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The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) is a statistical model that summarizes wind and thermodynamic atmospheric variability from surface to 70 km. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Shuttle program, which launches from KSC, utilizes the KSC RRA data to evaluate environmental constraints on various aspects of the vehicle during ascent. An update to the KSC RRA was recently completed. As part of the update, the Natural Environments Branch at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) conducted a validation study and a comparison analysis to the existing KSC RRA database version 1983. Assessments to the Space Shuttle vehicle ascent profile characteristics were performed by JSC/Ascent Flight Design Division to determine impacts of the updated model to the vehicle performance. Details on the model updates and the vehicle sensitivity analyses with the update model are presented.
This report discusses the ghgas IC project which when applied, allows for an evaluation of LANL's HIGRAD model which can be used to create atmospheric simulations.
Climate models often underestimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation. We compare the performance of a high-resolution (~0.25°) time-slice atmospheric simulation (1979–2005) of the Community Earth System Model 1.0 in representing daily extreme precipitation events against those of the same model at lower resolutions (~1° and 2°). We find significant increases in the simulated levels of daily extreme precipitation over Europe, the United States, and Australia. In many cases the increase in high percentiles (>95th) of daily precipitation leads to better agreement with observational data sets. For lower percentiles, we find that increasing resolution does not significantly increase values of simulated precipitation. We argue that the reduced biases mainly result from the higher resolution models resolving more key physical processes controlling heavy precipitation. Lastly, we conclude that while high resolution is vital for accurately simulating extreme precipitation, considerable biases remain at the highest available model resolutions.
Global Climate Model tuning (calibration) is a tedious and time-consuming process, with high-dimensional input and output fields. Experts typically tune by iteratively running climate simulations with hand-picked values of tuning parameters. Many, in both the statistical and climate literature, have proposed alternative calibration methods, but most are impractical or difficult to implement. We present a practical, robust, and rigorous calibration approach on the atmosphere-only model of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. Our approach can be summarized into two main parts: (a) the training of a surrogate that predicts E3SM output in a fraction of the time compared to running E3SM, and (b) gradient-based parameter optimization. To train the surrogate, we generate a set of designed ensemble runs that span our input parameter space and use polynomial chaos expansions on a reduced output space to fit the E3SM output. We use this surrogate in an optimization scheme to identify values of the input parameters for which our model best matches gridded spatial fields of climate observations. To validate our choice of parameters, we run E3SMv2 with the optimal parameter values and compare prediction results to expertly-tuned simulations across 45 different output fields. This flexible, robust, and automated approach is straightforward to implement, and we demonstrate that the resulting model output matches present day climate observations as well or better than the corresponding output from expert tuned parameter values, while considering high-dimensional output and operating in a fraction of the time.
Circumbinary planets experience a time-varying irradiation pattern as they orbit their two host stars. In this work, we present the first detailed study of the atmospheric effects of this irradiation pattern on known and hypothetical gaseous circumbinary planets. Using both a one-dimensional energy balance model (EBM) and a three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM), we look at the temperature differences between circumbinary planets and their equivalent single-star cases in order to determine the nature of the atmospheres of these planets. We find that for circumbinary planets on stable orbits around their host stars, temperature differences are on average no more than 1.0% in the most extreme cases. Based on detailed modeling with the GCM, we find that these temperature differences are not large enough to excite circulation differences between the two cases. We conclude that gaseous circumbinary planets can be treated as their equivalent single-star case in future atmospheric modeling efforts.
The primary report to which this document appends provides the background, methodology, and outputs for the development of constituent-specific tables of specific heats as functions of temperature and pressure. These tables are used by the GRAM Suite to compute speed of sound by a process detailed in the primary report. The current document details verification and validation testing that was performed on the contents and implementation of the output tables.
This panel will explore the use of technologies and methods that enhance our understanding of eagle behavior in and near wind energy facilities. The decreasing costs of tracking technologies and substantial computational capabilities are allowing for finer resolution and confidence of eagle observations and the modeling of such datasets increase our understanding of their movements and use of airspace and underlying landscapes. Behavior ecologists' intrinsic knowledge of eagle behavior can augment and further enhance inferences from technology-derived information alone, e.g., GPS, camera, radar, etc. The panel will discuss the state of science and, given the cost-effective tools available, what research objectives are emerging to better assess and reduce wind-eagle risk. The discussion will focus on the following areas: Integrating Behavioral and Quantitative Ecologist perspectives of bald eagle and golden eagle behavior and wind energy risk; Regional-scale vs. facility-scale investigations of bald eagle and golden eagle use of airspace. For example, avoidance behavior to assess risk at facility-scale, and eagle use of landscapes, e.g., territories, nesting, and life-cycle behavior; Bald eagle and golden eagle use of airspace and nexus with atmospheric flow dynamics of wind energy generation; GPS, biomonitoring, tracking camera, radar, and other tools/techniques for deepening the knowledge of eagle behavior in and around wind farms.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and a major ozone-depleting substance (ODS). Its main sources include anthropogenic activities (mostly agriculture) and natural emissions from ocean and soils. However, emission estimates for individual sources are highly variable due to uncertainties in N2O lifetime estimates and partitioning among sources. We derive annual global N2O emissions for 1990-2019 using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) surface N2O observations and the N2O lifetime calculated in the NASA GEOS-5 chemistry climate model (CCM). The inferred global mean N2O emissions has gradually increased from ~15.8 TgN/yr in the early 1990s to ~17.8 TgN/yr in the 2010s. This implies that anthropogenic N2O emissions have grown rapidly from ~6.7 TgN/yr in the 1990s to about ~8.7 TgN/yr in the 2010s, a ~30% increase. With specially designed N2O isotopic tracers in 3-D GEOSCCM, we estimate that, on global average, stratospheric enrichment contributes about +7.7‰/yr, +7.6‰/yr, +8.0‰/yr to tropospheric N(sup α)-δ(sup 15), N(sup β)-δ(sup 15), and O-δ(sup 18) budget, respectively. To balance the global mean isotopic signature for pre-industrial terrestrial sources of N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ 6.7‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -12.6‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 35.4‰, our 3-D isotopic budget simulation using the GEOSCCM suggests global mean anthropogenic isotopic signatures in the recent decades are N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ -18‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -20‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 19‰. These anthropogenic isotopic estimates are significantly lighter than results from one-box atmospheric model-based estimates with the largest difference seen for N(sup β)-δ(sup 15). More surface isotopic measurements are needed to better quantify the N2O isotopic signatures.
Five empirical models were compared with 13 data sets, including both atmospheric drag-based data and mass spectrometer data. The most recently published model, MSIS-86, was found to be the best model overall with an accuracy around 15 percent. The excellent overall agreement of the mass spectrometer-based MSIS models with the drag data, including both the older data from orbital decay and the newer accelerometer data, suggests that the absolute calibration of the (ensemble of) mass spectrometers and the assumed drag coefficient in the atomic oxygen regime are consistent to 5 percent. This study illustrates a number of reasons for the current accuracy limit such as calibration accuracy and unmodeled trends. Nevertheless, the largest variations in total density in the thermosphere are accounted for, to a very high degree, by existing models. The greatest potential for improvements is in areas where we still have insufficient data (like the lower thermosphere or exosphere), where there are disagreements in technique (such as the exosphere) which can be resolved, or wherever generally more accurate measurements become available.
Analysis of very long baseline interferometry data indicates that systematic errors in prior estimates of baseline length, of order 5 cm for approximately 8000-km baselines, were due primarily to mismodeling of the electrical path length of the troposphere and mesosphere ('atmospheric delay'). Here observational evidence for the existence of such errors in the previously used models for the atmospheric delay is discussed, and a new 'mapping' function for the elevation angle dependence of this delay is developed. The delay predicted by this new mapping function differs from ray trace results by less than approximately 5 mm, at all elevations down to 5 deg elevation, and introduces errors into the estimates of baseline length of less than about 1 cm, for the multistation intercontinental experiment analyzed here.
We present an extended grid of mean three-dimensional (3D) spectra for low-mass, pure-hydrogen atmosphere DA white dwarfs (WDs). We use CO5BOLD radiation-hydrodynamics 3D simulations covering T{sub eff} = 6000–11,500 K and log g = 5–6.5 (g in cm s{sup −2}) to derive analytical functions to convert spectroscopically determined 1D temperatures and surface gravities to 3D atmospheric parameters. Along with the previously published 3D models, the 1D to 3D corrections are now available for essentially all known convective DA WDs (i.e., log g = 5–9). For low-mass WDs, the correction in temperature is relatively small (a few percent at the most), but the surface gravities measured from the 3D models are lower by as much as 0.35 dex. We revisit the spectroscopic analysis of the extremely low-mass (ELM) WDs, and demonstrate that the 3D models largely resolve the discrepancies seen in the radius and mass measurements for relatively cool ELM WDs in eclipsing double WD and WD + millisecond pulsar binary systems. We also use the 3D corrections to revise the boundaries of the ZZ Ceti instability strip, including the recently found ELM pulsators.
We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.
For spacecraft missions to Mars, especially the navigation of Martian orbiters and landers, an extensive knowledge of the Martian atmosphere is extremely important. The generally-accepted NASA standard for modeling (MarsGRAM), which was developed at Marshall Space Flight Center. MarsGRAM is useful for task such as aerobraking, performance analysis and operations planning for aerobraking, entry descent and landing, and aerocapture. Unfortunately, the densities for the Martian atmosphere in MarsGRAM are based on table look-up and not on an analytical algorithm. Also, these values can vary drastically from the densities actually experienced by the spacecraft. This does not have much of an impact on simple integrations but drastically affects its usefulness in other applications, especially those in navigation. For example, the navigation team for the Mars Atmosphere Volatile Environment (MAVEN) Project uses MarsGRAM to target the desired atmospheric density for the orbiter's pariapse passage, its closet approach to the planet. After the satellite's passage through pariapsis the computed density is compared to the MarsGRAM model and a scale factor is assigned to the model to account for the difference. Therefore, large variations in the atmosphere from the model can cause unexpected deviations from the spacecraft's planned trajectory. In order to account for this, an analytic stochastic model of the scale factor's behavior is desired. The development of this model will allow for the MAVEN navigation team to determine the probability of various Martian atmospheric variations and their effects on the spacecraft.
A simulation study was carried out to characterize atmospheric effects in LANDSAT-D Thematic Mapper data. In particular, the objective was to determine if any differences would result from using a linear vs. a conical scanning geometry. Insight also was gained about the overall effect of the atmosphere on Thematic Mapper signals, together with the effects of time of day. An added analysis was made of the geometric potential for direct specular reflections (sun glint). The ERIM multispectral system simulation model was used to compute inband Thematic Mapper radiances, taking into account sensor, atmospheric, and surface characteristics. Separate analyses were carried out for the thermal band and seven bands defined in the reflective spectral region. Reflective-region radiances were computed for 40 deg N, 0 deg, and 40 deg S latitudes; June, Mar., and Dec. days; and 9:30 and 11:00 AM solar times for both linear and conical scan modes. Also, accurate simulations of solar and viewing geometries throughout Thematic Mapper orbits were made. It is shown that the atmosphere plays an important role in determining Thematic Mapper radiances, with atmospheric path radiance being the major component of total radiances for short wavelengths and decreasing in importance as wavelength increases. Path radiance is shown to depend heavily on the direct radiation scattering angle and on haze content. Scan-angle-dependent variations were shown to be substantial, especially for the short-wavelength bands.
Topics are presented on the updating of CIRA, the trace constituents of the middle and upper atmosphere, and the localized response of the lower thermosphere and ionosphere at high latitude. Papers are presented on mean temperature fields in the lower thermosphere, a comparison of the thermosphere total density model TD 88 with CIRA 86, improved reference models for the middle-atmosphere ozone, a reference model for CH4 and N2O and trends, reference models for thermospheric NO, and a simulation of odd nitrogen distribution in the thermosphere. Other papers are on the response of the ionosphere-thermosphere system to magnetospheric forcing, microinstabilities driven by nonthermal plasma in the high-latitude F-region, the characteristics of the high-latitude trough, the lower thermospheric coupling study of the CEDAR and WITS programs, and numerical simulations of the seasonal response of the thermosphere to propagating tides.
This study investigates the potential of DUSTRAN, a dust dispersion modeling system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, to model the transport of sea salt aerosols (SSA). Results from DUSTRAN simulations run with historical meteorological data were compared against privately-measured chloride data at the near coastal Maine Yankee Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and the Environmental Protection Agency-measured CASTNET data from Acadia National Park (NP). The comparisons have provided both encouragement as to the practical value of DUSTRAN’s CALPUFF model and suggestions for further software development opportunities. All modeled concentrations were within one order of magnitude of those measured and a few test cases showed excellent agreement between modeled and measured concentrations. However, there is a lack of consistency in discrepancy which may be due to inaccurate extrapolation of meteorological data, underlying model physics, and the source term. Future research will refine the software to better capture physical phenomena. Overall, results indicate that with parameter refinement, DUSTRAN has the potential to simulate atmospheric chloride transport from known sources to inland sites for the purpose of determining the corrosion susceptibility of various structures, systems, and components at the site.