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At least 433 records · Page 24

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Quantitative Failure Analysis on Capacity Fade in Rechargeable Lithium Metal Cells

Rechargeable lithium battery (RLB) technology is transforming portable devices, vehicle electrification, and grid modernization. To make RLB durable, reliable and safe, conducting failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to identify failure mechanism under the operating conditions is very desirable. However, this ability is often overlooked or even lacking. The failure analysis (FA) is often conducted by laboratory testing and postmortem analysis, and the knowledge typically empirical. Here we present a quantitative approach for FMEA that can reveal how failure modes and effects reduce the capacity of a RLB. This approach is based on the state of the battery for FMEA, contrary to the conventional approach based on operating or testing conditions. The key aspect of this FMEA method is to convert the experimental results to a state-of-charge (SOC)-based analytic methodology. Such a conversion can separate the thermodynamic and kinetic attributes of capacity fade based on compositional correspondence in the electrode, so the loss and the decreased utilization of the active materials can be determined respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

Triple interference, non-linear Talbot effect and gravitization of the quantum

Recently we have discussed a new approach to the problem of quantum gravity in which the quantum mechanical structures that are traditionally fixed, such as the Fubini–Study metric in the Hilbert space of states, become dynamical and so implement the idea of gravitizing the quantum. Here, in this paper we elaborate on a specific test of this new approach to quantum gravity using triple interference in a varying gravitational field. Our discussion is driven by a profound analogy with recent triple-path interference experiments performed in the context of non-linear optics. We emphasize that the triple interference experiment in a varying gravitational field would deeply influence the present understanding of the kinematics of quantum gravity and quantum gravity phenomenology. We also discuss the non-linear Talbot effect as another striking phenomenological probe of gravitization of the geometry of quantum theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating power grid model hydropower feasibility with a river operations model

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate dispatch of generators across a large power grid and are used widely by planners to study the reliability of electricity supply. As energy systems transition away from the thermoelectric technologies that have traditionally balanced electricity supply and demand, hydropower and its representation in PCMs is of increasing importance. A limitation of PCMs applied to continental power grids with diverse generation portfolios is that hydropower generation is simulated without full consideration of complex river dynamics, leading to possible misrepresentation of grid flexibility and performance. In addition, data used in PCMs may reflect outdated operating policies. In this paper we propose a hydropower generation feasibility test for PCMs. The approach uses a detailed hydropower model to determine whether the hourly hydropower schedule from a PCM with simplified monthly parameterization can be attained after accounting for realistic river dynamics and operating policies, such as spill requirements and general water movement and balance through a cascade reservoir system. We perform this hydropower generation test for the ‘Big 10’ hydropower system on the Columbia River (part of the Western Interconnect of the United States), revealing 9% overestimation of available hydropower generation in a PCM solution in an average hydrologic year. Our evaluation provides insight on the cost and opportunities for better representing hydropower in PCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ACCELERATING MICROREACTOR DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT THROUGH JOINT PUBLIC TEST BEDS AND PRIVATE ADVANCED REACTOR DEVELOPMENT

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has funded the National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) to accelerate the development and commercialization of small modular reactors and other advanced reactor technologies. As part of this effort NIRC is building two strategic assets at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to facilitate public-private partnerships for the development and testing of advanced nuclear microreactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMR). One will provide a safe, secure, and affordable location for High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fueled reactors and a second for Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) fueled reactors. Together these testbeds fill a nuclear testing infrastructure gap. The availability of such comprehensive testing facilities at the national labs eliminates the significant financial and operational burdens associated with each developer building and licensing their own test facilities. Consequently, this approach will not only accelerate technological innovation and reduce time-to-market for advanced nuclear solutions but it also underscores the DOE's commitment to fostering an ecosystem where nuclear energy will thrive as a clean, reliable, and efficient source of power. The Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) and Laboratory for Operations and Testing in the United States (LOTUS) have planned availability in 2026, and 2027 respectively.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A machine-learning-aided data recovery approach for predicting multi-material thermal behaviors in advanced test reactor capsules

Instrumented experiments conducted at test reactors are essential to the deployment of new advanced reactor systems. Designing new experiments and generating data on specific reactor conditions require significant investments in terms of both time and cost. Finite element analysis software can be used to create high-fidelity models of experiment environments in order to support the actual experiments, but computation time remains a concern in terms of applying outcomes to real-time usage of data (e.g., a digital twin [DT]). Here, the present research proposes a machine-learning (ML) aided approach to making temperature and displacement predictions based on the thickness of the outer gas gap on the experimental capsule used for in-pile demonstration of a novel new thermal conductivity probe in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). This capsule consisted of U10Zr fuel, a rodlet, sodium, and inner and outer capsules. Gas gaps existed between the fuel and the rodlet, and between the inner and the outer capsule. The learning data pertained to an experimental capsule's radial distributions of temperature and displacement, as obtained based on Abaqus and the physical features. For the first step of ML sequence, the temperature was predicted using three positional parameters. Next, the displacement was predicted using seven additional parameters. Each physical feature was normalized in order to be both nondimensional and standardized. The temperature and displacement predictions showed good agreement with the simulation results in all cases involving interpolation and extrapolation. Furthermore, data similarity enhancement increased the similarity between the training and the target data, thereby increasing the predictive accuracy of the ML models. In certain extrapolation cases involving limited original ML model accuracy, data similarity enhancement and data recovery was able to somewhat improve this accuracy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of Methane Generation from the Thermolysis of Organics in Caustic Waste

Methane generation has been detected during thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate (HGR) testing of SRS tank waste and in simulant samples. Simulant testing has shown methane generation in the presence of trimethylsilanol (TMS) and radioactive sample testing has shown methane generation in presence of methylmercury, both of which are found within SRS waste tanks. The 2019 report Evaluation of the Current State of Knowledge for Thermolysis of Organics within SRS Waste Forming Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) reviewed historical data and assessed literature pertaining to thermolytic methane generation. That review recommended undertaking thermolysis studies on simulated waste to detect and quantify VOCs. The purpose of this assessment is to review chemistry and current knowledge of organics in SRS waste to recommend which organics in SRS waste tanks, if any, should be tested for thermolytic methane generation. An evaluation of observed methane generation rates has been performed to assess the implication for current CSTF controls. Based on the inputs used in this report, it was concluded that no methane generation data observed to date has challenged the existing 5% organic contribution to the Composite Lower Flammability Limit (CLFL) assumption in the CSTF tank farm at temperatures below 100 °C. Evidence shows that thermolytic pathways to methane generation become significant at temperatures >100 °C in caustic waste. Currently, the influences of thermolytic methane production on the flammability of vessels at >100 °C (e.g., evaporators) is unclear. It is recommended that testing should be undertaken using the HGR experimental approach for methane generation. The initial simulant testing should obtain quantitative methane generation rates at elevated temperatures for methylated siloxanes/silanes and methylmercury with the goal of determining the current mechanism for thermolytic methane generation seen in SRS tank waste. The results of this testing should then be compiled and analyzed to ascertain the risk of challenging the current projected organic contribution of 5% to the CLFL at elevated temperatures. Following this testing, an evaluation of possible flammable gas generation in the 2H and 3H Evaporators should be performed to assess the risk of methane generation at the high temperatures employed by the evaporators.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Relaxations of the steady optimal gas flow problem for a non-Ideal gas

Natural gas ranks second in U.S. primary energy consumption. Because most production sites are remote, gas must be transported through pipeline networks equipped with compressors, valves, and other components. For both economic efficiency and system reliability, it is desirable to operate these networks optimally. The governing physics across pipeline components entails nonlinear, non-convex equality and inequality constraints, and the most general steady-flow operations problem is a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP).This work focuses on one such steady-flow problem-the Optimal Gas Flow (OGF) for a natural gas pipeline network-which minimizes production cost subject to the steady-flow physics. For day-to-day operations, the ability to quickly compute a globally optimal solution and a strong lower bound for varying demand profiles is crucial. A promising strategy is to build tight relaxations of the OGF’s nonlinear constraints. However, many nonlinearities arising from non-ideal equations of state either lack relaxations or have relaxations that do not scale to realistic network sizes. We address this gap by combining recent advances in polyhedral relaxations for univariate functions to construct tight, computationally efficient relaxations of the OGF with a non-ideal equation of state. These relaxations solve within seconds on a standard laptop. In conclusion, we demonstrate their quality through extensive numerical experiments on very large-scale test networks from the literature and find that the proposed approach proves optimality in 92% of tested instances.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Computer Vision Pipeline for Image Analysis for Freeze‐Fracture Electron Microscopy: Rosette Cellulose Synthase Complexes Case

In materials science, plant biology, agriculture, and environmental research, the automated analysis of high-magnification, complex microscopy images, such as those generated by freeze-fracture electron microscopy (FF-TEM), remains a critical challenge that limits the scalability of data interpretation. We present a deep learning computer vision pipeline for high-throughput detection and morphological characterization analysis of cellulose synthase complexes (CSCs, or rosettes) in FF-TEM images. The pipeline integrates preprocessing, detection, human-in-the-loop verification, and semantic segmentation to quantify features such as rosette diameter and inter-lobe spacing. The approach was trained and tested on a curated dataset of high-resolution FF-TEM micrographs of Physcomitrium patens, expanded via strategic tiling and augmentation to over 650 images. We compare YOLOv8 and YOLOv9 architectures and demonstrate that YOLOv9 achieves superior performance in both localization accuracy (mAP50-95 = 0.854) and inference speed. The resulting distributions revealed biological variability consistent with prior manual studies, validating the approach for high-throughput applications. Our results show that the pipeline achieves human-expert level accuracy while dramatically reducing analysis time, enabling scalable, reproducible structural characterization of intramembrane protein complexes. The pipeline is broadly applicable to other domains requiring precise interpretation of complex microscopy data and establishes a foundation for future artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted workflows in biological imaging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multimodal Approaches for Leveraging Domain Knowledge with State-of-the-Art Machine Learning to Engineer Biocatalysts

This grant aimed to accelerate the development of specialized enzymes—biological catalysts essential for sustainable manufacturing and medicine—by integrating traditional laboratory evolution with cutting-edge artificial intelligence. To achieve this, we developed a suite of high-throughput sequencing tools and a centralized database to bridge the gap between a protein’s genetic "code" and its physical function. By training machine learning models on large datasets, we also demonstrated the ability to move beyond slow, trial-and-error testing to a "generative" approach, where AI can independently design new, versatile enzymes like tryptophan synthases. Ultimately, these findings demonstrate that combining laboratory data with computer-guided design enables the engineering of highly efficient biological tools with unprecedented speed and precision.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deployment Readiness Framework Subtask 1.1 (Literature Review)

Island and remote coastal communities face some of the most challenging environments for building, operating, and maintaining energy infrastructure, as well as the highest costs for electricity, fuels, and other essential energy sources. As sea-levels rise and storms become more intense and frequent, these communities and the energy infrastructure that supports coastal lives and livelihoods are also at increasing risk from natural hazards. To address these challenges, many coastal communities are envisioning energy solutions that will support the triple bottom line goals of the blue economy: economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Yet, island and remote coastal communities often face limited resources and capacity to tackle complex energy and coastal resilience issues. To support community-driven energy transitions in island and remote communities, and to better understand relationships between energy, community, and ecosystem resilience, the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has initiated the development of a Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF). The objective of the work is to co-produce and test practical tools and approaches that assess the readiness of coastal communities for marine energy demonstration, deployment, and operation. The DRF aims to build on and support the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) and other community-oriented energy transition programs. This project is jointly led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The development of the DRF includes three main phases: 1) a learning phase involving stakeholder engagement and literature review to synthesize metrics of community readiness to advance through an energy transition and to understand the state of the research and practice of participatory science-policy processes in various sectors, 2) a design phase to define readiness approaches and tools that will be developed as part of the DRF, and 3) an implementation phase to create the applications and interfaces for WPTO and the national laboratories to interact with the DRF. All three phases include close collaboration with communities and end-users of the framework, first to identify gaps in the science and tools needed to achieve community-driven energy transition goals and second, to test and improve the framework iteratively. Through technical assistance programs like ETIPP and utilizing the completed DRF to understand the influencing factors which motivate or deter energy transitions, WPTO hopes to engage a number of near-term marine energy demonstration opportunities. Here we report on the results from the literature review (Subtask 1.1) to inform the stakeholder engagement (Subtask 1.2) and design phase (Task 2) of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICSTUDY) Field Campaign Report

The aerosol-ice formation closure pilot study (AEROICESTUDY) was a field campaign conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory from October 7 to 28, 2019. The purpose of this campaign was to test a field observational approach for conducting an aerosol-ice formation closure study. In other words, the goal was to predict the number of ice nucleating particles (INPs) from the measurements of physical and chemical aerosol properties and compare those to measured INP number concentrations. This project was motivated by the fact that the aerosol community has widely conducted aerosol radiative closure, aerosol-cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN-droplet closure studies to test the physical models and parameterizations that cloud-resolving and climate models rely on to perform reliable simulations of the Earth system and energy budget. However, very few closure studies related to INPs have been conducted, and to our knowledge, none using robust, size-resolved, ambient aerosol composition measurements as model inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating methods to reduce duration of near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate measurements for low-alloy steels in hydrogen gas

Measurement of the near-threshold fatigue crack growth rate (da/dN) vs. stress-intensity factor range (∆K) relationship in hydrogen gas is essential for maximizing the calculated design fatigue life of high-pressure hydrogen storage vessels. However, such measurements are rarely performed, since the low cyclic loading frequencies applied in standard practice lead to prohibitively protracted test durations. The objective of this study was to demonstrate two means for reducing test durations when measuring near-threshold da/dN vs. ΔK relationships under decreasing ΔK for low-alloy pressure vessel steels in hydrogen gas: 1) imposing steeper K-gradients relative to the recommended limits in standards such as ASTM E647, and 2) increasing cyclic loading frequency relative to typical values applied during fatigue crack growth testing of low-alloy steels in hydrogen gas. Recognizing that steeper K-gradients could amplify loading-history effects, test methods employing this approach were designed to mitigate such effects by either maintaining constant K max or gradually increasing the K-gradient as the threshold was approached. Although the varying K-gradient method was vulnerable to loading-history effects in the form of plasticity-induced crack closure, particularly at lower stress ratio (R) and higher starting K max values, these effects could be compensated by applying the adjusted compliance ratio (ACR) method. Here, it was demonstrated that steeper K-gradients in concert with increased cyclic loading frequency reduced the duration of near-threshold fatigue crack growth tests in hydrogen gas by more than 99% relative to standard practices.

Fatigue threshold↗

Computationally Guided Design of Multiple Impurities Tolerant Cathode for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Applications

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) have been recognized as promising candidates in the demand of reducing the dependence on fossil fuels, which is one of the solutions to the threat of global warming. It was reported that the direct chemical-to-electrical energy conversion in SOFCs comes with negligible emission of greenhouse gases and up to 60% working efficiency. SOFC has unique advantages over traditional power generation technologies and other types of fuel cells due to the use of relatively inexpensive materials, low sensitivity to poisoning impurities in fuels, relatively high conversion efficiency, and fuel flexibility (like carbon-based fuels). However, during the SOFC operation, the cathode is exposed to intrinsic and extrinsic airborne contaminants at high temperatures (600–900°C), leading to their reaction with electrode materials, irreversible chemical and structural changes, and electrochemical performance degradation. of which CO2, SO2, Cr6+ and H2O are known to be concerns. Thus, developing a comprehensive understanding of the multiple impurities poisoning of SOFC cathodes in the presence of single or multiple impurities is necessary to address the long-term degradation of the SOFC cathode systems at operating conditions. An integrated computational and experimental approach has been utilized in the current work aiming at the comprehensive investigation of the cathode materials under single or multiple impurities poisoning effects, understanding the multiple impurities poisoning mechanism(s), and improving the long-term durability of the SOFC cathodes to develop better performing impurity-tolerant cathode materials. We first examined the agreement between the simulation approach and the experimental observations at various atmospheric and temperature conditions to confirm the reliability of CALPHAD for poisoning simulations in these cathodes. Then, using this approach, we investigated the accelerated testing protocol, which has become the standard method for conducting impurity poisoning experiments involving these cathode materials. We found our simulation approach is able to predict in which systems, i.e., cathode material and treatment environment, the accelerated testing protocols reflect actual operating conditions. Finally, in-depth simulations were done for these three candidate cathodes under different experimental conditions and suggested directions toward alternative cathode materials that have superior impurity tolerance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Criticality analysis of nuclear binding energy neural networks

Machine learning methods, in particular deep learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) with many layers, have become widespread and useful tools in nuclear physics. However, these ANNs are typically treated as ‘black boxes’, with their architecture (width, depth, and weight/bias initialization) and the training algorithm and parameters chosen empirically by optimizing learning based on limited exploration. We test a non-empirical approach to understanding and optimizing nuclear physics ANNs by adapting a criticality analysis based on renormalization group flows in terms of the hyperparameters for weight/bias initialization, training rates, and the ratio of depth to width. This treatment utilizes the statistical properties of neural network initialization to find a generating functional for network outputs at any layer, allowing for a path integral formulation of the ANN outputs as a Euclidean statistical field theory. We use a prototypical example to test the applicability of this approach: a simple ANN for nuclear binding energies. We find that with training using a stochastic gradient descent optimizer, the predicted criticality behavior is realized, and optimal performance is found with critical tuning. However, the use of an adaptive learning algorithm leads to somewhat superior results without concern for tuning and thus obscures the analysis. Nevertheless, the criticality analysis offers a way to look within the black box of ANNs, which is a first step towards potential improvements in network performance beyond using adaptive optimizers.

artificial neural network↗

Reopening California: Seeking robust, non-dominated COVID-19 exit strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the performance of composite schemes in determining equilibrium molecular structures

Determination of equilibrium molecular structures is an essential ingredient in predicting spectroscopic parameters that help in identifying molecular carriers of microwave transitions. Here, in this study, the performance of two different ab initio composite approaches for obtaining equilibrium structures, “energy scheme” and “geometry scheme,” is explored and compared to semi-experimental equilibrium structures. This study is performed for a set of 11 molecules which includes diatomics, linear triatomics, and a few non-linear molecules. The ab initio calculations were performed using three tiers of composite chemical recipes. The current results show that as the overall rigor of calculation is increased, the semi-experimental and the ab initio numbers agree to within 0.0003 Å for all molecules in the test set. The composite approach based on correcting the potential energy surface (energy scheme) and the one based on correcting the geometry directly (geometry scheme) show excellent agreement with each other. This work represents a step toward development of efficient and highly accurate procedures for computing ab initio equilibrium structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗