A study program on the development of mathematical model/s/ for microbial burden prediction. Volume 1 - Technical report Final report
Mathematical models and computer program for microbial burden prediction - phases 1, 2, 3
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Mathematical models and computer program for microbial burden prediction - phases 1, 2, 3
Mathematical models and computer program for microbial burden prediction - phases 4, 5, 6
The Stanford Watershed Model, the Kentucky Watershed Model and OPSET program, and the NASA-IBM system for simulation and analysis of watersheds are described in terms of their applications to the study of remote sensing of water resources. Specific calibration processes and input and output parameters that are instrumental in the simulations are explained for the following kinds of data: (1) hourly precipitation data; (2) daily discharge data; (3) flood hydrographs; (4) temperature and evaporation data; and (5) snowmelt data arrays. The Sensitivity Analysis Task, which provides a method for evaluation of any of the separate simulation runs in the form of performance indices, is also reported. The method is defined and a summary of results is given which indicates the values obtained in the simulation runs performed for Town Creek, Alabama; Alamosa Creek, Colorado; and Pearl River, Louisiana. The results are shown in tabular and plot graph form. For Vol. 1, see N74-27813.
In order to model and study the interactions between social on technical systems, a systemic method, namely the composite socio-technical systems (CSTS), is proposed to incorporate social systems, technical systems and the interaction mechanism between them. A case study on University of Denver (DU) campus grid is presented in paper to demonstrate the application of the proposed method. In the case study, the social system, technical system, and the interaction mechanism are defined and modelled within the framework of CSTS. Distributed and centralized control and management schemes are investigated, respectively, and numerical results verifies the feasibility and performance of the proposed composite system method.
This technical memorandum (TM) seeks to model and discuss aspects of nanoparticle and micrometer-scale particle or ‘microparticle’ inclusions in refractory metal alloy manufacturing, via a currently used additive manufacturing (AM) method that results in equivalent wt.% addition of dissolved elements in the melt pool composition and subsequent formation of nanometer-scale MC and MO inclusions. Additionally, the authors begin to consider the effects of oxygen (O), a ubiquitous impurity, in AM; and seek to understand a combined optimization of alloying, nano- and micro strengthening and refinement, elemental additions, and even in-situ compounds and alloys species formation. To gain insights, this TM focuses on a pair of refractory alloys currently of interest to NASA: tungsten-rhenium-tantalum carbide (with O impurities) (W-Re-TaC(-O)) and tungsten-rhenium-tantalum-carbon (with O impurities) (W-Re-Ta-C(-O)), which are processed via powder bed fusion (PBF)-SLM.
The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.
A study has been performed on the technical feasibility and cost of a TPV system for an alternative space power supply. An analysis of six previous studies has been performed and a consistent optical, thermal, and electrical model developed. A search of the literature for materials data has been augmented by an experimental test program on materials and breadboard subsystems of the TPV. These data have been used in the model to determine the technical feasibility and the degree of performance that might be expected from such a system. A system design study was then conducted to optimize the launch configuration, the weight, and the cost of the TPV space power system. Results from this study were used to define a specific design which could be used in a detailed cost analysis. A cost analysis was then performed to determine the relative costs of the TPV power system. It appears that a system having a specific power greater than 150 W/kg can be produced for approximately 30 dollars per watt.
In this work, a Serpent 2 neutronics model of the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator is prepared, and an response function for the Scintillating-Fibre neutron detector (SciFi) is calculated using the model. The neutronics model includes the simplified geometry for the key components of the stellarator itself as well as the torus hall. The objective of the model is to assess the 14.1 MeV neutron flux from deuteron-triton fusions in W7-X, where the neutrons are modelled only until they have slowed down to 1 MeV energy. The key messages of this article are: demonstration of unstructured mesh geometry usage for stellarators, W7-X in particular; technical documentation of the model and first insights in fast neutron behaviour in W7-X, especially related to the SciFi: the model indicates that the superconducting coils are the strongest scatterers and block neutrons from large parts of the plasma. The back-scattering from e.g. massive steel support structures is found to be small. The SciFi will detect neutrons from an extended plasma volume in contrast to having an effective line-of-sight.
This paper is for the AIAA Space Conference. The ability of systems engineers to use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to generate self-consistent, up-to-date systems engineering products for project life-cycle and technical reviews is an important aspect for the continued and accelerated acceptance of MBSE. Currently, many review products are generated using labor-intensive, error-prone approaches based on documents, spreadsheets, and chart sets; a promised benefit of MBSE is that users will experience reductions in inconsistencies and errors. This work examines features of SysML that can be used to generate systems engineering products. Model elements, relationships, tables, and diagrams are identified for a large number of the typical systems engineering artifacts. A SysML system model can contain and generate most systems engineering products to a significant extent and this paper provides a guide on how to use MBSE to generate products for project life-cycle and technical reviews. The use of MBSE can reduce the schedule impact usually experienced for review preparation, as in many cases the review products can be auto-generated directly from the system model. These approaches are useful to systems engineers, project managers, review board members, and other key project stakeholders.
Abstract We introduce Cropbox, a novel modelling framework that supports various aspects of crop modelling in a unique yet concise style. Building a crop model can be easily riddled with technical details looking trivial at first but later becoming major obstacles that hamper the whole development or application process. This is particularly the case when implementing models from scratch without relying on an established framework. Cropbox adopts a declarative approach providing a domain-specific language to reduce technical debt and assist modellers to focus on high-level abstraction formed by relations between variables and enclosing systems, rather than tinkering with low-level implementation details. The syntax of Cropbox framework is based on the Julia programming language and is deliberately constrained to avoid unintended side effects caused by common mistakes while its architecture remains open to extension. We highlight key capabilities of the framework through case studies featuring a leaf gas-exchange model and a whole-plant simulation model. We also illustrate potential extensions for supporting functional-structural plant modelling by demonstrating a 3D root architectural model as an example.
Two models were developed to predict glycolate concentration factors across the 242-25H (3H) Evaporator system. The first model, identified as the Unrestricted Evaporation Model, was designed to evaluate concentration of typical 3H feed material to relatively high densities in order to calculate the concentration factor of glycolate in a given feed stream. This model may be used to understand the potential of glycolate to concentrate from a generic feed material through the 3H system. The second model, identified as the Holistic Evaporation Model, was designed to evaluate the evaporation of dilute, glycolate-containing Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) waste with the requirement that high silicon concentrations typical of recycle material require dilution to adhere to current technical safety requirements. This model may be used to understand the potential of glycolate from DWPF recycle material to concentrate as a result of feeding through the 3H system.
This final report for the AToM project documents contributions from University of California, San Diego researchers over the period of 9/1/2014 – 8/31/2017. The primary focus of these efforts was on performing validation studies of core tokamak transport models using the OMFIT framework, including development of OMFIT workflow scripts. Additional work was performed to develop tools for use of the nonlinear magnetohydrodynamics code NIMROD in OMFIT, and its use in the study of runaway electron dynamics in tokamak disruptions.
The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.
The design features of the SUMC-2B computer, also called the IBM-HTC are described. It is general purpose digital computer implemented with flexible hardware elements and microprograming to enable low cost customizing to a wide range of applications. It executes the S/360 standard instruction set to maintain problem state compability. Memory technology, extended instruction sets, and I/O channel variations are among the available options.
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Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.
Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.
The Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs (1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables; (2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output; (3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for nonexperts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits, and limitations; and (4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80; many are undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 are proposed and under consideration. A partial list of current global satellite-based datasets includes humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; and ozone (O 3 ), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) products. A partial list of proposed products expected to be useful in analyzing CMIP6 results includes the following: alternative products for the above quantities, additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g., FAPAR, LAI, burned area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While most existing obs4MIPs datasets consist of monthly-mean gridded data over the global domain, products with higher time resolution (e.g., daily) and/or regional products are now receiving more attention. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including (1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, (2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset's maturity and suitability for application, and (3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth system models used in CMIP.