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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cryo-EM confirms a common fibril fold in the heart of four patients with ATTRwt amyloidosis

ATTR amyloidosis results from the conversion of transthyretin into amyloid fibrils that deposit in tissues causing organ failure and death. This conversion is facilitated by mutations in ATTRv amyloidosis, or aging in ATTRwt amyloidosis. ATTRv amyloidosis exhibits extreme phenotypic variability, whereas ATTRwt amyloidosis presentation is consistent and predictable. Previously, we found unique structural variabilities in cardiac amyloid fibrils from polyneuropathic ATTRv-I84S patients. In contrast, cardiac fibrils from five genotypically different patients with cardiomyopathy or mixed phenotypes are structurally homogeneous. To understand fibril structure’s impact on phenotype, it is necessary to study the fibrils from multiple patients sharing genotype and phenotype. Here we show the cryo-electron microscopy structures of fibrils extracted from four cardiomyopathic ATTRwt amyloidosis patients. Our study confirms that they share identical conformations with minimal structural variability, consistent with their homogenous clinical presentation. Our study contributes to the understanding of ATTR amyloidosis biopathology and calls for further studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗
NASA NTRS1983

Measurement and analysis of critical crack tip processes associated with variable amplitude fatigue crack growth

Crack growth retardation following overloads can result in overly conservative life predictions in structures subjected to variable amplitude fatigue loading when linear damage accumulation procedures are employed. Crack closure is believed to control the crack growth retardation, although the specific closure mechanism is debatable. Information on the relative contributions to crack closure from: (1) plasticity left in the wake of the advancing crack and (2) crack tip residual stresses is provided. The delay period and corresponding crack growth rate transients following overloads are systematically measured as a function of load ratio (R) and overload magnitude. These responses are correlated in terms of the local 'driving force' for crack growth as measured by crack tip opening loads and delta K sub eff. The latter measurements are obtained using a scanning electron microscope equipped with a cyclic loading stage; measurements are quantified using a relatively new stereoimaging technique. Combining experimental results with analytical predictions suggests that both plastic wake and residual stress mechanism are operative, the latter becoming predominate as R increases.

Hudak, S. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗
NASA NTRS1982

Relation of agronomic and multispectral reflectance characteristics of spring wheat canopies

The relationships between crop canopy variables such as leaf area index (LAI) and their multispectral reflectance properties were investigated along with the potential for estimating canopy variables from remotely sensed reflectance measurements. Reflectance spectra over the 0.4 to 2.5 micron wavelength range were acquired during each of the major development stages of spring wheat canopies at Williston, North Dakota, during three seasons. Treatments included planting date, N fertilization, cultivar, and soil moisture. Agronomic measurements included development stage, biomass, LAI, and percent soil cover. High correlations were found between reflectance and percent cover, LAI, and biomass. A near infrared wavelength band, 0.76 to 0.90 microns, was most important in explaining variation in LAI and percent cover, while a middle infrared band, 2.08 to 2.35 microns, explained the most variation in biomass and plant water content. Transformations, including the near infrared/red reflectance ratio and greenness index, were also highly correlated to canopy variables. The relationship of canopy variables to reflectance decreased as the crop began to ripen. the canopy variables could be accurately predicted using measurements from three to five wavelength bands. The wavelength bands proposed for the thematic mapper sensor were more strongly related to the canopy variables than the LANDSAT MSS bands.

Bauer, M. E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring interlayer coupling in the twisted bilayer PtTe 2

We have investigated interlayer interactions in the bilayer PtTe 2 system, which influence the electronic energy bands near the Fermi level. Our diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) calculations for the high-symmetry bilayer stackings (AA, AB, AC) manifest distinct interlayer binding characteristics among the stacking modes by revealing significantly different interlayer separations depending on the stacking, which is critical to understanding the interlayer coupling of the twisted bilayers consisting of various local stacking arrangements. Furthermore, a comparison between the interlayer separations obtained from DMC and density functional theory (DFT) shows that meta-generalized gradient approximation (GGA)-based van der Waals–DFT results agree with DMC for different layer stackings, including twisted bilayers, but only the ground-state AA stacking matches well with GGA-based DFT predictions. This underscores the importance of accurate exchange-correlation potentials even for capturing the stacking-dependent interlayer binding properties. We further show that the variability in DFT-predicted interlayer separations is responsible for the large discrepancy of band structures in the 21 . 79 ∘ twisted bilayer PtTe 2 , affecting its classification as metallic or insulating. These results demonstrate the importance of obtaining a correct description of stacking-dependent interlayer coupling in modeling delicate bilayer systems at finite twists. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2000

Discriminability measures for predicting readability of text on textured backgrounds

Several discriminability measures were examined for their ability to predict reading search times for three levels of text contrast and a range of backgrounds (plain, a periodic texture, and four spatial-frequency-filtered textures created from the periodic texture). Search times indicate that these background variations only affect readability when the text contrast is low, and that spatial frequency content of the background affects readability. These results were not well predicted by the single variables of text contrast (Spearman rank correlation = -0.64) and background RMS contrast (0.08), but a global masking index and a spatial-frequency-selective masking index led to better predictions (-0.84 and -0.81, respectively). c2000 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evidence-Based Approach to the Analysis of Serious Decompression Sickness with Application to EVA Astronauts

It is important to understand the risk of serious hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) in order to develop procedures and treatment responses to mitigate the risk. Since it is not ethical to conduct prospective tests about serious DCS with humans, the necessary information was gathered from 73 published reports. We hypothesize that a 4-hr 100% oxygen (O2) prebreathe results in a very low risk of serious DCS, and test this through analysis. We evaluated 258 tests containing information from 79,366 exposures in attitude chambers. Serious DCS was documented in 918 men during the tests. Serious DCS are signs and symptoms broadly classified as Type II DCS. A risk function analysis with maximum likelihood optimization was performed to identify significant explanatory variables, and to create a predictive model for the probability of serious DCS [P(serious DCS)]. Useful variables were Tissue Ratio, the planned time spent at altitude (T(sub alt)), and whether or not repetitive exercise was performed at altitude. Tissue Ratio is P1N2/P2, where P1N2 is calculated nitrogen (N2) pressure in a compartment with a 180-min half-time for N2 pressure just before ascent, and P2 is ambient pressure after ascent. A prebreathe and decompression profile Shuttle astronauts use for extravehicular activity (EVA) includes a 4-hr prebreathe with 100% O2, an ascent to P2 = 4.3 lb per sq. in. absolute, and a T(sub alt) = 6 hr. The P(serious DCS) is: 0.0014 (0.00096 - 0.00196, 95% confidence interval) with exercise and 0.00025 (0.00016 - 0.00035) without exercise. Given 100 Shuttle EVAs to date and no report of serious DCS, the true risk is less than 0.03 with 95% confidence (Binomial Theorem). It is problematic to estimate the risk of serious DCS since it appears infrequently, even if the estimate is based on thousands of altitude chamber exposures. The true risk to astronauts may lie between the extremes of the confidence intervals (0.00016 - 0.00196) since the contribution of other factors, particularly exercise, to the risk of serious DCS during EVA is unknown. A simple model that only accounts for four important variables in retrospective data is still helpful to increase our understanding about the risk of serious DCS.

Conkin, Johnny↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗
NASA NTRS1988

Broad-line variability in NGC 5548

The possible explanations for the variability behavior of the He II 4686A and H-beta lines in the Seyfert galaxy NGC 5548 as observed by Peterson and Ferland (1986) are discussed. The range of variability expected from these lines is explored according to the standard models for broad-line clouds, assuming changes in the values of various of the clouds' defining parameters. When compared with model predictions, the observed line variability suggests the existence of a strong, variable EUV component of the ionizing spectrum and of two populations of clouds which differ in their velocity distributions and in their response to continuum variations.

Kallman, T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using aircraft measurements to characterize subgrid-scale variability of aerosol properties near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. Complex distributions of aerosol properties evolve in space and time as a function of emissions, new particle formation, coagulation, condensational growth, chemical transformation, phase changes, turbulent mixing and transport, removal processes, and ambient meteorological conditions. The ability of chemical transport models to represent the multi-scale processes affecting the life cycle of aerosols depends on their spatial resolution since aerosol properties are assumed to be constant within a grid cell. Subgrid-scale-dependent processes that affect aerosol populations could have a significant impact on the formation of particles, their growth to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sizes, aerosol–cloud interactions, dry deposition and rainout and hence their burdens, lifetimes, and radiative forcing. To address this issue, we characterize subgrid-scale variability in terms of measured aerosol number, size, composition, hygroscopicity, and CCN concentrations made by repeated aircraft flight paths over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystem (HI-SCALE) campaign. Subgrid variability is quantified in terms of both normalized frequency distributions and percentage difference percentiles using grid spacings of 3, 9, 27, and 81 km that represent those typically used by cloud-system-resolving models as well as the current and next-generation climate models. Even though the SGP site is a rural location, surprisingly large horizontal gradients in aerosol properties were frequently observed. For example, 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean organic matter concentrations differed from the 81 km cell around the SGP site by as much as ∼ 46 %, large spatial variability in aerosol number concentrations and size distributions were found during new particle formation events, and consequently 90 % of the 3, 9, and 27 km cell mean CCN number concentrations differed from the 81 km cell mean by as much as ∼ 38 %. The spatial variability varied seasonally for some aerosol properties, with some having larger spatial variability during the spring and others having larger variability during the late summer. While measurements at a single surface site cannot reflect the surrounding variability of aerosol properties at a given time, aircraft measurements that are averaged within an 81 km cell were found to be similar to many, but not all, aerosol properties measured at the ground SGP site. This analysis suggests that it is reasonable to directly compare most ground SGP site aerosol measurements with coarse global climate model predictions. In addition, the variability quantified by the aircraft can be used as an uncertainty range when comparing the surface point measurements with model predictions that use coarse grid spacings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts, processes and projections of the quasi-biennial oscillation

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. Here, the QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Neural Network Burst Pressure Prediction in Graphite/Epoxy Pressure Vessels from Acoustic Emission Amplitude Data

Acoustic emission (AE) data were taken during hydroproof for three sets of ASTM standard 5.75 inch diameter filament wound graphite/epoxy bottles. All three sets of bottles had the same design and were wound from the same graphite fiber; the only difference was in the epoxies used. Two of the epoxies had similar mechanical properties, and because the acoustic properties of materials are a function of their stiffnesses, it was thought that the AE data from the two sets might also be similar; however, this was not the case. Therefore, the three resin types were categorized using dummy variables, which allowed the prediction of burst pressures all three sets of bottles using a single neural network. Three bottles from each set were used to train the network. The resin category, the AE amplitude distribution data taken up to 25 % of the expected burst pressure, and the actual burst pressures were used as inputs. Architecturally, the network consisted of a forty-three neuron input layer (a single categorical variable defining the resin type plus forty-two continuous variables for the AE amplitude frequencies), a fifteen neuron hidden layer for mapping, and a single output neuron for burst pressure prediction. The network trained on all three bottle sets was able to predict burst pressures in the remaining bottles with a worst case error of + 6.59%, slightly greater than the desired goal of + 5%. This larger than desired error was due to poor resolution in the amplitude data for the third bottle set. When the third set of bottles was eliminated from consideration, only four hidden layer neurons were necessary to generate a worst case prediction error of - 3.43%, well within the desired goal.

Hill, Eric v. K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Exospheric temperatures during solar cycle 22

An analysis is conducted of the orbital decay of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite in order to develop an empirical model of the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm and of the exospheric temperature driving current atmospheric-density models at high radio fluxes. The Jacchia-Lineberry (1982) atmospheric model is used to fit a set of orbit semimajor axis observations to a predicted set whose only free variable was the exospheric temperature. A comparison of the exospheric temperatures with those predicted by the Jacchia (1977) model indicates increasing divergences above 1100 K, suggesting needed modifications to the model.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗