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At least 451 records · Page 25

Gauge-invariant TMD factorization for Drell-Yan hadronic tensor at small x

The Drell-Yan hadronic tensor for electromagnetic (EM) current in the Sudakov region s?Q2?q2? is obtained with 1Q2 accuracy. In the leading order in Nc the higher-twist quark-quark-gluon TMDs reduce to leading-twist TMDs due to QCD equation of motion. The resulting tensor for unpolarized hadrons is EM gauge-invariant and depends on two leading-twist TMDs: f1 responsible for total DY cross section, and Boer-Mulders function h?1. The order-of-magnitude estimates of angular distributions for DY process seem to agree with LHC results at corresponding kinematics.

Balitsky, Ian↗

Integrating Multiscale Datasets for Monitoring Air Dose Rates in Fukushima - 18437

Six years has passed since the radionuclide release occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. Measurements and monitoring of air dose rates (i.e., ambient dose equivalent rates) in the region around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP have been performed continuously since the accident. Such mapping efforts are essential to protect the public, to guide decontamination efforts, and to plan the return of evacuated residents. An extensive monitoring program has enabled to develop a data-driven environmental decay model for describing and predicting the decay of radiation air dose rates in the environment. However, it has been difficult to quantify the heterogeneity of environmental decay in the regional scale, since spatially extensive airborne survey datasets often have discrepancy with the ground-based measurements and have a larger uncertainty. Recently, a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach was developed to integrate multiscale datasets (i.e., car, walk and airborne surveys), and also to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in high resolution over space. The integrated air dose rate maps have been contributed to planning of the future decontamination and resident's return as well as associated cost. In this study, we aim to extend this approach and predict the area of the evacuation zone in the future. WE coupled the integrated map with the data-driven ecological decay model. Results show that the area of vacuation zone (i.e., the area above 3.8 micro-Sv/yr) will shrink significantly in the next twenty years, and it will be fully contained in the non-residential forested area by 2040. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Experimental Study on the Transfer of Cs, Sr, Pu and Water in Concrete for the Estimation of Contamination - 20085

As part of the 'Nuclear Energy Science and Technology and Human Resources Development project- through concentrating wisdom-by MEXT' in Japan, the major results from the second year of a project on the analysis of radionuclide contamination mechanisms of concrete and the estimation of contamination distribution at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station active during 2018-2020 are presented. The transfer of Cs, Sr, Pu, and water through concrete was studied experimentally. In a saturated condition, the clay did not affect the transfer and Cs penetrated much faster than Sr. In the dried condition, clay retarded Cs transfer. Carbonation of the concrete retarded the transfer of Cs and Sr. Pu was expected to be precipitated immediately in a high pH condition of concrete. Water suction depends on the temperature. Further, the detailed mechanism was analyzed by {sup 1}H-NMR. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating PV power from aggregate power measurements within the distribution grid

The increased integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution grids reduces visibility and situational awareness for utilities because the PV systems' power production is usually not monitored by them. To address this problem, a method called Contextually Supervised Source Separation (CSSS) has been recently adapted for real-time estimation of aggregate PV active power generation from aggregate net active and reactive power measurements at a point in a radially configured distribution grid (e.g., substation). In its original version, PV disaggregation is formulated as an optimization problem that fits linear regression models for the aggregate PV active power generation and true substation active power load. This paper extends the previous work by adding regularization terms in the objective function to capture additional contextual information such as smoothness, by adding new constraints, by introducing new regressors such as ambient temperature, and by investigating the use of time-varying regressors. Furthermore, we perform extensive parametric analysis to study tuning of the objective function weighting factors in a way that maximizes performance and robustness. The proposed PV disaggregation method can be applied to networks with either a single PV system (e.g., megawatt scale) or many distributed ones (e.g., residential scale) connected downstream of the substation. Simulation studies with real field recorded data show that the enhancements of the proposed method reduce disaggregation error by 58% in winter and 35% in summer compared to previous CSSS-based work. When compared against a commonly used transposition model based approach, the reduction in disaggregation error is more pronounced (78% reduction in winter and 45% in summer). Additional simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm is also applicable for PV systems with time-varying power factors. In conclusion, overall, our results show that—with appropriate modeling and tuning—it is possible to accurately estimate the aggregated PV active power generation of a distribution feeder with minimal or no additional sensor deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Delensing the CMB with the cosmic infrared background: the impact of foregrounds

ABSTRACT The most promising avenue for detecting primordial gravitational waves from cosmic inflation is through measurements of degree-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization. This approach must face the challenge posed by gravitational lensing of the CMB, which obscures the signal of interest. Fortunately, the lensing effects can be partially removed by combining high-resolution E-mode measurements with an estimate of the projected matter distribution. For near-future experiments, the best estimate of the latter will arise from co-adding internal reconstructions (derived from the CMB itself) with external tracers such as the cosmic infrared background (CIB). In this work, we characterize how foregrounds impact the delensing procedure when CIB intensity, I, is used as the matter tracer. We find that higher point functions of the CIB and Galactic dust such as 〈BEI〉c and 〈EIEI〉c can, in principle, bias the power spectrum of delensed B-modes. To quantify these, we first estimate the dust residuals in currently available CIB maps and upcoming, foreground-cleaned Simons Observatory CMB data. Then, using non-Gaussian simulations of Galactic dust – extrapolated to the relevant frequencies, assuming the spectral index of polarized dust emission to be fixed at the value determined by Planck – we show that the bias to any primordial signal is small compared to statistical errors for ground-based experiments, but might be significant for space-based experiments probing very large angular scales. However, mitigation techniques based on multifrequency cleaning appear to be very effective. We also show, by means of an analytical model, that the bias arising from the higher point functions of the CIB itself ought to be negligible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mapping Soil Cation‐Exchange Capacity using Bayesian Modeling and Proximal Sensors at the Field Scale

Core Ideas A Bayesian inference approach (INLA‐SPDE) was used to map topsoil and subsoil CEC. DEM, gamma‐ray spectrometer and EM induction data were combined to map CEC. Posterior marginal distributions of the model parameters and responses were estimated. Gamma‐ray data performed best in the topsoil, followed by DUALEM421S and elevation. Elevation data performed best in the subsoil, followed by gamma‐ray and DUALEM421S. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) affects soil fertility, acidity, and structural resilience. This is particularly the case in sugarcane growing areas of Australia because the soil there is sandy (>60%), strongly acidic (pH < 5.5), and strongly sodic (exchangeable sodium percentage [ESP] > 15%). Unfortunately, obtaining information on CEC at the field extent is time‐consuming and expensive. Here, we used a digital soil mapping approach to add value to limited (40) topsoil (0–0.3 m) and subsoil (0.6–0.9 m) CEC information. We first collected proximally sensed ancillary data from three sources, including a digital elevation model (DEM), γ‐ray (γ‐ray) spectrometer (RS700) and electromagnetic (EM) induction instruments. We then use a Bayesian inference approach (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Stochastic Partial Differential Equation, INLA‐SPDE) implemented in R software to model the CEC and ancillary data. Accuracy (RMSE), bias (ME), and concordance (Lin's) of models were also generated from the different sources of ancillary data, either in combination or alone. We concluded, overall, that the INLA–SPDE approach could provide estimations of the posterior marginal distributions of the model parameters as well as the model responses as reported by other researchers. We also concluded that using the ancillary data sources in combination was most accurate (e.g., RMSE = 0.72) to predict CEC, least biased (e.g., ME = 0.07) and had the highest concordance (e.g., Lin's = 0.69) in both the topsoil and subsoil than using the ancillary data alone. The best ancillary data, when used alone for mapping CEC in the topsoil, was γ‐ray spectrometry, followed by EM data and elevation. For subsoil CEC, it was elevation, followed by γ‐ray spectrometry and then soil electrical conductivity (EC a ) data. The maps of the credibility interval (CI) indicated that better predictions were achieved in the topsoil and indicated where improvements in prediction could be achieved in the subsoil.

Li, Nan↗

Revisiting Source Convergence Diagnostics in the KENO Monte Carlo Neutron Transport Codes [Abstract]

Monte Carlo criticality transport codes, which rely on the power iteration procedure, are a fundamental tool for nuclear criticality safety practitioners in assessing the neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) for problems involving fissile material. In these calculations, ensuring the convergence of both the fission source distributions and the k eff estimate for accurate results is crucial. However, a converged k eff estimate does not necessarily mean the fission source distribution is also converged because the fission source and flux distribution may continue to evolve even after k eff convergence. Therefore, most Monte Carlo transport criticality codes now offer various diagnostic tests to assess fission source convergence in addition to the k eff convergence by analyzing the trends of these quantities over multiple generations.

AZURE↗

Constraining the Milky Way Mass Profile with Phase-space Distribution of Satellite Galaxies

We estimate the Milky Way (MW) halo properties using satellite kinematic data including the latest measurements from Gaia DR2. With a simulation-based 6D phase-space distribution function (DF) of satellite kinematics, we can infer halo properties efficiently and without bias, and handle the selection function and measurement errors rigorously in the Bayesian framework. Applying our DF from the EAGLE simulation to 28 satellites, we obtain an MW halo mass of $M={1.23}_{-0.18}^{+0.21}\times {10}^{12}{M}_{\odot }$ and a concentration of $c={9.4}_{-2.1}^{+2.8}$ with the prior based on the M–c relation. The inferred mass profile is consistent with previous measurements but with better precision and reliability due to the improved methodology and data. Potential improvement is illustrated by combining satellite data and stellar rotation curves. Using our EAGLE DF and best-fit MW potential, we provide much more precise estimates of the kinematics for those satellites with uncertain measurements. Compared to the EAGLE DF, which matches the observed satellite kinematics very well, the DF from the semi-analytical model based on the dark-matter-only simulation Millennium II (SAM-MII) over-represents satellites with small radii and velocities. We attribute this difference to less disruption of satellites with small pericenter distances in the SAM-MII simulation. Finally, by varying the disruption rate of such satellites in this simulation, we estimate a ~5% scatter in the inferred MW halo mass among hydrodynamics-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combining a land surface model with groundwater model calibration to assess the impacts of groundwater pumping in a mountainous desert basin

The quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed in arid regions to estimate the impacts of new water withdrawals on the water table. However, for mountainous desert areas, such estimates are highly challenging, due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils, and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with simplified uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employed a data-constrained surface-subsurface process model to provide an ensemble of spatially distributed recharge and underflow estimates using perturbed parameters. Then, the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (PEST) package was used to calibrate the aquifer hydraulic conductivity field in MODFLOW for this ensemble and reject implausible recharge values. This novel dual-model approach, broadly applicable to mountainous arid regions, was designed to maximally exploit available data sources. It can assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns due to pumping. We applied this approach to the Chuckwalla basin in California, USA to determine natural recharge. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was employed as in conventional studies, it would result in regional biases in estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. Here, we also note that the speed of groundwater recovery does not guarantee sustainability: heavy pumping induces large hydraulic gradients that initially recover quickly when pumping is halted, but the system may not ultimately recover to pre-pumping levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive and Cooperative Voltage Control with Probabilistic Load and Solar Generation Forecasting

This paper proposes predictive cooperative voltage control method in a power system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. Cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output of PV inverters is coordinated with operation of voltage regulators (VRs) to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar power generation and the loads is applied to estimate voltage changes which, in turn, are used to set the VR tap positions for preventing large voltage fluctuations with the lowest risk considering the voltage distribution estimation. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on the modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high PV penetration using real insolation data and with constant loads replaced by several different load profiles. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordinated approach for voltage control with cooperative PV and predictive VR controls taking into account probabilistic load and solar power forecasts.

Cooperative Control↗

Dark Energy Survey Y3 results: blending shear and redshift biases in image simulations

ABSTRACT As the statistical power of galaxy weak lensing reaches per cent level precision, large, realistic, and robust simulations are required to calibrate observational systematics, especially given the increased importance of object blending as survey depths increase. To capture the coupled effects of blending in both shear and photometric redshift calibration, we define the effective redshift distribution for lensing, nγ(z), and describe how to estimate it using image simulations. We use an extensive suite of tailored image simulations to characterize the performance of the shear estimation pipeline applied to the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data set. We describe the multiband, multi-epoch simulations, and demonstrate their high level of realism through comparisons to the real DES data. We isolate the effects that generate shear calibration biases by running variations on our fiducial simulation, and find that blending-related effects are the dominant contribution to the mean multiplicative bias of approximately $-2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. By generating simulations with input shear signals that vary with redshift, we calibrate biases in our estimation of the effective redshift distribution, and demonstrate the importance of this approach when blending is present. We provide corrected effective redshift distributions that incorporate statistical and systematic uncertainties, ready for use in DES Year 3 weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying Graph Uncertainty from Communication Data

Graphs are a widely used abstraction for representing a variety of important real-world problems including emulating cyber networks for situational awareness, or studying social networks to understand human interactions or pandemic spread. Communication data is often converted into graphs to help understand social and technical patterns in the underlying communication data. However, prior to this project, little work had been performed analyzing how best to develop graphs from such data. Thus, many critical, national security problems were being performed against graph representations of questionable quality. Herein, we describe our analyses that were precursors to our final statistically grounded technique for creating static graph snapshots from a stream of communication events. The first analyzes the statistical distribution properties of a variety of real-world communication datasets generally fit best by Pareto, log normal, and extreme value distributions. The second derives graph properties that can be estimated given the expected statistical distribution for communication events and the communication interval to be viewed node observability, edge observability, and expected accuracy of node degree. Unfortunately, as that final process is under review for publication, we can't publish it here at this time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Derivation of at-birth neutron energy distribution of americium-beryllium source based on ISO8529 spectral data

In many practical applications, the accuracy of neutron transport calculations depends on an estimate of the energy distribution provided in the source definition. While the energy distribution of neutrons emitted by spontaneous fission sources is well-defined, the spectra of neutrons produced in (α,n) reactions in compound mixtures, such as americium-beryllium (AmBe), depend on the microstructural properties of the source material, which may vary. Although the energy of neutrons produced in nuclear reactions can be calculated from first principles, such computations require detailed knowledge of the key characteristics of the source material, which are often unknown. Here, this study focuses on deriving the at-birth neutron energy distribution for an AmBe source by applying reverse transport calculations to the externally measured high-precision spectrum recommended in the latest revision of the international standard. The derived at-birth spectrum was validated through indirect energy-sensitive neutron emission rate measurements of AmBe sources calibrated at national primary metrology institutions. The resulting at-birth neutron energy distribution serves as essential input data for radiation transport modeling, providing a validated spectrum for broader experimental and computational applications.

AmBe↗

Multi-fidelity Bayesian neural networks: Algorithms and applications

Here we propose a new class of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) that can be trained using noisy data of variable fidelity, and we apply them to learn function approximations as well as to solve inverse problems based on partial differential equations (PDEs). These multi-fidelity BNNs consist of three neural networks: The first is a fully connected neural network, which is trained following the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) method to fit the low-fidelity data; the second is a Bayesian neural network employed to capture the cross-correlation with uncertainty quantification between the low- and high-fidelity data; and the last one is the physics-informed neural network, which encodes the physical laws described by PDEs. For the training of the last two neural networks, we first employ the mean-field variational inference (VI) to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to obtain informative prior distributions for the hyperparameters in the BNNs, and subsequently we use the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate accurately the posterior distributions for the corresponding hyperparameters. We demonstrate the accuracy of the present method using synthetic data as well as real measurements. Specifically, we first approximate a one- and four-dimensional function, and then infer the reaction rates in one- and two-dimensional diffusion-reaction systems. Moreover, we infer the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays using satellite images and in-situ measurements. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the present method can capture both linear and nonlinear correlation between the low- and high-fidelity data adaptively, identify unknown parameters in PDEs, and quantify uncertainties in predictions, given a few scattered noisy high-fidelity data. Finally, we demonstrate that we can effectively and efficiently reduce the uncertainties and hence enhance the prediction accuracy with an active learning approach, using as examples a specific one-dimensional function approximation and an inverse PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Equilibrium distribution of point defects in Fe-Y-O as a typical representative of nanocluster-strengthened alloys

The statistical mechanic approach has been used to estimate the equilibrium defect distribution in a multiphase system by minimizing its free energy using microstructural characteristics and a finite set of defects obtained by first-principles calculations. Recently the approach was extended to take in consideration defects at the interface of the precipitate and matrix. Herein we apply the developed approach to the investigation of the stability of bcc Fe containing yttria, Y 2 O 3 , nanoclusters as a prototype of nanostructured ferritic alloys. It has been obtained that (100)Fe-O interface is unstable with respect to vacancies production. In a contrast to (100)Fe-O interface, the so called Klim interface is stable, i.e. local vacancy concentration at this interface at 600 K is below 10 -12 . It has been demonstrated that due to large defect formation energies the ODS particles are extremely stable and the main defect corresponds to Fe atoms substitute Y in Y 2 O 3 precipitate. Moreover, under thermodynamic equilibrium condition, the preexist vacancies in bulk Fe do not accumulate oxygen atom. The later observation not necessarily forbid the existence of a large amount of preexisting Fe vacancy - oxygen atom clusters at the initial stages of alloy formation far from equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗