Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Consensus”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

Hybrid Collaborative Learning for Classification and Clustering in Sensor Networks

Traditionally, nodes in a sensor network simply collect data and then pass it on to a centralized node that archives, distributes, and possibly analyzes the data. However, analysis at the individual nodes could enable faster detection of anomalies or other interesting events as well as faster responses, such as sending out alerts or increasing the data collection rate. There is an additional opportunity for increased performance if learners at individual nodes can communicate with their neighbors. In previous work, methods were developed by which classification algorithms deployed at sensor nodes can communicate information about event labels to each other, building on prior work with co-training, self-training, and active learning. The idea of collaborative learning was extended to function for clustering algorithms as well, similar to ideas from penta-training and consensus clustering. However, collaboration between these learner types had not been explored. A new protocol was developed by which classifiers and clusterers can share key information about their observations and conclusions as they learn. This is an active collaboration in which learners of either type can query their neighbors for information that they then use to re-train or re-learn the concept they are studying. The protocol also supports broadcasts from the classifiers and clusterers to the rest of the network to announce new discoveries. Classifiers observe an event and assign it a label (type). Clusterers instead group observations into clusters without assigning them a label, and they collaborate in terms of pairwise constraints between two events [same-cluster (mustlink) or different-cluster (cannot-link)]. Fundamentally, these two learner types speak different languages. To bridge this gap, the new communication protocol provides four types of exchanges: hybrid queries for information, hybrid "broadcasts" of learned information, each specified for classifiers-to-clusterers, and clusterers-to-classifiers. The new capability has the potential to greatly expand the in situ analysis abilities of sensor networks. Classifiers seeking to categorize incoming data into different types of events can operate in tandem with clusterers that are sensitive to the occurrence of new kinds of events not known to the classifiers. In contrast to current approaches that treat these operations as independent components, a hybrid collaborative learning system can enable them to learn from each other.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

The Second Phase of the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2): Impact of Land Initialization on Subseasonal Forecasts

The recently-completed second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the multi-institutional numerical experiment is described, along with a determination and characterization of multi-model "consensus" skill. The models show modest but significant land-derived skill in predicting air temperatures out to two months, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

Koster, Randal↗

Opportunities for Cooperation: Themis and RBSP

This document outlines potential joint scientific studies involving the THEMIS and RBSP missions as a function of mission phase from the commissioning of RBSP in August 2012 through the end of its prime mission in the summer of 2014. It describes consensus recommendations for interspace craft separation, fast survey and burst mode strategies for THEMIS that will enable the two missions to achieve and exceed their common objectives. An appendix describes the need for careful intercalibration of THEMIS and RBSP particle observations.

Sibeck, D. G.↗

Demonstration/Validation of Environmentally-Preferable Coatings for Launch Facilities

Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is responsible for a number of facilities/structures with metallic structural and non-structural components in a highly corrosive environment. Metals require periodic maintenance activity to guard against the insidious effects of corrosion and thus ensure that structures meet or exceed design or performance life. The standard practice for protecting metallic substrates in atmospheric environments is the application of an applied coating system. Applied coating systems work via a variety of methods (barrier, galvanic and/or inhibitor) and adhere to the substrate through a combination of chemical and physical bonds. Maintenance at KSC and other NASA Centers is governed by NASA-STD-50088 (Protective Coating of Carbon Steel, Stainless Steel, and Aluminum on Launch Structures, Facilities, and Ground Support Equipment) which establishes practices for the protective coating of ground support equipment and related facilities used by or for NASA programs and projects. The Standard is for the design of non-flight hardware used to support the operations of receiving, transportation, handling, assembly, inspection, test, checkout, service, and launch of space vehicles and payloads at NASA launch, landing, or retrieval sites. These criteria and practices contained within the Standard may be used for items used at the manufacturing, development, and test sites upstream of the launch, landing, or retrieval sites. The objective of this effort is to demonstrate and validate environmentally-preferable alternatives in accordance with NASA-STD-50088 and KSC requirements which can then be added to the Approved Products List. This Test Protocol contains the critical requirements and tests necessary to qualify alternatives for structural steel applications. These tests were derived from engineering, performance, and operational impact (supportability) requirements defined by a consensus of KSC participants. A Test Report will document the results of the testing as well as any test modifications made during the execution of the testing. Users of this Test Protocol should check the project's Test Report for additional test details or minor modifications that may have been necessary in the execution of the testing. The technical stakeholders will have agreed upon test procedures modifications documented in the Test Report.

Lewis, Pattie↗

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) Hardware Commonality for Exploration Vehicles

In August 2011, the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) technical community, along with associated stakeholders, held a workshop to review NASA s plans for Exploration missions and vehicles with two objectives: revisit the Exploration Atmospheres Working Group (EAWG) findings from 2006, and discuss preliminary ECLSS architecture concepts and technology choices for Exploration vehicles, identifying areas for potential common hardware or technologies to be utilized. Key considerations for selection of vehicle design total pressure and percent oxygen include operational concepts for extravehicular activity (EVA) and prebreathe protocols, materials flammability, and controllability within pressure and oxygen ranges. New data for these areas since the 2006 study were presented and discussed, and the community reached consensus on conclusions and recommendations for target design pressures for each Exploration vehicle concept. For the commonality study, the workshop identified many areas of potential commonality across the Exploration vehicles as well as with heritage International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle hardware. Of the 36 ECLSS functions reviewed, 16 were considered to have strong potential for commonality, 13 were considered to have some potential commonality, and 7 were considered to have limited potential for commonality due to unique requirements or lack of sufficient heritage hardware. These findings, which will be utilized in architecture studies and budget exercises going forward, are presented in detail.

Carrasquillo, Robyn↗

Groundbreaking Mars Sample Return for Science and Human Exploration

Partnerships between science and human exploration have recent heritage for the Moon (Lunar Precursor Robotics Program, LPRP) and nearearth objects (Exploration Precursor Robotics Program, xPRP). Both programs spent appreciable time and effort determining measurements needed or desired before human missions to these destinations. These measurements may be crucial to human health or spacecraft design, or may be desired to better optimize systems designs such as spacesuits or operations. Both LPRP and xPRP recommended measurements from orbit, by landed missions and by sample return. LPRP conducted the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) missions, providing high-resolution visible imagery, surface and subsurface temperatures, global topography, mapping of possible water ice deposits, and the biological effects of radiation [1]. LPRP also initiated a landed mission to provide dust and regolith properties, local lighting conditions, assessment of resources, and demonstration of precision landing [2]. This mission was canceled in 2006 due to funding shortfalls. For the Moon, adequate samples of rocks and regolith were returned by the Apollo and Luna programs to conduct needed investigations. Many near-earth asteroids (NEAs) have been observed from the Earth and several have been more extensively characterized by close-flying missions and landings (NEAR, Hayabusa, Rosetta). The current Joint Robotic Precursor Activity program is considering activities such as partnering with the New Frontiers mission OSIRIS-Rex to visit a NEA and return a sample to the Earth. However, a strong consensus of the NEO User Team within xPRP was that a dedicated mission to the asteroid targeted by humans is required [3], ideally including regolith sample return for more extensive characterization and testing on the Earth.

Cohen, Barbara↗

Siderophile Element Constraints on the Conditions of Core Formation in Mars

Siderophile element concentrations in planetary basalts and mantle samples have been used to estimate conditions of core formation for many years and have included applications to Earth, Moon, Mars and asteroid 4 Vesta [1]. For Earth, we have samples of mantle and a diverse collection of mantle melts which have provided a mature understanding of the how to reconstruct the concentration of siderophile elements in mantle materials, from only concentrations in surficial basalt (e.g., [2]). This approach has led to the consensus views that Earth underwent an early magma ocean stage to pressures of 40-50 GPa (e.g., [3,4]), Moon melted extensively and formed a small (approx. 2 mass %) metallic core [5], and 4 Vesta contains a metallic core that is approximately 18 mass % [6,7]. Based on new data from newly found meteorites, robotic spacecraft, and experimental partitioning studies, [8] showed that eight siderophile elements (Ni, Co, Mo, W, Ga, P, V and Cr) are consistent with equilibration of a 20 mass% S-rich metallic core with the mantle at pressures of 14 +/- 3 GPa. We aim to test this rather simple scenario with additional analyses of meteorites for a wide range of siderophile elements, and application of new experimental data for the volatile siderophile and highly siderophile elements.

Righter, K.↗

Aeromedical Disposition and Waiver Consideration for ISS Crewmembers

Aeromedical certification of astronauts and cosmonauts traveling to the International Space Station is a multi?-tiered process that involv es standards agreed to by the partner agencies, and participation by the individual agency aeromedical boards and a multilateral space medi cine board. Medical standards are updated continually by a multilater al working group. The boards operate by consensus and strive to achie ve effective decision making through experience, medical judgment, medical evidence and risk modeling. The aim of the certification process is to minimize the risk to the ISS program of loss of mission object ives due to human health issues.

Taddeo, Terrance↗

Imagine Moving Off the Planet

Moving off the planet will be a defining moment of this century as landing on the Moon was in the last. For that to happen for humans to go where humans cannot go-- simulation is the sole solution. NASA supports simulation for life-cycle activities: design, analysis, test, checkout, operations, review and training. We contemplate time spans of a century and more, teams dispersed to different planets and the need for systems that endure or adapt as missions, teams and technology change. Without imagination such goals are impossible. But with imagination we can go outside our present perception of reality to think about and take action on what has been, is and, especially, what might be. Consciously maturing an imagined, possibly workable, idea through framing it to optimization to design, and building the product provides us with a new approach to innovation and simulation fidelity. We address options, analyze, test and make improvements in how we think and work. Each step includes increasingly exact information about costs, schedule, who will be needed, where, when and how. NASA i integrating such thinking into its Exploration Product Realization Hierarchy for simulation and analysis, test and verification, and stimulus response goals. Technically NASA follows a timeline of studies, analysis, definition, design, development and operations with concurrent documentation. We have matched this Product Realization Hierarchy with a continuum from image to realization that incorporates commitment, current and needed research and communication to ensure superior and creative problem solving as well as advances in simulation. One result is a new approach to collaborative systems. Another is a distributed observer network prototyped using game engine technology bringing advanced 3-D simulation of a simulation to the desktop enabling people to develop shared consensus of its meaning. Much of the value of simulation comes from developing in people their ability to make good decisions and reflexes supporting impressive achievement. Synthesizing imagination systematically into our work - and thus our success - is a challenge. NASA engineers have inventive minds, and the task is determining how best to enable them to devise the simulation and other innovations that will make a story so clear and so intellectually sound that people can carry out the mission for 50-100 years. This demands skills and knowledge traditionally under-respected and under-represented in technology organizations. But we are beginning to see that the process encourages efficiency and enables us to attain more effective results. We have to elicit imaginative, intelligent and effective ways to make better use than ever of the minds we have and will have available. We have to accept the challenge to accomplish tasks among dispersed interdisciplinary teams who must overcome changing priorities and technology, time and distance in order to maximize interactivity and innovation as never before. Attention to the process of innovation is a practical means to increase the efficiency of our intelligence. We have an obligation to reexamine and improve the process by which we approach and exercise innovation as we accept the charge to move off the planet.

Elfrey, Priscilla R.↗

An Electric Propulsion "Shepherd" for Active Debris Removal that Utilizes Ambient Gas as Propellant

There is a growing consensus among the space debris technical community that limiting the long ]term growth of debris in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) requires that space users limit the accumulation of mass in orbit. This is partially accomplished by mitigation measures for current and future LEO systems, but there is now interest in removing mass that has already accumulated in LEO from more than 50 years of space activity (termed "Active Debris Removal", or ADR). Many ADR proposals face complex technical issues of how to grapple with uncooperative targets. Some researchers have suggested the use of conventional ion thrusters to gently "blow" on objects to gradually change their orbits, without ever having to come into physical contact with the target. The chief drawback with these methods is the cost per object removed. Typically, a space "tug" or an ion-drive "shepherd" can only remove a few objects per mission due to limited propellant. Unless a costeffective way that removes tens of objects per mission can be found, it is not clear that any of the ideas so far proposed will be economically viable. In this paper, a modified version of the ion-drive "shepherd" is proposed that uses ambient atmospheric gases in LEO as propellant for the ion drives. This method has the potential to greatly extend the operational lifetime of an ADR mission, as the only mission limit is the lifetime of the components of the satellite itself, not on its fuel supply. An ambient-gas ion-drive "shepherd" would the local atmospheric drag on an object by ionizing and accelerating the ambient gas the target would have encountered anyway, thereby hastening its decay. Also, the "shepherd" satellite itself has a great deal of flexibility to maneuver back to high altitude and rendezvous with its next target using the ion drive not limited by fuel supply. However, the amount of available ambient gas is closely tied to the altitude of the spacecraft. It may be possible to use a "hybrid" approach that supplements high-altitude ion-drive operations with stored gas, and transitions to ambient gas at lower altitudes. This paper will include realistic numbers on the estimated times needed to deorbit objects from different orbit regimes using drives that either partially or completely take advantage of ambient gas. It will conclude with recommendations on whether this is a viable candidate for future ADR efforts.

Matney, Mark J.↗

Flight Crew Workload, Acceptability, and Performance When Using Data Comm in a High-Density Terminal Area Simulation

This document describes a collaborative FAA/NASA experiment using 22 commercial airline pilots to determine the effect of using Data Comm to issue messages during busy, terminal area operations. Four conditions were defined that span current day to future flight deck equipage: Voice communication only, Data Comm only, Data Comm with Moving Map Display, and Data Comm with Moving Map displaying taxi route. Each condition was used in an arrival and a departure scenario at Boston Logan Airport. Of particular interest was the flight crew response to D-TAXI, the use of Data Comm by Air Traffic Control (ATC) to send taxi instructions. Quantitative data was collected on subject reaction time, flight technical error, operational errors, and eye tracking information. Questionnaires collected subjective feedback on workload, situation awareness, and acceptability to the flight crew for using Data Comm in a busy terminal area. Results showed that 95% of the Data Comm messages were responded to by the flight crew within one minute and 97% of the messages within two minutes. However, post experiment debrief comments revealed almost unanimous consensus that two minutes was a reasonable expectation for crew response. Flight crews reported that Expected D-TAXI messages were useful, and employment of these messages acceptable at all altitude bands evaluated during arrival scenarios. Results also indicate that the use of Data Comm for all evaluated message types in the terminal area was acceptable during surface operations, and during arrivals at any altitude above the Final Approach Fix, in terms of response time, workload, situation awareness, and flight technical performance. The flight crew reported the use of Data Comm as implemented in this experiment as unacceptable in two instances: in clearances to cross an active runway, and D-TAXI messages between the Final Approach Fix and 80 knots during landing roll. Critical cockpit tasks and the urgency of out-the window scan made the additional head down time to respond to Data Comm messages undesirable during these events. However, most crews also stated that Data Comm messages without an accompanying audio chime and no expectation of an immediate response could be acceptable even during these events.

Norman, R. Michael↗

Autonomous Formations of Multi-Agent Systems

Autonomous formation control of multi-agent dynamic systems has a number of applications that include ground-based and aerial robots and satellite formations. For air vehicles, formation flight ("flocking") has the potential to significantly increase airspace utilization as well as fuel efficiency. This presentation addresses two main problems in multi-agent formations: optimal role assignment to minimize the total cost (e.g., combined distance traveled by all agents); and maintaining formation geometry during flock motion. The Kuhn-Munkres ("Hungarian") algorithm is used for optimal assignment, and consensus-based leader-follower type control architecture is used to maintain formation shape despite the leader s independent movements. The methods are demonstrated by animated simulations.

Dhali, Sanjana↗

Generalized Ocean Color Inversion Model for Retrieving Marine Inherent Optical Properties

Ocean color measured from satellites provides daily, global estimates of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). Semi-analytical algorithms (SAAs) provide one mechanism for inverting the color of the water observed by the satellite into IOPs. While numerous SAAs exist, most are similarly constructed and few are appropriately parameterized for all water masses for all seasons. To initiate community-wide discussion of these limitations, NASA organized two workshops that deconstructed SAAs to identify similarities and uniqueness and to progress toward consensus on a unified SAA. This effort resulted in the development of the generalized IOP (GIOP) model software that allows for the construction of different SAAs at runtime by selection from an assortment of model parameterizations. As such, GIOP permits isolation and evaluation of specific modeling assumptions, construction of SAAs, development of regionally tuned SAAs, and execution of ensemble inversion modeling. Working groups associated with the workshops proposed a preliminary default configuration for GIOP (GIOP-DC), with alternative model parameterizations and features defined for subsequent evaluation. In this paper, we: (1) describe the theoretical basis of GIOP; (2) present GIOP-DC and verify its comparable performance to other popular SAAs using both in situ and synthetic data sets; and, (3) quantify the sensitivities of their output to their parameterization. We use the latter to develop a hierarchical sensitivity of SAAs to various model parameterizations, to identify components of SAAs that merit focus in future research, and to provide material for discussion on algorithm uncertainties and future ensemble applications.

Werdell, P. Jeremy↗

Future Challenges in Managing Human Health and Performance Risks for Space Flight

The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. To enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration, we must pool global resources to understand and mitigate human health & performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. Consensus on the largest risks to humans during exploration is required to develop an integrated approach to mitigating risks. International collaboration in human space flight research will focus research on characterizing the effects of spaceflight on humans and the development of countermeasures or systems. Sharing existing data internationally will facilitate high quality research and sufficient power to make sound recommendations. Efficient utilization of ISS and unique ground-based analog facilities allows greater progress. Finally, a means to share results of human research in time to influence decisions for follow-on research, system design, new countermeasures and medical practices should be developed. Although formidable barriers to overcome, International working groups are working to define the risks, establish international research opportunities, share data among partners, share flight hardware and unique analog facilities, and establish forums for timely exchange of results. Representatives from the ISS partnership research and medical communities developed a list of the top ten human health & performance risks and their impact on exploration missions. They also drafted a multilateral data sharing plan to establish guidelines and principles for sharing human spaceflight data. Other working groups are also developing methods to promote international research solicitations. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared development of space flight research and medical hardware continues. Establishing a forum for exchange of results between researchers, aerospace physicians and program managers takes careful consideration of researcher concerns and decision maker needs. Active participation by researchers in the development of this forum is essential, and the benefit can be tremendous. The ability to rapidly respond to research results without compromising publication rights and intellectual property will facilitate timely reduction in human health and performance risks in support of international exploration missions.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗

Petrologic and Chemical Characterization of a Suite of Antarctic Diogenites

The origin of diogenites, ultramafic cumulates related to eucrites, is an unresolved problem [1]. Most diogenites are orthopyroxenites, a few are harzburgites [2], and some are transitional to cumulate eucrites [1, 3]. Cumulate eucrites are gabbros formed by crystal fractionation from basaltic eucrites [4]. The consensus view is that basaltic eucrites are residual melts from global-magma-ocean crystallization on their parent asteroid [4] which is plausibly Vesta [5]. However, the petrologic and compositional characteristics of diogenites seem to preclude a magma ocean origin [1, 4]. We are doing a petrologic and chemical study of new or unusual diogenites with the ultimate goals of constraining their genesis, and the geologic evolution of Vesta.

Mittlefehldt, D. W.↗

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

Munasinghe, L.↗