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Swift has exceeded every pre-launch predicted advance in GRB science. It has discovered the farthest GRB ever seen and identified new GRBs at a rate of 100/year. It has also explored a brand new time interval in GRB light curves by revealing unpredicted phenomena of GRB flares and rapid x-ray afterglow declines. Swift has conducted 20,00o successful slews to sources and is predicted to stay in orbit until 2022.
The fundamental nature of processes that led to the emergence of life has been a subject of long-standing debate. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Jacques Monod in his book Chance or Necessity. In an alternative view, the origin of life is considered a deterministic event. Its details need not be deterministic in every respect, but the overall behavior is predictable. A corollary to the deterministic view is that the emergence of life must have been determined primarily by universal chemistry and biochemistry rather than by subtle details of environmental conditions. In my lecture I will explore two different paradigms for the emergence of life and discuss their implications for predictability and universality of life-forming processes. The dominant approach is that the origin of life was guided by information stored in nucleic acids (the RNA World hypothesis). In this view, selection of improved combinations of nucleic acids obtained through random mutations drove evolution of biological systems from their conception. An alternative hypothesis states that the formation of protocellular metabolism was driven by non-genomic processes. Even though these processes were highly stochastic the outcome was largely deterministic, strongly constrained by laws of chemistry. I will argue that self-replication of macromolecules was not required at the early stages of evolution; the reproduction of cellular functions alone was sufficient for self-maintenance of protocells. In fact, the precise transfer of information between successive generations of the earliest protocells was unnecessary and could have impeded the discovery of cellular metabolism. I will also show that such concepts as speciation and fitness to the environment, developed in the context of genomic evolution also hold in the absence of a genome.
Generating plans for execution imposes a different set of requirements on the planning process than those imposed by planning alone. In highly unpredictable execution environments, a fully-grounded plan may become inconsistent frequently when the world fails to behave as expected. Intelligent execution permits making decisions when the most up-to-date information is available, ensuring fewer failures. Planning should acknowledge the capabilities of the execution system, both to ensure robust execution in the face of uncertainty, which also relieves the planner of the burden of making premature commitments. We present Plan Identification Functions (PIFs), which formalize what it means for a plan to be executable, md are used in conjunction with a complete model of system behavior to halt the planning process when an executable plan is found. We describe the implementation of plan identification functions for a temporal, constraint-based planner. This particular implementation allows the description of many different plan identification functions. characteristics crf the ~xec~~tieonfvii r~nm-enft,h e best plan to hand to the execution system will contain more or less commitment and information.
Autonomous software, especially if it is based on model, can play an important role in future space applications. For example, it can help streamline ground operations, or, assist in autonomous rendezvous and docking operations, or even, help recover from problems (e.g., planners can be used to explore the space of recovery actions for a power subsystem and implement a solution without (or with minimal) human intervention). In general, the exploration capabilities of model-based systems give them great flexibility. Unfortunately, it also makes them unpredictable to our human eyes, both in terms of their execution and their verification. The traditional verification techniques are inadequate for these systems since they are mostly based on testing, which implies a very limited exploration of their behavioral space. In our work, we explore how advanced V&V techniques, such as static analysis, model checking, and compositional verification, can be used to gain trust in model-based systems. We also describe how synthesis can be used in the context of system reconfiguration and in the context of verification.
Program/project uncertainty can most simply be defined as the unpredictability of its outcome. As might be expected, the degree of uncertainty depends substantially on program/project type. For hi-tech programs/projects, uncertainty all too frequently translates into schedule slips, cost overruns and occasionally even to cancellations or failures - consummations root cause of such events is often attributed to inadequate definition of requirements. If such were indeed the root cause, then correcting the situation would simply be a matter of requiring better requirements definition, but since history seems frequently to repeat itself, this must not be the case - at least not in total. There are in fact many contributors to schedule slips, cost overruns, project cancellations and failures, among them lack of adequate requirements definition. The case can be made, however, that many of these contributors are related to the degree of uncertainty at the outset of the project. And further, that a dominant factor in the degree of uncertainty is the maturity of the technology required to bring the project to fruition. This presentation discusses the concept of relating degrees of uncertainty to Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) and their associated Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) levels. It also briefly describes a quantifiable process to establish the appropriate TRL for a given technology and quantifies through the AD2 what is required to move it from its current TRL to the desired TRL in order to reduce risk and maximize likelihood of successfully infusing the technology.
We describe and test the mathematical background for using checksum methods to validate results returned by a numerical subroutine operating in a fault- prone environment that causes unpredictable errors in data.
Ths paper proposes two solutions for the control of telerobots, in which master and slave are connected through a communication system that introduces a variable delay. This is the typical case of packet-switched networks (e.g. Internet), in which the delay varies in an unpredictible way.
A concurrent partitioner for partitioning unstructured finite element meshes on distributed memory architectures is developed. The partitioner uses an element-based partitioning strategy. Its main advantage over the more conventional node-based partitioning strategy is its modular programming approach to the development of parallel applications. The partitioner first partitions element centroids using a recursive inertial bisection algorithm. Elements and nodes then migrate according to the partitioned centroids, using a data request communication template for unpredictable incoming messages. Our scalable implementation is contrasted to a non-scalable implementation which is a straightforward parallelization of a sequential partitioner.
A parallel partitioner for partitioning unstructured finite element meshes on distributed memory architectures is developed. The element based partitioner can handle mixtures of different element types. All algorithms adopted in the partitioner are scalable, including a communication template for unpredictable incoming messages, as shown in actual timing measurements.
While there are many potential risks in a Moon or Mars mission, one of the most important and unpredictable is that of crew radiation exposure. The two forms of radiation that impact a mission far from the protective environment of low-earth orbit, are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). The effects of GCR occur as a long-term cumulative dose that results increased longer-term medical risks such as malignancy and neurological degeneration. Unfortunately, relatively little has been published on the medical management of an acute SPE that could potentially endanger the mission and harm the crew. Reanalysis of the largest SPE in August 1972 revealed that the dose rate was significantly higher than previously stated in the literature. The peak dose rate was 9 cGy h(sup -1) which exceeds the low dose-rate criteria for 25 hrs (National Council on Radiation Protection) and 16 hrs (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation). The bone marrow dose accumulated was 0.8 Gy, which exceeded the 25 and 16 hour criteria and would pose a serious medical risk. Current spacesuits would not provide shielding from the damaging effects for an SPE as large as the 1972 event, as increased shielding from 1-5 grams per square centimeters would do little to shield the bone marrow from exposure. Medical management options for an acute radiation event are discussed based on recommendations from the Department of Homeland Security, Centers for Disease Control and evidence-based scientific literature. The discussion will also consider how to define acute exposure radiation safety limits with respect to exploration-class missions, and to determine the level of care necessary for a crew that may be exposed to an SPE similar to August 1972.
Integration of multi-sensory inputs to detect tilts relative to gravity is critical for sensorimotor control of upright orientation. Displaying body orientation using electrotactile feedback to the tongue has been developed by Bach-y-Rita and colleagues as a sensory aid to maintain upright stance with impaired vestibular feedback. MacDougall et al. (2006) recently demonstrated that unpredictably varying Galvanic vestibular stimulation (GVS) significantly increased anterior-posterior (AP) sway during rotational sway referencing with eyes closed. The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of electrotactile feedback on postural control performance with pseudorandom binaural bipolar GVS. Postural equilibrium was measured with a computerized hydraulic platform in 10 healthy adults (6M, 4F, 24-65 y). Tactile feedback (TF) of pitch and roll body orientation was derived from a two-axis linear accelerometer mounted on a torso belt and displayed on a 144-point electrotactile array held against the anterior dorsal tongue (BrainPort, Wicab, Inc., Middleton, WI). Subjects were trained to use TF by voluntarily swaying to draw figures on their tongue, both with and without GVS. Subjects were required to keep the intraoral display in their mouths on all trials, including those that did not provide TF. Subjects performed 24 randomized trials (20 s duration with eyes closed) including four support surface conditions (fixed, rotational sway-referenced, translating the support surface proportional to AP sway, and combined rotational-translational sway-referencing), each repeated twice with and without GVS, and with combined GVS and TF. Postural performance was assessed using deviations from upright (peak-to-peak and RMS sway) and convergence toward stability limits (time and distance to base of support boundaries). Postural stability was impaired with GVS in all platform conditions, with larger decrements in performance during trials with rotation sway-referencing. Electrotactile feedback improved performance with GVS toward non-GVS levels, again with the greatest improvement during trials with rotation sway-referencing. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of tongue electrotactile feedback in providing sensory substitution to maintain postural stability with distorted vestibular input.
This paper describes the gravity effect on heat transport characteristics in a minia6re loop heat pipe with multiple evaporators and multiple condensers. Tests were conducted in three different orientations: horizontal, 45deg tilt, and vertical. The gravity affected the loop's natural operating temperature, the maximum heat transport capability, and the thermal conductance. In the case that temperatures of compensation chambers were actively controlled, the required control heater power was also dependent on the test configuration. In the vertical configuration, the secondary wick was not able to pump the liquid from the CC to the evaporator against the gravity. Thus the loop could operate stably or display some peculiar behaviors depending on the initial liquid distribution between the evaporator and the CC. Because such an initial condition was not known prior to the test, the subsequent loop performance was unpredictable.
We describe the problem of regular small telemetry losses incurred during coherency mode transitions in Cassini's telecommunication. The project did not originally plan any corrective steps for avoiding these data losses, because of 1) the disparity between the small durations of the transitions (1-2 min) and large playback capability losses (15 min) needed for bracketing the transition time spans and 2) the unpredictable content of data downlinking during the transitions. However, as the intense science data return from the tour began, it became apparent that the impact of these small losses can sometimes be significant. We provide two examples of the impact on Radar-dedicated Titan flybys.
Spaceflight mechanisms have a reputation for being difficult to develop and operate successfully. This reputation is well earned. Many circumstances conspire to make this so: the environments in which the mechanisms are used are extremely severe, there is usually limited or no maintenance opportunity available during operation due to this environment, the environments are difficult to replicate accurately on the ground, the expense of the mechanism development makes it impractical to build and test many units for long periods of time before use, mechanisms tend to be highly specialized and not prone to interchangeability or off-the-shelf use, they can generate and store a lot of energy, and the nature of mechanisms themselves, as a combination of structures, electronics, etc. designed to accomplish specific dynamic performance, makes them very complex and subject to many unpredictable interactions of many types. In addition to their complexities, mechanism are often counted upon to provide critical vehicle functions that can result in catastrophic events should the functions not be performed. It is for this reason that mechanisms are frequently subjected to special scrutiny in safety processes. However, a failure tolerant approach, along with good design and development practices and detailed design reviews, can be developed to allow such notoriously troublesome mechanisms to be utilized confidently in safety-critical applications.
A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.
This paper describes the operations to control the Moon impact of the 3-axis stabilized spacecraft SMART-1 in September 2006. SMART-1 was launched on 27/09/2003. It was the first ESA mission to use an Electric Propulsion (EP) engine as the main motor to spiral out of the Earth gravity field and reach a scientific moon orbit [1]. During September 2005 the last EP maneuvers were performed using the remaining Xenon, in order to compensate for the 3rd body perturbations of the Sun and Earth. These operations extended the mission for an additional year. Afterwards the EP performance became unpredictable and low, so that no meaningful operation for the moon impact could be done. To move the predicted impact point on the 16/8/2006 into visibility from Earth an alternative Delta-V strategy was designed. Due to their alignment, the attitude thrusters could not be used directly to generate the Delta-V, so this strategy was based on controlled angular momentum biasing. Firing along the velocity vector around apolune, the remaining Hydrazine left from the attitude control budget was used, to shift the impact to the required coordinates.
There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5. Diurnal cycles are explicitly resolved by merging geostationary satellite observations with CERES and MODIS. Atmospheric state data are provided from a frozen version of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office- Data Assimilation System at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to improving the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, CERES also produces radiative fluxes at the surface and at several levels in the atmosphere using radiative transfer modeling, constrained at the TOA by CERES (ERBE was limited to the TOA). In all, CERES uses 11 instruments on 7 spacecraft all integrated to obtain climate accuracy in TOA to surface fluxes. This presentation will provide an overview of several new CERES datasets of interest to the climate community (including a new adjusted TOA flux dataset constrained by estimates of heat storage in the Earth system), show direct comparisons between CERES ad ERBE, and provide a detailed error analysis of CERES fluxes at various time and space scales. We discuss how observations can be used to reduce uncertainties in cloud feedback and climate sensitivity and strongly argue why we should NOT "call off the quest".
The Dynamic Multi-track Airways (DMA) Concept for Air Traffic Management (ATM) proposes a network of high-altitude airways constructed of multiple, closely spaced, parallel tracks designed to increase en-route capacity in high-demand airspace corridors. Segregated from non-airway operations, these multi-track airways establish high-priority traffic flow corridors along optimal routes between major terminal areas throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Air traffic controllers transition aircraft equipped for DMA operations to DMA entry points, the aircraft use autonomous control of airspeed to fly the continuous-airspace airway and achieve an economic benefit, and controllers then transition the aircraft from the DMA exit to the terminal area. Aircraft authority within the DMA includes responsibility for spacing and/or separation from other DMA aircraft. The DMA controller is responsible for coordinating the entry and exit of traffic to and from the DMA and for traffic flow management (TFM), including adjusting DMA routing on a daily basis to account for predicted weather and wind patterns and re-routing DMAs in real time to accommodate unpredicted weather changes. However, the DMA controller is not responsible for monitoring the DMA for traffic separation. This report defines the mature state concept, explores its feasibility and performance, and identifies potential benefits. The report also discusses (a) an analysis of a single DMA, which was modeled within the NAS to assess capacity and determine the impact of a single DMA on regional sector loads and conflict potential; (b) a demand analysis, which was conducted to determine likely city-pair candidates for a nationwide DMA network and to determine the expected demand fraction; (c) two track configurations, which were modeled and analyzed for their operational characteristic; (d) software-prototype airborne capabilities developed for DMA operations research; (e) a feasibility analysis of key attributes in the concept design; (f) a near-term, transitional application of the DMA concept as a proving ground for new airborne technologies; and (g) conclusions. The analysis indicates that the operational feasibility of a national DMA network faces significant challenges, especially for interactions between DMAs and between DMA and non-DMA traffic. Provided these issues are resolved, sectors near DMAs could experience significant local capacity benefits.