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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗
DOE OSTI2016

Drought response transcriptomes are altered in poplar with reduced tonoplast sucrose transporter expression

Transgenic Populus tremula x alba (717-1B4) plants with reduced expression of a tonoplast sucrose efflux transporter, PtaSUT4, exhibit reduced shoot growth compared to wild type (WT) under sustained mild drought. The present study was undertaken to determine whether SUT4-RNAi directly or indirectly altered poplar predisposition and/or response to changes in soil water availability. While sucrose and hexose levels were constitutively elevated in shoot organs, expression responses to drought were most altered in the root tips of SUT4-RNAi plants. Prior to any drought treatment, constitutively elevated transcript levels of abscisic acid biosynthetic genes and bark/vegetative storage proteins suggested altered metabolism in root tips of RNAi plants. Stronger drought-stimulation of stress-inducible genes encoding late-embryogenesis-abundant proteins in transgenic roots was consistent with increased vulnerability to soil drying. Transcript evidence suggested an RNAi effect on intercellular water trafficking by aquaporins in stem xylem during soil drying and recovery. Co-expression network analysis predicted altered integration of abscisic acid sensing/signaling with ethylene and jasmonate sensing/signaling in RNAi compared to WT roots. The overall conclusion is that steepened shoot-root sugar gradient in RNAi plants increased sensitivity of root tips to decreasing soil water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigating drought mortality by incorporating topography into variable forest thinning strategies

Abstract Drought-induced productivity reductions and tree mortality have been increasing in recent decades in forests around the globe. Developing adaptation strategies hinges on an adequate understanding of the mechanisms governing the drought vulnerability of forest stands. Prescribed reduction in stand density has been used as a management tool to reduce water stress and wildfire risk, but the processes that modulate fine-scale variations in plant water supply and water demand are largely missing in ecosystem models. We used an ecohydrological model that couples plant hydraulics with groundwater hydrology to examine how within-stand variations in tree spatial arrangements and topography might mitigate forest vulnerability to drought at individual-tree and stand scales. Our results demonstrated thinning generally ameliorated plant hydraulic stress and improved carbon and water fluxes of the remaining trees, although the effectiveness varied by climate and topography. Variable thinning that adjusted thinning intensity based on topography-mediated water availability achieved higher stand productivity and lower mortality risk, compared to evenly-spaced thinning at comparable intensities. The results from numerical experiments provided mechanistic evidence that topography mediates the effectiveness of thinning and highlighted the need for an explicit consideration of within-stand heterogeneity in trees and abiotic environments when designing forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2015

Growth and physiological responses of isohydric and anisohydric poplars to drought

Understanding how different plants prioritize carbon gain and drought vulnerability under a variable water supply is important for predicting which trees will maximize woody biomass production under different environmental conditions. Here, Populus balsamifera (BS, isohydric genotype), P. simonii (SI, previously uncharacterized stomatal behaviour), and their cross, P. balsamifera x simonii (BSxSI, anisohydric genotype) were studied to assess the physiological basis for biomass accumulation and water-use efficiency across a range of water availabilities. Under ample water, whole plant stomatal conductance (g s ), transpiration (E), and growth rates were higher in anisohydric genotypes (SI and BSxSI) than in isohydric poplars (BS). Under drought, all genotypes regulated the leaf to stem water potential gradient via changes in gs, synchronizing leaf hydraulic conductance (K leaf ) and E: isohydric plants reduced K leaf , g s , and E, whereas anisohydric genotypes maintained high K leaf and E, which reduced both leaf and stem water potentials. Nevertheless, SI poplars reduced their plant hydraulic conductance (K plant ) during water stress and, unlike, BSxSI plants, recovered rapidly from drought. Low gs of the isohydric BS under drought reduced CO 2 assimilation rates and biomass potential under moderate water stress. While anisohydric genotypes had the fastest growth under ample water and higher photosynthetic rates under increasing water stress, isohydric poplars had higher water-use efficiency. Overall, the results indicate three strategies for how closely related biomass species deal with water stress: survival-isohydric (BS), sensitive-anisohydric (BSxSI), and resilience-anisohydric (SI). Lastly, we discuss implications for woody biomass growth, water-use efficiency, and survival under variable environmental conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. Lastly, these results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Drought responsive gene expression regulatory divergence between upland and lowland ecotypes of a perennial C 4 grass

Climatic adaptation is an example of a genotype-by-environment interaction (G×E) of fitness. Selection upon gene expression regulatory variation can contribute to adaptive phenotypic diversity; however, surprisingly few studies have examined how genome-wide patterns of gene expression G×E are manifested in response to environmental stress and other selective agents that cause climatic adaptation. Here, we characterize drought-responsive expression divergence between upland (drought-adapted) and lowland (mesic) ecotypes of the perennial C 4 grass, Panicum hallii, in natural field conditions. Overall, we find that cis-regulatory elements contributed to gene expression divergence across 47% of genes, 7.2% of which exhibit drought-responsive G×E. While less well-represented, we observe 1294 genes (7.8%) with trans effects. Trans-by-environment interactions are weaker and much less common than cis G×E, occurring in only 0.7% of trans-regulated genes. Finally, gene expression heterosis is highly enriched in expression phenotypes with significant G×E. As such, modes of inheritance that drive heterosis, such as dominance or overdominance, may be common among G×E genes. Interestingly, motifs specific to drought-responsive transcription factors are highly enriched in the promoters of genes exhibiting G×E and trans regulation, indicating that expression G×E and heterosis may result from the evolution of transcription factors or their binding sites. P. hallii serves as the genomic model for its close relative and emerging biofuel crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). Accordingly, the results here not only aid in the discovery of the genetic mechanisms that underlie local adaptation but also provide a foundation to improve switchgrass yield under water-limited conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear drought plasticity reveals intraspecific diversity in a dominant grass species

Abstract Intraspecific diversity of dominant species in native plant communities can modulate ecosystem function under both optimal and stressful conditions. Yet, few genotype by environment interaction studies quantify differences in the shape of plasticity functions or phenotypic breakpoints across genotypes in natural populations. Using three genotypes with a history of drought selection, we performed a greenhouse study on the dominant tallgrass prairie species Andropogon gerardii . We investigated phenotypic plasticity and recovery differences among genotypes across a water availability gradient, measuring growth‐related, instantaneous and cumulative phenotypes. To further understand genotype by environment effects, we quantified plasticity functions and breakpoints among genotypes. Like other studies, we found strong evidence for phenotypic and plasticity differences among genotypes. However, we also found nonlinear plasticity functions and breakpoints were common across phenotypes, especially relative growth rates, biomass allocation and root architecture. Drought selected genotypes were also more likely to flower during recovery, but all genotypes were resilient to drought across treatments. We demonstrate that plasticity functions may help explain intraspecific diversity, patterns of selection and nonlinear community responses to more variable rainfall within an experimental population. In particular, plasticity functions can help disentangle drought/variability tolerance versus acquisitive strategies. A better understanding of intraspecific diversity in this grass species will provide more mechanistic insight into its ability to buffer ecosystem changes and provide resiliency in the tallgrass prairie under future droughts. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Hoffman, Ava M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ecosystem wilting point defines drought response and recovery of a Quercus‐Carya forest

Abstract Soil and atmospheric droughts increasingly threaten plant survival and productivity around the world. Yet, conceptual gaps constrain our ability to predict ecosystem‐scale drought impacts under climate change. Here, we introduce the ecosystem wilting point (Ψ EWP ), a property that integrates the drought response of an ecosystem's plant community across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Specifically, Ψ EWP defines a threshold below which the capacity of the root system to extract soil water and the ability of the leaves to maintain stomatal function are strongly diminished. We combined ecosystem flux and leaf water potential measurements to derive the Ψ EWP of a Quercus‐Carya forest from an “ecosystem pressure–volume (PV) curve,” which is analogous to the tissue‐level technique. When community predawn leaf water potential (Ψ pd ) was above Ψ EWP (=−2.0 MPa), the forest was highly responsive to environmental dynamics. When Ψ pd fell below Ψ EWP , the forest became insensitive to environmental variation and was a net source of carbon dioxide for nearly 2 months. Thus, Ψ EWP is a threshold defining marked shifts in ecosystem functional state. Though there was rainfall‐induced recovery of ecosystem gas exchange following soaking rains, a legacy of structural and physiological damage inhibited canopy photosynthetic capacity. Although over 16 growing seasons, only 10% of Ψ pd observations fell below Ψ EWP , the forest is commonly only 2–4 weeks of intense drought away from reaching Ψ EWP , and thus highly reliant on frequent rainfall to replenish the soil water supply. We propose, based on a bottom‐up analysis of root density profiles and soil moisture characteristic curves, that soil water acquisition capacity is the major determinant of Ψ EWP , and species in an ecosystem require compatible leaf‐level traits such as turgor loss point so that leaf wilting is coordinated with the inability to extract further water from the soil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Convergence in drought stress, but a divergence of climatic drivers across a latitudinal gradient in a temperate broadleaf forest

Abstract Aim Information about climate stressors on tree growth is needed in order to assess the impacts of global change on forest ecosystems. Broad‐scale patterns of climatic limitations on tree growth remain poorly described across eastern North American deciduous forests. We examined the response of broadleaf tree species to climate in relation to their taxonomy, functional traits and geographical location. Location Eastern North America (32–45° N; 70–88° W). Methods We used a network of 86 tree‐ring width chronologies from eight species that cover a wide range of ecological and climatic conditions. Species were analysed individually or combined according to taxa and wood anatomical functional traits. We identified climate stressors through correlations between growth and climate (from 1916 to 1996). We also explored patterns in the climate responses of these species with two clustering techniques. Results We found strong correlations between water availability and growth for all species. With few exceptions, this drought stress was independent of taxonomy or wood anatomical functional group. Depending on latitude, however, different climatic drivers governed this common drought response. In the cool, northern part of our network, forest growth was most strongly limited by precipitation variability, whereas maximum temperature was a stronger limiting factor than precipitation in the wetter and warmer southern parts. Main conclusions Our study highlights the sensitivity of broadleaf temperate forests to drought stress at annual to decadal scales, with few species‐specific differences. The roles of temperature and precipitation on drought‐sensitivity differ at opposing ends of our subcontinental‐scale network. The impact of future environmental changes on these forests will ultimately depend on the balance between temperature and precipitation changes across this latitudinal gradient.

Martin‐Benito, Dario↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conifers depend on established roots during drought: results from a coupled model of carbon allocation and hydraulics

Trees may survive prolonged droughts by shifting water uptake to reliable water sources, but it is unknown if the dominant mechanism involves activating existing roots or growing new roots during drought, or some combination of the two. To gain mechanistic insights on this unknown, a dynamic root-hydraulic modeling framework was developed that set up a feedback between hydraulic controls over carbon allocation and the role of root growth on soil–plant hydraulics. The new model was tested using a 5 yr drought/heat field experiment on an established pi~non-juniper stand with root access to bedrock groundwater. Owing to the high carbon cost per unit root area, modeled trees initialized without adequate bedrock groundwater access experienced potentially lethal declines in water potential, while all of the experimental trees maintained nonlethal water potentials. Simulated trees were unable to grow roots rapidly enough to mediate the hydraulic stress, particularly during warm droughts. Alternatively, modeled trees initiated with root access to bedrock groundwater matched the hydraulics of the experimental trees by increasing their water uptake from bedrock groundwater when soil layers dried out. Therefore, the modeling framework identified a critical mechanism for drought response that required trees to shift water uptake among existing roots rather than growing new roots.

Mackay, D. Scott↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convergent evolution of tree hydraulic traits in Amazonian habitats: implications for community assemblage and vulnerability to drought

Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species-specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white-sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P 50 values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle–associated fungi

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Holo-Omics disentangle drought response and biotic interactions among plant, endophyte and pathogen

Holo-omics provide a novel opportunity to study the interactions among fungi from different functional guilds in host plants in field conditions. We address the entangled responses of plant pathogenic and endophytic fungi associated with sorghum when droughted through the assembly of the most abundant fungal, endophyte genome from rhizospheric metagenomic sequences followed by a comparison of its metatranscriptome with the host plant metabolome and transcriptome. The rise in relative abundance of endophytic Acremonium persicinum (operational taxonomic unit 5 (OTU5)) in drought co-occurs with a rise in fungal membrane dynamics and plant metabolites, led by ethanolamine, a key phospholipid membrane component. The negative association between endophytic A. persicinum (OTU5) and plant pathogenic fungi co-occurs with a rise in expression of the endophyte's biosynthetic gene clusters coding for secondary compounds. Endophytic A. persicinum (OTU5) and plant pathogenic fungi are negatively associated under preflowering drought but not under postflowering drought, likely a consequence of variation in fungal fitness responses to changes in the availability of water and niche space caused by plant maturation over the growing season. Our findings suggest that the dynamic biotic interactions among host, beneficial and harmful microbiota in a changing environment can be disentangled by a blending of field observation, laboratory validation, holo-omics and ecological modelling.

Chen, Peilin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California

Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. This report provides a drought and extreme heat impacts assessment of data centers in this region. Expert solicitation of data center experts enabled a tailored approach to this report. We identify the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrate how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. We emphasize the importance of including future climate projections into data center design and planning. This report is an important first step towards building an effective extreme heat and drought adaptation strategy for data centers in Northern California. While our geographical focus in this report is Northern California, many findings in this report are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Issues in establishing causes of the 1988 drought over North America

The causes and physical mechanisms involved in the 1988 North American drought are investigated. The issue of when the drought circulation anomalies developed and their relation to changes in tropical Pacific SSTs is examined. The evolution of the Pacific SSTs and tropical convection, as revealed by outgoing LW radiation, is shown to be consistent with the development of the conditions favorable for initiating the drought circulation pattern in April through June of 1988. On the equator at 110 deg W, SST anomalies exceeded -2.75 C only in April, May, and June, and were largest (-4.1 C) in May 1988. Diagnostic calculations of atmospheric diabatic heating confirm that atmospheric heating anomalies existed in the tropical Pacific in association with the major SST anomalies during this time. It is argued that feedback-caused soil moisture anomalies were secondary sources for the drought circulation but could not have been the primary instigator.

Trenberth, Kevin E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vegetation stress as a feedback mechanism in midlatitude drought

An atmospheric general circulation model with land surface properties represented by the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model is used to investigate the effect of soil moisture and vegetation stress on drought in the mid-latitudes. An idealized land-sea distribution with simple topography is used to remove as many external sources of climate variation as possible. The land consists of a single, flat, rectangular continent covered with prairie vegetation and centered on 44 deg N of an aqua planet. A control integration of 4 years is performed, and several sets of seasonal anomaly integrations are made to test the sensitivity of seasonal climate to low initial (1 April) soil moisture and dormant vegetation like what would occur during a severe drought. It is found that the inclusion of dormant vegetation during the spring and early summer greatly reduces evapotranspiration by eliminating transpiration. This affects local climate more strongly as summer progresses. Low initial soil moisture, combined with dormant vegetation, leads to a severe drought. The reduction in precipitation is much greater in magnitude than that due to low soil moisture alone, and greater than the sum of the effects computed separately. Although the short-term drought is more severe, the dormancy of the vegetation prevents further depletion of moisture in the root zone of the soil, so soil moisture begins to rebound toward the middle of summer.

Dirmeyer, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

On Simulating the Mid-western-us Drought of 1988 with a GCM

The primary cause of the midwestern North American drought in the summer of 1988 has been identified to be the La Nina SST anomalies. Yet with the SST anomalies prescribed, this drought has not been simulated satisfactorily by any general circulation model. Seven simulation-experiments, each containing an ensemble of 4-sets of simulations, were conducted with the GEOS GCM for both 1987 and 1988. All simulations started from January 1 and continued through the end of August. In the first baseline case, Case 1, only the SST anomalies and some vegetation parameters were prescribed, while everything else (such as soil moisture, snow-cover, and clouds) was interactive. The GCM did produce some of the circulation features of a drought over North America, but they could only be identified on the planetary scales. The 1988 minus 1987 precipitation differences show that the GCM was successful in simulating reduced precipitation in the mid-west, but the accompanying circulation anomalies were not well simulated, leading one to infer that the GCM has simulated the drought for the wrong reason. To isolate the causes for this unremarkable circulation, analyzed winds and soil moisture were prescribed in Case 2 and Case 3 as continuous updates by direct replacement of the GCM-predicted fields. These cases show that a large number of simulation biases emanate from wind biases that are carried into the North American region from surroundings regions. Inclusion of soil moisture also helps to ameliorate the strong feedback, perhaps even stronger than that of the real atmosphere, between soil moisture and precipitation. Case 2 simulated one type of surface temperature anomaly pattern, whereas Case 3 with the prescribed soil moisture produced another.

Sud, Y. C.↗