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DOE OSTI2023

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pulsed radio frequency power modulation for profile control in cryogenic reactive ion etching of silicon gratings

Cryogenic silicon etching with SF 6 /O 2 plasmas enables vertical sidewalls and smooth surfaces for high–aspect-ratio structures, yet precise control of etched profiles (sidewall angle, lateral etching, and linewidth retention) remains challenging under continuous-wave excitation due to coupling among radical fluxes, ion energy distributions, and in situ passivation dynamics. In this work, we investigated pulsed radio frequency bias delivery as a process knob for profile control during cryogenic silicon etching. Systematic experiments on 500 nm-wide, 1 μm-pitch gratings etched to 0.8–1.1 μm depth at 0.5–2 kHz pulsing frequency and 25%–75% duty cycle revealed strong dependencies of etch rate, linewidth, and sidewall angle on modulation conditions. We proposed a conceptual kinetic picture combined with feature-scale electrostatic analysis to understand the alternation of ion-driven etching and passivation recovery between on/off segments and local electric field shaping and modulation of ion trajectories within the trench. Moderate duty cycles (50%–75%) near 1 kHz achieved a balance between anisotropy and etch rate. These results demonstrate pulsed-bias modulation can be utilized to tune directionality and sidewall preservation in cryogenic SF 6 /O 2 etching, which are relevant to photonic, metrology, and quantum device fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Economic Coal Transition in South Asia

Many countries are considering accelerating their coal transition. A coal transition refers to an energy sector’s shift from a reliance on coal toward an energy mix largely based on cleaner fuels and renewable energy sources. Such a transition is not just related to greenhouse gas emissions, but also encompasses a range of benefits, recognizing that global energy costs and options are changing. Since 2015, proposed new coal power capacity has dropped by three-quarters globally, leaving only a few countries that develop coal-fired power plants at scale (Littlecott et al., 2021). Historic steps were taken at the United Nations Climate Change 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, as countries pledged to stop new coal builds, end international coal financing, phase down and phase out unabated coal use, and transition to clean energy. In South Asia, there have been several indicators suggesting that countries may be open to moving toward a coal transition. For example, the number of coal power plants under development across South Asia has decreased by 87% since 2015 (Littlecott et al., 2021). However, the challenges of assuring a just transition are substantial. Because coal plays a critical role in the energy and economic systems in South Asia, especially India, moving away from coal means realizing a broader country-wide economic and social transition. A comprehensive, integrated transition strategy for each state is thus needed urgently. This report briefly reviews the current trends and policies on coal in South Asian countries, develops a framework for a comprehensive economic coal transition, and assesses the opportunities and challenges of the transition in key countries. Several important findings emerge from the analysis. First, a coal transition can support overall economic growth and stability. Financial advantages to a well-planned coal transition include mitigating the risk of stranded assets and taking advantage of low-cost renewables. As a global coal transition proceeds, funds are being diverted from new unabated coal power plants, and utilization rates are declining. The likelihood that coal assets will become stranded is increasing, and the potential for future losses therefore increases as well. Second, coal imports in South Asia are rising. Of the coal consumed in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, 32% is imported; this number increases to 94% when excluding India (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021d). This illustrates a serious energy security risk. One example is the recent increase in coal prices in South Asia, to be discussed in Section 2.2.1. A diverse energy portfolio that incorporates local renewable energy can provide resilience in the face of changing commodity prices and availability. Third, the social benefits of a coal transition include positive health impacts and broader economic improvements in job creation, although assuring a just transition may be a challenge. Phasing out or phasing down coal can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions and therefore minimize associated premature mortality and improve life expectancy. Additional societal benefits of a coal transition include the high economy-wide potential for job creation, although it creates challenges in terms of reintegration and resettlement for coal miners and their communities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS1983

Requirements of constitutive models for two nickel-base superalloys

The constitutive behavior of two nickel-base superalloys, Rene '80 and Inconel 718, utilized in gas turbine blade and disk components, respectively, is presented. In turbine blade applications, the high homologous temperatures result in strain-rate effects dominating behavior. In turbine disks, the temperatures are cooler so that mean stress effects become important. The impact of these two variables on the overall crack initiation lifetime and analysis methodology is discussed.

Laflen, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Three-Dimensional, Transgenic Cell Models to Quantify Space Genotoxic Effects

The space environment contains radiation and chemical agents known to be mutagenic and carcinogenic to humans. Additionally, microgravity is a complicating factor that may modify or synergize induced genotoxic effects. Most in vitro models fail to use human cells (making risk extrapolation to humans more difficult), overlook the dynamic effect of tissue intercellular interactions on genotoxic damage, and lack the sensitivity required to measure low-dose effects. Currently a need exists for a model test system that simulates cellular interactions present in tissue, and can be used to quantify genotoxic damage induced by low levels of radiation and chemicals, and extrapolate assessed risk to humans. A state-of-the-art, three-dimensional, multicellular tissue equivalent cell culture model will be presented. It consists of mammalian cells genetically engineered to contain multiple copies of defined target genes for genotoxic assessment,. NASA-designed bioreactors were used to coculture mammalian cells into spheroids, The cells used were human mammary epithelial cells (H184135) and Stratagene's (Austin, Texas) Big Blue(TM) Rat 2 lambda fibroblasts. The fibroblasts were genetically engineered to contain -a high-density target gene for mutagenesis (60 copies of lacl/LacZ per cell). Tissue equivalent spheroids were routinely produced by inoculation of 2 to 7 X 10(exp 5) fibroblasts with Cytodex 3 beads (150 micrometers in diameter). at a 20:1 cell:bead ratio, into 50-ml HARV bioreactors (Synthecon, Inc.). Fibroblasts were cultured for 5 days, an equivalent number of epithelial cells added, and the fibroblast/epithelial cell coculture continued for 21 days. Three-dimensional spheroids with diameters ranging from 400 to 600 micrometers were obtained. Histological and immunohistochemical Characterization revealed i) both cell types present in the spheroids, with fibroblasts located primarily in the center, surrounded by epithelial cells; ii) synthesis of extracellular matrix; and iii,, mitotic cells located throughout the spheroids. Spheroidal integrity and cell viability were retained for the 30-day test period after removal of spheroids from the bioreactor. Potential utility of this three-dimensional, transgenic model for genotoxicity was initially assessed by exposure of spheroids to 0-2 Gy neon at dose rates of 0.3 to 1.5 Gy/min (National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Chiba, Japan). Quantification of mutation at the lacl gene revealed a linear dose response for mutation induction. Limited sequencing analysis of mutant clones revealed higher frequencies of deletions and multiple base sequence changes with increasing dose. These results suggest that our three-dimensional, transgenic model is applicable to a wide variety of studies involving the quantification, identification, and characterization of genotoxicity incurred in space and on Earth. This model uniquely allows investigation of the interaction of relevant factors, namely cell-to-cell interactions and the mechanistic interaction of microgravity with radiation insults and DNA repair. Using this three-dimensional model will allow us to obtain dual genotoxic information (i.e., mutation rate plus chromosome aberration data) from the same system so that one endpoint can be used to reference the other, thereby increasing the fidelity of the data set. Moreover, the tissue-equivalent nature of the three-dimensional model provides high confidence for relevance of risk assessment, i.e., the establishment of quality factors directly applicable to the microgravity environment.

Gonda, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Materials Compatibility and Thermal Stability Analysis of Common Hydrocarbon Fuels

A materials compatibility and thermal stability investigation was conducted using five common liquid hydrocarbon fuels and two structural materials. The tests were performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center Heated Tube Facility under environmental conditions similar to those encountered in regeneratively cooled rocket engines. Scanning-electron microscopic analysis in conjunction with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) was utilized to characterize the condition of the tube inner wall surface and any carbon deposition or corrosion that was formed during selected runs. Results show that the carbon deposition process in stainless steel tubes was relatively insensitive to fuel type or test condition. The deposition rates were comparable for all fuels and none of the stainless steel test pieces showed any signs of corrosion. For tests conducted with copper tubing, the sulfur content of the fuel had a significant impact on both the condition of the tube wall and carbon deposition rates. Carbon deposition rates for the lowest sulfur fuels (2 ppm) were slightly higher than those recorded in the stainless steel tubes with no corrosion observed on the inner wall surface. For slightly higher sulfur content (25 ppm) fuels, nodules that intruded into the flow area were observed to form on the inner wall surface. These nodules induced moderate tube pressure drop increases. The highest sulfur content fuels (400 ppm) produced extensive wall pitting and dendritic copper sulfide growth that was continuous along the entire tube wall surface. The result of this tube degradation was the inability to maintain flow rate due to rapidly increasing test section pressure drops. Accompanying this corrosion were carbon deposition rates an order of magnitude greater than those observed in comparable stainless steel tests. The results of this investigation indicate that trace impurities in fuels (i.e. sulfur) can significantly impact the carbon deposition process and produce unacceptable corrosion levels in copper based structural materials.

Meyer, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of Thermal Decomposition of TATB-Based Explosive for Safety Analysis

We investigate and model the cook-off behavior of LX-17 to understand the response of explosive systems in abnormal thermal environments. Decomposition has been explored via conventional ODTX (One-Dimensional Time-to-eXplosion), PODTX (ODTX with pressure-measurement), TGA (Thermo-Gravimetric Analysis), and DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry) experiments under isothermal and ramped temperature profiles. The data were used to fit reaction rate parameters for proposed schemes in an ALE3D computational model. This model includes chemical reactions, thermo- and hydro-dynamics, and material properties, including thermal expansion, compressibility, and strength. These parameterizations were carried out utilizing a Python evolutionary optimization method on LLNL’s high-performance computing clusters. Additional experiments are being developed to further characterize and monitor decomposition intermediates to improve the model. Once experimentally validated, this model will be scalable to several applications involving LX-17. Furthermore, the optimization methodology developed herein should be applicable to other high explosive materials.

Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices

Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.

Grant, Peter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data Analysis of Energy Code Compliance in Commercial Buildings

What percent of newly constructed commercial buildings comply with the energy code? How much energy and cost could be saved if the compliance increased? Which code requirements have both low compliance rates and high savings potential? These are the questions U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is trying to answer through its Commercial Energy Code Field Study. Previous commercial studies have been very limited and did not result in a widely accepted and tested methodology. DOE’s goal is to create a standardized methodology that can produce actionable results at a reasonable study cost, that can be used by state and local governments and utilities and provides valuable information to policy makers. The field study team implemented the pilot methodology, compiling a data set of 230 office and retail buildings in two climate zones. The approach is based on identifying lost savings on a total energy cost basis rather than simply counting the quantity of measures that do not meet code. This report is focused on the analysis of the collected data. The primary goal was to analyze the data collected during the field study and determine the actual energy cost impact of each measure in a non-compliance situation. The energy impact results allowed for ranking the measures to identify which have the highest potential for lost savings. These results combined with the time required to verify each measure will allow future compliance verification to focus on measures that had a large impact on energy use over the life of the building and those that have the greatest savings recovery potential per verification hour.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2006

System Would Detect Foreign-Object Damage in Turbofan Engine

A proposed data-fusion system, to be implemented mostly in software, would further process the digitized and preprocessed outputs of sensors in a turbofan engine to detect foreign-object damage (FOD) [more precisely, damage caused by impingement of such foreign objects as birds, pieces of ice, and runway debris]. The proposed system could help a flight crew to decide what, if any, response is necessary to complete a flight safely, and could aid mechanics in deciding what post-flight maintenance action might be needed. The sensory information to be utilized by the proposed system would consist of (1) the output of an accelerometer in an engine-vibration-monitoring subsystem and (2) features extracted from a gas path analysis. ["Gas path analysis" (GPA) is a term of art that denotes comprehensive analysis of engine performance derived from readings of fuel-flow meters, shaft-speed sensors, temperature sensors, and the like.] The acceleration signal would first be processed by a wavelet-transform-based algorithm, using a wavelet created for the specific purpose of finding abrupt FOD-induced changes in noisy accelerometer signals. Two additional features extracted would be the amplitude of vibration (determined via a single- frequency Fourier transform calculated at the rotational speed of the engine), and the rate of change in amplitude due to an FOD-induced rotor imbalance. This system would utilize two GPA features: the fan efficiency and the rate of change of fan efficiency with time. The selected GPA and vibrational features would be assessed by two fuzzy-logic inference engines, denoted the "Gas Path Expert" and the "Vibration Expert," respectively (see Figure 1). Each of these inference engines would generate a "possibility" distribution for occurrence of an FOD event: Each inference engine would assign, to its input information, degrees of membership, which would subsequently be transformed into basic probability assignments for the gas path and vibration components. The outputs of the inference engines would be fused by use of Dempster s combination algorithm (more precisely, an algorithm, based on the Dempster-Shafer-Yager theory of evidence, for fusing uncertain or imprecise information) to provide a reduced body of information to a human or computer decision maker. Figure 2 depicts some outputs generated in response to simulated accelerometer and GPA signals

Torso, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data Analysis of Energy Code Compliance in Commercial Buildings (Rev. 1)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Material Selection on the Remanufacturability of a Swashplate in an Axial Piston Pump

A swashplate is a critical component in an axial piston pump for motion transformation that undergoes cyclic loading. Traditionally, swashplates are not designed to have multiple lives of operation. According to industry experts, a remanufacturability analysis of swashplates suggests that the scrap rate is high. Among the primary reasons for this high scrap rate is insufficient material on the running surface, especially for subtractive recovery. Therefore, the selection of the proper material and its amount plays a significant role in the fatigue behavior, the remanufacturability of the swashplate, as well as its cost. Analyses addressing fatigue life, remanufacturability, and cost of the swashplate were carried out in this paper through a comparative study utilizing various materials. Recommendations on the material selection that balance the failure consequences, remanufacturability, and cost are provided to guide designers in making informed decisions for alternative design options.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of potential benefits of integrated-gasifier combined cycles for a utility system

Potential benefits of integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) units were evaluated for a reference utility system by comparing long range expansion plans using IGCC units and gas turbine peakers with a plan using only state of the art steam turbine units and gas turbine peakers. Also evaluated was the importance of the benefits of individual IGCC unit characteristics, particularly unit efficiency, unit equivalent forced outage rate, and unit size. A range of IGCC units was analyzed, including cases achievable with state of the art gas turbines and cases assuming advanced gas turbine technology. All utility system expansion plans that used IGCC units showed substantial savings compared with the base expansion plan using the steam turbine units.

Choo, Y. K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Rheo-electric Performance of Aqueous Suspensions of Oxidized Carbon Black

Here, the macroscopic properties of carbon black suspensions are primarily determined by the agglomerate microstructure built of primary aggregates. Conferring colloidal stability in aqueous carbon black suspensions should thus have a drastic impact on their viscosity and conductivity. Carbon black was treated with strong acids following a wet oxidation procedure. An analysis of the resulting particle surface chemistry and electrophoretic mobility was performed in evaluating colloidal stability. Changes in suspension microstructure due to oxidation were observed using small-angle X-ray scattering. Utilizing rheo-electric measurements, the evolution of the viscosity and conductivity of the carbon black suspensions as a function of shear rate and carbon content was thoroughly studied. The carboxyl groups installed on the carbon black surface through oxidation increased the surface charge density and enhanced repulsive interactions. Electrostatic stability inhibited the formation of the large-scale agglomerates in favor of the stable primary aggregates in suspension. While shear thinning, suspension conductivities were found to be weakly dependent on the shear intensity regardless of the carbon content. Most importantly, aqueous carbon black suspensions formulated from electrostatically repulsive primary aggregates displayed a smaller rise in conductivity with carbon content compared to those formulated from attractive agglomerates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with the FFTF LOFWOS Tests #10-12

The FFTF liquid sodium cooled test reactor was built to assist the development and testing of advanced fuels and material for fast reactors. The goals of the FFTF Passive Safety Testing program included confirming the safety margins of FFTF as a liquid metal reactor, providing data for computer code validation, and demonstrating the inherent and passive safety benefits of its specific design features. The program included thirteen unprotected loss of flow without scram tests. The results of modeling and simulation of LOFWOS Tests #10, #11, and #12 are presented in this report to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. These three tests did not use the primary loop pony motors and thus transitioned to natural circulation flow rates from varying initial power levels. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project (CRP) for benchmark analysis of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 model originally developed for the CRP has been extended to include LOFWOS Tests #10-12 and modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Predicted results from SAS4A/SASSYS-1 were compared to measured test data and differences were investigated. Overall, it was concluded that, for LOFWOS Tests #10-12, there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Automated multisensor registration - Requirements and techniques

The synergistic utilization of data from a suite of remote sensors requires multi-dimensional analysis of the data. Prior to this analysis, processing is required to correct for the systematic geometric distortions characteristic of each sensor, followed by a registration operation to remove any residual offsets. Furthermore, to handle a large volume of data and high data rates, the registration process must be fully automated. A conceptual approach is presented that integrates a variety of registration techniques and selects the candidate algorithm based on certain performance criteria. The performance requirements for an operational algorithm are formulated given the spatially, temporally, and spectrally varying factors that influence the image characteristics and the science requirements of various applications. Several computational techniques are tested and their performance evaluated using a multisensor test data set assembled from the Landsat TM, Seasat, SIR-B, TIMS, and SPOT sensors. The results are discussed and recommendations for future studies are given.

Rignot, Eric J. M.↗