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At least 451 records · Page 25

Dilute Combustion Control Using Spiking Neural Networks

Dilute combustion with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) in spark-ignition engines presents a cost-effective method for achieving higher levels of engine efficiency. At high levels of EGR, however, cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the combustion process is exacerbated by sporadic occurrences of misfires and partial burns. Previous studies have shown that temporal deterministic patterns emerge at such conditions and certain combustion cycles have a significant influence over future events. Due to the complexity of the combustion process and the nature of CCV, harnessing all the deterministic information for control purposes has remained challenging even with physics based 0-D, 1-D, and high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. In this study, we present a data-driven approach to optimize the combustion process by controlling CCV adjusting the cycle-to-cycle fuel injection quantity. Readily available data from in-cylinder pressure was used to train a spiking neural network (SNN) which learns the optimal way to manage fuel injection in order to reduce CCV while maintaining acceptable levels of fuel consumption. SNNs are particularly well suited for powertrain control applications due to their ability to be deployed on FPGA-based neuromorphic hardware which are small, inexpensive, and have a low power demand. The high-performance computing (HPC) resources of Oak Ridge National Laboratory were used to run an evolutionary-based training approach for choosing the best SNN configuration that minimizes the size of the network while achieving the desired goal. The neuromorphic hardware with the optimized SNN deployed was connected to the rapid prototyping engine control system for real-time control implementation and tested on a single cylinder version of a GM LNF 4-cylinder engine. The results show a significant reduction of CCV with a small percentage of additional fuel used to stabilize the charge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Numerical Analysis of Fuel Effects on Advanced Compression Ignition Using a Cooperative Fuel Research Engine Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

Growing environmental concerns and demand for a better fuel economy are driving forces that motivate the research for more advanced engines. Multi-mode combustion strategies have gained attention for their potential to provide high thermal efficiency and low emissions for light-duty applications. These strategies target optimizing the engine performance by correlating different combustion modes to load operating conditions. The extension from boosted spark ignition (SI) mode at high loads to advanced compression ignition (ACI) mode at low loads can be achieved by increasing the compression ratio and utilizing intake air heating. Further, in order to enable an accurate control of intake charge condition for ACI mode and rapid mode-switches, it is essential to gain fundamental insights into the autoignition process. Within the scope of ACI, homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) mode is of significant interest. It is known for its potential benefits, operation at low fuel consumption, low NOx, and particulate matter (PM) emissions. In the present work, a virtual Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine model is used to analyze fuel effects on ACI combustion. In particular, the effect of fuel octane sensitivity (S) (at constant Research Octane Number (RON)) on autoignition propensity is assessed under beyond-RON (BRON) and beyond-MON (BMON) ACI conditions. The three-dimensional CFR engine computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model employs a finite-rate chemistry approach with a multi-zone binning strategy to capture autoignition. Two binary blends with Research Octane Number (RON) of 90 are chosen for this study: primary reference fuel (PRF) with S = 0 and toluene–heptane (TH) blend with S = 10.8, representing paraffinic and aromatic gasoline surrogates. Reduced mechanisms for these blends are generated from a detailed gasoline surrogate kinetic mechanism. Simulation results with the reduced mechanisms are validated against experimental data from an in-house CFR engine, with respect to in-cylinder pressure, heat release rate, and combustion phasing. Thereafter, the sensitivity of combustion behavior to ACI operating condition (BRON versus BMON), air-fuel ratio (λ = 2 and 3), and engine speed (600 and 900 rpm) is analyzed for both fuels. It is shown that the sensitivity of a fuel’s autoignition characteristics to λ and engine speed significantly differs at BRON and BMON conditions. Moreover, this sensitivity is found to vary among fuels, despite the same RON. It is also observed that the presence of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) under BRON condition leads to more sequential autoignition and longer combustion duration than BMON condition. Finally, the study indicates that the octane index (OI) fails to capture the trend in the variation of autoignition propensity with S under the BMON condition.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Droplet burning of n-butyl acetate/n-heptane mixtures in the standard atmosphere: experiments and numerical modeling

Blending petroleum fuels with oxygenates is a common approach to stem the depletion of crude oil while also mitigating the impact of their combustion on the environment. It has recently been considered that n-butyl acetate (BA, C6H12O2 , boiling point of 399K) could be a viable oxygenate additive to diesel fuel. In this application it is important to determine the influence of the fractional amount of BA on burning of the mixture. This presentation considers this problem from an experimental and computational approach using n-heptane (C7H14 , boiling point of 372K) as an essentially single component surrogate for diesel fuel. The burning configuration considered was ostensibly spherical symmetry as promoted by burning droplets under conditions where forced and natural convection effects were minimized. In this configuration the droplet and flame are concentric spheres and soot aggregates are trapped in a shell structure between the droplet and flame. Measurements were made of the droplet, flame and soot shell diameters through video imaging of the burning process. The experimental results were used to validate a detailed numerical model of the spherically symmetric droplet burning process that incorporated a consistent combustion kinetic mechanism for BA/heptane mixtures, comprised of 402 species and 16,872 reactions inclusive of soot chemistry. A model for soot formation was also included in the simulation to predict formation of the soot shell. The simulations agreed well with measured droplet and flame diameters. It was found both experimentally and computationally that adding BA to heptane had a minimal effect on the mixture burning rate, while the flame was positioned closer to the droplet surface and the simulated soot volume fraction decreased. The implications of these results are discussed for using BA as a potential additive to diesel fuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Understanding the interplay between pilot fuel mixing and auto-ignition chemistry in hydrogen-enriched environment

The diesel-piloted dual-fuel compression ignition combustion strategy is well-suited to accelerate the decarbonization of transportation by adopting hydrogen as a renewable energy carrier into the existing internal combustion engine with minimal engine modifications. Despite the simplicity of engine modification, many questions remain unanswered regarding the optimal pilot injection strategy for reliable ignition with minimum pilot fuel consumption. The present study uses a single-cylinder heavy-duty optical engine to explore the phenomenology and underlying mechanisms governing the pilot fuel ignition and the subsequent combustion of a premixed hydrogen-air charge. The engine is operated in a dual-fuel mode with hydrogen premixed into the engine intake charge with a direct pilot injection of n-heptane as a diesel pilot fuel surrogate. Optical diagnostics used to visualize in-cylinder combustion phenomena include high-speed IR imaging of the pilot fuel spray evolution as well as high-speed HCHO* and OH* chemiluminescence as indicators of low-temperature and high-temperature heat release, respectively. Three pilot injection strategies are compared to explore the effects of pilot fuel mass, injection pressure, and injection duration on the probability and repeatability of successful ignition. The thermodynamic and imaging data analysis supported by zero-dimensional chemical kinetics simulations revealed a complex interplay between the physical and chemical processes governing the pilot fuel ignition process in a hydrogen containing charge. Hydrogen strongly inhibits the ignition of pilot fuel mixtures and therefore requires longer injection duration to create zones with sufficiently high pilot fuel concentration for successful ignition. Results show that ignition typically tends to rely on stochastic pockets with high pilot fuel concentration, which results in poor repeatability of combustion and frequent misfiring. In conclusion, this work has improved the understanding on how the unique chemical properties of hydrogen pose a challenge for maximization of hydrogen’s energy share in hydrogen dual-fuel engines and highlights a potential mitigation pathway.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advanced Multi-Tube Mixer Combustion for 65% Efficiency (Final Report)

This project targeted advanced low NOx combustion for advanced gas turbines capable of 65%, or greater, efficiency in combined cycle application. This technology advancement has further potential to benefit gas turbines used in coal based IGCC applications with pre-combustion carbon capture and hydrogen as the resulting fuel. The program developed and synthesized the most advanced combustion system capable of achieving low NOX emissions up to turbine inlet temperatures of 3100F while also supporting the load-following needs of a modern grid. The combustion system contributes to the overall gas turbine efficiency goal by setting the maximum cycle temperature achievable for a given NOX level and by minimizing the through-combustor air flow pressure drop. Focus areas for this project targeted maximizing the turbine inlet temperature entitlement, as constrained by emissions considerations. The design also minimized parasitic air flow pressure drop by using advanced cooling techniques and performance materials selections and by minimizing hot surface area. These two technology objectives (maximum, emissions-compliant cycle temperature and minimum air flow pressure drop) were integrated into a prototype design. The primarily analytical project sought to identify the most promising technologies to meet these objectives. Additional critical “jugular” data were obtained from multi-tube mixer tests to realize the potential of leveraging “micro flames” for minimizing overall hot surface area. This data was used, in conjunction with an understanding of advanced material and cooling design technologies, to analytically develop multiple design concepts. Phase I focused on in-depth engineering analysis and design, with minimal supporting laboratory testing to enable a selection of the top three combustion architectures for achieving these overall objectives. Phase II of the program developed the selected design through a combination of sub-scale testing and analytical efforts. Early tests included a cold-flow cascade to establish aerodynamic performance characteristics and a sub-scale fired test at GE Global Research in Niskayuna, NY, to establish cooling and heat transfer characteristics in conjunction with combustion performance. The data from these tests validated the analytical models to ultimately design a full-scale, test article to evaluate at prototypical pressure and temperature conditions at GE Gas Power’s Gas Turbine Technology Laboratory in Greenville, SC. GE Gas Power also developed, tested, and recommended a suitable seal design to be applied to the unique features of the combustor. To assess the technology challenges from prospective future production of the combustor from a ceramic matrix composite material, screening tests of Environmental Barrier Coatings were completed.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Biochemical Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Hydrocarbon Fuels and Products: 2022 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is a key activity for biochemical platform research. It allows the impact of research progress (both directly achieved in-house at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] and indirectly extrapolated from available public data) to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall cellulosic biofuel production process for a particular conversion pathway. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance and progress can be tracked toward out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate cost-competitive biofuel technology. Building upon efforts to progress NREL's biochemical platform R&D work toward ultimate 2030 goals to demonstrate less than $2.50/gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) fuel selling prices, experimental and techno-economic analysis (TEA) activities have primarily focused on "advanced" biochemical processing strategies to fuels and coproducts, guided by TEA modeling to highlight key barriers and priorities toward achieving this goal across a number of potential bioconversion pathways. The purpose of the present effort is to benchmark the latest experimental developments for these pathways as quantified by modeled minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs), as a measure of current status relative to those final targets. For this SOT, TEA models were run for two separate biological conversion pathways to fuels, based on available data for integrated biomass deconstruction and hydrolysate processing; namely carboxylic acids (primarily butyric acid) and diols (2,3-butanediol [BDO]), reflecting NREL's recently published 2018 biochemical design report focused on those two pathways. The models were run across two scenarios for lignin utilization, namely combustion and conversion to value-added coproducts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A systematic method for selecting molecular descriptors as features when training models for predicting physiochemical properties

Machine learning has proven to be a powerful tool for accelerating biofuel development. Although numerous models are available to predict a range of properties using chemical descriptors, there is a trade-off between interpretability and performance. Neural networks provide predictive models with high accuracy at the expense of some interpretability, while simpler models such as linear regression often lack in accuracy. In addition to model architecture, feature selection is also critical for developing interpretable and accurate predictive models. We present a method for systematically selecting molecular descriptor features and developing interpretable machine learning models without sacrificing accuracy. Our method simplifies the process of selecting features by reducing feature multicollinearity and enables discoveries of new relationships between global properties and molecular descriptors. To demonstrate our approach, we developed models for predicting melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and net heat of combustion with the help of the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT). For training, we used publicly available experimental data for up to 8351 molecules. Our models accurately predict various molecular properties for organic molecules (mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 3.3% to 10.5%) and provide a set of features that are well-correlated to the property. This method enables researchers to explore sets of features that significantly contribute to the prediction of the property, offering new scientific insights. To help accelerate early stage biofuel research and development, we also integrated the data and models into a open-source, interactive web tool.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a rate-based ENRTL-RK process model for a water-lean solvent

Advanced water-lean solvents (WLS) for post-combustion CO2 capture offer several advantages over the aqueous amine solvents . WLS have lower parasitic energy penalty, lower corrosion, lower temperature and high-pressure CO2 regeneration leading to lower cost of CO2 capture. RTI International, with funding from the US Department of Energy, has been developing its novel water-lean solvent, that has shown specific reboiler duty of 2.3 GJ/t-CO2 at the 60-kWe pilot testing unit (Tiller Plant, SINTEF, Norway) and 2.6 GJ/t-CO2 at the engineering scale testing system (12 MWe) at the Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in Norway. All heat duties, including the one from TCM testing, were consistent with Aspen Plus modeling of the specific configuration of each test plant. This work focuses on the development of a detailed process model using in-house laboratory measurements and process data at pilot scale. The eNTRL-RK model used in this work is based on an unsymmetric activity coefficient model with the reference states chosen to be pure liquids for solvents and ideal dilute solution at unit solute molality (resulting in activity coefficient of unity at infinite dilution) for electrolytes. It uses the Redlich-Kwong equation of state for vapor phase properties and Henry’s law for solubility of supercritical gases. The model was validated using process data from the pilot-scale campaign at the Tiller plant, and the engineering scale test campaign at TCM. Data on CO2 capture rate, absorber, and regenerator temperature profiles and specific reboiler duties from two different test campaigns at Tiller and TCM, were used to further refine and validate the model and the model compares favorably to experimental data. The validation results against TCM campaign will be presented in this work.

CO2 capture↗

Advanced Light-Duty Spark Ignition Engine Research: Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines and Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (FY2020 Annual Progress Report)

This report covers recent progress on research tasks that support both the Co-Optimization of Fuels and Engines (Co-Optima) initiative and the Partnership to Advance Combustion Engines (PACE) consortium. The Co-Optima tasks further the science-base needed by industry stakeholders to co-evolve the next generation of highly efficient direct injection spark ignition (DISI) engines and new gasoline-type fuels. The research emphasis is on fuel effects on multimode spark ignition (SI) engine operation, which uses traditional non-dilute stoichiometric operation for peak load and power but reverts to lean operation at lower loads to provide higher fuel economy. This work focuses on determining desirable fuel specifications in terms of well-established metrics like research octane number (RON) and motor octane number, but it also involves the assessment of new fuel metrics, including fuel sooting propensity and phi-sensitivity. The PACE task supports the development of predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling, which promises to unlock new strategies for high-efficiency combustion while minimizing tailpipe emissions. Here, the primary fuel is a regular E10 gasoline (i.e., a regular gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol), and focus is on fuel-spray dynamics and soot emissions. Soot-formation pathways are studied to determine how the pathways change with injection strategies and the thermal state of the engine (i.e., cold-starting vs. fully warmed-up operation). This PACE task also contributed to the development of an optimal E10 gasoline surrogate fuel, as reported in detail elsewhere

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of A Multi-Spectral Pyrometry Sensor for High-Speed Transient Surface-Temperature Measurements in Combustion-Relevant Harsh Environments

Accurate and high-speed transient surface-temperature measurements of combustion devices including internal combustion (IC) engines, gas turbines, etc., provide validation targets and boundary conditions for computational fluid dynamics models, and are broadly relevant to technology advancements such as performance improvement and emissions reduction. Development and demonstration of a multi-infrared-channel pyrometry-based optical instrument for high-speed surface-temperature measurement is described. The measurement principle is based on multi-spectral radiation thermometry (MRT) and uses surface thermal radiation at four discrete spectral regions and a corresponding emissivity model to obtain surface temperature via non-linear least squares (NLLS) optimization. Rules of thumb for specifying the spectral regions and considerations to avoid interference with common combustion products are developed; the impact of these along with linear and non-linear MRT analysis are assessed as a function of temperature and signal-to-noise ratio. A multi-start method to determine the MRT-solution global optimum is described and demonstrated. The resulting multi-channel transient pyrometry instrument is described along with practical considerations including optical-alignment drift, matching intra-channel transient response, and solution-confidence indicators. The instrument demonstrated excellent >97% accuracy and >99% 2-sigma precision over the 400–800 °C range, with ~20 µs (50 kHz, equivalent to 0.2 cad at 2000 RPM IC-engine operation) transient response in the bench validation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Learning reference governor for cycle-to-cycle combustion control with misfire avoidance in spark-ignition engines at high exhaust gas recirculation–diluted conditions

Cycle-to-cycle feedback control is employed to achieve optimal combustion phasing while maintaining high levels of exhaust gas recirculation by adjusting the spark advance and the exhaust gas recirculation valve position. The control development is based on a control-oriented model that captures the effects of throttle position, exhaust gas recirculation valve position, and spark timing on the combustion phasing. Under the assumption that in-cylinder pressure information is available, an adaptive extended Kalman filter approach is used to estimate the exhaust gas recirculation rate into the intake manifold based on combustion phasing measurements. The estimation algorithm is adaptive since the cycle-to-cycle combustion variability (output covariance) is not known a priori and changes with operating conditions. A linear quadratic regulator controller is designed to maintain optimal combustion phasing while maximizing exhaust gas recirculation levels during load transients coming from throttle tip-in and tip-out commands from the driver. During throttle tip-outs, however, a combination of a high exhaust gas recirculation rate and an overly advanced spark, product of the dynamic response of the system, generates a sequence of misfire events. In this work, an explicit reference governor is used as an add-on scheme to the closed-loop system in order to avoid the violation of the misfire limit. The reference governor is enhanced with model-free learning which enables it to avoid misfires after a learning phase. Experimental results are reported which illustrate the potential of the proposed control strategy for achieving an optimal combustion process during highly diluted conditions for improving fuel efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Role of Inlet Boundary Conditions on Fuel-Air Mixing at Supercritical Conditions

Advanced engine design and alternative fuels present the possibility of fuel injection at purely supercritical conditions in diesel engines and gas turbines. The complex interactions that govern this phenomenon still need significant research, particularly the boundary conditions for fuel injection are critical for accurate simulation. However, the flow inside the injector itself is often omitted to reduce the computational efforts, and thus, velocity, mass flux, or total pressure is specified at the injector exit (or domain inlet), often with simplified velocity profiles and turbulence levels. This simplified inlet boundary treatment has minimal effects on results for conventional fuel injection conditions, however, the validity of this approach at supercritical conditions has not been assessed. Comprehensive real-gas and binary fluid mixing models have been implemented for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of fuel-air mixing at supercritical conditions. The model is verified using prior CFD results from the literature. The model is used to investigate the effects of the shape of axial velocity and mass fraction profiles at the inlet boundary with the goal to improve the comparison of predictions to experimental data. Results show that the boundary conditions have a significant effect on the predictions, and none of the cases match precisely with experimental data. Furthermore, the study reveals that the physical location of the inlet boundary might be difficult to infer correctly from the experiments and highlights the need for high-quality, repeatable measurements at supercritical conditions to support the development of relevant high-fidelity models for fuel-air mixing.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A physics-driven Σ-Y atomization model for heavy-duty engine simulations

The atomization of a liquid jet is a multi-scale and multi-physics problem of interest for many engineering applications. Particularly, it drives the fuel-oxidizer mixing and dictates the efficiency of combustion engines. High-fidelity multi-phase simulations remain challenging due to the excessive computational cost required to capture all the atomization scales. Thus, atomization models are necessary to represent sub-grid liquid structures. Here, in this work, a modified Σ-Y model in the context of Eulerian-Lagrangian Spray Atomization (ELSA) is used to transport the surface area density of the spray. The model's predictive performance is assessed under various operating conditions relevant to heavy-duty engines using the Engine Combustion Network (ECN) Spray C and Spray D research-grade injectors. The classic droplet collision formulation of the Σ-Y model alone does not replicate the response of the measured spray surface area to changes in injector, ambient pressure, and injection pressure, requiring individual tuning of the model's parameters. Instead, a transition between dense and dilute spray breakup mechanisms is proposed in terms of the average droplet spacing. The collision breakup mechanism represents the dilute spray, whereas the droplet size in the dense spray is driven by a competition between the integral scale of turbulence and the balance between the turbulent kinetic energy and the surface energy of the droplets. Such an approach minimizes the requirements for model tuning. Moreover, the role of the constants of a compressible standard k-ε RANS model is assessed in the injector's internal flow and external spray simulation framework, and an updated set is proposed. The results are validated against x-ray radiography and Ultra-Small Angle X-ray Scattering (USAXS) data and highlight the predictive capabilities of the proposed physics-driven Σ-Y model, which is compatible with engine simulation turnaround times.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Soot Formation and Ignition Characteristics of Ethanol/Gasoline Blends in a Rapid Compression Machine

With the ever-increasing demand for sustainable energy, alcohol fuels have garnered interest for use in heavy duty engines. The significant infrastructure for ethanol production and blending of ethanol with gasoline make these fuels/fuel blends desirable candidates. However, development of heavy duty engine technology that is capable of burning alcohol fuels while retaining the advantages of traditional diesel combustion requires an improved understanding of the soot formation for these fuels under conditions relevant to mixing-controlled combustion. This work uses an extinction diagnostic to study the sooting tendency of ethanol and gasoline/ethanol blends ranging from E10 to E98 during ignition in a homogeneous environment. Experiments were conducted in a rapid compression machine (RCM) for compressed conditions of 20 ± 1 bar and an approximately constant temperature (± 10K) which was unique for each fuel. For a given soot volume fraction, a linear relationship was observed between ethanol content and the equivalence ratio in which that soot volume fraction was formed. Accounting for the oxygenated nature of ethanol, E85 and E98 fuels produced similar amounts of soot at a given Φ ox, , suggesting other factors outside of fuel oxygen content, such as fuel morphology, impact soot formation. Ignition delay data is reported for compressed pressures of 20 ± 1 bar and compressed temperatures ranging from 633 – 670 K for E10 and 771 – 789 K for E98. Varying pressures for E10 and E98 at conditions producing similar soot volume fractions demonstrated a linear dependence of soot formation on pressure, regardless of if the pressure considered was at top dead center or peak combustion pressure. Furthermore, the data gleaned from this work will be used to select soot models and chemical kinetic mechanisms for RCM simulations to ultimately model heavy duty engine technology with the studied fuels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Classification and computation of extreme events in turbulent combustion

In the design of practical combustion systems, ensuring safety and reliability is an important requirement. For instance, reliably avoiding lean blowout, flame flashback or inlet unstart is critical for ensuring safe operation. Currently, the science of predicting such events is based on prior experience, limited modeling or diagnostic tools and purely statistical approaches. Even though computational and experimental tools for studying combustion devices have vastly advanced in the last three decades, the analysis of such failure events has not been pursued widely. While the use of data for model development and calibration is being widely accepted, the extension to failure events introduces numerous challenges. In particular, the focus here is on so-called data-poor problems, where the cost of generating data is extremely high and is not easily amenable to existing computational and experimental approaches. Data-poor problems are particularly relevant when related to extreme events (also called anomalous events) that can lead to catastrophic failure of the system. It is argued that transient events that describe such failure can have different causal mechanisms. To develop the scientific inference process, a classification of such problems is used to determine specific modeling paths as well as computational tools needed. Research opportunities in the emerging field of extreme event prediction are highlighted in order to identify critical and immediate needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Innovation in complementary energy technologies from renewable energy policies

Complementary renewable technologies support renewable energy use as they can help balance the intermittency of solar and wind generation. Previous research has shown that environmental policies directly targeting renewable energy can drive innovation in solar PV and wind technology. This study explores the impact of renewable policies on innovation in complementary renewable technology that assists with integration, including combustion with mitigation potential, efficient power transmission or distribution, and enabling technologies. We use negative binomial models and a panel of 25 OECD countries from 1997 to 2015 to evaluate these relationships. We are not able to find evidence that renewable policies incentivize innovation in complementary combustion or transmission and distribution technologies, and only limited evidence that demand-pull instruments are associated with increased innovation in smart grid technology. Technology-push policies, such as public research and development funds for renewable energy, have had limited impact on grid-supporting energy storage innovation. Our findings suggest that policymakers wishing to accelerate these complementary technologies need to go beyond policies targeting renewable energy in order to drive innovation in complementary fields.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lagrangian simulations of spray interaction with a surface using a stochastic multi-regime impingement model

Modeling of spray impingement upon the piston or cylinder surface is important for hydrocarbon emission and soot predictions in high-fidelity simulation of internal combustion engines with direct injections. Due to the complexity of the physical process of spray impingement, current computational models heavily rely on the empirical studies which involve large uncertainties. A computational model is presented for spray impingement on solid walls in general computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The model adopts the Marmanis-Thoroddsen theory for determining the number of secondary droplets and a stochastic method for calculating the velocities of the secondary droplets. The numerical methods and parallel implementation of the impingement model are presented in detail. The model is implemented in Grit, which is a recently developed CPU/GPU performance-portable Lagrangian particle library, for accelerating spray simulations. The model and its implementation are tested for examples of spray impingements on flat and smooth surfaces with different impingement angles.

Ge, Wenjun↗