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NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme particle events and coronal mass ejections, or predict their fluences and geo-severity in the 24-hrs prior to the event, appears to be no better than 50/50. If the events of the 1859 superstorm serve as a guide, the scope of a contemporary superstorm will most certainly be an awesome event, but one that the vast majority of our other satellite resources may reasonably be expected to survive.

Odenwald, Sten↗

NASA NTRS2005

Radiation Dosimetry via Automated Fluorescence Microscopy

A developmental instrument for assessment of radiation-induced damage in human lymphocytes includes an automated fluorescence microscope equipped with a one or more chargecoupled- device (CCD) video camera(s) and circuitry to digitize the video output. The microscope is also equipped with a three-axis translation stage that includes a rotation stage, and a rotary tray that holds as many as thirty specimen slides. The figure depicts one version of the instrument. Once the slides have been prepared and loaded into the tray, the instrument can operate unattended. A computer controls the operation of the stage, tray, and microscope, and processes the digital fluorescence-image data to recognize and count chromosomes that have been broken, presumably by radiation. The design and method of operation of the instrument exploit fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of metaphase chromosome spreads, which is a technique that has been found to be valuable for monitoring the radiation dose to circulating lymphocytes. In the specific FISH protocol used to prepare specimens for this instrument, metaphase lymphocyte cultures are chosen for high mitotic index and highly condensed chromosomes, then several of the largest chromosomes are labeled with three of four differently colored whole-chromosome-staining dyes. The three dyes, which are used both individually and in various combinations, are fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC), Texas Red (or equivalent), and Cy5 (or equivalent); The fourth dye 4',6-diamidino- 2-phenylindole (DAPI) is used as a counterstain. Under control by the computer, the microscope is automatically focused on the cells and each slide is scanned while the computer analyzes the DAPI-fluorescence images to find the metaphases. Each metaphase field is recentered in the field of view and refocused. Then a four-color image (more precisely, a set of images of the same view in the fluorescent colors of the four dyes) is acquired. By use of pattern-recognition software developed specifically for this instrument, the images in the various colors are processed to recognize the metaphases and count the chromosome fragments of each color within the metaphases. The intermediate results are then further processed to estimate the proportion of cells that have suffered genetic damage. The prototype instrument scans at an average areal rate of 4.7 mm2/h in unattended operation, finding about 14 metaphases per hour. The false-alarm rate is typically less than 3 percent, and the metaphase-miss rate has been estimated to be less than 5 percent. The counts of chromosomes and fragments thereof are 50 to 70 percent accurate.

Castleman, Kenneth R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evidence Report: Risk of Radiation Carcinogenesis

As noted by Durante and Cucinotta (2008), cancer risk caused by exposure to space radiation is now generally considered a main hindrance to interplanetary travel for the following reasons: large uncertainties are associated with the projected cancer risk estimates; no simple and effective countermeasures are available, and significant uncertainties prevent scientists from determining the effectiveness of countermeasures. Optimizing operational parameters such as the length of space missions, crew selection for age and sex, or applying mitigation measures such as radiation shielding or use of biological countermeasures can be used to reduce risk, but these procedures have inherent limitations and are clouded by uncertainties. Space radiation is comprised of high energy protons, neutrons and high charge (Z) and energy (E) nuclei (HZE). The ionization patterns and resulting biological insults of these particles in molecules, cells, and tissues are distinct from typical terrestrial radiation, which is largely X-rays and gamma-rays, and generally characterized as low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are comprised mostly of highly energetic protons with a small component of high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. Prominent HZE nuclei include He, C, O, Ne, Mg, Si, and Fe. GCR ions have median energies near 1 GeV/n, and energies as high as 10 GeV/n make important contributions to the total exposure. Ionizing radiation is a well known carcinogen on Earth (BEIR 2006). The risks of cancer from X-rays and gamma-rays have been established at doses above 50 mSv (5 rem), although there are important uncertainties and on-going scientific debate about cancer risk at lower doses and at low dose rates (<50 mSv/h). The relationship between the early biological effects of HZE nuclei and the probability of cancer in humans is poorly understood, and it is this missing knowledge that leads to significant uncertainties in projecting cancer risks during space exploration (Cucinotta and Durante 2006; Durante and Cucinotta 2008).

Huff, Janice↗

NASA NTRS2020

Small Lunar Base Camp and in Situ Resource Utilization Oxygen Production Facility Power System Comparison

This report examines the power requirements for operating an in situ resource utilization (ISRU) oxygen production system on the lunar surface and a small six-person base camp. The baseline ISRU system produced 1.63 kg/h for a total day and night production rate of 1,154 kg. It was estimated that this plant would require 25.83 kW of power to operate. The base camp power includes auxiliary equipment as well as a communications system. The required power estimate for the base camp was 28.05 kW. This estimation was used to size a power system and determine its mass for meeting these requirements. Three types of power systems were considered: a solar photovoltaic (PV) array system using batteries for energy storage, a PV array system using a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) for energy storage, and a modular 10-kW electrical output power Kilopower reactor system. Three separate cases were examined: a stand-alone ISRU oxygen production system, a base camp, and a combined ISRU oxygen production system and base camp. For the PV array-based system, the RFC energy storage method had a mass advantage over a battery- based energy storage system. For higher power nighttime power operation for all three cases, the RFC system’s specific energy was just over 830 Wh/kg. For the lower power nighttime “keep-alive” level used as part of the Case 1 analysis, the specific energy for the RFC was 456 Wh/kg. Both of these levels are significantly above the specific energy of 200 Wh/kg for the battery. Because of this higher specific energy, the RFC-based system provided significant mass advantages over the battery-based energy storage system. The baseline reactor system utilized shielding and separation distance to meet the desired maximum radiation dose level of 5 rem/yr for personnel operating within the vicinity of the power loads, base camp, and oxygen production facility. There are methods that could potentially be utilized to reduce the shielding requirements and separation distance. Implementing these would reduce the overall system mass for the reactor. Also, optimizing the reactor output to a specific mission would provide benefits in mass at the expense of modularity. The results of the power system comparison between a solar PV array-based system and a Kilopower reactor-based system has shown that for missions required to operate throughout the lunar night at power levels comparable to those used during the day, the reactor-based system provides a significant mass advantage. However, for applications that can meet their mission requirements while only having to operate during the daytime with minimal power required to survive the nighttime, the PV array-based system provides a mass advantage.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparison of Snow Mass Estimates from a Prototype Passive Microwave Snow Algorithm, a Revised Algorithm and a Snow Depth Climatology

While it is recognized that no single snow algorithm is capable of producing accurate global estimates of snow depth, for research purposes it is useful to test an algorithm's performance in different climatic areas in order to see how it responds to a variety of snow conditions. This study is one of the first to develop separate passive microwave snow algorithms for North America and Eurasia by including parameters that consider the effects of variations in forest cover and crystal size on microwave brightness temperature. A new algorithm (GSFC 1996) is compared to a prototype algorithm (Chang et al., 1987) and to a snow depth climatology (SDC), which for this study is considered to be a standard reference or baseline. It is shown that the GSFC 1996 algorithm compares much more favorably to the SDC than does the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm. For example, in North America in February there is a 15% difference between the GSFC 198-96 Algorithm and the SDC, but with the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm the difference is greater than 50%. In Eurasia, also in February, there is only a 1.3% difference between the GSFC 1996 algorithm and the SDC, whereas with the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm the difference is about 20%. As expected, differences tend to be less when the snow cover extent is greater, particularly for Eurasia. The GSFC 1996 algorithm performs better in North America in each month than dose the Chang et al. (1987) algorithm. This is also the case in Eurasia, except in April and May when the Chang et al.(1987) algorithms is in closer accord to the SDC than is GSFC 1996 algorithm.

Foster, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Calculation of the Frequency Distribution of the Energy Deposition in DNA Volumes by Heavy Ions

Radiation quality effects are largely determined by energy deposition in small volumes of characteristic sizes less than 10 nm representative of short-segments of DNA, the DNA nucleosome, or molecules initiating oxidative stress in the nucleus, mitochondria, or extra-cellular matrix. On this scale, qualitatively distinct types of molecular damage are possible for high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation such as heavy ions compared to low LET radiation. Unique types of DNA lesions or oxidative damages are the likely outcome of the energy deposition. The frequency distribution for energy imparted to 1-20 nm targets per unit dose or particle fluence is a useful descriptor and can be evaluated as a function of impact parameter from an ions track. In this work, the simulation of 1-Gy irradiation of a cubic volume of 5 micron by: 1) 450 (1)H(+) ions, 300 MeV; 2) 10 (12)C(6+) ions, 290 MeV/amu and 3) (56)Fe(26+) ions, 1000 MeV/amu was done with the Monte-Carlo simulation code RITRACKS. Cylindrical targets are generated in the irradiated volume, with random orientation. The frequency distribution curves of the energy deposited in the targets is obtained. For small targets (i.e. <25 nm size), the probability of an ion to hit a target is very small; therefore a large number of tracks and targets as well as a large number of histories are necessary to obtain statistically significant results. This simulation is very time-consuming and is difficult to perform by using the original version of RITRACKS. Consequently, the code RITRACKS was adapted to use multiple CPU on a workstation or on a computer cluster. To validate the simulation results, similar calculations were performed using targets with fixed position and orientation, for which experimental data are available [5]. Since the probability of single- and double-strand breaks in DNA as function of energy deposited is well know, the results that were obtained can be used to estimate the yield of DSB, and can be extended to include other targeted or non-target effects.

Plante, Ianik↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Mapping of Underwater UV Irradiances and DNA-Weighted Exposures using TOMS and SeaWiFS Data Products

The global stratospheric ozone-layer depletion results In an increase in biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching the surface and penetrating to ecologically significant depths in natural waters. Such an increase can be estimated on a global scale by combining satellite estimates of UV irradiance at the ocean surface from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument with the SeaWIFS satellite ocean-color measurements in the visible spectral region. In this paper we propose a model of seawater optical properties in the UV spectral region based on the Case I water model in the visible range. The inputs to the model are standard monthly SeaWiFS products: chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490nm. Penetration of solar UV radiation to different depths in open ocean waters is calculated using the RT (radiative transfer) quasi-single scattering approximation (QSSA). The accuracy of the QSSA approximation in the water is tested using more accurate codes. The sensitivity study of the underwater UV irradiance to atmospheric and oceanic optical properties have shown that the main environmental parameters controlling the absolute levels of the UVB (280-320nm) and DNA-weighted irradiance underwater are: solar-zenith angle, cloud transmittance, water optical properties, and total ozone. Weekly maps of underwater UV irradiance and DNA-weighted exposure are calculated using monthly-mean SeaWiFS chlorophyll and diffuse attenuation coefficient products, daily SeaWiFS cloud fraction data, and the TOMS-derived surface UV irradiance daily maps. The final products include global maps of weekly-average UVB irradiance and DNA-weighted daily exposures at 3m and 10m, and depths where the UVB irradiance and DNA-weighted dose rate at local noon are equal to 10% of their surface values.

Vasilkov, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2001

New measurements for hadrontherapy and space radiation: biology

The dual goals of optimizing clinical efficacy of hadrontherapy and determining radiation risk estimates for space research have intersected to a common focus for investigation of the biological effects of charged particles. This paper briefly highlights recent international progress at accelerator facilities engaged in both biological and clinical studies of the effects of particle beams, primarily protons, carbon and iron ions. Basic mechanisms of molecular, cellular and tissue responses continue under investigation for radiations with a range of ionization densities. Late normal tissue effects, including the risk of cancer in particular, are of importance for both research fields. International cooperation has enhanced the rate of progress as evidenced by recent publications. Specific areas of biomedical research related to the biological radiotoxicity of critical organs (especially the central nervous system), individual radiosensitivities to radiation carcinogenesis, and the analysis of effects in mixed radiation fields still require more research. Recommendations for addressing these issues are made.

Review↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2019

Surface erythemal UV irradiance in the continental United States derived from ground-based and OMI observations: quality assessment, trend analysis and sampling issues

Surface full-sky erythemal dose rate (EDR) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) at both satellite overpass time and local noon time is evaluated against ground measurements at 31 sites from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) UV-B Monitoring and Research Program (UVMRP) over the period of 2005–2017. We find that both OMI overpass and solar noon time EDR are highly correlated with the measured counterparts (with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively). Although the comparison statistics are improved with a longer time window (0.5–1.0 h) for pairing surface and OMI measurements, both OMI overpass and local noon time EDRs have 7 % overestimation that is larger than 6 % uncertainty in the ground measurements and show different levels of dependence on solar zenith angle (SZA) and to lesser extent on cloud optical depth. The ratio of EDR between local noon and OMI overpass time is often (95 % in frequency) larger than 1 with a mean of 1.18 in the OMI product; in contrast, the same ratio from surface observation is normally distributed with 22 % of the times less than 1 and a mean of 1.38. This contrast in part reflects the deficiency in the OMI surface UV algorithm that assumes constant atmospheric conditions between overpass and noon time. The probability density functions (PDFs) for both OMI and ground measurements of noontime EDR are in statistically significant agreement, showing dual peaks at ∼20 and ∼200 mW/sq. m, respectively; the latter is lower than 220 mW/ sq. m, the value at which the PDF of daily EDR from ground measurements peaks, and this difference indicates that the largest EDR value for a given day may not often occur at local noon. Lastly, statistically significant positive trends of EDR are found in the northeastern US in OMI data, but opposite trends are found within ground-based data (regardless of sampling for either noontime or daily averages). While positive trends are consistently found between OMI and surface data for EDR over the southern Great Plains (Texas and Oklahoma), their values are within the uncertainty of ground measurements. Overall, no scientifically sound trends can be found among OMI data for aerosol total and absorbing optical depth, cloud optical depth and total ozone to explain coherently the surface UV trends revealed either by OMI or ground-based estimates; these data also cannot reconcile trend differences between the two estimates (of EDR from OMI and surface observations). Future geostationary satellites with better spatiotemporal resolution data should help overcome spatiotemporal sampling issues inherent in OMI data products and therefore improve the estimates of surface UV flux and EDR from space.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗