests conducted on-orbit, accurate predictive computational models of these chilldown processes can be used to reduce system and propellant mass as well as mission risk. To gain confidence in these computational models, appropriate anchoring and validation to experimental data in a relevant environment needs to be performed. Recent ground and sub-orbital flight experiments conducted by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) investigated chilldown of a complex channel resembling a turbopump bearing cavity at low flow rates. This work presents Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model development of the chilldown experiment employing two-phase flow boiling models available in commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+ using Volume of Fluid (VOF) and the traditional Euler-Euler multiphase flow solvers. Comparisons of the numerical and experimental results under normal and low-gravity conditions are presented. An assessment of solid wall temperatures and phase distribution yielded important insights into multiphase solver choice, dependence on gravity environment, and challenges associated with cryogenic flow boiling prediction and validation.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Representation of Wind Stakeholders' End-of-Life Behaviors and Their Impact on Wind Blade Circularity

Wind plant power has seen tremendous growth in the US and worldwide, representing the most significant renewable energy installed capacity besides hydropower. While wind power enables decarbonizing the electricity grid, the rising amount of end-of-life (EOL) wind blades - which are arduous to recycle - present a challenge for landfills if disposed of whole and a missed opportunity to recover valuable composite materials. The circular economy (CE) concept proposes strategies to rethink, reuse and recover products, components, and materials. However, transitioning to a CE implies changing how business models, supply chains, and behaviors deal with products and waste; changes arduously captured with traditional methods used to assess circularity such as life cycle assessment or material flow analysis (MFA). Here we present an agent-based model (ABM) that captures behavioral aspects impacting wind blade circularity in the US. The ABM also accounts for wind plant projects and landfills heterogeneity - a characteristic not easily included in top-down approaches such as MFA, input-output analysis, or system dynamics. Results show that recycling is divided as most recycling facilities are on the eastern side of the country, a challenge that could be alleviated by shredding blades before transportation. Recycling programs from the wind industry could also seed recycling behaviors within wind plant owners. Better yet, new blade designs could increase circularity if original equipment manufacturers accept the risks involved with the investments needed to adapt the production lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Interconnects

Combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) simultaneously combines stress factors of the natural environment (including UV radiation, temperature, humidity, electrical current, and external mechanical force) into a single test that requires fewer modules, fewer chambers, and makes it possible to discover weaknesses in new designs that are not known a-priori. C-AST reduces risk, accelerates time to market, and improves bankability by reducing costly overdesign using test levels not exceeding those seen in the natural environment. This project seeks to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of modern cell interconnect designs with combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) to screen multiple climates along with finite element and failure analysis to determine the potential for a 50-year life. Supporting this, we seek to develop methods of characterization to assess the degradation of interconnects, enable predictive rate models with material forensics and FEA and show C-AST's ability to find interconnect failures and benchmark it relative to other accelerated stress test methods like temperature cycling and cyclic dynamic mechanical loading. Examples of modern interconnect designs covered are Canadian Solar Hetero Technology ribbon enabling closer cell interconnections, SmartWire (eg. Meyer-Berger technology), and shingled cells with new interconnect materials.

C-AST↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk

Abstract Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computational studies of Ras and PI3K

Until recently, experimental techniques in molecular cell biology have been the primary means to investigate biological risk upon space radiation. However, computational modeling provides an alternative theoretical approach, which utilizes various computational tools to simulate proteins, nucleotides, and their interactions. In this study, we are focused on using molecular mechanics (MM) and molecular dynamics (MD) to study the mechanism of protein-protein binding and to estimate the binding free energy between proteins. Ras is a key element in a variety of cell processes, and its activation of phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) is important for survival of transformed cells. Different computational approaches for this particular study are presented to calculate the solvation energies and binding free energies of H-Ras and PI3K. The goal of this study is to establish computational methods to investigate the roles of different proteins played in the cellular responses to space radiation, including modification of protein function through gene mutation, and to support the studies in molecular cell biology and theoretical kinetics models for our risk assessment project.

Ren, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 2

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc. ) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study: Executive summary

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRS1993

Human Transportation System (HTS) study, volume 1

This report summarizes work completed under the Human Transportation System Study. This study was conducted by the New Initiatives Office at JSC with the technical support of Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, Martin Marietta, and Rockwell. The study was designed to generate information on determining the appropriate path to follow for new system development to meet the Nation's space transportation needs. The study evaluates 18 transportation architecture options using a parametric set of mission requirements. These options include use of current systems (e.g., Shuttle, Titan, etc.) as well as proposed systems (e.g., PLS, Single-Stage-to-Orbit, etc.) to assess the impact of various considerations, such as the cost of alternate access, or the benefit of separating people and cargo. The architecture options are compared to each other with six measurable evaluation criteria or attributes. They are: funding profile, human safety, probability of mission success, architecture cost risk, launch schedule confidence, and environmental impact. Values for these attributes are presented for the architecture options, with pertinent conclusions and recommendations.

Unmanned spacecraft↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Technology Maturation of the Stratospheric Projectile Experiment of Entry Dynamics

The supersonic and transonic dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles currently poses large risks in all of NASA’s ongoing entry missions (MSR SRL, MSR EES, and Dragonfly). These projects have allocated millions of dollars to testing and modeling efforts to buy down risk by using the current state-of-the-art (SoA) facilities at NASA’s disposal. While these facilities have heritage in supplying dynamics data to reentry missions, their availability is severely limited – particularly with the high number of concur-rent projects requesting simultaneous testing– and are costly when considering the science density per dollar. None of the current SoA facility methodologies allow the test model to have the dynamics fully develop through a flight relevant free-stream profile and as such require extrapolations with resultant high uncertainties in order to relate the test dynamics to flight expectations. SPEED is a NASA Ames Center Innovation Fund (CIF) project that is developing a highly tailorable and cost-effective test methodology to better assess the dynamic stability of blunt-body reentry vehicles via a stratospheric balloon flight. This is accomplished by dropping a suite of instrumented capsules from a stratospheric balloon to gain a statistically relevant dataset of scaled reentry vehicles in mission relevant free-flight conditions. This presentation will walk through how the test methodology is being implemented specifically for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) geometry in an awarded Flight Opportunities Program (FOP) test flight in early CY24. SPEED Application to MSR: SPEED consists of three main mechanical systems: the Drop Platform, the Projectile, and the test Capsule. SPEED is being developed as a set of guidelines and recommendations for how to test with the proposed Concept of Operations (Conops) since the specific design parameters will vary depending on the specific project’s reference trajectory and entry vehicle design. As such, this presentation will walk through the development time-line as shown in Fig. 2. This is meant to serve as a blueprint for further missions as desired. Mechanical and Avionics Design. The SPEED test platform designed for the MSR-EES capsule geometry with nominal entry parameters has the ability to carry 10 Capsules to altitude instrumented with: 1. 3-Axis Accelerometer 2. IMU 3. Gyroscope 4. Magnetometer 5. Pressure Transducer cruciform 6. Uplook and Horizon Cameras To package the avionics/instrumentation suite, the capsule is approximately 1’ in diameter with the Outer Mold Line (OML) centroid-scaled from the full EES design. The internal volume is gutted and custom-shaped to fit the desired instrumentation suite, as well as to allow for the positioning of ballast mass such that the Center of Gravity is analogous to the flight vehicle. All structural components in the Capsule and Projectile are 3D printed, which significantly reduces the cost of each flight unit to around $1500 including all instrumentation, avionics, and structural components. Flight Conops. The test Capsule is accelerated to the desired altitude and Mach number while stowed in the Projectile, a missile-like vehicle consisting of steel ballast in the nose, a low-drag OML, and an Ejection Mechanism to reliably release the Capsule into the free-flow supersonic conditions. For the MSR-EES design, the capsule employs ~3kg of ballast mass at the nose to accelerate the 1.25kg test Capsule to ~Mach 1.7 at 23km altitude. This requires an initial release altitude of 40km, the quoted limit of a 80kg payload by the FOP-contracted balloon provider. Once the Ejection Mechanism avionics detect the proper conditions, the spring-loaded Ejection Mechanism will release and – guided by the sabot – expose the test Capsule to the desired test conditions for ~5 seconds of free-flight in the supersonic/transonic regimes. Dynamics in the subsonic regime will also be captured with the instrumentation suite with post-flight recovery operations aimed at recovering the high-G-load capable SD cards after the planned hard impact landings. Testing and Development: In the few months the SPEED project has worked the development of MSR-EES flight test, the team has performed lab and drone based testing which this presentation will overview. After the first design phase, the team fabricated Engineering Demonstration Units (EDUs) of all subsystems to perform validation testing shown in Fig. 5. After validation was completed on the subsystem level, a drone-drop test was performed at the recreational flight ceiling of 400ft altitude to assess the SPEED systems in a flight environment. Parameters such as in-flight stability, hard impact landing performance, and avionics performance were quantified and qualified. The FY23 CIF will culminate in a helicopter drop test aboard an Air National Guard Blackhawk. This will prepare the team for the CY24 FOP stratospheric balloon flight that should provide the final verification to begin offering the test platform for mission support. Focus of Presentation: This presentation will outline the technology maturation path of the SPEED implementation to the MSR-EES capsule baseline as well as the details regarding the mechanical system, avionics and instrumentation, and flight operations. Note that a complementary presentation is being submitted for a methodology overview of the SPEED test platform, introducing the testing technique and benefits as well as the full application space of the technology.

pitch damping coefficient↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Field Dynamics and Fault Slip Potential in the Paradox Basin

Abstract The Paradox Basin, straddling Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico is characterized by an intricate amalgamation of evaporites and clastic layers and is dominated by prominent salt walls and related subsurface structures. Our research offers a new examination of the stress distribution across the basin, deriving from continuous and discrete stress measurements conducted in boreholes in the region and focal mechanism analysis, emphasizing variations over salt structures. Integrating Coulomb failure criteria with probabilistic methods, we assess potential fault movements resulting from fluid pressure alterations. Our approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the Paradox Basin's state of stress, showing a continuous change of the maximum horizontal stress orientation from N‐S at the Wasatch Fault Zone to WNW‐ESE in the northern part of the Paradox Basin and to WSW‐ENE in the southern part of the basin. Further East, into the Colorado Plateau and the Uncompahgre Uplift, the S H max orientation becomes E‐W. Decoding stress orientation dynamics has enabled critical insights into fault slip potential, especially in the basin's northern region. The salt wall faults are less likely to slip, and the Paradox Formation's evaporite and clastic rock sequence can serve as a potential low seismic risk target for carbon storage and hydrocarbon extraction.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real Time 3D Observations of Portland Cement Carbonation at CO2 Storage Conditions

Depleted oil reservoirs are considered a viable solution to the global challenge of CO 2 storage. A key concern is whether the wells can be suitably sealed with cement to hinder the escape of CO 2 . Under reservoir conditions, CO 2 is in its supercritical state, and the high pressures and temperatures involved make real-time microscopic observations of cement degradation experimentally challenging. Here, we present an in situ 3D dynamic X-ray micro computed tomography (μ-CT) study of well cement carbonation at realistic reservoir stress, pore-pressure, and temperature conditions. The high-resolution time-lapse 3D images allow monitoring the progress of reaction fronts in Portland cement, including density changes, sample deformation, and mineral precipitation and dissolution. By switching between flow and nonflow conditions of CO 2 -saturated water through cement, we were able to delineate regimes dominated by calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution. For the first time, we demonstrate experimentally the impact of the flow history on CO 2 leakage risk for cement plugging. In-situ μ-CT experiments combined with geochemical modeling provide unique insight into the interactions between CO 2 and cement, potentially helping in assessing the risks of CO 2 storage in geological reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗