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DOE OSTI2022

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050. The PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy study, led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), will leverage world-class expertise, cross-sector modeling capabilities, and community engagement to generate feasible pathways to affordable and reliable electricity across the archipelago. PR100 is being funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency through an interagency agreement with DOE's Office of Electricity to support recovery efforts in the island's energy sector leveraging the expertise and capabilities of the National Laboratories including Argonne, Lawrence Berkeley, NREL, Oak Ridge, Pacific Northwest, and Sandia. The public is invited to this virtual launch event to learn more about the scope and benefits of the study and opportunities for engagement. Welcoming remarks will be provided by Jennifer M. Granholm, Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy; Martin Keller, Director of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory; and Deanne Criswell, Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

100% renewable energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Midwest Nuclear-based Net-Zero Carbon Steelmaking Demonstration

Globally, the iron and steel industry accounts for around a quarter of GHG emissions from the manufacturing sector , which is about 7% of the 33 gigatonnes (Gt) of global CO 2 emissions . Thus, globally, the steel industry is a 2-3 Gt CO 2 per year emissions challenge. The steel industry is important to the U.S. economy with output equal to $0.5 trillion and domestic production capacity is critical to national defense, infrastructure, energy production, and transportation. President Biden’s executive order on climate identifies actions and policies to put the Nation on a path to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050. To achieve this, deep carbon reductions in the power, transportation, buildings and capital-intensive industrial manufacturing segments such as steel, cement and chemicals need to be addressed. In its recent “Accelerating Decarbonization of the U.S. Energy System” report , the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) stated that, “while technology exists to decarbonize all parts of the energy system, some sectors remain at precommercial or first-of-a-kind demonstration stages and require significant improvement in cost and performance to become commercially viable.” The NAS goes on to state that these hard to decarbonize sectors include “aviation, shipping, and industrial subsectors such as steel, cement, and chemicals manufacturing .” The Administration has proposed a timeline to decarbonize energy, transportation and then industry and manufacturing. From a life-cycle approach, decarbonizing steel and other large industrial inputs are necessary to decarbonize transformations in energy and transportation. DOE’s TRI-Lab Consortium’s Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is a collaboration amongst DOE’s three applied energy laboratories: the National Energy Technology Laboratory; National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory. The IES approach looks at more tightly integrating low-carbon nuclear energy, renewable electricity, energy storage, load/demand balancing, and biomass (including plastics and other wastes) with one or more industrial processes that utilize heat and/or power from these clean and waste energy sources to produce a low-carbon commodity-scale product.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Basic Energy Sciences Roundtable: Foundational Science for Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies (Brochure)

Basic research to identify and understand the fundamental principles governing carbon dioxide removal processes of capture, conversion, and storage is essential for achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050. In March 2022, the Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES)—in coordination with the US Department of Energy (DOE) technology Offices of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, and Nuclear Energy—held a roundtable titled, “Foundational Science for Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies,” to discuss the scientific and technical barriers for CO 2 capture, conversion, and storage. Five priority research opportunities were identified to address these scientific and technical challenges and accelerate progress toward the realization of zero carbon emissions. The PROs are as follows: 1) Master Interfacial Processes of CO2 Transport and Reactivity Across Multiple Length and Time Scales; 2) Create Materials that Simultaneously Exhibit Multiple Properties for CO 2 Capture and Release or Conversion; 3) Discover Unconventional Pathways for Energy-Efficient CO 2 Capture, Release, and Conversion; 4) Control Multiphase Interactions Required for CO 2 Conversion into Minerals and Materials; and 5) Achieve Predictive Understanding of Coupled Processes in Complex Subsurface Geologic Systems for Secure Carbon Storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grid Energy Storage: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the Federal Government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the Federal Government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. To combat the climate crisis and avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, the U.S. is committed to achieving a 50 to 52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution by 2030, creating a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035, and achieving net zero emissions economy-wide by no later than 2050. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recognizes that a secure, resilient supply chain will be critical in harnessing emissions outcomes and capturing the economic opportunity inherent in the energy sector transition. Potential vulnerabilities and risks to the energy sector industrial base must be addressed throughout every stage of this transition. The DOE energy supply chain strategy report summarizes the key elements of the energy supply chain as well as the strategies the U.S. Government is starting to employ to address them. Additionally, it describes recommendations for Congressional action. DOE has identified technologies and crosscutting topics for analysis in the one-year time frame set by the Executive Order. Along with the capstone policy report, DOE is releasing 11 deep dive assessment documents, including this one, covering the following technology sectors: carbon capture materials; electric grid including transformers and high voltage direct current (HVDC); energy storage; fuel cells and electrolyzers; hydropower including pumped storage hydropower (PSH); neodymium magnets; nuclear energy; platinum group metals and other catalysts; semiconductors; solar photovoltaics (PV); and wind. DOE is also releasing two deep dive assessments on the following crosscutting topics: Commercialization and competitiveness; and cybersecurity and digital components. More information can be found at www.energy.gov/policy/supplychains.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Semiconductor: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

In February 2021, President Biden signed Executive Order (EO) 14017, “America’s Supply Chains,” directing seven executive agencies to evaluate the resilience and security of the nation’s critical supply chains and to craft strategies for six industrial bases that underpin America’s economic and national security. See Sec. 3(b) of E.O. 14017. As part of the one-year response to EO 14017, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through the national laboratories, conducted evaluations of the supply chains that encompass the Energy Sector Industrial Base, with a particular focus on technologies required to decarbonize the U.S. by 2050. This report focuses on one of these technologies, semiconductors, both conventional and wide bandgap (WBG) power electronics (PE). As noted in the 100-Day report, conventional semiconductors are a keystone technology that are essential for the operation of nearly every electronic device, including those that are critical to decarbonization, such as electric vehicles (EVs), industrial and building applications, and electricity generation and end use. In addition, power electronics have been applied to industrial equipment to improve energy efficiency and enhance controllability. Power electronics have also been used to improve the reliability of data centers and critical infrastructure, including the stabilization of the electric grid while subjected to disturbances. Increasingly, power electronics are being used to integrate renewable energy and battery storage systems, enabling new grid services and the development of microgrids. It is estimated that 30% of the electricity used in the U.S. passes through power electronic devices, and studies suggest that this number could reach 80% as power electronics are deployed in more markets. Nearly all forms of electrified transportation will depend on power electronics. Power electronic systems utilize high-capacity semiconductor devices at their core. The continued growth in power electronics depends on sustained innovation in the semiconductor industry.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Competitiveness and Commercialization of Energy Technologies: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Six-Month Progress Update [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation provides a six-month progress update on the study, including presentation of four initial scenario frameworks defined with extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing and Innovation Circular Economy for Wind Workshop Report

Wind turbine blade waste is anticipated to amount to approximately 2.2 million tons or more by 2050 (more than the equivalent weight of 6 empire state buildings). However, no existing recycling technologies for the composites in wind turbines are currently at cost-parity with landfilling. As such, there is little industrial drive to recycle these materials, so they are currently buried. If it were possible to develop a circular economy for wind blades it could directly reduce material feedstock costs for many composites industries, facilitate the tremendous, anticipated growth of the domestic off-shore wind energy sector, and help the U.S. achieve net-zero manufacturing and energy generation. However, to enable circular economies for wind blades, several questions need to be answered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) (Six-Month Progress Update) [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation was delivered in a public webinar on July 21, 2022, providing a high level summary of the progress in the first six months of the study, including presentation of four initial scenario definitions based on extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of Renewable Energy, Storage, and Demand Response in Karnataka's Power Sector Future

Karnataka ranks fourth among Indian states in installed capacity of renewable energy, which accounts for over 50% of its resource mix. The state is positioned to play a leading role in India's energy transition and contribute to meeting national targets for renewable energy thanks, in part, to ambitious state goals to develop Karnataka's abundant zero carbon energy resources and plans to phase out new investments in thermal plants. Power system stakeholders in Karnataka are faced with the challenge of planning a generation portfolio that accounts for the variability of wind and solar resources, meets increasing and shifting electricity demand, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. The objective of this study is to evaluate least-cost pathways for Karnataka's electric power system through 2050. The capacity expansion model developed for this study identifies power system investment and operational decisions for every year (2020-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation of the state of Karnataka. The study led to five high-level results and provides a framework for recurring planning studies to meet changing system conditions and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting Distributed PV Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia [Slides]

The objective of the dGen Colombia project is to provide projections to 2050 on distributed PV deployment by sector for a range of scenarios for Barranquilla, Colombia. NREL used the open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) adapted for international projects for this analysis. As part of this analysis, technical potential, economic potential, and adoption projections of rooftop and groundmount PV for the city of Barranquilla are presented. Five main scenarios and their combinations were modeled to provide insight on the impact of increased demand from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and time-of-use tariffs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

The growing climate emergency requires a dramatic and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and internationally. This study evaluates a variety of 100% clean electricity system scenarios in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050, specifically focusing on technical requirements, challenges, and cost implications. The results highlight there are multiple approaches to cost-effectively achieve a net-zero carbon grid in 2035.

100% clean electricity↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transiciones a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100): Actualizacion de Progreso de Seis Meses [Slides]

Puerto Rico se ha comprometido a satisfacer sus necesidades de electricidad con un 100% de energia renovable para 2050, junto con el cumplimiento de objetivos intermedios del 40% para 2025, el 60% para 2040, la eliminacion gradual de la generacion a base de carbon para 2028, y una mejora del 30% en la eficiencia energetica para 2040, segun lo establecido en la Ley de Politica Publica Energetica de Puerto Rico (Ley 17). Desde los huracanes Irma y Maria en septiembre de 2017, DOE y sus laboratorios nacionales han proporcionado a las partes interesadas del sistema energetico de Puerto Rico herramientas, adiestramiento y apoyo de modelaje para permitir la planificacion y el funcionamiento de la red electrica con mas resiliencia frente a nuevas interrupciones. El 2 de febrero de 2022, DOE, FEMA y seis laboratorios nacionales lanzaron el Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transicion a la Energia 100% Renovable (PR100), de dos anos de duracion, para llevar a cabo un analisis exhaustivo de las vias impulsadas por las partes interesadas para el futuro energetico de Puerto Rico. El analisis energetico, solido y objetivo, comprende cinco actividades, con enfasis en la confiabilidad del sistema electrico, la resiliencia y la planificacion de la generacion. Esta presentacion se realizo en un seminario web publico el 21 de julio del 2022, proporcionando un resumen general del progreso en los primeros seis meses del Estudio, incluyendo la presentacion de cuatro escenarios iniciales definidos mediante un rol activo de las partes interesadas. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/PR-6A20-83431.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transicion a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100): Actualizacion de Progreso de Seis Meses [Slides]

Puerto Rico se ha comprometido a satisfacer sus necesidades de electricidad con un 100% de energia renovable para 2050, junto con el cumplimiento de objetivos intermedios del 40% para 2025, el 60% para 2040, la eliminacion gradual de la generacion a base de carbon para 2028, y una mejora del 30% en la eficiencia energetica para 2040, segun lo establecido en la Ley de Politica Publica Energetica de Puerto Rico (Ley 17). Desde los huracanes Irma y Maria en septiembre de 2017, DOE y sus laboratorios nacionales han proporcionado a las partes interesadas del sistema energetico de Puerto Rico herramientas, adiestramiento y apoyo de modelaje para permitir la planificacion y el funcionamiento de la red electrica con mas resiliencia frente a nuevas interrupciones. El 2 de febrero de 2022, DOE, FEMA y seis laboratorios nacionales lanzaron el Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transicion a la Energia 100% Renovable (PR100), de dos anos de duracion, para llevar a cabo un analisis exhaustivo de las vias impulsadas por las partes interesadas para el futuro energetico de Puerto Rico. El analisis energetico, solido y objetivo, comprende cinco actividades, con enfasis en la confiabilidad del sistema electrico, la resiliencia y la planificacion de la generacion. Esta presentacion provee una actualizacion de progreso del trabajo de seis meses sobre el Estudio, incluyendo la presentacion de cuatro escenarios iniciales definidos mediante un rol activo de las partes interesadas. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/PR-6A20-83432.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Roles and Impacts of PV-Battery Hybrids in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity Supply

In this paper, we explore the potential impacts of growing industry interest in hybrid systems comprising PV and battery technologies on the results and findings of the Solar Futures Study (DOE 2021). We employ similar scenario definitions in the same ReEDS capacity expansion model, but we perform two versions of each scenario: one in which PV and battery technologies must be deployed separately (No Hybrids), and one in which the model has the option of deploying them together as PVB hybrids (With Hybrids). By comparing the No Hybrids and With Hybrids versions of each scenario, we isolate the impacts of hybridization on the outcomes and findings of the Solar Futures Study. We find that PVB hybrid configurations capture a sizable share of PV deployment, and the highest-net-value PVB hybrid configuration depends strongly on policy conditions. A power sector decarbonization policy generally increases the value proposition of a more forward-looking PVB hybrid configuration that involves significant oversizing of the PV arrays, a larger battery (which facilitates greater recovery and utilization of otherwise clipped energy), and a higher capacity factor. The growing deployment of PVB hybrid configurations primarily displaces standalone PV capacity, such that total installed PV capacity is largely unaffected by the availability of PVB hybrid configurations. However, the higher capacity factors associated with PVB hybrid configurations drive a modest (1-2 percentage point) increase in PV's share of U.S. electricity supply in 2050. Finally, introducing the PVB hybrid configurations influences the future role and makeup of battery storage technologies, and it reduces the required transmission expansion, particularly under scenarios that involve a power sector decarbonization policy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind Energy Costs in Puerto Rico Through 2035

In 2019, Puerto Rico codified into law a 100% renewable electricity by 2050 target. Decision makers there need information about the costs and performance of wind energy technologies to incorporate into planning efforts for the future grid. After consulting with key technical stakeholders and accounting for unique conditions in Puerto Rico like increased hurricane risks, we customize NREL's Renewable Energy Potential model to calculate how capital expenditures, operational expenditures, net annual energy generation, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) vary in time and space for wind energy projects around Puerto Rico. Wind turbines can add value by providing grid services through grid-forming inverters and complement solar energy generation with evening and nighttime electricity production, especially offshore. By 2035, we expect average costs of land-based and offshore wind energy in Puerto Rico to reach $\$$69/MWh (6.9 cents/kWh) and $\$$100/MWh (10 cents/kWh), respectively. While these projections do not include transmission system upgrade costs, they do suggest that low-cost, clean electricity is possible for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗