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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

In-situ X-ray and visual observation of foam morphology and behavior at the batch-melt interface during melting of simulated waste glass

We report to attain a basic understanding of the primary foam structure and behavior, which affects the heat and mass transfer and the efficiency of the glass melting process, we investigated the primary foam layer under the glass batch floating on molten glass. The primary foam affects mass transfer during batch melting, in turn affecting the melting process. The recently performed direct in-situ three-dimensional X-ray computed tomography of the batch melting in a laboratory-scale melter vessel allowed us to visualize the features of the reacting batch layer and the foam that develops at its bottom, though with an insufficient resolution of images. In this study, we obtained better temporal and spatial resolution using the two-dimensional X-ray radiography and visual observation of the structure and behavior of transient primary foam as it formed and decayed. As soon as the batch was charged onto the melt surface, foam bubbles began to evolve, grow, and coalesce, forming a primary foam layer, 5-10 mm thick, within tens of seconds. This foam layer was sustained by ongoing gas evolving reactions counterbalanced by bubble coalescence into cavities that moved sideways and escaped to the atmosphere. Eventually, the entire remaining batch turned into foam that gradually decayed at the melt surface. The decay rate agreed with literature observations of surface foam produced by secondary foaming.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Binary pseudorandom array test standard optimized for characterization of large field-of-view optical interferometers

Recently, a technique for calibrating the modulation transfer function (MTF) of a broad variety of metrology instrumentation has been demonstrated. This technique is based on test samples structured as one-dimensional binary pseudo-random (BPR) sequences and two-dimensional BPR arrays (BPRAs). The inherent power spectral density of BPR gratings (sequences) and arrays has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the MTF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range and field-of-view of an instrument. As such, the BPR samples satisfy the characteristics of a test standard: functionality, ease of specification and fabrication, reproducibility, and low sensitivity to manufacturing error. Here we discuss our recent developments directed to the optimization of the sample design, fabrication, application, and data processing procedures, suitable for thorough characterization of large aperture optical interferometers. Compared with the previous coded-aperture based design, the improved, 'highly randomized' BPRA pattern of the new test standard provides better accuracy and reliability of instrument MTF and aberration characterization, and enables operation optimization of large aperture optical interferometers. We describe the pattern generation algorithm and tests to verify the compliance to desired BPRA topography. The data acquisition and analysis procedures for different applications of the technique are also discussed.

Yashchuk, Valeriy V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial Resolution of a microCT Scanner

We have measured the spatial resolution of the 450 kV test-bed microCT scanner. We have also modeled the resolution analytically. The model and measurement show correspondence within 5%. Our measurement method was to use a thin tungsten wire to act as an impulse function. Therefore, the image is the impulse response, also called the point spread function (PSF) of the system. The Fourier transform (FT) of the impulse response is the modulation transfer function (MTF) of the system. We report the MTF here. By moving the wire at different positions in the scan field of view (FOV), we can measure MTF at different positions in the FOV. Since our imaging system is radially symmetric, we report MTF in two directions, radial and tangential as shown in Figure 1. The radial direction is along the line from isocenter to the wire, and the tangential is perpendicular to it.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Trihydrogen Formation on Gold Nanoparticles in Strong Laser Fields

The tri-hydrogen cation (H+ 3 ) plays a central role in proton-transfer chemistry, astrochemical pathways, and hydrogen plasma environments, acting as a key indicator of ultrafast proton rearrangement. Although H+ 3 formation is studied extensively in the gas phase, its surface-mediated generation and its sensitiv- ity to nanoparticle morphology remain largely unexplored. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs), which can localize surface charge and sustain strong electric fields, offer an ideal platform to probe such nonequilibrium reaction pathways. Us- ing reaction nanoscopy, we spatially map H+ 3 production on AuNPs exposed to intense femtosecond laser fields. By comparing spherical and faceted nanopar- ticles, we demonstrate how morphology modulates charge density and governs reaction efficiency. We find that sharp features on faceted particles concen- trate charge more effectively, promoting molecular fragmentation and enabling proton rearrangement and migration that enhance H+ 3 yields. This work opens new directions for exploiting strong-field interactions at metal interfaces to drive nanoscale reactivity and photocatalysis.

Dagar, Ritika [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnon spectroscopy in the electron microscope

Abstract The miniaturization of transistors is approaching its limits owing to challenges in heat management and information transfer speed 1 . To overcome these obstacles, emerging technologies such as spintronics 2 are being developed, which make use of the electron’s spin as well as its charge. Local phenomena at interfaces or structural defects will greatly influence the efficiency of spin-based devices, making the ability to study spin-wave propagation at the nanoscale and atomic scale a key challenge 3,4 . The development of high-spatial-resolution tools to investigate spin waves, also called magnons, at relevant length scales is thus essential to understand how their properties are affected by local features. Here we detect bulk THz magnons at the nanoscale using scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). By using high-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy with hybrid-pixel electron detectors, we overcome the challenges posed by weak signals to map THz magnon excitations in a thin NiO nanocrystal. Advanced inelastic electron scattering simulations corroborate our findings. These results open new avenues for detecting magnons and exploring their dispersions and their modifications arising from nanoscale structural or chemical defects. This marks a milestone in magnonics and presents exciting opportunities for the development of spintronic devices.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analytical Modeling of Metal Foam Composite Phase Change Materials (PCM) in Thermal Energy Storage Using Asymptotic Analysis

The use of phase change materials (PCMs) for thermal energy storage can release or absorb a significant amount of latent heat during the freezing or melting process, offering a higher energy storage density. One of the main drawbacks of PCMs is their low thermal conductivity, resulting in poor thermal performance. Recent research has attempted to enhance heat transfer and increase the thermal conductivity of PCMs, including the use of metal foams. However, modeling the metal foam composite PCM using conventional methods is computationally expensive. This paper proposes an asymptotic solution for a Stefan-like problem subject to a convective boundary for outward solidification in a hollow cylinder, capable of predicting the freeze-melt cycle of the metal foam composite PCM. Specifically, three temporal regimes and four spatial layers are considered in the asymptotic analysis for each phase change process. The thermal conductivity is calculated by a theoretical three-dimensional tetrakaidecahedron model, while other thermophysical properties are obtained using the method of volume averaging. The results are verified with numerical data and validated against experimental data in the literature. The presented analytical modeling framework could have the potential to be applied to other types of composite PCMs with considerably lower computational costs compared with conventional methods.

analytical model↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity and High-Performance Computational Simulations for Rapid Design Optimization of Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage

Industrial process heating (IPH) accounts for approximately 70% of US manufacturing energy use and is primarily produced by fossil fuel combustion. Approximately 1500 TWht (approximately 60%) of IPH demand is in the temperature range of 100-300. Industrial applications in this temperature range include drying, hydrothermal processing, thermal enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, bioethanol production, etc. Cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES) that increases the utilization of waste and renewable heat (solar, geothermal, etc.) could provide significant energy savings and reliable heat sources, decrease emissions, and increase US manufacturing competitiveness through reductions in fuel consumption. TES development has historically been dominated by technologies suitable for deployment with concentrating solar power (CSP). State-of-the-art thermal storage deployed commercially with power tower CSP plants uses a 60%/40% NaNO3/KNO3 molten salt and operates between temperatures of approximately 280 degrees Celsius and 570 degrees Celsius using a two-tank configuration. However, these nitrate salts are unsuitable for operation outside of this temperature range due to a high freezing point of approximately 220 degrees Celsius, and limits on high-temperature salt stability and corrosion resistance of containment alloys. Other materials being investigated for TES include those based on: (1) sensible energy storage (various molten salt compositions, inert solid particles, rocks or pebble beds, sulfur, water, concrete, graphite, etc.), (2) latent energy storage in materials that undergo solid-liquid phase change at relevant temperatures (organic materials for low-temperature applications, inorganic salts and/or metals for high-temperature applications), or (3) thermochemical energy storage (hydrides, hydroxides, carbonates, metal oxides, etc.). The application temperature and challenges pertaining to storage material and/or containment cost, energy density, long-term thermal and cyclic stability, and charge/discharge heat transfer effectiveness drive material selection for a given IPH or electricity generation application. Sulfur is a cheap commodity at $80/ton compared to $1100 - 1300/ton for conventional salts. When using a metric of storage cost per kWh, sulfur costs around 2-3 $/kWh. Previous sulfur TES development focused on high temperature (>600 degrees) concentrated solar power applications with sulfur encapsulated in pipes and flow of gaseous HTF (air) in the shell side. However, for lower-temperature IPH applications in the range of approximately 100-300 degrees Celsius Element 16 adopted a compact and scalable TES design with molten sulfur in the shell and HTF pipes submerged in the molten sulfur bath. The low-cost molten sulfur TES for dispatchable IPH has deployment potential for broad applications. The spatial and temporal evolution of the HTF and sulfur temperature is critical to the TES system performance, and thus detailed modeling can improve understanding of the performance and facilitate design improvements. Using high performance computing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) a low-cost molten sulfur thermal energy storage (TES) system for industrial process heating (IPH) applications was developed. The unique challenges in CFD modeling of sulfur TES are the sharp property changes of sulfur relevant to the working temperatures. Above 159, liquid sulfur undergoes polymerization, and the viscosity of sulfur rapidly increases by several orders of magnitude between 159 degrees Celsius and 188 degrees Celsius, followed by a decrease in viscosity beyond 188 degrees Celsius due to thermal bound dissociation. In addition, various concentrations of H2S impurities can also modify sulfur viscosity. This numerical challenge is especially relevant to transient simulation of the sulfur TES charging and discharging processes as the extreme property variations limit the applicability of traditional heat transfer correlations. Transient CFD simulations including the temperature-dependent sulfur properties and geometric complexity of the TES design were used to predict the effect of natural convection during charging and discharging on the heat transfer process, sulfur temperature uniformity, charge/discharge rates, and performance of the storage devices. The CFD model was validated with experimental results for a full charge and discharge cycle. The work will show 3D and 2D simulation comparisons aimed to facilitate rapid design iterations and a machine learning based design optimization approach.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity CFD Assessments of Flow Resistance in a 61-Pin Wire-Wrapped Assembly with Partially Blocked Channels

The examination of thermal-hydraulic behaviors in wire-wrapped rod bundles continues to be an active area of research. The sodium fast reactor, a prominent candidate in next-generation nuclear designs, utilizes a hexagonal configuration of wire-wrapped fuel pins. Here, the potential for channel blockage within this compact arrangement poses a significant safety challenge, spurring a number of recent experimental and computational investigations to evaluate its impact on flow and heat transfer. The present work aims to benchmark the high-fidelity NekRS computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver in predicting the pressure drops associated with substantial blockages, using available experimental data as a reference. A 61-pin wire-wrapped fuel assembly with two flow blockage configurations has been simulated and investigated at a range of low to moderate Reynolds numbers (487 ≤ Re ≤ 14 600). The NekRS solver demonstrates an exponential reduction of spatial discretization error with increasing polynomial order. The high level of agreement between the numerical results and measured data confirms the accuracy and consistency of the present numerical approach. This benchmark study establishes the capability of NekRS to perform reliable hydrodynamic simulations for sodium fast reactor applications and supports its use in design, licensing, and safety analyses.

CFD Benchmarking↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance of plane wavefront Fizeau interferometers in power spectral density measurements with tilted plane optics

Binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) test samples are useful devices for calibrating the instrument transfer function (ITF) of Fizeau interferometers, interferometric microscopes, and other optical and non-optical surface and wavefront metrology instruments. The intrinsic white noise character of the power spectral density (PSD) function of the BPRA pattern simplifies the extraction of the ITF from the measured PSD. The ITF determined in a dedicated calibration experiment can be used to reconstruct the surface height profile from the measured data, effectively enhancing the instrument’s spatial resolution. For a high confidence reconstruction procedure, a reliable analytical model of the IFT is desirable. Usually, the model accounts for the contributions to the ITF related the imperfections of the instrument’s optical and detector systems. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that in the case of surface height metrology with Fizeau interferometers, the PSD measurements and, therefore, the efficacy of the ITF calibration of the tool, are strongly affected by the instrument data acquisition and processing procedures, as well as by the shape of the optic under test and its alignment with respect to the interferometer.

Yashchuk, V V↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ultra-compact and efficient heat exchanger for solar desalination with unprecedented scaling resistance

The objective is to design, prototype, and test a heat exchanger technology with an efficiency improvement of more than 150% compared to state-of-the-art heat exchanger technology (UA/volume), with significantly improved fouling/scaling resistance at elevated temperatures (>120°C) when compared to existing technology where scaling is a major performance-limiting issue, as well as at lower operating-temperatures (~63-110°C). We now report our overall progress on the project. An ultra-compact, efficient heat exchanger geometry has been developed that can maximize surface-area-to-volume ratio so that proposed target (UA/volume). Advanced manufacturing techniques, such additive manufacturing, have made it possible to create complex structures cost effectively. In addition to traditional manufacturing methods, additive manufacturing has been successfully used for the development of high-performance geometries. These methods allow the ability to create custom surface textures, which are deployed to dramatically control wettability and create energy-gradient surfaces. These techniques allow fouling/scaling nucleation to be spatially controlled, such that as the fouling layer grows it will be broken and removed by flow forces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Evaluation of E3SM‐MOSAIC: Spatial Distributions and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract Nitrate aerosol plays an important role in affecting regional air quality as well as Earth's climate. However, it is not well represented or even neglected in many global climate models. In this study, we couple the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) in DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) to simulate nitrate aerosol and its radiative effects. We find that nitrate aerosol simulated by E3SMv2‐MAM4‐MOSAIC is sensitive to the treatment of gaseous HNO 3 transfer to/from interstitial particles related to accommodation coefficients of HNO 3 ( ) on dust and non‐dust particles. We compare three different treatments of HNO 3 transfer: (a) a treatment (MTC_SLOW) that uses a low in the mass transfer coefficient (MTC) calculation; (b) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment (MTC_WGT) that uses a high on non‐dust particles; and (c) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment that also splits coarse mode aerosols into the coarse dust and sea salt sub‐modes in MOSAIC (MTC_SPLC). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC increase the global annual mean (2005–2014) nitrate burden from 0.096 (MTC_SLOW) to 0.237 and 0.185 Tg N, respectively, mostly in the coarse mode. MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC also produce stronger nitrate direct radiative forcing (−0.048 and −0.051 W m −2 , respectively) and indirect forcing (−0.33 and −0.35 W m −2 , respectively) than MTC_SLOW (−0.021 and −0.24 W m −2 ). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC improve nitrate surface concentrations over remote oceans based on limited observations and vertical profiles of nitrate concentrations against aircraft measurements below 400 hPa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Contrast Transfer: Spectral SNR as a Finite-Dose Metric for STEM Phase Retrieval

The contrast transfer function (CTF) is widely used to evaluate phase retrieval methods in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), including center-of-mass imaging, parallax imaging, direct ptychography, and iterative ptychography. However, the CTF reflects only the maximum usable signal, neglecting the effects of finite electron fluence and the Poisson-limited nature of detection. As a result, it can significantly overestimate practical performance, especially in low-dose regimes. Here, we employ the spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SSNR), as a finite-dose statistical framework to evaluate the recoverable signal as a function of spatial frequency. Using numerical reconstructions of white-noise objects, we show that center-of-mass, parallax, and direct ptychography exhibit dose-independent SSNRs, with close-form analytic expressions. In contrast, iterative ptychography exhibits a surprising dose dependence: at low fluence, its SSNR converges to that of direct ptychography; at high fluence, it saturates at a value consistent with the maximum detective quantum efficiency predicted by recent quantum Fisher information bounds. The results highlight the limitations of CTF-based evaluation and motivate SSNR as a more accurate, finite-dose metric for assessing STEM phase retrieval methods.

STEM phase retrieval↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-domain thermoreflectance

Time-domain thermoreflectance (TDTR) has been instrumental in measuring the heat transfer properties of bulk and nanostructured materials over the past two decades. In this Primer, we describe the optical and thermal aspects of TDTR, with an in-depth discussion on the theory, apparatus design and implementation. We present examples that illustrate the ability of TDTR to measure thermal conductivity tensors, thermal conductance across material interfaces, and volumetric heat capacity of thin films, 2D materials and bulk materials. The ability of TDTR to spatially resolve thermal properties is useful for studying heterogeneous material systems, such as materials processed in or subjected to extreme environments. We consider current limitations of pump–probe metrologies and discuss recent advancements of TDTR, such as time-resolved magneto-optic Kerr effect (TR-MOKE), beam-offset TDTR/TR-MOKE, steady-state thermoreflectance, frequency-domain thermoreflectance and laser-flash TDTR. Lastly, we present an outlook on anticipated technological developments to further expand the ability of TDTR to measure nanoscale thermal properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-objective Optimization Paradigm for Toroidal Inductors with Spatially Tuned Permeability

Spatially tuning core permeability of an electromagnetic device enables superior performance. A permeability profile can be heuristically selected to improve the flux distribution in a device with a given geometry, but in order to fully leverage the capacity of spatial dependent permeability engineering, the geometry and the permeability should be optimized simultaneously. The work herein presented sets forth a multi-physics design optimization paradigm that includes the permeability profile tuning in the context of an inductor design. This approach enables the determination of Pareto optimal fronts consisting of a set of optimal solutions against competing objectives (e.g. mass and loss) under imposed constraints. To this end, analytical solutions of the heat transfer and electromagnetic formulations are derived for toroidal inductors. The software implemented in Matlab 2018b is available online as an attachment to this paper.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interfacing DNA nanotechnology and biomimetic photonic complexes: advances and prospects in energy and biomedicine

Abstract Self-assembled photonic systems with well-organized spatial arrangement and engineered optical properties can be used as efficient energy materials and as effective biomedical agents. The lessons learned from natural light-harvesting antennas have inspired the design and synthesis of a series of biomimetic photonic complexes, including those containing strongly coupled dye aggregates with dense molecular packing and unique spectroscopic features. These photoactive components provide excellent features that could be coupled to multiple applications including light-harvesting, energy transfer, biosensing, bioimaging, and cancer therapy. Meanwhile, nanoscale DNA assemblies have been employed as programmable and addressable templates to guide the formation of DNA-directed multi-pigment complexes, which can be used to enhance the complexity and precision of artificial photonic systems and show the potential for energy and biomedical applications. This review focuses on the interface of DNA nanotechnology and biomimetic photonic systems. We summarized the recent progress in the design, synthesis, and applications of bioinspired photonic systems, highlighted the advantages of the utilization of DNA nanostructures, and discussed the challenges and opportunities they provide. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of Local Impedance Characteristics of In-Plane PEM Electrolyzer Component Features via Segmented Cell

Segmented cells are a class of advanced diagnostic devices that enable the measurement of current distribution within the active area of an electrochemical cell, allowing for the evaluation of localized impacts from operating conditions, flow fields and component inhomogeneities. Segmented cell devices have been applied to support R&D efforts for the advancement of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell technologies and more recently proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE). Beyond current density distributions, segmented cells have been successfully deployed to collect the distribution of other relevant parameters such as high frequency resistance and electrode potentials. Very recently, a promising impedance method has been reported for water electrolysis where a one-dimensional segmented cell is coupled to a multichannel potentiostat, to enable the measurement of local cell impedances, further expanding the diagnostic capabilities of the segmented cell. In this study, we will present recent efforts to accurately measure local impedance characteristics for a PEMWE cell using a two-dimensional segmented cell device coupled with a multichannel potentiostat. The distribution of local resistances, i.e. high frequency, charge transfer, mass transport and catalyst layer, and iR-free overpotentials were successfully measured after eliminating sources of random and systematic error. We will discuss the application of this diagnostic on a cell containing a 1 cm feature simulating an ionomer skin. The results from these tests give insights if such an irregularity needs to be classified as a defect, and highlight the usefulness of coupling impedance spectroscopy with segmented cells for holistic spatial diagnostics of electrochemical devices.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plastoquinone redox status influences carboxysome integrity via a RpaA ‐ and reactive oxygen species‐dependent regulatory network

SUMMARY Carboxysomes are bacterial microcompartments that encapsulate Rubisco and are a core component of the cyanobacterial carbon concentration mechanism (CCM). While carboxysome number, size, and spatial organization vary in different environmental conditions (CO 2 , light availability, redox state, temperature, and light quality), the molecular mechanisms underlying this potentially adaptive process remain elusive. Herein, we observe that mutants of the circadian rhythm/metabolism factor, Regulator of Phycobilisome Association A (RpaA), exhibit a striking breakdown of carboxysomes under certain environmental conditions. We find that conditions leading to overreduction of the plastoquinone (PQ) pool (mixotrophic growth, high irradiance, or chemical inhibition of electron transfer from PQ to the cytochromeb 6 fcomplex) are accompanied by an elevated generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and correlate with the loss of carboxysome integrity. Carboxysome breakdown is reversed by environmental conditions or chemical inhibitors that prevent PQ overreduction and accompanying ROS generation. Taken together, our data support a novel link between the redox status of the PQ pool and carboxysome integrity. Our results have implications for the fundamental understanding of cyanobacterial energy‐balancing pathways and may indicate new research directions for understanding how the carboxysome is remodeled in response to changing environments.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗