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NASA NTRS2014

A Statistical Treatment of Bioassay Pour Fractions

The binomial probability distribution is used to treat the statistics of a microbiological sample that is split into two parts, with only one part evaluated for spore count. One wishes to estimate the total number of spores in the sample based on the counts obtained from the part that is evaluated (pour fraction). Formally, the binomial distribution is recharacterized as a function of the observed counts (successes), with the total number (trials) an unknown. The pour fraction is the probability of success per spore (trial). This distribution must be renormalized in terms of the total number. Finally, the new renormalized distribution is integrated and mathematically inverted to yield the maximum estimate of the total number as a function of a desired level of confidence ( P(<n)=LOC ). Selected results of the indicated numerical calculations are presented. For LOC=0.5, or the likely value, the estimates differ little from the usual calculation: the number of spores counted divided by the pour fraction. The extension to recovery efficiency corrections is also presented. Now the product of recovery efficiency and pour fraction may be small enough that the likely value may be much larger than the usual calculation: the number of spores divided by that product. The use of this analysis would not be limited to microbiological data.

000000↗

NASA NTRS2000

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

Fields, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Organic synthesis in the outer Solar System: Recent laboratory simulations for Titan, the Jovian planets, Triton and comets

We tabulate the most abundant gases and their radiation yields, for two experimental pressures: 0.24 mb, more relevant to upper atmosphere excitation, and 17 mb, more relevant to tropospheric, cosmic ray excitation. The yields computed in the 0.24 mb experiment combined with measured electronic fluxes and a simple, eddy diffusion model of Titan's atmosphere predict abundances of detected molecules in agreement with those found by Voyager and for heavier products, in somewhat better agreement with observation than photochemical absolute reaction rate kinetics models. All Voyager organics are accounted for and no detectable products are found that Voyager did not detect. A striking increase of products with multiple bonds is found with decreasing pressure. Hydrocarbon abundances decline slowly with increasing carbon number. Additionally, we list preliminary estimates for the yield of the heteropolymer, which seems to be produced in a quantity comparable (in moles of C+N consumed) to the total amount of gaseous product. The production rate required to sustain Titan's haze against sedimentation also indicates yields of this order. As can be seen from the table, over 10(exp 9) years substantial amounts of these products can accumulate on the surface -- ranging from cm thickness for the (C+N equals 4) species to a meter or more for HCN and C2H2; we also expect a meter or more of tholins. Similar analyses have been or are being done for the Jovian planets and Triton. Charged particle irradiation of hydrocarbon clathrates or mixed hydrocarbon/water ices produces a range of organic products, reddening and darkening of the ices and characteristic infrared spectra. From such spectra, the predicted emission by fine particles in cometary comae well-matches the observed 3.4 micron emission spectra of Comet Halley and other recent comets. Heliocentric evolution of organic emission features in comets is predicted. Organic products of such ice irradiation may account for colors and albedos on some of the satellites in the outer solar system, especially Triton and Pluto, where solid methane is known to exist.

Sagan, C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Importance of Geosat orbit and tidal errors in the estimation of large-scale Indian Ocean variations

To improve the estimate accuracy of large-scale meridional sea-level variations, Geosat ERM data on the Indian Ocean for a 26-month period were processed using two different techniques of orbit error reduction. The first technique removes an along-track polynomial of degree 1 over about 5000 km and the second technique removes an along-track once-per-revolution sine wave about 40,000 km. Results obtained show that the polynomial technique produces stronger attenuation of both the tidal error and the large-scale oceanic signal. After filtering, the residual difference between the two methods represents 44 percent of the total variance and 23 percent of the annual variance. The sine-wave method yields a larger estimate of annual and interannual meridional variations.

Perigaud, Claire↗

NASA NTRS2019

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Quantum Algorithm to Simulate Open Quantum Systems

Given the advent of quantum algorithms for a wide array of problems in linear algebra and machine learning, it is important to develop general methods for the simulation of arbitrary (ie non-unitary) operators on quantum hardware. In this talk, we present a novel quantum algorithm based on the quantum singular value transformation (QSVT) to apply an arbitrary operator K to some input state and subsequently estimate the expectation value of some observable. Our construction then immediately yields a route to estimating observables of states undergoing open quantum dynamics, whose effect is captured by a set of non-unitary Kraus operators. Our algorithm succeeds deterministically given the Sz-Nagy dilation, and we provide details on the algorithm's query and gate complexity, numerical verification, and comparisons with prior methods.

Quantum computing↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mass balance approaches for estimating the intestinal absorption and metabolism of peptides and analogues: theoretical development and applications

A theoretical analysis for estimating the extent of intestinal peptide and peptide analogue absorption was developed on the basis of a mass balance approach that incorporates convection, permeability, and reaction. The macroscopic mass balance analysis (MMBA) was extended to include chemical and enzymatic degradation. A microscopic mass balance analysis, a numerical approach, was also developed and the results compared to the MMBA. The mass balance equations for the fraction of a drug absorbed and reacted in the tube were derived from the general steady state mass balance in a tube: [formula: see text] where M is mass, z is the length of the tube, R is the tube radius, Pw is the intestinal wall permeability, kr is the reaction rate constant, C is the concentration of drug in the volume element over which the mass balance is taken, VL is the volume of the tube, and vz is the axial velocity of drug. The theory was first applied to the oral absorption of two tripeptide analogues, cefaclor (CCL) and cefatrizine (CZN), which degrade and dimerize in the intestine. Simulations using the mass balance equations, the experimental absorption parameters, and the literature stability rate constants yielded a mean estimated extent of CCL (250-mg dose) and CZN (1000-mg dose) absorption of 89 and 51%, respectively, which was similar to the mean extent of absorption reported in humans (90 and 50%). It was proposed previously that 15% of the CCL dose spontaneously degraded systematically; however, our simulations suggest that significant CCL degradation occurs (8 to 17%) presystemically in the intestinal lumen.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1978

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Feasibility of assessing crop condition and yield from LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. Yield modelling for crop production estimation derived a means of predicting the within-a-year yield and the year-to-year variability of yield over some fixed or randomly located unit of area. Preliminary studies indicated that the requirements for interpreting LANDSAT data for yield may be sufficiently similar to those of signature extension that it is feasible to investigate the automated estimation of production. The concept of an advanced yield model consisting of both spectral and meteorological components was endorsed. Rationale for using meteorological parameters originated from known between season and near harvest dynamics in crop environmental-condition-yield relationships.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1972

Control of linear uncertain systems utilizing mismatched state observers

The control of linear continuous dynamical systems is investigated as a problem of limited state feedback control. The equations which describe the structure of an observer are developed constrained to time-invarient systems. The optimal control problem is formulated, accounting for the uncertainty in the design parameters. Expressions for bounds on closed loop stability are also developed. The results indicate that very little uncertainty may be tolerated before divergence occurs in the recursive computation algorithms, and the derived stability bound yields extremely conservative estimates of regions of allowable parameter variations.

Goldstein, B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Discrete-time demodulation of continuous-time signals.

Nonlinear stochastic estimation theory is applied to the problem of obtaining discrete-time demodulator structures for the common types of analog communication signals. A stochastic communication model is presented that can be treated with current results in estimation theory. Approximate algorithms are developed for the estimation problem that yield mathematically realizable receiver structures for the cases of AM, PC, and FM. The digital receivers yield performance characteristics that compare favorably with those of their analog counterparts.

Kelly, C. N.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Maximization of the region of exponential absolute stability.

The problem of selecting a regulator vector which yields the largest estimate of the region of exponential absolute stability is considered. Reformulation of an extended version of the Popov frequency condition in terms of a nonnegative polynomial gives the desired algorithm in mathematical programming format.

Karmarkar, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A method for calculating aerodynamic heating on sounding rocket tangent ogive noses

A method is presented for calculating the aerodynamic heating and shear stresses at the wall for tangent ogive noses that are slender enough to maintain an attached nose shock through that portion of flight during which heat transfer from the boundary layer to the wall is significant. The lower entropy of the attached nose shock combined with the inclusion of the streamwise pressure gradient yields a reasonable estimate of the actual flow conditions. Both laminar and turbulent boundary layers are examined and an approximation of the effects of (up to) moderate angles-of-attack is included in the analysis. The analytical method has been programmed in FORTRAN 4 for an IBM 360/91 computer.

Wing, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Mariner 9 television observations of Phobos and Deimos.

Mariner 9 photographs of Phobos and Deimos have yielded new information about the orbits, rotation periods, sizes, shapes, and surface characteristics of the satellites. Both satellites appear to be in synchronous rotation. They are irregular, heavily cratered bodies whose shapes appear to have been determined largely by impact fragmentation and spalling. The surfaces of both satellites have crater densities close to saturation and nearly identical, very low albedos. Lower limits on the tensile and yield strengths are estimated, and it is concluded that both satellites may consist of well-consolidated, though possibly highly fractured material.

Pollack, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

A method for calculating aerodynamic heating on sounding rocket tangent ogive noses.

Wing, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Assembly and analysis of fragmentation data for liquid propellant vessels

Fragmentation data was assembled and analyzed for exploding liquid propellant vessels. These data were to be retrieved from reports of tests and accidents, including measurements or estimates of blast yield, etc. A significant amount of data was retrieved from a series of tests conducted for measurement of blast and fireball effects of liquid propellant explosions (Project PYRO), a few well-documented accident reports, and a series of tests to determine auto-ignition properties of mixing liquid propellants. The data were reduced and fitted to various statistical functions. Comparisons were made with methods of prediction for blast yield, initial fragment velocities, and fragment range. Reasonably good correlation was achieved. Methods presented in the report allow prediction of fragment patterns, given type and quantity of propellant, type of accident, and time of propellant mixing.

Baker, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

On the distance to Cygnus X-1

Interstellar extinction of 50 stars in the immediate vicinity of Cyg X-1 is compared with color excess of HDE 226868. The fact that HDE 226868 has extinction drastically exceeding that of all stars in the field at less than 1 kpc is believed to be in conflict with the model of Trimble et al. (1973) in which the primary is a luminous undermassive star and with other similar models. Uniform extrapolation of the reddening yields a distance estimate of (2.5 plus or minus 0.4) kpc for Cygnus X-1, in agreement with the spectroscopic modulus for an O9 star.

Margon, B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

On the inviscid rolled-up structure of lift-generated vortices

A simple form is presented of the relationships derived by Betz for the inviscid, fully developed structure of lift-generated vortices behind aircraft. An extension is then made to arbitrary span-load distributions by inferring guidelines for the selection of rollup centers for the vortex sheet. These techniques are easier to use and yield more realistic estimates of the rolled-up structure of vortices than the original form of Betz' theory when the span loading differs appreciably from elliptic loading.

Rossow, V. J.↗