Manned spacecraft systems cost model, volume I. Condensed summary report, Apr. 1965 - Jun. 1966
Mathematical model to develop cost estimates of advanced spacecraft for NASA Manned Spaceflight Center
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Mathematical model to develop cost estimates of advanced spacecraft for NASA Manned Spaceflight Center
Program and facility planning, and cost estimation for Manned Orbital Telescope /MOT/
Double sampling techniques employing LANDSAT data for estimating the acreage of corn and soybeans was investigated and evaluated. The evaluation was based on estimated costs and correlations between two existing procedures having differing cost/variance characteristics, and included consideration of their individual merits when coupled with a fictional 'perfect' procedure of zero bias and variance. Two features of the analysis are: (1) the simultaneous estimation of two or more crops; and (2) the imposition of linear cost constraints among two or more types of resource. A reasonably realistic operational scenario was postulated. The costs were estimated from current experience with the measurement procedures involved, and the correlations were estimated from a set of 39 LACIE-type sample segments located in the U.S. Corn Belt. For a fixed variance of the estimate, double sampling with the two existing LANDSAT measurement procedures can result in a 25% or 50% cost reduction. Double sampling which included the fictional perfect procedure results in a more cost effective combination when it is used with the lower cost/higher variance representative of the existing procedures.
Conceptual design study of advanced Mariner space probe - development plan and cost estimate for flyby bus/lander on Mars mission
Feasibility of 20 watt/pound solar cell area - array models, cost estimates, fabrication of assemblies, and large-scale production of cells
Program evaluation and review technique covering progress, cost estimates, contracts, personnel panels, management and operational philosophies
The metallization and interconnection of Si solar cells to form a module is usually a multi-step process: cells are metallized individually, soldered into strings, and subsequently assembled into a module. Furthermore, the metallization process for individual cells must be compatible with the doped surfaces being contacted, which creates additional challenges when moving from diffused junctions to heterojunctions and/or passivated contact structures. To mitigate these problems and streamline module manufacturing for the case of interdigitated back contact (IBC) cell modules, we developed an approach wherein unmetallized IBC cells are bonded directly to a circuitized backsheet using a conductive adhesive (CA) that only conducts out-of-plane. The metal/CA/silicon stack is bonded by hot-pressing at 100-200 degrees C.For a CA consisting of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) filled with Ag-coated spheres or indium powder we find that contact resistivities in the range of 1-10 Wcm 2 are obtained, regardless of which conductive filler and which hot pressing parameters are used. XPS revealed that about 1-2 nm EVA residue bonds to the Si in these samples, suggesting the formation of an insulating barrier that is responsible for the high contact resistance. Using indium powder alone, improved contact resistivities <0.6 Wcm 2 , high shunt resistances, and an implied open-circuit voltage loss below 10 mV were obtained. Furthermore, a cost estimate is presented, indicating that substantial cost savings of up to $10/m 2 , or about $0.05/W DC , are possible through CA-based IBC module manufacturing.
Deep energy decarbonization cannot be achieved without high penetration of renewables. At higher renewable energy penetrations, the variability and intermittent nature of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity can cause ramping issues with existing fossil fuel generation, requiring longer term energy storage to increase the reliability of grid operation. Here, a proton exchange membrane electrolyzer can produce H 2 and serves as a utility controllable load. The produced H 2 can then be stored and converted back into electricity, or mixed with natural gas, or used as transportation fuel, or chemical feedstock. This paper considers the perspective of the distribution system operator that operates the distributed energy resources on a standard IEEE 33-node distribution network considering the technical and physical constraints with the goal of minimizing total investment and operation cost. Different case studies, at very high PV penetrations are considered to show the challenges and path to net-zero emission energy production using H 2 energy. Sensitivity of utility PV costs and electrolyzer capital costs on producing H 2 at $\$1$ /kg are presented showing that the distribution network could produce 100% renewable electricity and H 2 could be produced at a cost of $\$1$ /kg by 2050 with conservative cost estimates and by 2030 with accelerated cost declines.
The FECM/NETL Offshore CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM_Offshore) estimates costs for a CO2 storage project in an offshore saline formation or reservoir. It is applicable for storage projects located on the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of America. The purpose is to model the costs associated with a project, using simplified geo-engineering equations to calculate reservoir values needed to determine costs (such as CO2 plume area and number of injection wells). To use the model, change any of the inputs, which are always in orange cells, to the values you desire. Although there are numerous values that can be changed, the values expected to be of most interest have input cells on the 'Key_Inputs' sheet. Last update: 5/2/2025; Version 1.1 corrects bug in reservoir thickness calculations.
This project was conducted under the Co-operative Agreement No. DE-FE0027584 with the US Department Energy to developed advanced Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Technologies. The overall objective of this project was to advance SOFC technology at the cell and stack level to enhance cell robustness and durability, increase performance, and reduce balance-of-plant (BOP) requirements. By reducing system complexity combined with the increases in power density and efficiency, the ultimate goal of the project was to increased reliability and to reduce capital and operating costs of installed systems. The project was focused on pathways that will reduce the cost of the SOFC cell and stack, including the following areas: Robust, redox tolerant cell technology Lower cost cell manufacturing through advances in cell design, which will reduce the amount of material, energy and time used in the fabrication of SOFCs High performance, low temperature electrolyte based on improvement of established materials Innovative SOFC stack architecture which truly integrates Balance of Plant functionality into the stack level design Thermal management of the fuel cell stack for increased durability and expanded window of operation Novel stack design amenable for use in sub-MW to multi-MW-scale power plants and having low replacement cost The incorporation of balance-of-plant (BOP) equipment into the stack platform increased the economic viability of smaller scale systems. The project objectives were met by a multi-prong approach, including new cell design complemented with modifications to existing cell technology, as well as a new stack design incorporating components typically included in the BOP, such as heat exchangers, oxidizer, fuel reformers, and recycle systems. The project culminated with demonstration of a stack test validating the viability of the cell and stack improvements. A cost model was also developed to estimate costs for the advanced stack technology at high volume manufacturing levels. The net outcome of the project is SOFC cell and stack technology with costs significantly below current DOE targets without compromising and, in some cases, improving on the performance and degradation rate demonstrated with the current state-of-the-art stack design. The results of this project advanced the reliability, robustness, and endurance of low-cost SOFC technology that ultimately are ready to be deployed in coal power systems with greater than 60 percent efficiency (based on higher heating value of fuel) and the capability for ≥97% CO 2 capture at a cost-of-electricity that is approximately 40 percent below presently available Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle systems.
The CACTUS project aimed to develop a novel solid sorbent and sorption module prototype for direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide, by a moisture-swing adsorption (MSA) mechanism. Because MSA uses changes in humidity, not temperature to switch the sorbent from capturing CO 2 to releasing concentrated CO 2 it is > 4X more energy-efficient than the thermal swing process. The goal was to develop a sorbent with a CO 2 capture capacity of 1 mmol CO 2 /g sorbent (or 0.75 mmol CO 2 /g structured sorbent), at a projected scaled cost of < $\$$15/kg sorbent and demonstration of a path to < $\$$100/ton CO 2 . At the end of the project, we achieved 0.8 mmol CO 2 /g sorbent powders, 0.37 mmol CO 2 /g structured sorbent (50% of target), at a projected cost of $\$$29/kg sorbent and an estimated cost of $\$$160/ton CO 2 . The key innovation was SRI’s patented polymer aerogel synthesis platform, which was adapted to produce a nanoporous aerogel with a high density of CO 2 -adsorbing quaternary ammonium groups. This research discovered a new ammonium polymer sorbent and identified a chemical path for its fabrication. The new process solved the monomer immiscibility challenge encountered with the initial method (ammonium is hydrophilic and the crosslinker is hydrophobic). The team fabricated structured sorbent sheets consisting of a non-woven porous substrate impregnated with ammonium polymer and demonstrated its operation in custom made breakthrough test setup MSA DAC built at SRI, and which operates similarly to the envisioned large-scale CO 2 capture plant, to provide data for techno-economic analysis (TEA). TEA sensitivity analysis indicated that ∼$\$$100/ton CO 2 can be achieved if the target capacity of 0.75 mmol CO 2 /g structured sorbent is met. Also identified routes to decrease sorbent manufacturing cost to ∼$\$$19/kg by reducing amounts and recycling the organic solvents. More work is needed on transitioning process manufacturing from powders (which showed a capacity of up to 0.8 mmol/g sorbent) to structured sheets which showed a capacity of 0.37 mmol CO 2 /g structured sorbent (or 0.44 mmol/g sorbent if one excludes the inert porous substrate). This is likely due to different micro/nano-structure of the sorbent and material processing constraints at the laboratory scale. Sorbent cycling studies (> 100 cycles) are needed to investigate its performance stability over time.
Space science problems related to planning and directing NASA lunar and planetary programs - cost estimation, mission programming and goals, spacecraft technology, and trajectory studies
Various receiver configurations and operating conditions were examined. The interface requirements between the receiver/concentrator/power module were addressed. Production cost estimates were obtained to determine the cost of the receiver during the 1980 timeframe. A conceptual design of an air Brayton solar receiver is presented based on the results. The following design goals were established: (1)peak thermal input power - 85 KWt; (2)receiver outlet air temperature - 1500 F; (3)receiver inlet air temperature - 1050 F; (4)design mass flow rate - 0.533 lb/sec; and (5)design receiver inlet pressure - 36.75 psia.
Techniques are being developed to provide lower cost polysilicon material for solar cells. Existing technology which normally provides semiconductor industry polysilicon material is undergoing changes and also being used to provide polysilicon material for solar cells. Economics of new and existing technologies are presented for producing polysilicon. The economics are primarily based on the preliminary process design of a plant producing 1,000 metric tons/year of silicon. The polysilicon processes include: Siemen's process (hydrogen reduction of trichlorosilane); Union Carbide process (silane decomposition); and Hemlock Semiconductor process (hydrogen reduction of dichlorosilane). The economics include cost estimates of capital investment and product cost to produce polysilicon via the technology. Sensitivity analysis results are also presented to disclose the effect of major paramentes such as utilities, labor, raw materials and capital investment.
JPL’s Office of Formulation provides continuity of support and access to domain subject matter experts, as Principal Investigators mature their mission concepts from “cocktail napkin” ideas to Preliminary Design Reviews [1]. Using NASA’s Psyche mission as a case study, we describe JPL’s concurrent engineering A-Team and Team X support to the Psyche competed concept study team in the areas of 1) Initial Feasibility, 2) Trade Space Exploration, 3) Spacecraft Point Design and Cost Estimate, 4) Science, Technical, Management, and Cost Review, and 5) Strategy and Communication Development. NASA’s Psyche Discovery-class mission started as a grassroots idea from Principal Investigator L.T. ElkinsTanton. Is there a compelling Discovery mission to visit the interior of a body for the first time, by sending a mission to an iron metal asteroid? In less than five years the Psyche concept was selected as a mission under NASA’s Discovery Program. While Psyche had a dedicated concept development team [2], they utilized JPL’s concurrent engineering teams, methods, analysis tools, and subject matter experts throughout their mission concept formulation lifecycle
JPL’s Office of Formulation provides continuity of support and access to domain subject matter experts, as Principal Investigators mature their mission concepts from “cocktail napkin” ideas to Preliminary Design Reviews [1]. Using NASA’s Psyche mission as a case study, we will describe JPL’s concurrent engineering ATeam and Team X support to the Psyche competed concept study team in the areas of 1) Science Feasibility, 2) Trade Space Exploration, 3) Spacecraft Point Design and Cost Estimate, 4) Science, Technical, Management, and Cost Review, and 5) Strategy and Communication Development. NASA’s Psyche Discovery class mission started as a grassroots idea in our A-Team facility, and in less than five years was selected as a mission under NASA’s Discovery Program. While Psyche had a dedicated concept development team [2], they utilized JPL’s concurrent engineering teams, methods, analysis tools, and experts throughout their mission concept lifecycle.
Cost estimates of life support systems in manned lunar bases
The paper presents the conceptual technical baseline design of a solar electric power plant using the central receiver concept, and derives credible cost estimates from the baseline design. The major components of the plant - heliostats, tower, receiver, tower piping, and thermal storage - are discussed in terms of technical and cost information. The assumed peak plant output is 215 MW(e), over 4000 daylight hours. The contribution of total capital investment to energy cost is estimated to be about 55 mills per kwh in mid-1974 dollars.