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NASA NTRS2016

Microgravity-Induced Physiological Fluid Redistribution: Computational Analysis to Assess Influence of Physiological Parameters

Space flight impacts human physiology in many ways, the most immediate being the marked cephalad (headward) shift of fluid upon introduction into the microgravity environment. This physiological response to microgravity points to the redistribution of blood and interstitial fluid as a major factor in the loss of venous tone and reduction in heart muscle efficiency which impact astronaut performance. In addition, researchers have hypothesized that a reduction in astronaut visual acuity, part of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome, is associated with this redistribution of fluid. VIIP arises within several months of beginning space flight and includes a variety of ophthalmic changes including posterior globe flattening, distension of the optic nerve sheath, and kinking of the optic nerve. We utilize a suite of lumped parameter models to simulate microgravity-induced fluid redistribution in the cardiovascular, central nervous and ocular systems to provide initial and boundary data to a 3D finite element simulation of ocular biomechanics in VIIP. Specifically, the lumped parameter cardiovascular model acts as the primary means of establishing how microgravity, and the associated lack of hydrostatic gradient, impacts fluid redistribution. The cardiovascular model consists of 16 compartments, including three cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compartments, three cranial blood compartments, and 10 thoracic and lower limb blood compartments. To assess the models capability to address variations in physiological parameters, we completed a formal uncertainty and sensitivity analysis that evaluated the relative importance of 42 input parameters required in the model on relative compartment flows and compartment pressures. Utilizing the model in a pulsatile flow configuration, the sensitivity analysis identified the ten parameters that most influenced each compartment pressure. Generally, each compartment responded appropriately to parameter variations associated with itself and adjacent compartments. However, several unexpected interactions between components, such as between the choroid plexus and the lower capillaries, were found, and are due to simplifications in the formulation of the model. The analysis illustrates that highly influential parameters and those that have unique influences within the model formulation must be tightly controlled for successful model application.

gravitational physiology↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Clear Sky Identification in the Study of Cloud Radiative Effects: Combine Analysis from ISCCP and the Scanner of Radiation Budget (ScaRaB)

Since the effect of clouds on the earth's radiation balance is often estimated as the difference of net radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere between all situations and monthly averaged clear sky situations of the same regions, a reliable identification of clear sky is important for the study of cloud radiative effects. The Scanner for Radiation Balance (ScaRaB) radiometer on board the Russian Meteor-3/7 satellite provided earth radiation budget observations from March 1994 to February 1995 with two ERBE-Re broad-band longwave and shortwave channels. Two narrow-band channels, in the infrared atmospheric window and in the visible band, have been added to the ScaRaB instrument to improve the cloud scene identification. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) method for cloud detection and determination of cloud and surface properties uses the same narrow-band channels as ScaRaB, but is employed to a collection of measurements at a better spatial resolution of about 5 km. By applying the original ISCCP algorithms to the ScaRaB data, the clear sky frequency is about 5% lower than the one over quasi-simultaneous original ISCCP data, an indication that the ISCCP cloud detection is quite stable. However, one would expect an about 10 to 20% smaller clear sky occurrence over the larger ScaRaB pixels. Adapting the ISCCP algorithms to the reduced spatial resolution of 60 km and to the different time sampling of the ScaRaB data leads therefore to a reduction of a residual cloud contamination. A sensitivity study with time-space collocated ScaRaB and original ISCCP data at a spatial resolution of 1deg longitude x 1deg latitude shows that the effect of clear sky identification method plays a higher role on the clear sky frequency and therefore on the statistics than on the zonal mean values of the clear sky fluxes. Nevertheless, the zonal outgoing longwave fluxes corresponding to ERBE clear sky are in general about 2 to 10 W/sq m higher than those obtained from the ScaRaB adapted ISCCP clear sky identifications. The latter are close to (about 1 W/sq m higher) fluxes corresponding to clear sky regions from original ISCCP data, whereas ScaRaB clear sky LW fluxes obtained with the original ISCCP identification lie about 1 to 2 W/sq m below. Especially in the tropics where water vapor abundance is high, the ERBE clear sky LW fluxes seem to be systematically overestimated by about 4 W/sq m, and SW fluxes are lower by about 5 to 10 W/sq m. However, the uncertainty in the analysis of monthly mean zonal cloud radiative effects is also produced by the low frequency of clear sky occurrence, illustrated when averaging over pixels or even over regions of 4deg longitude x 5deg latitude, corresponding to the spatial resolution of General Circulation Models. The systematic bias in the clear sky fluxes is not reflected in the zonal cloud radiative effects, because the clear sky regions selected by the different algorithms can occur in different geographic regions with different cloud properties.

Rossow, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The energy balance of the nighttime thermosphere

Energy balance considerations for the thermosphere are affected by the uncertainty of the solar EUV flux. The problem is simplified by investigating only the nighttime thermosphere. Vapor trail measurements provide wind data at the sunset and sunrise terminators and near the polar cap boundary. Temperature and density profiles were obtained from incoherent scatter and Ogo 6 measurements. Based on the available data the energy losses are estimated to be 8 times 10 to the 10th W due to downward conduction at 120 km and 3 times 10 to the 10th W due to infrared radiation. The energy carried by the measured winds from the polar cap is found to be 4.6 times 10 to the 10th W and that transported across the mid- and low-latitude terminators, 7.6 to 11 times 10 to the 10th W. The greatest uncertainty in this analysis was in the estimates of the differences in the densities and temperatures in the lower thermosphere at the dawn and dusk terminators. Because of the large rotational velocity of the earth, small differences in these parameters correspond to large amounts of energy transported to the night hemisphere.

Glenar, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Statistical summaries of fatigue data for design purposes

Two methods are discussed for constructing a design curve on the safe side of fatigue data. Both the tolerance interval and equivalent prediction interval (EPI) concepts provide such a curve while accounting for both the distribution of the estimators in small samples and the data scatter. The EPI is also useful as a mechanism for providing necessary statistics on S-N data for a full reliability analysis which includes uncertainty in all fatigue design factors. Examples of statistical analyses of the general strain life relationship are presented. The tolerance limit and EPI techniques for defining a design curve are demonstrated. Examples usng WASPALOY B and RQC-100 data demonstrate that a reliability model could be constructed by considering the fatigue strength and fatigue ductility coefficients as two independent random variables. A technique given for establishing the fatigue strength for high cycle lives relies on an extrapolation technique and also accounts for "runners." A reliability model or design value can be specified.

Wirsching, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Color photometry of surface features on Ganymede and Callisto

Voyager imaging data demonstrate that the scattering properties ('phase curves') of all major terrain types on Ganymede and Callisto are not significantly wavelength dependent between 0.4 and 0.6 micron. The data suggest that the phase curves may be slightly steeper at the shorter wavelengths, consistent with the trend of telescopic observations near opposition. However, the differences are small and entirely within the uncertainties of the analysis. The result indicates that the phase integrals (0.8 for Ganymede and 0.6 for Callisto) derived by S. W. Squyres and J. Veverka (1981) from the abundant Voyager clear filter observations are reliable measures of the radiometric phase integrals. The corresponding values of the Bond albedo turn out to be 0.35 for Ganymede and 0.11 for Callisto.

Squyres, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ionized magnesium in the planetary nebula NGC 7027

Observations of NGC 7027 are presented for six ionic lines: Mg(+3) (4.48 microns), Mg(+4) (5.61 microns), H(0) (4.05 and 7.46 microns), Ne(+5) (7.64 microns), and Ar(+5) (4.53 microns). The magnesium lines are consistent with the measurements of Russell, Soifer, and Willner (1977), and the hydrogen lines are consistent with the line strengths predicted from the radio flux. Upper limits were obtained for the neon and argon lines. The abundance of magnesium in the central part of the nebula is highly uncertain because the fine-structure collision strengths are poorly known. The strong gradient of magnesium abundance from the inner to the outer portions of the nebula derived by Pequignot and Stasinska (1980) could be an artifact of this uncertainty. A brief analysis of the effective stellar temperature derived from the magnesium line ratios is given.

Evans, N. J., II↗
NASA NTRS1983

The cosmic ray source composition

The cosmic ray source composition is shown to be related to the observed cosmic ray abundances by a set of linear equations which are valid for either ad hoc pathlength distributions or quantitative solutions to Galactic propagation models. These relations can be used to propagate abundances from the source or to the source, and the method described here allows a simple propagation of abundance uncertainties. A simultaneous analysis of B/C and (21-25)Fe indicates a need for truncation of the pathlength distribution.

Margolis, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A methodology for formulating a minimal uncertainty model for robust control system design and analysis

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, the technique of formulating what is termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents the transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal system, and delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unstructured uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, and for real parameter variations the diagonal elements are real. As stated in the literature, this structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the literature addresses methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty. Since have a delta matrix of minimum order would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta model would be useful. A generalized method of obtaining a minimal M-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is given.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Accuracy of vertical air motions from nadir-viewing Doppler airborne radars

This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainties expected in vertical velocities using a vertically pointing airborne Doppler radar which has a nadir or zenith-pointing beam. To examine the expected uncertainty, the Doppler velocity equation for a moving platform is derived and it is applied to cases of nadir-fixed and stabilized beams. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect of platform stability on the deduced vertical air motions and it is shown that the antenna must be stabilized to obtain desired accuracy in the vertical velocity measurements.

Heymsfield, Gerald M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Scaling of impact damage in fiber composites

Impact damage in fiber composite structures remains of much concern, and is often the limiting factor in establishing allowable strain levels. The complexity of impact damage formation usually dictates that experiments are required, but scaling of results from small laboratory scale specimens to large structures introduces additional uncertainty into the analysis. This presentation gives the results of an analytical and experimental investigation intended to develop procedures for prediction of damage formation and subsequent strength loss, with particular emphasis on scaling of results with respect to structure size. The experimental investigation involved both drop-weight and airgun impact on carbon/epoxy plates and cylinders. Five sizes of plates ranging from 50 by 50 by 1.072 mm to 250 by 250 by 5.36 mm, and two sizes of cylinders with diameters of 96.5 and 319 mm, were employed in the experimental program. Impact tests were carried out over a range of impact conditions, and specimens were inspected for damage by C-scan and deplying. Analysis procedures were developed for both quasistatic and dynamic impacts for both the plates and cylinders. As has been reported previously, comparison of predicted structural response and measured surface strains was quite good over the entire range of sizes employed in the program. The damage formation and strength loss after impact showed a number of interesting features that are significant with respect to scaling of size. The extent of delamination was observed to increase with specimen size more than would be expected if stresses controlled the delamination extent. This was explained on the basis that delamination is controlled by energy release rates, and thus incorporates the usual dependence on the absolute size characteristic of fracture mechanics. Additionally, the experiments indicated that delamination initiated at matrix cracks and is dependent on the absolute size of the ply group thicknesses. Both the initiation and propagation of delamination are seen to be controlled by fracture mechanics parameters, and thus show specific dependence on size that must be accounted for in extrapolating results from laboratory scale tests to full size structures.

Swanson, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An examination of the total hydrogen budget of the lower stratosphere

We analyze the hydrogen budget of the lower stratosphere using simultaneous in situ measurements of northern hemispheric water vapor (H2O) and methane (CH4) obtained during the spring Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols, and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE), as well as previously published in situ H2 data. Based on this data, we conclude that approximately two H2O molecules are produced for each CH4 molecule destroyed. This implies that H2 production from CH4 oxidation is balanced by H2 oxidation. The uncertainty in this analysis is greatly reduced by the use of multiple data sets. Additionally, we infer that, on an annual and global average, H2O enters the stratosphere with a mixing ratio of 4.2 +/- 0.5 ppmv, and that the quasi-conserved quantity 2 x CH4 + H2O has a value of 7.6 +/- 0.6 ppmv in these northern hemishere air parcels (where xi denotes the mixing ratio of the constituent xi).

Dessler, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The isostatic state of Mead crater

We have analyzed high-resolution Magellan Doppler tracking data over Mead crater, using both line-of-sight and spherical harmonic methods, and have found a negative gravity anomaly of about 4-5 mgal (at spacecraft altitude, 182 km). This is consistent with no isostatic compensation of the present topography; the uncertainty in the analysis allows perhaps as much as 30% compensation at shallow dpeths (approximately 25 km). This is similar to observations of large craters on Earth, which are not generally compensated, but contrasts with at least some lunar basins which are inferred to have large Moho uplifts and corresponding positive Bouguer anomalies. An uncompensated load of this size requires a lithosphere with an effective elastic lithosphere thickness greater than 30 km. In order for the crust-mantle boundary not to have participated in the deformation associated with the collapse of the transient cavity during the creation of the crater, the yield strength near the top of the mantle must have been significantly higher on Earth and Venus than on the Moon at the time of basin formation. This might be due to increased strength against frictional sliding at the higher confining pressures within the larger planets. Alternatively, the thinner crusts of Earth and Venus compared to that of the Moon may result in higher creep strength of the upper mantle at shallower depths.

Banerdt, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Straw man trade between multi-junction, gallium arsenide, and silicon solar cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A straw man trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A straw man trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552 thousand dollars per kilogram to launch and service science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. If the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $58 thousand per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction arrays are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $182 thousand per kilogram. This is still much less than original $552 thousand per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Space Shuttle Main Engine Quantitative Risk Assessment: Illustrating Modeling of a Complex System with a New QRA Software Package

During 1997, a team from Hernandez Engineering, MSFC, Rocketdyne, Thiokol, Pratt & Whitney, and USBI completed the first phase of a two year Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of the Space Shuttle. The models for the Shuttle systems were entered and analyzed by a new QRA software package. This system, termed the Quantitative Risk Assessment System(QRAS), was designed by NASA and programmed by the University of Maryland. The software is a groundbreaking PC-based risk assessment package that allows the user to model complex systems in a hierarchical fashion. Features of the software include the ability to easily select quantifications of failure modes, draw Event Sequence Diagrams(ESDs) interactively, perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and document the modeling. This paper illustrates both the approach used in modeling and the particular features of the software package. The software is general and can be used in a QRA of any complex engineered system. The author is the project lead for the modeling of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSMEs), and this paper focuses on the modeling completed for the SSMEs during 1997. In particular, the groundrules for the study, the databases used, the way in which ESDs were used to model catastrophic failure of the SSMES, the methods used to quantify the failure rates, and how QRAS was used in the modeling effort are discussed. Groundrules were necessary to limit the scope of such a complex study, especially with regard to a liquid rocket engine such as the SSME, which can be shut down after ignition either on the pad or in flight. The SSME was divided into its constituent components and subsystems. These were ranked on the basis of the possibility of being upgraded and risk of catastrophic failure. Once this was done the Shuttle program Hazard Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) were used to create a list of potential failure modes to be modeled. The groundrules and other criteria were used to screen out the many failure modes that did not contribute significantly to the catastrophic risk. The Hazard Analysis and FMEA for the SSME were also used to build ESDs that show the chain of events leading from the failure mode occurence to one of the following end states: catastrophic failure, engine shutdown, or siccessful operation( successful with respect to the failure mode under consideration).

Smart, Christian↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cost Trade Between Multi-Junction, Gallium Arsenide, and Silicon Solar Cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar 2 cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552,000 dollars per kilogram to launch and suppon3science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. ff the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and supported at a price of approximately $58,000 per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction cells are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $180,000 per kilogram. This is still much less than the original $552,000 per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2002

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Synergic use of TOMS and Aeronet Observations for Characterization of Aerosol Absorption

The role of aerosol absorption on the radiative transfer balance of the earth-atmosphere system is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the analysis of global climate change. Global measurements of aerosol single scattering albedo are, therefore, necessary to properly assess the radiative forcing effect of aerosols. Remote sensing of aerosol absorption is currently carried out using both ground (Aerosol Robotic Network) and space (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) based observations. The satellite technique uses measurements of backscattered near ultraviolet radiation. Carbonaceous aerosols, resulting from the combustion of biomass, are one of the most predominant absorbing aerosol types in the atmosphere. In this presentation, TOMS and AERONET retrievals of single scattering albedo of carbonaceous aerosols, are compared for different environmental conditions: agriculture related biomass burning in South America and Africa and peat fires in Eastern Europe. The AERONET and TOMS derived aerosol absorption information are in good quantitative agreement. The most absorbing smoke is detected over the African Savanna. Aerosol absorption over the Brazilian rain forest is less absorbing. Absorption by aerosol particles resulting from peat fires in Eastern Europe is weaker than the absorption measured in Africa and South America. This analysis shows that the near UV satellite method of aerosol absorption characterization has the sensitivity to distinguish different levels of aerosol absorption. The analysis of the combined AERONET-TOMS observations shows a high degree of synergy between satellite and ground based observations.

Torres, O.↗