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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Status and Ambitions of the US Heavy Element Program

The aim of this whitepaper is to highlight the current capabilities and priorities of the US Heavy Element community and to provide the framework for a coordinated advancement of nuclear science from these studies. This is an organized effort to reflect on what has been achieved in the field given the recommendations and initiatives of the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan, and on what can be realized in the next decade given current and possibly expanded investments. Current investments have positioned the US community to be among the world leaders in studies of the nuclear and chemical properties of the heaviest elements. These include studies of reaction mechanisms, moving us ever closer to the “island of stability”, in spectroscopy, allowing us to better understand nuclear structure at these extreme proton numbers, in chemical behavior, looking to determine how these elements should be placed on the Periodic Table, in performing the first measurements where isotopes are directly identified by their mass numbers, and in laying the foundation for a potential US-led new element discovery experiment. At present, the highest priority of the US Heavy Element community is to capitalize on the current investments by supporting the operations of US facilities at optimal values. These facilities include the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System at Argonne National Laboratory and other Department of Energy facilities such as the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which has a dedicated superheavy element program, as well as university laboratories, including Texas A&M University. The High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is crucial to providing the radioactive isotopes required for heavy element science targets. This facility should be supported to provide the actinide materials that are essential for US-based science. Production of stable, rare isotopes for beam material, including 48 Ca, 50 Ti, 54 Cr and 58 Fe, at the Stable Isotope Production and Research Center is critical to continued research in heavy element science and should be a priority. The continued development of targets for heavy element science and retaining US-based expertise is critical for the heavy element community. This is an area that is currently under pressure. For example, the target laboratory at Argonne National Laboratory serves a broad community and is currently under threat due to loss of critical personnel. The skills needed to make targets for nuclear science and develop new targetry methods need to be supported long term at Argonne, Oak Ridge and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories as well as maintaining the programs at Oregon State University and San José State University as vital pipelines for training students. Advances in theory are the foundation to understand how nuclei behave and to predict those behaviors in new circumstances. Progress in these studies will necessitate continued and new investment and access to high-performance computing. The future health of the heavy element field is dependent on the continuous support of talented early-career professionals at all levels. It is critical that opportunities continue to be created for the next generation to become established in heavy element research so that we can ensure the field is attracting and retaining the best minds for continued success. It is also clear that to ensure diversity of ideas, perspectives and techniques, we need to recruit diverse personnel that are trained at the best facilities. The heavy element community is in support of continued investment to programs with initiatives in diversity, equity, and inclusion. Looking to the next decade of research, support needs to maintain and grow US leadership in heavy element science. Specifically, new investments in state-of-the-art instrumentation will be essential to scientific development of the field and in expanding scientific knowledge. Advances in the next generation of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources, multi-reflection time-of-flight devices, laser spectroscopy, trapping methods and next generation alpha and gamma spectroscopy systems should be prioritized.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seasonality and longer-term development generate temporal dynamics in the Populus microbiome

ABSTRACT Temporal variation in community composition is central to our understanding of the assembly and functioning of microbial communities, yet the controls over temporal dynamics for microbiomes of long-lived plants, such as trees, remain unclear. Temporal variation in tree microbiomes could arise primarily from seasonal (i.e., intra-annual) fluctuations in community composition or from longer-term changes across years as host plants age. To test these alternatives, we experimentally isolated temporal variation in plant microbiome composition using a common garden and clonally propagated plants, and we used amplicon sequencing to characterize bacterial/archaeal and fungal communities in the leaf endosphere, root endosphere, and rhizosphere of two Populus spp. over four seasons across two consecutive years. Microbial community composition differed among seasons and years (which accounted for up to 21% of the variation in microbial community composition) and was correlated with seasonal dissimilarity in climatic conditions. However, microbial community dissimilarity was also positively correlated with time, reflecting longer-term compositional shifts as host trees aged. Together, our findings demonstrate that temporal patterns in tree microbiomes arise from both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term changes, which interact to generate unique seasonal patterns each year. In addition to shedding light on two important controls over the assembly of plant microbiomes, our results also suggest future studies of tree microbiomes should account for background temporal dynamics when testing the drivers of spatial patterns in microbial community composition and temporal responses of plant microbiomes to environmental change. IMPORTANCE Microbiomes are integral to the health of host plants, but we have a limited understanding of the factors that control how the composition of plant microbiomes changes over time. Especially little is known about the microbiome of long-lived trees, relative to annual and non-woody plants. We tested how tree microbiomes changed between seasons and years in poplar (genus Populus ), which are widespread and ecologically important tree species that also serve as important biofuel feedstocks. We found the composition of bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities differed among seasons, but these seasonal differences depended on year. This dependence was driven by longer-term changes in microbial composition as host trees developed across consecutive years. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in tree microbiomes is driven by both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term (i.e., multiyear) development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commitment to Active Allyship Is Required to Address the Lack of Hispanic and Latinx Representation in the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

In 2021, people of Hispanic and Latinx origin made up 6% of the atmospheric and Earth sciences workforce of the United States, yet they represent 20% of the population. Motivated by this disparity in Hispanic and Latinx representation in the atmospheric and Earth science workforce, this manuscript documents the lack of representation through existing limited demographic data. The analysis presents a clear gap in participation by Hispanic and Latinx people in academic settings, with a widening gap through each education and career stage. Several factors and challenges impacting the representation disparity include the lack of funding for and collaboration with Hispanic-serving institutions, limited opportunities due to immigration status, and limited support for international research collaborations. We highlight the need for actionable steps to address the lack of representation and provide targeted recommendations to federal funding agencies, educational institutions, faculty, and potential employers. While we wait for systemic cultural change from our scientific institutions, grassroots initiatives like those proudly led by the AMS Committee for Hispanic and Latinx Advancement will emerge to address the needs of the Hispanic and Latinx scientific and broader community. We briefly highlight some of those achievements. Lasting cultural change can only happen if our leaders are active allies in the creation of a more diverse, equitable, and inclusive future. Alongside our active allies we will continue to champion for change in our weather, water, and climate enterprise.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing temperatures reduce invertebrate abundance and slow decomposition

Decomposition is an essential ecosystem service driven by interacting biotic and abiotic factors. Increasing temperatures due to climate change can affect soil moisture, soil fauna, and subsequently, decomposition. Understanding how projected climate change scenarios will affect decomposition is of vital importance for predicting nutrient cycling and ecosystem health. In this study, we experimentally addressed the question of how the early stages of decomposition would vary along a gradient of projected climate change scenarios. Given the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem service provisioning, we measured the effect of invertebrate exclusion on red maple ( Acer rubrum ) leaf litter breakdown along a temperature gradient using litterbags in warming chambers over a period of five weeks. Leaf litter decomposed more slowly in the warmer chambers and in the litterbag treatment that minimized invertebrate access. Moreover, increasing air temperature reduced invertebrate abundance and richness, and altered the community composition, independent of exclusion treatment. Using structural equation models, we were able to disentangle the effects of average air temperature on leaf litter loss, finding a direct negative effect of warming on the early stages of decomposition, independent of invertebrate abundance. This result indicates that not only can climate change affect the invertebrate community, but may also directly influence how the remaining organisms interact with their environment and their effectiveness at provisioning ecosystem services. Overall, our study highlights the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecosystem services and contributes to our understanding of how climate change could disrupt nutrient cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systems Level Understanding of Interconnected Methane and Nitrogen Cycles Using Complex Synthetic Communities

The main goal of this project was to follow up on prior discovery of the communal nature of methane utilization by the aerobic methanotrophic bacteria, resulting in carbon transfer along a food chain. This goal was approached via manipulation of specially designed, synthetic bacterial communities, fed exclusively by methane, under a variety of simulated environmental conditions. Using (meta)genomics, metatranscriptomics, stable isotope probing and mutant generation, we obtained solid evidence for the nature of the core microbiota involved in collaborative methane consumption, the major players (true methanotrophs) being the members of the family Methylococcaceae, their major partners (non-methanotrophic methylotrophs) being members of the family Methylophilaceae, and minor but persistent partners in the communities being members of the orders Burkholderiales and Bacteroidetes. Metabolic reconstruction from single genomes and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), along with metatranscriptomics results delineated major pathways for carbon metabolism, suggesting that the methanotrophs share different organic compounds with different functional guilds: methanol with Methylophilaceae, acetate with Burkholderiales, and polymeric substances with Bacteroidetes. Overall, the results of this project expand our understanding of microbial metabolism of methane and, thus, provide basis for strategies for microbial methane mitigation, with obvious benefits to the society of the United States and worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential structure and functional gene response to geochemistry associated with the suspended and attached shallow aquifer microbiomes from the Illinois Basin, IL

Despite the clear ecological significance of the microbiomes inhabiting groundwater and connected ecosystems, our current understanding of their habitats, functionality, and the ecological processes controlling their assembly have been limited. In this study, an efficient pipeline combining geochemistry, high-throughput Fluidigm TM functional gene amplification and sequencing was developed to analyze the suspended and attached microbial communities inhabiting five groundwater monitoring wells in the Illinois Basin, USA. The dominant taxa in the suspended and the attached microbial communities exhibited significantly different spatial and temporal changes in both alpha- and beta-diversity. Further analyses of representative functional genes affiliated with N 2 fixation (nifH), methane oxidation (pmoA), and sulfate reduction (dsrB, and aprA), suggested functional redundancy within the shallow aquifer microbiomes. While more diversified functional gene taxa were observed for the suspended microbial communities than the attached ones except for pmoA, different levels of changes over time and space were observed between these functional genes. Notably, deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaped the assembly of microbial communities and functional gene reservoirs differently. While homogenous selection was the prevailing process controlling assembly of microbial communities, the neutral processes (e.g., dispersal limitation, drift and others) were more important for the functional genes. The results suggest complex and changing shallow aquifer microbiomes, whose functionality and assembly vary even between the spatially proximate habitats and fractions. As a result, this research underscored the importance to include all the interface components for a more holistic understanding of the biogeochemical processes in aquifer ecosystems, which is also instructive for practical applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plasma Science: Enabling Technology, Sustainability, Security, and Exploration

The Plasma2020 decadal report took a forward-looking, interagency perspective on how the different elements that constitute plasma science provide a broad interdisciplinary driver for capitalizing on future opportunities in the scientific community. Goals of the study were to (1) provide a retrospective survey of the field of plasma science; (2) illustrate the vibrant connections that unify the field of plasma science; (3) offer a vision for future developments in plasma science, such as those related to organizational structure, program balance, and funding; (4) provide an assessment of the demographic characteristics and human resource development of the field, such as those related to workforce, educational, and other societal needs; and (5) make recommendations to balance the objectives of the field in a sustainable and healthy manner over the long term. The resulting report was composed in a style accessible to the non-scientist reader. With this approach, a broad audience can understand the importance of plasma science and what researchers in the field want to learn in the coming decades.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Earth System Model Development - Energy Exascale Earth System Model (2020 Principal Investigator Meeting Report)

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), the Earth System Model Development (ESMD) program area supports significant research in Earth system model development, including major efforts in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project. Convened virtually on October 26–29, the 2020 ESMD-E3SM Principal Investigator (PI) Meeting provided a forum to survey ESMD sponsored research, recent progress made by the ESMD science team and the broader Earth system modeling community within and outside of DOE, foster interactions across ESMD projects, and discuss research gaps and opportunities for future advancements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-level resource partitioning supports coexistence among functionally redundant bacteria during successional dynamics

Members of microbial communities can substantially overlap in substrate use. However, what enables functionally redundant microorganisms to coassemble or even stably coexist remains poorly understood. Here, we show that during unstable successional dynamics on complex, natural organic matter, functionally redundant bacteria can coexist by partitioning low-concentration substrates even though they compete for one simple, dominant substrate. We allowed ocean microbial communities to self-assemble on leachates of the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and then analyzed the competition among 10 taxonomically diverse isolates representing two distinct stages of the succession. All, but two isolates, exhibited an average of 90% ± 6% pairwise overlap in resource use, and functional redundancy of isolates from the same assembly stage was higher than that from between assembly stages, leading us to construct a simpler four-isolate community with two isolates from each of the early and late stages. We found that, although the short-term dynamics of the four-isolate communities in F. vesiculosus leachate was dependent on initial isolate ratios, in the long term, the four isolates stably coexist in F. vesiculosus leachate, albeit with some strains at low abundance. We therefore explored the potential for nonredundant substrate use by genomic content analysis and RNA expression patterns. This analysis revealed that the four isolates mainly differed in peripheral metabolic pathways, such as the ability to degrade pyrimidine, leucine, and tyrosine, as well as aromatic substrates. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale differences in metabolic strategies for supporting the frequently observed coexistence of large numbers of rare organisms in natural microbiomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring plant–plant interactions using remote sensing

Rapid technological advancements and increasing data availability have improved the capacity to monitor and evaluate Earth's ecology via remote sensing. However, remote sensing is notoriously ‘blind’ to fine-scale ecological processes such as interactions among plants, which encompass a central topic in ecology. Here, we discuss how remote sensing technologies can help infer plant–plant interactions and their roles in shaping plant-based systems at individual, community and landscape levels. At each of these levels, we outline the key attributes of ecosystems that emerge as a product of plant–plant interactions and could possibly be detected by remote sensing data. We review the theoretical bases, approaches and prospects of how inference of plant–plant interactions can be assessed remotely. At the individual level, we illustrate how close-range remote sensing tools can help to infer plant–plant interactions, especially in experimental settings. At the community level, we use forests to illustrate how remotely sensed community structure can be used to infer dominant interactions as a fundamental force in shaping plant communities. At the landscape level, we highlight how remotely sensed attributes of vegetation states and spatial vegetation patterns can be used to assess the role of local plant–plant interactions in shaping landscape ecological systems. Synthesis . Remote sensing extends the domain of plant ecology to broader and finer spatial scales, assisting to scale ecological patterns and search for generic rules. Robust remote sensing approaches are likely to extend our understanding of how plant–plant interactions shape ecological processes across scales—from individuals to landscapes. Combining these approaches with theories, models, experiments, data-driven approaches and data analysis algorithms will firmly embed remote sensing techniques into ecological context and open new pathways to better understand biotic interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complementary effects of supplemental feeding and straw retention on winter biodiversity in rice agroecosystems

Rice paddies are both major food-production systems and critical winter habitats for wildlife. In the Civilian Control Zone (CCZ) adjoining the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), post-harvest interventions such as supplementary grain feeding and straw retention are promoted through agronomic and conservation incentives. These measures differ in ecological scope: feeding provides direct, concentrated energetic subsidies, whereas straw management alters habitat structure and resource bases. We clarified whether these pathways function in complementary or substitutive ways to support resilient, long-term conservation strategies in rice agroecosystems. Using camera traps, we evaluated the effects of three straw treatments (chopped-straw, whole-straw, straw-removed) and supplemental feeding on winter bird and mammal communities across 48 rice fields in the CCZ. Our results demonstrate that feeding produced strong, localized increases in bird abundance and richness, driven mainly by cranes (Grus japonensis and Antigone vipio) and geese (Anser spp.), with limited effects on Shannon diversity or functional structure. Among non-feeding fields, chopped-straw paddies consistently supported higher richness and Shannon diversity than whole-straw or straw-removed fields, while centroid shifts in taxonomic and functional space were modest. Mammal abundance and diversity were largely insensitive to feeding or straw regimes, varying instead with road and forest distance and regional context. Supplemental feeding and straw retention are therefore not interchangeable tools: feeding concentrates a few avian guilds, whereas chopped-straw retention enhances baseline diversity across farmland. Collectively, our findings suggest integrating low-input straw retention with targeted feeding offers a more robust pathway for sustaining winter biodiversity in rice agroecosystems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Methyl Bromide for Interspecies Cell–Cell Signaling and As a Reporter in a Model Soil Consortium

Synthetic microbial communities are emerging as model systems for studying consortia-scale phenotypes. To establish synthetic biology tools for studying these communities in hard-to-image environmental materials, we evaluated whether a single member of a model soil consortium (MSC) can be programmed to report on gene expression without requiring matrix disruption. For these studies, we targeted a five member MSC that includes Dyadobacter fermentans, Ensifer adhaerens, Rhodococcus sp003130705, Streptomyces sp001905665, and Variovorax beijingensis. By coupling the expression of a methyl halide transferase to a constitutive promoter, we show that Variovorax beijingensis can be programmed to synthesize methyl halides that accumulate in the soil headspace at levels that are ≥24-fold higher than all other MSC members across a range of environmentally-relevant hydration conditions. We find that methyl halide production can report on a MSC promoter that is activated by changes in water potential, and we demonstrate that a synthetic gas signal can be read out directly using gas chromatography and indirectly using a soil-derived Methylorubrum that is programmed to produce a visual output in response to methyl halides. Finally, these tools will be useful for future studies that investigate how MSC respond to dynamic hydration conditions, such as drought and flood events induced by climate change, which can alter soil water potential and induce the release of stored carbon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilience in soil bacterial communities of the boreal forest from one to five years after wildfire across a severity gradient

Wildfires can represent a major disturbance to ecosystems, including soil microbial communities belowground. Furthermore, fire regimes are changing in many parts of the world, altering and often increasing fire severity, frequency, and size. The boreal forest and taiga plains ecoregions of northern Canada are characterized by naturally-occurring stand-replacing wildfires on a 40–350 year basis. We previously studied the effects of wildfire on soil microbial communities one year post-fire across 40 sites, spanning a range of burn severity. Here, we return to the same sites five years post-fire to test a series of hypotheses about the effects of fire on bacterial community composition. We ask questions on two themes: which factors control bacterial community composition during post-fire recovery, and how does the importance of different fire-responsive traits change during post-fire recovery? We find the following: Five years post-fire, vegetation community, moisture regime, pH, total carbon, texture, and burned/unburned all remained significant predictors of bacterial community composition with similar predictive value (R 2 ). Bacterial communities became more similar to unburned sites five years post-fire, across the range of severity, suggesting resilience, while general structure of co-occurrence networks remained similar one and five years post-fire. Fast growth potential, as estimated using predicted 16S rRNA copy numbers, was no longer significantly correlated with burn severity five years post-fire, indicating the importance of this trait for structuring bacterial community composition may be limited to relatively short timescales. Many taxa that were enriched in burned sites one year post-fire remained enriched five years post-fire, although the degree to which they were enriched generally decreased. Specific taxa of interest from the genera Massilia, Blastococcus, and Arthrobacter all remained significantly enriched, suggesting that they may have traits that allow them to continue to flourish in the post-fire environment, such as tolerance to increased pH or ability to degrade pyrogenic organic matter. This hypothesis-based work expands our understanding of the post-fire recovery of soil bacterial communities and raises new hypotheses to test in future studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon cycling across ecosystem succession in a north temperate forest: Controls and management implications

Despite decades of progress, much remains unknown about successional trajectories of carbon (C) cycling in north temperate forests. Drivers and mechanisms of these changes, including the role of different types of disturbances, are particularly elusive. To address this gap, we synthesized decades of data from experimental chronosequences and long-term monitoring at a well-studied, regionally representative field site in northern Michigan, USA. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of changes in above- and belowground ecosystem components over two centuries of succession, links temporal dynamics in C pools and fluxes with underlying drivers, and offers several conceptual insights to the field of forest ecology. Our first advance shows how temporal dynamics in some ecosystem components are consistent across severe disturbances that reset succession and partial disturbances that slightly modify it: both of these disturbance types increase soil N availability, alter fungal community composition, and alter growth and competitive interactions between short-lived pioneer and longer-lived tree taxa. Further, these changes in turn affect soil C stocks, respiratory emissions, and other belowground processes. Second, we show that some other ecosystem components have effects on C cycling that are not consistent over the course of succession. For example, canopy structure does not influence C uptake early in succession but becomes important as stands develop, and the importance of individual structural properties changes over the course of two centuries of stand development. Third, we show that in recent decades, climate change is masking or overriding the influence of community composition on C uptake, while respiratory emissions are sensitive to both climatic and compositional change. In synthesis, we emphasize that time is not a driver of C cycling; it is a dimension within which ecosystem drivers such as canopy structure, tree and microbial community composition change. Changes in those drivers, not in forest age, are what control forest C trajectories, and those changes can happen quickly or slowly, through natural processes or deliberate intervention. Stemming from this view and a whole-ecosystem perspective on forest succession, we offer management applications from this work and assess its broader relevance to understanding long-term change in other north temperate forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Proxies of Present and Future Lightning in a Superparameterized Model

Abstract A superparameterized climate model is used to assess the global performance of several previously proposed proxies for lightning. In particular, predictors incorporating hydrometeor (ice, graupel) profiles and convective vertical velocities are compared to observations, then used to estimate changes in flash rates with global warming. The choice of microphysics parameterization is also investigated, with all predictors showing higher correlations with Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector observations when using a 2‐moment scheme compared to a 1‐moment representation. All proxies generally agree in their response to warming over tropical land, with notable decreases in Africa, the Middle East, and northern South America, but disagree over oceans and the midlatitudes. The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation predicts increases over these latter areas, as do the 2‐moment ice‐based proxies, while those of the 1‐moment model tend to show decreases, highlighting the importance of cloud microphysics when using climate models to simulate lightning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prospects of federated machine learning in fluid dynamics

Physics-based models have been mainstream in fluid dynamics for developing predictive models. In recent years, machine learning has offered a renaissance to the fluid community due to the rapid developments in data science, processing units, neural network based technologies, and sensor adaptations. So far in many applications in fluid dynamics, machine learning approaches have been mostly focused on a standard process that requires centralizing the training data on a designated machine or in a data center. In this article, we present a federated machine learning approach that enables localized clients to collaboratively learn an aggregated and shared predictive model while keeping all the training data on each edge device. We demonstrate the feasibility and prospects of such a decentralized learning approach with an effort to forge a deep learning surrogate model for reconstructing spatiotemporal fields. Our results indicate that federated machine learning might be a viable tool for designing highly accurate predictive decentralized digital twins relevant to fluid dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗