PyLEnM: A Machine Learning Framework for Long-Term Groundwater Contamination Monitoring Strategies
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Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.
Neutral composition data obtained simultaneously from ESRO 4 and AE-C during geomagnetically disturbed conditions at different altitudes (160 and 230 km) are used to investigate the atmospheric response to geomagnetic storms and to infer information regarding the excitation mechanism. The data are compared with a theoretical model that estimates the composition effects in terms of wind induced diffusion. A parametric study was conducted bearing on the influence of energy deposition at different altitudes and with varying latitudinal extent. In one of the observed events the composition effects at 160 km are substantially smaller than at 230 km for which we inferred by comparison with the theory that the energy mainly was deposited at 150 km altitude over a wide latitude range. Another event required energy deposition at somewhat lower altitudes near 120 km with a more localized energy source. Significant variations of the turbopause level were not necessary to explain the observed variations.
Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.
Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.
Our biosphere has altered the global environment principally by influencing the chemistry of those elements most important for life, e g., C, N, S, O, P and transition metals (e.g., Fe and Mn). The coupling of oxygenic photosynthesis with the burial in sediments of photosynthetic organic matter, and with the escape of H2 to space, has increased the state of oxidation of the Oceans and atmosphere. It has also created highly reduced conditions within sedimentary rocks that have also extensively affected the geochemistry of several elements. The decline of volcanism during Earth's history reduced the flow of reduced chemical species that reacted with photosynthetically produced O2. The long-term net accumulation of photosynthetic O2 via biogeochemical processes has profoundly influenced our atmosphere and biosphere, as evidenced by the O2 levels required for algae, multicellular life and certain modem aerobic bacteria to exist. When our biosphere developed photosynthesis, it tapped into an energy resource that was much larger than the energy available from oxidation-reduction reactions associated with weathering and hydrothermal activity. Today, hydrothermal sources deliver globally (0.13-1.1)x10(exp l2) mol yr(sup -1) of reduced S, Fe(2+), Mn(2+), H2 and CH4; this is estimated to sustain at most about (0.2-2)xl0(exp 12)mol C yr(sup -1) of organic carbon production by chemautotrophic microorganisms. In contrast, global photosynthetic productivity is estimated to be 9000x10(exp 12) mol C yr(sup -1). Thus, even though global thermal fluxes were greater in the distant geologic past than today, the onset of oxygenic photosynthesis probably increased global organic productivity by some two or more orders of magnitude. This enormous productivity materialized principally because oxygenic photosynthesizers unleashed a virtually unlimited supply of reduced H that forever freed life from its sole dependence upon abiotic sources of reducing power such as hydrothermal emanations and weathering. Communities sustained by oxygenic photosynthesis apparently thrived wherever supplies of sunlight, moisture and nutrients were sufficient. Prior to the development of oxygenic photosynthesis, the net global effect of the ancient global biosphere was to facilitate chemical equilibrium between reduced species from thermal activity and weathering and more oxidized constituents in the surface environment. But even this ancient biosphere might have been globally pervasive. The global geothermal heat flow was substantially higher during Earth's first billion years, and thus reduced chemical species might have persisted in sunlit aquatic environments. Perhaps the substantial decline in thermal activity between 4000 and 3000 Ma created a driver for oxygenic photosynthesis to develop.
In the spring of 1993, the MOMS-02 (modular Optoelectronic Multispectral Scanner) camera, as part of the second German Spacelab mission aboard STS-55, successfully took digital threefold stereo images of the surface of the Earth. While the mission is experimental in nature, its primary goals are to produce high quality maps and three-dimensional digital terrain models of the Earth's surface. Considerable improvement in the quality of the terrain model can be attained if information about the position and attitude of the camera is included during the adjustment of the image data. One of the primary sources of error in the Shuttle's position is due to the significant attitude maneuvers conducted during the course of the mission. Various arcs, using actual Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRSS) Doppler data of STS-55, were processed to determine how effectively empirical force modeling could be used to solve for the radial, transverse, and normal components of the orbit perturbations caused by these routine maneuvers. Results are presented in terms of overlap-orbit differences in the three components. Comparisons of these differences, before and after the maneuvers are estimated, show that the quality of an orbit can be greatly enhanced with this technique, even if several maneuvers are present. Finally, a discussion is made of some of the difficulties encountered with this approach, and some ideas for future studies are presented.
The coordination of the modeling and field efforts for an Intensive Field Campaign (IFC) may resemble the chicken and egg dilemma. This session's theme advocates that early and proactive involvement by modeling teams can produce a scientific and operational benefit for the IFC and Experiment. This talk will provide some examples and suggestions originating from the NASA funded IFC's of the FIFE First ISLSCP (International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project) Field Experiment, Oregon Transect Ecosystem Research (OTTER) and predominately Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Experiments. In February 1994 and prior to the final selection of the BOREAS study sites, a group of funded BOREAS investigators agreed to run their models with data for five community types representing the proposed tower flux sites. All participating models were given identical initial values and boundary conditions and driven with identical climate data. The objectives of the intercomparison exercise were: 1) compare simulation results of participating terrestrial, hydrological, and atmospheric models over selected time frames; 2) learn about model behavior and sensitivity to estimated boreal site and vegetation definitions; 3) prioritize BOREAS field data collection efforts supporting modeling studies; 4) identify individual model deficiencies as early as possible. Out of these objectives evolved some important coordination and science issues for the BOREAS Experiment that can be generalized to IFCs and long term archiving of the data. Some problems are acceptable because they are endemic to maintaining fair and open competition prior to the peer review process. Others are logistical and addressable through application of planning, management, and information sciences. This investigator has identified one source of measurement and model incompatibility that is manifest in the IFC scaling approach. Although intuitively obvious, scaling problems are already more formally defined in the Geography literature. An example of the scaling problem will be demonstrated with Vegetation/Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis Project (VEMAP) and OTTER data.
To extend NUREG-1465 and high burnup fuel source term (SAND2023-01313) recommendations, representative radiological releases to containment – patterned after NUREG-1465 – have been evaluated for LWRs utilizing iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys in place of zirconium-based alloys in major core structures (cladding and fuel canisters) and high burnup fuel with enrichments of 8% and 10% for PWRs and BWRs, respectively. Representative radionuclide releases are generated for this accident tolerant fuel concept by applying non-parametric bootstrap methods to MELCOR simulation results. Accident scenarios considered in this analysis include principle contributors to historical core damage frequency estimates for a range of nuclear reactor technologies representative of the operating U.S.A. fleet of nuclear reactors.
Mechanistic assessments of radionuclide release during postulated accidents are expected to be included in advanced reactor license applications. The mechanistic source term (MST) provides an opportunity for vendors to realistically evaluate the radiological consequences of an incident, and may aid in justifying reduced emergency planning zones and plant sites. However, the development of MSTs for advanced nuclear reactors is challenging because there are numerous phenomena that can affect the transport and retention of radionuclides. As part of a trial MST assessment for a metal-fueled, pool-type sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR), led by Argonne National Laboratory, a simplified radionuclide transport code (SRT code) was developed, which includes models to estimate the quantity of fission product aerosols scrubbed in the sodium pool during postulated accident scenarios. In a pool-type SFR, when fission products are released into the coolant pool due to failure of fuel pins, most of the radionuclides are scrubbed by the coolant pool, but some have the potential to migrate to the cover gas region through entrainment within gas bubbles. The SRT code contains a model that evaluates this scrubbing behavior and calculates the fraction of fission product aerosols that reach the cover gas. Due to a lack of available validation data for sodium pool scrubbing, the U.S. Department of Energy funded an experiment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison to measure aerosol scrubbing by injecting air bubbles containing aerosol into a coolant pool. Prior to performing an experiment with liquid sodium, a water loop experiment was performed. Their experiment evaluated the effect of changing the aerosol size, aerosol density, aerosol concentration, bubble size, and pool depth on the aerosol scrubbing efficiency of the pool. In this benchmark experiment, the base tests were conducted by repeated tests of isolated bubbles. Afterwards, more prototypic tests with bubble swarms were performed to evaluate the interactions between the bubbles. The bubble swarm test was able to confirm that a larger amount of aerosol scrubbing occurred than the single bubble test. It was also confirmed that as the bubble size, aerosol density, and pool height increase, the extent of pool scrubbing also increases and does not change with the aerosol concentration. In addition, since the degree of scrubbing is the lowest at aerosol sizes between 0.01 and 1 μm, that is, the largest amount of aerosol is emitted, it was confirmed that the analysis of this size in MST is the most important. This benchmark experiment informs the direction of future sodium experiments.
Vehicles with electrified powertrains carry the promise of significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a lifecycle analysis (LCA) standpoint compared to conventional internal combustion engine (CICE) vehicles. However, trade-offs exist between different types of electrified powertrains in terms of cost, consumer acceptance, and GHG reduction efficacy for different operating conditions. The open-source tool CarGHG was developed with an aim to enable the exploration of a plethora of parametric study scenarios, including the cost of electrification technologies, different driving patterns and charging habits, and the cost and carbon intensity of electricity and fuel blends. This paper introduces the framework of CarGHG, then showcases total cost of ownership (TCO) and LCA GHG results for select models of light-duty vehicles. Another capability of CarGHG, which is the ability to estimate the performance of “virtual” vehicle models (perceived vehicle design specifications not yet on the market), is utilized to explore future scenarios of electrification and low-carbon fuel blends for Small Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), a popular light-duty vehicle segment in North America. With opportunities, but also uncertainties, in future scenarios, it is likely wise to continue pursuing multiple ways towards the reduction of LCA GHG.
Coastal wetland areas occupy a small percentage of the terrestrial environment yet are extremely productive regions which support rapid rates of below ground bacterial activity. Wetlands appear to be significant as biogenic sources of gaseous sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen. These gases are important as tracers of man's activities, and they influence atmospheric chemistry. The interactions among wetland biogeochemical processes regulate the anaerobic production of reduced gases and influence the fate of these volatiles. Therefore, spatial and temporal variations in hydrology, salinity, temperature, and speciation and growth of vegetation affect the type and magnitude of gas emissions thus hindering predictive estimates of gas flux. The research is divided into two major parts, the first is the biogeochemical characterization of a selected tidal wetland area in terms of factors likely to regulate sulfide flux; the second is a direct measurement of gaseous sulfur flux as related to changes in these biogeochemical conditions. Variant factors affecting sulfide flux include the wetlands' tidal range, seasonal salinity, and other hydrological conditions, grass species and plant growth, soil composition, and microbial activity.
Coastal wetland areas occupy a small percentage of the terrestrial environment yet are extremely productive regions which support rapid rates of belowground bacterial activity. Wetlands appear to be significant as biogenic sources of gaseous sulfur, carbon, and nitrogen. These gases are important as tracers of man's activities, and they influence atmospheric chemistry. The interactions among wetland biogeochemical processes regulate the anaerobic production of reduced gases and influence the fate of these volatiles. Therefore, spatial and temporal variations in hydrology, salinity, temperature and specification, and growth of vegetation affect the type and magnitude of gas emissions thus hindering predictive estimates of gas flux. Our research is divided into two major components, the first is the biogeochemical characterization of a selected tidal wetland area in terms of factors likely to regulate sulfide flux; the second is a direct measurement of gaseous sulfur flux as related to changes in these biogeochemical conditions. Presently, we are near completion of phase one.
A mechanical process was designed for direct extraction of molecular oxygen from the martian atmosphere based on liquefaction of the majority component, CO2, followed by separation of the lower-boiling components. The atmospheric gases are compressed from about 0.007 bar to 13 bar and then cooled to liquefy most of the CO2. The uncondensed gases are further compressed to 30 bar or more, and then cooled again to recover water as ice and to remove much of the remaining CO2. The final gaseous products consisting mostly of nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon monoxide are liquefied and purified by cryogenic distillation. The liquefied CO2 is expanded back to the low-pressure atmosphere with the addition of heat to recover a majority of the compression energy and to produce the needed mechanical work. Energy for the process is needed primarily as heat to drive the CO2-based expansion power system. When properly configured, the extraction process can be a net producer of electricity. The conceptual design, termed 'MARRS' for Mars Atmosphere Resource Recovery System, was based on the NASA/JSC Mars Reference Mission (MRM) requirement for oxygen. This mission requires both liquid oxygen for propellant, and gaseous oxygen as a component of air for the mission crew. With single redundancy both for propellant and crew air, the oxygen requirement for the MRM is estimated at 5.8 kg/hr. The process thermal power needed is about 120 kW, which can be provided at 300-500 C. A lower-cost nuclear reactor made largely of stainless steel could serve as the heat source. The chief development needed for MARRS is an efficient atmospheric compression technology, all other steps being derived from conventional chemical engineering separations. The conceptual design describes an exceptionally low-mass compression system that can be made from ultra-lightweight and deployable structures. This system adapts to the rapidly changing martian environment to supply the atmospheric resource to MARRS at constant conditions.
We analyzed seismic attenuation patterns across the North America using over 70,000,000 Lg wave amplitudes recorded by the various networks at frequencies of 0.1-32 Hz. Our inversion solved for laterally varying attenuation, site terms, moments, and apparent stress following Phillips et al., (2016). The inversion was anchored by independently constrained: corner frequencies (via coda spectral ratios) to control the attenuation-stress tradeoff and moment measurements of teleseismic (GCMT, USGS) and regional (St. Louis University and UC Berkeley) earthquakes to provided absolute scaling. The quality factor (Q) shows clear regional patterns: low values in coastal, volcanic, and tectonically active regions, and high values in stable areas like the Great Plains and major plateaus throughout North America. These 2-D Q models enable improved regional source characterization, magnitude estimation, and yield determination.
Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economies of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems. The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. It is currently in its fifth year of operation. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GES DAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.
The sizing of an electrical machine for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) can have a substantial impact on the overall sizing, cost, and rating of the device. An electrical generator is typically part of the power take-off (PTO) system, which is the mechanism by which the energy absorbed by the prime mover is transformed into useable electrical. For practically all WECs, the rate of change of actuation is predominantly determined by the wave resource (i.e., the wave height and frequency) and devices will see a sinusoidally varying velocity according to the wave conditions. The same can then be said for both directly and indirectly coupled PTOs with electrical generators. This techno-economic study investigates electrical machine scaling and associated cost implications through core machine design theory, manufacturer data, supporting literature, and the DOE sponsored Reference Model Project (RMP). The RMP was a partnered effort to develop open-source marine energy (ME) point designs as reference models (RMs) to benchmark ME technology performance and costs, methods for design and analysis of ME technologies, estimations for capital costs, operational costs, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE). The results from this study show torque is directly related to (1) the physical size of the machine required to increase the airgap sheer stresses, (2) the amount of active material, (3) the support structure, (4) bearing size and rating, and (5) offshore cable rating, all of which have a significant effect on overall system costs in terms of both CAPEX and OPEX. This paper aims to be a critical benchmark in helping determine an “optimal” nameplate rating for wave energy devices and their associated PTO. With an optimized rating and sizing process, WEC costs can be reduced, and overall performance can be improved.
The sizing of an electrical machine for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) can have a substantial impact on the overall sizing, cost, and rating of the device. An electrical generator is typically part of the power take-off (PTO) system, which is the mechanism by which the energy absorbed by the prime mover is transformed into useable electrical. For practically all WECs, the rate of change of actuation is predominantly determined by the wave resource (i.e., the wave height and frequency) and devices will see a sinusoidally varying velocity according to the wave conditions. The same can then be said for both directly and indirectly coupled PTOs with electrical generators. This techno-economic study investigates electrical machine scaling and associated cost implications through core machine design theory, manufacturer data, supporting literature, and the DOE sponsored Reference Model Project (RMP). The RMP was a partnered effort to develop open-source marine energy (ME) point designs as reference models (RMs) to benchmark ME technology performance and costs, methods for design and analysis of ME technologies, estimations for capital costs, operational costs, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE). The results from this study show torque is directly related to (1) the physical size of the machine required to increase the airgap sheer stresses, (2) the amount of active material, (3) the support structure, (4) bearing size and rating, and (5) offshore cable rating, all of which have a significant effect on overall system costs in terms of both CAPEX and OPEX. This paper aims to be a critical benchmark in helping determine an “optimal” nameplate rating for wave energy devices and their associated PTO. With an optimized rating and sizing process, WEC costs can be reduced, and overall performance can be improved.