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NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were sigmficantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-china peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and gradient, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation apd associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

NASA NTRS2004

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Analysis of the Dragonfly Titan Entry

The Dragonfly mission will send a rotorcraft lander to the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan as part of the New-Frontiers program. This will be the first spacecraft to land on Titan since the Huygens probe’s descent in January of 2005 and only the second spacecraft to enter Titan’s atmosphere. The Dragonfly entry capsule is significantly larger than the Huygens probe and will experience higher aerothermal environments. This poster will provide an overview of the aerothermodynamic models used in the Dragonfly aeroshell design process. Titan provides a unique entry environment that has several fundamental differences from the environments at the more common entry destinations of Earth and Mars. The lack of atmospheric oxygen significantly reduces heatshield recession (expected to be negligible), which simplifies material response analysis but also reduces the efficiency of the thermal protection system. The atmos-phere is composed of mostly nitrogen and trace amounts of methane. During hypersonic entry this methane dissociates and leads to the formation of the molecule CN, which is known to radiate strongly in the shock layer. Current Dragonfly heating predictions estimate that radiation contributes about 50% of the total heat flux along the forebody and up to 90% on the aftbody, making radiation a key element of aerothermal analysis. To properly address the importance of radiation, a unique radiative-heating correlation was developed that incorporates normal-shock equilibrium chemistry predictions based on work from the Mars 2020 program. These new heating correlations agree well with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) predictions and enable large-scale trajectory analyses by providing rapid heating predictions along candidate trajectories. Dragonfly aerothermal environments are generated with the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) finite-volume Navier-Stokes solver alongside the Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra (NEQAIR) radiation transport code. DPLR produces shock-aligned flowfields that incorporate the effects of both chemical and thermal nonequilibrium while NEQAIR solves the radiation transport equations along lines-of-sight through the flowfield solutions to predict the radiative heating on the aeroshell. Titan’s atmosphere produces complex thermal and chemical nonequilibria and so classical radiation approximations that extrapolate from a single line-of-sight, such as the Tangent-Slab method, were found to overpredict peak radiative heat fluxes by 10-20%. Therefore, all radiative heating is directly calculated using 3-D transport for both the forebody and aftbody to reduce unnecessary conservatism. A 21-species finite-rate chemistry model, including electrons and ionized species, is used in the CFD to ensure accurate vehicle heating predictions (the level of ionization is particularly for accurate radiative flux predictions). This poster will cover: 1) The models and assumptions used to simulate entry into Titan’s atmosphere, 2) Dragonfly aerothermal engineering correlations alongside statistical heating values, and 3) Driving aerothermal considerations for a Titan entry such as CN formation and radiation-flowfield coupling.

EDL↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Thermal and Kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich Effect in Galaxy Clusters and Filaments Using Multifrequency Temperature Maps of the Cosmic Microwave Background A399–A401 Cluster Pair Case Study

We present a multifrequency and multi-instrument methodology to study the physical properties of galaxy clusters and cosmic filaments using cosmic microwave background observations. Our approach enables simultaneous measurement of both the thermal (tSZ) and kinematic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (kSZ) effects, incorporates relativistic corrections, and models astrophysical foregrounds such as thermal dust emission. We do this by jointly fitting a single physical model across multiple maps from multiple instruments at different frequencies, rather than fitting a model to a single Compton-y map. We demonstrate the success of this method by fitting the A399–A401 galaxy cluster pair and filament system using archival data from the Planck satellite and new, targeted deep data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, covering 11 different frequencies over 14 maps from 30 GHz to 545 GHz. Our tSZ results are consistent with previous work using Compton-y maps. We measure the line-of-sight peculiar velocities of the cluster–filament system using the kSZ effect and find statistical uncertainties on individual cluster peculiar velocities of ≲600 km s −1 , which are competitive with current state-of-the-art measurements. Additionally, we measure the optical depth of the filament component with a signal-to-noise of 8.5σ and reveal hints of its morphology. This modular approach is well-suited for application to future instruments across a wide range of millimeter and submillimeter wavebands.

Ajay S Gill↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wave function methods for canonical ensemble thermal averages in correlated many-fermion systems

We present a wave function representation for the canonical ensemble thermal density matrix by projecting the thermofield double state against the desired number of particles. Furthermore, the resulting canonical thermal state obeys an imaginary-time evolution equation. Starting with the mean-field approximation, where the canonical thermal state becomes an antisymmetrized geminal power (AGP) wave function, we explore two different schemes to add correlation: by number-projecting a correlated grand-canonical thermal state and by adding correlation to the number-projected mean-field state. As benchmark examples, we use number-projected configuration interaction and an AGP-based perturbation theory to study the hydrogen molecule in a minimal basis and the six-site Hubbard model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

ForSE: A GAN-based Algorithm for Extending CMB Foreground Models to Subdegree Angular Scales

We present ForSE (Foreground Scale Extender), a novel Python package that aims to overcome the current limitations in the simulation of diffuse Galactic radiation, in the context of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. ForSE exploits the ability of generative adversarial neural networks (GANs) to learn and reproduce complex features present in a set of images, with the goal of simulating realistic and non-Gaussian foreground radiation at subdegree angular scales. This is of great importance in order to estimate the foreground contamination to lensing reconstruction, delensing, and primordial B-modes for future CMB experiments. We applied this algorithm to Galactic thermal dust emission in both total intensity and polarization. Our results show how ForSE is able to generate small-scale features (at 12') having as input the large-scale ones (80'). The injected structures have statistical properties, evaluated by means of the Minkowski functionals, in good agreement with those of the real sky and which show the correct amplitude scaling as a function of the angular dimension. Furthermore, the obtained thermal dust Stokes Q and U full-sky maps as well as the ForSE package are publicly available for download.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of Slug Calorimeters in the HyMETS Arc-Jet Facility

The objective of this work is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the deduced stagnation heat flux environment on a slug calorimeter for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System arc-jet facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. Analytical solutions are developed for boundary-value problems on the slug element accounting for non-ideal effects, including spatial variation in the slug heat flux, multi-dimensional thermal conduction, and back-face losses, which departs from the state-of-the-art method derived from the American Society of Testing and Materials. Boundary-value problem definitions are informed by preliminary finite element thermal analysis of the slug calorimeter assembly (including both slug and housing) and just the slug element. The analytical solutions are presented in a general sense and in a truncated form from error analysis. Results are shown in optimizing and validating the analytical models against available slug back-face thermal data. The optimization results indicate that the appropriate epistemic uncertainty of the deduced stagnation heat flux on the slug calorimeter is at most±2.5% for both a high-and low-enthalpy test condition. In addition, a numerical approach is used to determine the aleatory (probabilistic) uncertainty component in the slug stagnation heat flux by applying a marching least-squares slope routine through the steady-state portion of the slug back-face thermal response. Results indicate a compromise between the number of samples and the filter frequency of slug back-face thermal data points when evaluating the standard deviation of the deduced stagnation heat flux statistics. When combining the mixed uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, the interval of uncertainty in the deduced stagnation heat flux is determined to be up to ±4%, which is at least a 60% reduction from the standard uncertainty used in the state-of-the-art method.

uncertainty↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-fidelity Experiments of Turbulent Buoyant Jets from Simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence

Accurate models of turbulent buoyant flows are essential for the design of nuclear reactors thermal hydraulics and passive safety systems. However, available models fail to fully capture the physics of turbulent mixing when buoyancy becomes predominant with respect to momentum. Therefore, high-fidelity experiments of well-controlled fundamental flows are needed to develop and validate more accurate models. We performed experiments of positive and negative turbulent buoyant jets, both in uniform and stratified environments, with the aim of understanding the thermal hydraulics of turbulent mixing with variable density and providing high-fidelity data for the development and validation of turbulence models. Non-intrusive, simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence measurements were carried out to acquire instantaneous velocity and concentration fields on a vertical section parallel to the axis of a jet in the self-similar region. The Refractive Index Matching method was applied to measure high-resolution buoyant jets with up to 8.6% density difference. These data are free of the typical errors that characterize optical measurements of buoyancy driven flows (e.g., natural and mixed convection) where the refractive index of the fluid is inhomogeneous throughout the measurement domain. Turbulent statistics and entrainment of buoyant jets in uniform and stratified environments are presented. These data are compared with non-buoyant jets in uniform environment, as a reference to investigate the effects of buoyancy and stratification on turbulent mixing. The results will be used for the assessment of current turbulence models and as basis for the development of a new one that captures turbulent mixing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-dependent THMC properties and microstructural evolution of damaged rocks in excavation damage zone

Modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in host rocks near high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories at various time scales is an extremely challenging task. The current study integrates experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods in assessing the evolution of excavation damage zone (EDZ) over time and its implication on the long-term migration of hazardous species. Argillite and rock salt and are the focus of this study. The first part of the report presents a novel time-dependent directional microcrack damage theory for generic brittle rocks. It features detailed statistical description of the microcracks within a damaged solid, permitting a direct upscaling of microscale processes such as crack growth kinetics, crack closure/opening, sliding friction to explain the macroscopic creep, nonlinear elasticity, shear dilation, and loading-unloading hysteresis. This provides a basic platform for describing the anisotropic mechanical and transport properties of damaged rocks during excavation and subsequent THMC loadings. The model is validated and numerically implemented to Finite Element (FE) package ABAQUS through the user-defined material (UMAT) interface and have demonstrated great potential in resolving the time-dependent and anisotropic evolution of damage in the EDZ. The second part of the report presents a multi-scale experimental effort in characterizing the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical properties of Mancos shale and Avery Island salt. For the Mancos shale, triaxial compression tests are performed at different confining pressures and temperatures to probe its thermomechanical properties relevant to HLW repositories. The obtained stress-strain data are interpreted using the proposed directional damage theory. Post-test specimens are subjected to gas permeability tests to reveal the correlation between permeability and the degree of microcracking. At microscale, temperature-controlled nanoindentation tests are performed and found a linear correlation between fracture toughness and elastic modulus from 25°C to 300°C. For Avery Island salt, we have designed and manufactured a novel relative-humidity controlled uniaxial creep device. Long-term creep tests at low stresses (< 5 MPa) are performed at different levels of relative humidity (RH). Besides confirming the much higher creep rates as one would expect through extrapolating the high-stress creep data, the results reveal that the steady-state creep rate of rock salt is strongly dependent on the ambient RH, an aspect that is often neglected in the literature. Both behaviors can be attributed to the pressure-solution creep mechanism which dominates at low stress and high RH levels. The third part of the report explores a set of numerical strategies in modeling the THMC behavior of porous geomaterials. A fully implicit, monolithic FE solution that can flexibly interface with different material models and coupling mechanisms for THMC problems is developed and verified through the ABAQUS user-defined element (UEL) interface. The scheme is used to study the THM response of a hypothetical HLW storage site with reference to an existing in-situ heater test. Strategies for integrating the UEL and the microcrack UMAT are suggested. Another numerical endeavor of this study is to implement a higher-order asymptotic homogenization method to account for the heterogeneous porous structures. The same method is then extended to perform microstructure-informed thermo-mechanical modeling of generalized continua. The above outcomes of this project provide a strong thrust towards enhancing the fundamental understanding and modeling capability of the long-term evolution of host rocks in EDZ, thus helping achieve the design goal of 1-million-year isolation of high-level nuclear wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Upsampling Monte Carlo Reactor Simulation Tallies in Depleted Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Assemblies Using a Convolutional Neural Network

The computational demand of neutron Monte Carlo transport simulations can increase rapidly with the spatial and energy resolution of tallied physical quantities. Convolutional neural networks have been used to increase the resolution of Monte Carlo simulations of light water reactor assemblies while preserving accuracy with negligible additional computational cost. Here, we show that a convolutional neural network can also be used to upsample tally results from Monte Carlo simulations of sodium-cooled fast reactor assemblies, thereby extending the applicability beyond thermal systems. The convolutional neural network model is trained using neutron flux tallies from 300 procedurally generated nuclear reactor assemblies simulated using OpenMC. Validation and test datasets included 16 simulations of procedurally generated assemblies, and a realistic simulation of a European sodium-cooled fast reactor assembly was included in the test dataset. We show the residuals between the high-resolution flux tallies predicted by the neural network and high-resolution Monte Carlo tallies on relative and absolute bases. The network can upsample tallies from simulations of fast reactor assemblies with diverse and heterogeneous materials and geometries by a factor of two in each spatial and energy dimension. The network’s predictions are within the statistical uncertainty of the Monte Carlo tallies in almost all cases. This includes test assemblies for which burnup values and geometric parameters were well outside the ranges of those in assemblies used to train the network.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Velocity and Concentration Measurements of Turbulent Buoyant Jets

Accurate models of turbulent buoyant flows are essential for the design of the cooling circuit of nuclear reactors and passive safety systems. However, available models fail to fully capture the physics of turbulent mixing when buoyancy becomes predominant with respect to momentum. Therefore, high-fidelity experiments of well-controlled fundamental flows are needed to develop and validate more accurate models. We analyze experiments of positive and negative turbulent buoyant jets, both in uniform and stratified environments, with the aim of understanding the thermal hydraulics of turbulent mixing with variable density and providing high-fidelity data for the development and validation of turbulence models. Non-intrusive, simultaneous particle image velocimetry and laser-induced fluorescence measurements were carried out to acquire instantaneous velocity and concentration fields on a vertical section parallel to the axis of a jet in the self-similar region. The refractive index matching method was applied to measure high-resolution buoyant jets with up to 8.6% density difference. These data are free of the typical errors that characterize optical measurements of buoyancy-driven flows (e.g. natural and mixed convection) where the refractive index of the fluid is inhomogeneous throughout the measurement domain. Turbulent statistics and entrainment of buoyant jets in uniform and stratified environments are presented. These data are compared with non-buoyant jets in a uniform environment, as a reference to investigate the effects of buoyancy and stratification on turbulent mixing. The results will be used for the assessment of current turbulence models and as a basis for the development of a new model that captures turbulent mixing.

laser induced fluorescence↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cool interstellar matter in early-type galaxies

IRAS fluxes of early-type galaxies have been examined. From studying a magnitude-limited sample, it seems that although the statistics are poor, perhaps a third of these objects and possibly even more have an appreciable amount of dust. In general, the infrared emission is strongest at 100 microns, and quite often the far-infrared luminosity of an early-type galaxy can be well in excess of 10 to the 8th solar luminosities. The data are most easily understood if the infrared results from dust reprocessing of starlight. Within 3 kpc of the center of an early-type galaxy, there may be more cold matter than hot gas; recent models that the interstellar media of these objects are composed primarily of hot gas appear to be oversimplifications. The X-ray data do indicate that the thermal pressure in the early-type galaxies often is sufficiently high that in view of the expected low temperatures of their interstellar clouds, it can be speculated that the cold material that is present may be forming low-mass stars.

Jura, M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D TRISO particle-explicit compact meshing

The TRI-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) layered fuel particle is a robust nuclear fuel form offering enhanced safety and performance for advanced reactor concepts, including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV designs. These poppy-seed-sized particles are embedded in a graphite matrix to form fuel elements that must withstand elevated temperatures and high burn-up levels. The heterogeneous nature of these fuel elements — comprising thousands of randomly distributed TRISO particles — produces complex stress fields and thermal gradients that one- and two-dimensional models cannot accurately capture. While three-dimensional modeling has improved predictions of dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport under irradiation, current approaches rely on homogenized material properties that are known to have considerable divergence from experimental observations. This work presents a methodology for optimized random packing of TRISO fuel compacts and full three-dimensional mesh generation within the BISON fuel performance code, with each particle coating layer individually discretized. The resulting mesh was demonstrated through heat conduction simulations under representative in-reactor operating conditions, showing strong agreement with expected behavior. This capability enables detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating layer failures — all of which directly govern fuel performance and safety margins.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1993

IUEAGN: A database of ultraviolet spectra of active galactic nuclei

In 13 years of operation, IUE has gathered approximately 5000 spectra of almost 600 Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). In order to undertake AGN studies which require large amounts of data, we are consistently reducing this entire archive and creating a homogeneous, easy-to-use database. First, the spectra are extracted using the Optimal extraction algorithm. Continuum fluxes are then measured across predefined bands, and line fluxes are measured with a multi-component fit. These results, along with source information such as redshifts and positions, are placed in the IUEAGN relational database. Analysis algorithms, statistical tests, and plotting packages run within the structure, and this flexible database can accommodate future data when they are released. This archival approach has already been used to survey line and continuum variability in six bright Seyfert 1s and rapid continuum variability in 14 blazars. Among the results that could only be obtained using a large archival study is evidence that blazars show a positive correlation between degree of variability and apparent luminosity, while Seyfert 1s show an anti-correlation. This suggests that beaming dominates the ultraviolet properties for blazars, while thermal emission from an accretion disk dominates for Seyfert 1s. Our future plans include a survey of line ratios in Seyfert 1s, to be fitted with photoionization models to test the models and determine the range of temperatures, densities and ionization parameters. We will also include data from IRAS, Einstein, EXOSAT, and ground-based telescopes to measure multi-wavelength correlations and broadband spectral energy distributions.

Pike, G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cosmic background radiation anisotropy at degree angular scales - Further results from the South Pole

We report further results from the University of California at Santa Barbara program to measure anisotropy in the cosmic background radiation at angular scales near 1 deg, an angular range corresponding to the largest scales where structure is observed. A 30 GHz high electron mobility transistor amplifier-based detector was coupled to the Advanced Cosmic Microwave Explorer, a 1 m off-axis Gregorian telescope. We present data that represent 64 of the total of 500 hr acquired with this system during the 1990-1991 season. The data have a statistical error of 13.5/micro-K/pixel. These are the smallest error bars of any data set of this type published to date. The data contain a significant signal with a maximum likelihood Delta T/T roughly 1 x 10 exp -5. The spectrum of the signal seen in slightly less than 2 sigma away from the thermal spectrum expected of primordial fluctuations in the cosmic background radiation. If the source of the fluctuations is primordial, then the data are consistent with cold dark matter scenarios when normalized to the large-scale anisotropy observed by COBE, while if the origin of the signal is foreground emission or another form of contaminant then the data are marginally inconsistent with standard cold dark matter models. In either case, the data are sufficiently sensitive to provide a crucial test of many models.

Schuster, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2002

Stratospheric Analysis and Forecasting in the Northern Winter of 1999/2000: The NASA DAO's GEOS-3 System

An evaluation is presented of the performance in the northern winter 1999/2000 of the GEOS-3 troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system (DAS). The impacts of the two main input data types are assessed: upper-air soundings (sondes) provide wind and temperature information and satellite-based (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounders: TOVS) give estimates of the thermal structure. It is shown that in the low stratosphere (300-70hPa) the analyses are generally slightly warmer than the sonde data, but colder than the TOVS data; this relationship reverses between 70 and 10 hPa. There are geographical biases, related to the spatial and temporal coverage of the observation types and to the statistical weights assigned to them in the DAS. Forecasts show a tendency to reduce zonal asymmetries in the atmospheric flow and to suppress stratospheric temperature minima. In the DAS, the analysis increments compensate for this, but it leads to important biases in the multi-day forecasts. The analysis increments are as large as the diabatic forcing in the lower polar stratosphere, indicating a substantial model bias. The results provide important insights into the roles of different data types and the circulation model in producing accurate analyses for studies of polar chemistry and physical processes.

Pawson, Steven↗