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Methods for the Enhancement of Security Probabilistic Risk Assessments

The US Department of Energy is exploring the methods associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and how they could be used to enhance physical security evaluations for nuclear facilities. A brief review of both international and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission physical security assessment methods is presented. From this review, and with an understanding of the technical elements associated with a traditional nuclear safety PRA, several observations are made pertaining to where physical security analysis methods could be enhanced. These observations principally support and enhance the answers within a physical security context to the risk triplet: (1) What can go wrong? (2) What is the likelihood? and (3) What are the consequences? Finally, benefits and technical challenges toward the development of a full security PRA are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Multi-Sourced Collaboration for the Production and Refining of Rare Elements and Critical Metals (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop a feasible and cost-effective method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) and critical materials (CMs) from coal and coal byproducts, resulting in high-purity individually separated REEs and CMs. The targeted REEs included Y, Pr, Nd, Gd, Dy, and Sm, with a purity of over 99.5%, while the CMs included Co, Mn, Ga, Sr, Li, Ni, Zn, and Ge, with a purity of over 90%. The project aimed to design a prototype facility capable of producing 1-3 tonnes/day of high-purity REO mixes. The work was divided into four designated circuits: 1) REE extraction and concentration, 2) REE separation and purification, 3) RE metal production, and 4) CM production. To achieve these goals, the project involved 11 tasks, including technology reviews, research, process flow diagram development, mass balance estimation, and preliminary technical-economic analysis. The project team included researchers from the University of Kentucky, University of Alabama and Virginia Tech as well as process specialists from Argonne National Laboratory. MP Materials provided technical support regarding rare earth markets and processing while Alliance Coal performed resource assessment. The project included a market analysis for Nd/Pr, Tb, Dy, Gd, Y, Co, Mn, Li, Sr, Ga, Ni, Zn, and Ge. These analyses provided insights into the supply and demand trends as well as historic and future projections of market price relative to purity requirements for these elements. Two coal resources were selected for the project: the West Kentucky No. 13 (Baker) Seam and an undisclosed lignite resource in the Illinois coal basin. The estimated quantities of REEs in these resources were calculated based on production samples and drilling data. It was estimated that there is adequate supply for an operation producing one metric ton daily of higher purity mixed rare earth oxides (MREO) for approximately 20 years at a site located in western Kentucky. In Circuit 1, project data was obtained from a pilot heap leach and REE concentration facility. It was concluded that the existing circuit, which generated a MREO concentrate, two types of CM mixed products, and Li- and Sr-containing waters, would be suitable feed for circuits 2-4. Data from the first-of-its-kind coal coarse refuse heap leach pilot pad played a crucial role in estimating reliable elemental concentrations of the pregnant leaching solution (PLS). The average total REE concentration in the PLS was found to be 28.6 ppm. In Circuit 2, several concepts were explored including a novel process referred to as solvent-assisted chromatography (SAC). This concept involved a novel columnar reactor that incorporated multiple mixer/settlers, thereby enabling the operation of counter-flowing aqueous and organic phases. Unfortunately, due to project time constraints, a complete fundamental modeling analysis could not be completed to fully evaluate the technology. Molten salt electrowinning was considered as an alternative for circuit 3 following circuit 2 purification circuit utilizing the novel SAC process. A mass and energy balance of Nd reduction to metal in a fluoride containing molten salt electrolyte was conducted. Comparisons were made with the current state of Asian molten salt electrorefining, and potential improvements in siphoning rare earth metals (REM) from the reactor were presented. A cost estimate was performed for the production of 1 tonne per day, which yielded a total of $2.29 million for the nine electrowinning (EW) cells required. The selected option for circuits 2 and 3 was a plasma distillation process, which initially separates rare earth elements (REEs) from other elements. This is followed by selective electrowinning in various ionic liquids. The selection was made on the basis of thermodynamic modeling and experimental data previously published by a project partner. The combination offers an innovative approach to integrated refining and RE metal production. For Circuit 4, an extensive literature review was conducted for the processing of the CMs. The ultimate decision was to utilize a combined plasma and ionic liquid process as well to produce individual high-purity concentrates of Zn, Ni, Co, Mn, and Mg. A separate flowsheet for Li and Sr was recommended, which would yield carbonates of these elements. Due to the lack of suitable experimental data at this time, a process recommendation could not be provided but several methods have been proposed for consideration. Lastly, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed process for further investigation. The TEA results revealed a capital expense (CapEx) of $737 million and an annual operational expense (OpEx) of $220 million. Due to the selected elements, the hypothetical heap leach pad can produce 1 metric tonne per day of REO equivalent, but a conscious decision was made to only treat targeted REEs, resulting in the production of 0.4 metric tonne of REM. An estimated annual revenue of $90.87 million was projected based on standard market pricing information provided by the funding agency. During the TEA, ten different modules were evaluated for costing purposes. The precipitation circuit was identified as the largest single operational expense, followed by the Mg/Mn process due to the amount of treated metal. In terms of capital expenditures, the heap leach process incurred the highest cost, followed by the Mg/Mn process. The scalability of the plasma process is a crucial consideration since the reactors cannot be scaled beyond the largest demonstrated size due to their reliance on surface area of the slag and vapor phase. The purity estimate for the REEs are generally 98%±2% to produce a metal. The purity level being lower than the project objective was due to the lack of specific experimental data needed to tighten the tolerance of the estimates. Based on literature and previous experience, the CMs are estimated as follows; Ga (95%+, metal), Sr (95%+, carbonate), Li (95%+, carbonate), Ni (98%±2%, metal), Zn (95%+, metal sponge), Ge (95%+, metal), Co (98%±2%, metal), and Mn (98%±2%, metal).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Distributed Wind Certification Best Practices Guideline: January 16, 2023 - January 15, 2026

This Distributed Wind (DW) Certification Best Practices Guideline describes the typical approach for certification of distributed wind turbines above and below 150 kilowatts (kW) in size based on the conformity assessment requirements in the United States. The purpose of the guideline is to clarify and consistently describe the path to certification for various systems and components by helping the user navigate the complex path to certification compliance. This is done via clarification of both the required turbine type certification elements, as well as third-party electrical safety listing of turbine system components and subassemblies. In the United States specifically, there is no wind turbine certification scheme that governs or maintains a consistent set of conformity assessment requirements, and this can lead to wide ranging interpretations of the standards and required elements for certifications. This guideline attempts to simplify the path by organizing the information and guiding the user to the applicable set of requirements. Any wind turbine manufacturer or designer of wind turbines used in distributed generation applications in the United States would find value in the conformity assessment guidance in this guideline. Users are expected to be involved in the technical development of the product and supporting documentation, as the details provided are geared towards electrical and mechanical engineering of the system and components.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Assessment of Flow-Enhanced Electrochemical Sensor Testing and Deployments

The goal of our activities in FY24 was to enable advanced materials accountancy for molten salt reactors (MSRs) through the development and optimization of robust flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors (FEES) using a safeguards-focused sensor testing platform called the modular flow instrumentation testbed (MFIT). Flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors are a type of electroanalytical sensor that have been developed at Argonne National Laboratory to be installed directly into MSR flow conduits to make measurements of the salt composition. These sensors represent a significant improvement in capabilities compared to earlier electroanalytical sensors that instead can only be operated in quiescent conditions. Previous work has focused on testing of the FEES in flowing conditions provided by the MFIT to assess the accuracy and precision of the sensor measurements. This year, the FEES technical readiness was increased by (1) demonstrating the use of optimized sensor techniques to achieve measurements in very high-concentration MSR-relevant salts, (2) leveraging new multimodal sensors and automation approaches to reduce measurement uncertainties, and (3) fabricating and deploying sensors to industrial partners to improve their ability to make measurements in challenging environments. Additionally, we also ran the sensors during complex system operations involving combined flow and purification activities to demonstrate safeguards-relevant measurements during online processing for MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Secure and Resilient Operations Using Open-Source Distributed Systems Platform (OpenDSP)

The goal of this project is to identify and address cybersecurity gaps by developing a multi-layer multi-channel cyber-physical defense and survival mechanism for operating distribution networks with high penetration of solar / inverter-based resource (IBR) / distributed energy resource (DER). The proposed security enhancements are built upon the distributed framework and solution architecture for both information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) systems. The technical solutions consist of two composite functionalities and six layers: proactive defense (vulnerability assessment, communication protection, and attack detection, as layers 1-3), and adaptive self-healing (attack-resilient control, adaptive recovery, and resilient survival, as layers 4-6). These layers, built on and extended from DHS CISA Cyber Framework, establish an integrated and robust cybersecurity framework for operating large-scale distribution networks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Algae Hydrothermal Liquefaction: End-of-Project Report

This document is a close-out report for two Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) projects funded by the Alternative Fuels and Feedstocks Office (formerly the Bioenergy Technologies Office) of the Department of Energy (DOE). The two projects are: • Thermochemical Interface (DOE ref. no. 1.3.4.101, PNNL ref. no. 64490) • HTL Model Development (DOE ref. no. 1.3.5.202, PNNL ref. no. 71612) At the end of fiscal year 2025, both projects ended. Additional activities related to the topics of algae, hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), and the techno-economic assessment of HTL of algal feedstocks will be studied in other projects. Key technical findings of the projects were published in early 2025 and highlights will be summarized in this document. A summary of recent technical findings from 2025 are also included herein. This close-out report summarizes key outcomes from both projects highlighting the value and technical impact achieved.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Analysis of Hydrogen Export Potential

The goal of this work is to assess the potential for US export of hydrogen. This covers export market potential, technical production potential and the ability to leverage existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDROGEN↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) were formulated using anthracite and thermoplastic binder. Lab scale test composites were formed by hot-press molding and commercial extrusion for test articles and for a full-scale prototype. Formulations and test matrices followed a systematic experimental design to examine the effects of and interactions among three primary independent variables: a) thermoplastic type, b) weight fractions of binder relative to the total anthracite weight, and c) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions. Technical performance metrics include compressive strength, modulus, porosity/permeability and density. These DoE studies establish composition-property relations and identify the best combination for any desired property of interest – in particular, strength. Based on CBB composition and fabrication process, validated against technical performance metrics, a techno-economic analysis was constructed which incorporated a process flow model, engineering design (with scaling), and calculated capital plus operating costs. Based on measured property metrics and estimated process economics and a projected price by TEA (techno-economic analysis), building and construction target markets were identified by a market survey assessment. With known cost, price, performance metrics and competitive advantages for CBBs matched with commercial applications/uses, a technical gap analysis was performed to identify further development required for scale-up and commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Proceedings of the 2021 Airborne Wind Energy Workshop

On March 2-3, 2021, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a virtual workshop to evaluate the status, potential development, and technical viability of AWE systems as a source of energy in the United States. Stakeholder input provided at the workshop will contribute to the report to Congress. This report summarizes key workshop findings, current technology research and development activities in the United States, and opportunities and potential modes of collaboration and coordination for future technology research and development activities. The workshop focused on U.S. stakeholders in AWE, with approximately 100 experts and industry stakeholders from AWE technology developers, operators, engineering firms, consultants, government, national laboratories, and university researchers. The workshop began with an explanation from DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) Technology Manager, Ben Hallissy, of the context and purpose of the workshop, including a request from Congress that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) deliver a "report on the potential for, and technical viability of, airborne wind energy systems to provide a significant source of energy in the United States, including a summary of research, development, demonstration, and commercialization needs, including an estimate of Federal funding requirements, to further examine and validate the technical and economic viability of airborne wind energy concepts over the 10-year period." The workshop began with brief introductions from attendees who explained their interest in AWE. Nicolas El Hayek of Planair summarized the proceedings from the AWE workshop held in September 2020 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 11. This was followed by a presentation by Roland Schmehl of TU-Delft summarizing European AWE R&D efforts. Chris Vermillion of North Carolina State University and Jason Jonkman of NREL presented an overview of U.S. R&D efforts. Then five panelists discussed AWE markets, sizes of AWE systems, challenges, and opportunities. Panelists included: Cristina Archer, professor at the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment and associate director at the Center for Research in Wind (CReW) at the University of Delaware; Stephan Brabeck, chief technology officer at SkySails; Thierry Delahave, innovation and technology development lead at Saipem; Rob Creighton, founder and chief executive officer at WindLift; and David Schaefer, founder and chief executive officer at eWind Solutions. The second day of the workshop began with a brief overview of five key topics that are crucial to enabling AWE in the United States. These topics range from estimates of the U.S. wind resource, technical generation potential, economic analysis, environmental challenges, status of current technology and R&D activities, and needed activities to enable commercialization of AWE. This set the stage for a robust discussion in breakout groups where individuals could offer their opinions on the potential opportunities for AWE in the United States. The following topics were discussed in the breakout groups: resource potential and energy output, technical potential, social and environmental impacts, and permitting, techno-economic analysis and markets, technology assessment and upscaling and demonstration and commercialization needs. The second day concluded with reports by the NREL research team, communicating the key themes and outcomes from each of the breakout group discussions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ANDRA's Underground Research Laboratory in Bure: Major Role in the Cigeo Development - 20005

The Industrial Center for Geological Disposal, also called Cigeo, is the deep geological disposal facility project developed by Andra since 1991. It is intended for the final disposal of High-Level Waste (HLW) and Intermediate Level Waste-Long Lived (ILW-LL) generated in France by the nuclear industry. Cigeo is located in the east of France (Meuse/Haute-Marne site). The disposal will be implemented in a 140 to 160 m thick clay layer at about 500 m depth. The license application file will be submitted in 2020. If the license is granted, the construction of the pilot phase of Cigeo (ramp, shafts, drifts, initial disposal vaults) could start in 2025 at the earliest. Since 2000, the development of the safety case of Cigeo for post closure has been supported by a three-stage construction, design, and scientific and technological experiment program performed in the French Underground Research Laboratory (URL) in Bure. These stages of the URL activities supported the iterative interactions between the knowledge acquired by scientific and technological R and D program, the design process and the safety assessment. The stages focused on assessing the suitability of the disposal concept, providing the basis for safety options and construction design, and preparing for licensing using large scale demonstrations. Recently, Andra launched the fourth development stage of the URL to implement a new set of technological experiments aiming at consolidating the design options of disposal cells and galleries for the pilot phase of Cigeo and at assessing monitoring technologies. Recently, Andra launched the fourth development stage of the URL to implement a new set of technological experiments aiming at consolidating the design of the pilot phase of Cigeo and at assessing design options and monitoring technologies. Removal of a segment ring, construction of an X drift crossing, improved construction techniques for HLW vaults, and construction of an ILW-LL prototype disposal vault are example activities during the fourth phase. In the future, the URL in Bure will remain a unique location to carry out research on promising technical solutions, to reduce Cigeo's construction and operation risks and strengthen the long-term safety assessment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Annual Summary Report for the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility—FY2021

This Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 annual summary report (ASR) documents the continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA), the composite analysis (CA) and associated operating disposal-authorization statement (ODAS) technical basis documents for the Remote Handled (RH) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Disposal Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Annual review of the adequacy of the PA and CA for the RHLLW Disposal Facility ensures that conclusions of the analyses remain valid in accordance with requirements of Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management.” In FY 2021, no significant operational changes or other activities occurred that would cause deviation from the assumptions in the PA and CA pertaining to disposal geometry, verification of waste characteristics, tracking disposal inventories against total limits, facility closure design, or institutional controls. Sixteen total waste-canister shipments were received at the RHLLW Disposal Facility, and 16 total waste canisters were emplaced.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors

Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-min demand for the National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-min maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0 kW; IQR 7.0–11.5 kW, 95% CI 9.6–9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98% of homes with hypothetical 100 A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28%; median 10%; IQR 0–58%; CI 28–29%) were higher than those for new loads (21%; median 7%; IQR 0–35%; CI 20–21%), because new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had higher than average demand factors (40–60%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the NEC's 40% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100% treatment of new HVAC. We propose a data-driven 50% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.

Appliances↗

Hydropower Flexibility Framework (Final Technical Report)

The Hydropower Flexibility Framework (HFF) tool focuses on providing the hydropower community with an effective means of assessing optimized hydropower plant outcomes. This tool combines both site specific characteristics, which act to constrain plant operation, and the hydrologic and grid characteristics which drive hydropower plant operation. The hydropower community faces a confluence of factors which drive the importance of developing such a capability, including an aging hydropower fleet subject to a range of modernization opportunities, a large number of hydropower plant relicensing activities which may affect operational requirements, an electrical grid with increasing levels of variable resources which must be balanced to maintain grid stability, and climate change influencing riverine hydrologic patterns outside of design characteristics. With support from the hydropower community, the project team developed the HFF tool and demonstrated the tool through a series of Use Cases. This guidance was developed as a part of the larger HFF tool User’s Manual (see Appendix B), a resource designed to inform other users and to empower community uptake of the tool. The HFF tool, hosted at https://hfftool.com/, was developed with the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). EPRI is currently exploring alternatives to support the continued maintenance and functionally of the online tool.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Annual Summary Report for the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility—FY 2024

This Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 annual summary report (ASR) documents the continued adequacy of the performance assessment (PA), the composite analysis (CA), and associated operating disposal- authorization statement (ODAS) technical-basis documents for the Remote-Handled (RH) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Disposal Facility at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Annual review of the adequacy of the PA and CA for the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste (RHLLW) Disposal Facility ensures that conclusions of the analyses remain valid in accordance with requirements of Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1, “Radioactive Waste Management.” In FY 2024, no significant operational changes or other activities occurred that would cause deviation from the assumptions in the PA and CA pertaining to disposal geometry, verification of waste characteristics, tracking disposal inventories against total limits, facility-closure design, or institutional controls. Nineteen waste canister shipments were received at the RHLLW Disposal Facility, and all nineteen waste canisters were emplaced in disposal vaults.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

Reductions in wind farm main bearing rating lives resulting from wake impingement

This paper studies the impacts of wake impingement on main bearing rating lives predicted during the wind turbine design stage. A computational tool chain was developed to explore and quantify these effects across a wind farm populated by 10 MW wind turbines. Wind field and turbine load modelling was undertaken using the Dynamiks Python package, including application of a dynamic wake meandering model. The ISO 281 basic bearing rating life formulation was subsequently applied in order to evaluate impacts from wake effects. Analyses included a two-turbine parametric analysis, followed by a full wind farm analysis undertaken for the TotalControl 32-turbine reference wind farm, including full wind rose simulations across all operational wind speeds. Site conditions were accounted for using a Weibull wind speed distribution and a range of parametric wind direction rose models. Results indicate that wind farm main bearing rating lives are negatively impacted by the effects of wake impingement, resulting in rating life reductions for the analysed wind farm of the order of 16 % on average and as much as 20 %–25 %, both for the locating main bearing. Despite these high sensitivities, it is important to note that these resultant rating lives (i.e. the predicted lives) still far exceed the standard wind turbine operational lifetimes of 20–30 years. Wake impacts were also found to be asymmetrically related to the side on which the rotor is impinged, suggesting that, for the main bearing, there may be a “better” side for wake impingement to occur. Rating life sensitivities to wind rose shape were also observed. While these findings must be interpreted with due consideration for the various methodological limitations present, they provide compelling evidence that wake effects at the wind farm level should necessarily be included when undertaking main bearing operational load modelling, rating life assessment, or other load-related analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deliverable 6.7-Final Technical Report: Development Summary and Evaluation of the Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) Software

The Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration Project was a three-year effort to address stakeholder needs for assessing solar radiation resource data quality based on existing tools for estimating radiometer measurement uncertainties and assessing post-measurement data quality. The annual research objectives for the project addressed a logical progression of effort needed to achieve the ultimate project goal of developing the Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) software. This final technical report summarizes the development process for achieving these key research objectives and addresses the outreach and code development efforts in the final year of the project to develop a new solar irradiance data uncertainty integration software package.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗