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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Defining weather scenarios for simulation-based assessment of thermal resilience of buildings under current and future climates: A case study in Brazil

In response to increasingly severe weather conditions, optimization of building performance and investment provides an opportunity to consider co-benefits of thermal resilience during energy efficiency retrofits. This work aims to assess thermal resilience of buildings using building performance simulation to evaluate the indoor overheating risk under nine weather scenarios, considering historical (2010s), mid-term future (2050s), and long-term future (2090s) typical meteorological years, and heat wave years. Such an analysis is based on resilience profiles that combine six integrated indicators. A case study with a district of 92 buildings in Brazil was conducted, and a combination of strategies to improve thermal resilience was identified. Results reflect the necessity of planning for resilience in the context of climate change. This is because strategies recommended under current conditions might not be ideal in the future. Therefore, an adaptable design should be prioritized. Cooling energy consumption could increase by 48 % by the 2050s, while excessive overheating issues could reach 37 % of the buildings. Simple passive strategies can significantly reduce the heat stress. A comprehensive thermal resilience analysis should ultimately be accompanied by a thorough reflection on the stakeholders’ objectives, available resources, and planning horizon, as well as the risks assumed for not being resilient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weakening of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in Solar Geoengineering Scenarios

Solar geoengineering that aims to offset global warming could nonetheless alter atmospheric temperature gradients and humidity and thus affect the extratropical storm tracks. Here, we first analyze climate model simulations from experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which a reduction in incoming solar radiation balances a quadrupling of CO 2 . The Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm track weakens by a comparable amount in G1 as it does for increased CO2 only. The Southern Hemisphere storm track also weakens in G1, in contrast to a strengthening and poleward shift for increased CO 2 . Using mean available potential energy, we show that the changes in zonal-mean temperature and humidity are sufficient to explain the different responses of storm-track intensity. We also demonstrate similar weakening in a more complex geoengineering scenario. Here, our results offer insight into how geoengineering affects storm tracks, highlighting the potential for geoengineering to induce novel climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Controls on Stable Methane Isotope Values in Northern Peatlands and Potential Shifts in Values Under Permafrost Thaw Scenarios

Abstract Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH 4 ), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH 4 production in peatlands will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ 13 C‐CH 4 ) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ 13 C‐CH 4 is used in top‐down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH 4 production pathways and associated δ 13 C‐CH 4 values is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ 13 C‐CH 4 values from high‐latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH 4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal‐Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ 13 C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (−61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost‐free bogs (−74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (−81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH 4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH (r 2 = 0.50,p < 0.001). Emitted δ 13 C‐CH 4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ 13 C‐CH 4 . We calculated a mixed atmospheric δ 13 C‐CH 4 value for northern peatlands of −65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this value is more sensitive to landscape drying than wetting under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ 13 C‐CH 4 values are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Ecosystem Model for Arctic Phytoplankton Phenology From Ice‐Covered to Open‐Water Periods: Implications for Future Sea Ice Retreat Scenarios

Abstract To predict ecosystem change in the Arctic Ocean, understanding Arctic phytoplankton phenology is essential. We develop a marine ecosystem model focusing on phytoplankton dynamics and the competition for multiple resources based on knowledge from in situ data obtained in the Chukchi Sea. The model is designed to include the unique ecological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model successfully simulating the current paradigm for Arctic phytoplankton phenology, including both under‐ice blooms and succession of phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity experiments show that the dominance of diatoms can be sustained by lateral transport of a high‐silicate water mass (Pacific Winter Water). Experiments for future scenarios show that sea ice retreat drives a decrease in large diatoms and an increase in the other relatively small non‐diatom groups. These results suggest that dominant phytoplankton groups can be shifted from diatoms to non‐diatoms under ongoing Arctic Ocean sea ice retreat.

Choi, Jang‐Geun↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cascade of transitions in twisted and non-twisted graphene layers within the van Hove scenario

Abstract Motivated by measurements of compressibility and STM spectra in twisted bilayer graphene, we analyze the pattern of symmetry breaking for itinerant fermions near a van Hove singularity. Making use of an approximate SU(4) symmetry of the Landau functional, we show that the structure of the spin/isospin order parameter changes with increasing filling via a cascade of transitions. We compute the feedback from different spin/isospin orders on fermions and argue that each order splits the initially 4-fold degenerate van Hove peak in a particular fashion, consistent with the STM data and compressibility measurements, providing a unified interpretation of the cascade of transitions in twisted bilayer graphene. Our results follow from a generic analysis of an SU(4)-symmetric Landau functional and are valid beyond a specific underlying fermionic model. We argue that an analogous van Hove scenario explains the cascade of phase transitions in non-twisted Bernal bilayer and rhombohedral trilayer graphene.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthetic data generation for machine learning model training for energy theft scenarios using cosimulation

Abstract Technical and non‐technical losses in distribution circuits result in significant economic costs to power utilities. One type of non‐technical loss is energy theft by various means including illegal tapping of feeders, bypassing the meter, and billing fraud. These losses are usually hard to detect, and can remain undetected for long periods of time. Machine learning models have been proven effective in detecting these conditions, but rely on the availability of large, good‐quality training data sets. The problem is exacerbated by the imbalanced nature of data related to these conditions—energy theft, though costly, is very rare. The available data sets generally have very few samples of theft with most of the data pertaining to normal operation. Such data sets are generally not suitable to train machine learning models. In this paper, an overview of energy theft detection techniques, the challenges with their data needs, and the limitations of current techniques to bridge such data limitations is presented. A co‐simulation framework is proposed to generate reliable training data for machine learning algorithms for theft detection. An example scenario is presented and a machine learning model is built to detect certain kinds of energy theft.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring scenarios for enhanced fuel compression and performance on the National Ignition Facility with machine-learning-aided design techniques

Recent fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have achieved ignition, producing multi-MJ fusion yields for input laser energies of roughly 2 MJ [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 065102 (2024)]. Building on the success of the target designs that have achieved ignition, we explore new implosion scenarios predicted to generate significantly more compression of the dense DT ice layer and correspondingly higher yields while preserving many of the key physics characteristics of present-day ignition designs. Our main result is a novel 3-shock implosion scheme that effectively minimizes the shock-induced entropy in the dense, accelerating DT shell and maximizes the resulting fuel compression subject to a fixed leading shock strength consistent with present-day ignition experiments, which is necessary to melt the crystalline high-density carbon ablator. Compared to the first NIF experiment to fulfill Lawson's ignition criterion, shot N210808 [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)], our design exhibits a 40% increase in simulated peak areal density (ρR) and a 5× increase in 1D fusion yield using a 4% lighter ablator and identical DT payloads. We also present a complete integrated 2D hohlraum design and laser pulse specifications capable of generating the desired 3-shock drive and maintaining control of the low-mode capsule implosion symmetry, where the increase in simulated 2D yield relative to N210808 is > 10×. This new implosion regime was discovered with help from a machine-learning-enabled capsule design optimization framework. We outline the workflow this automated tool uses to identify improved design candidates by running several rounds of capsule simulations, constructing a surrogate model mapping input variations to key physics output quantities, and querying the resulting statistical model to propose adjustments to the x-ray drive and capsule to reach a set of physics objectives prescribed by the designer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chaos as the cause of randomness in tearing mode onset times in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario plasmas

The first evidence of widespread chaotic plasma dynamics relevant to the onset of disruptive tearing modes is found in DIII-D tokamak discharges. This evidence is obtained by calculating positive maximal Lyapunov exponents from Mirnov signals using the Rosenstein algorithm, implying the chaotic growth and/or rotation of magnetohydrodynamic modes in DIII-D [Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)] plasmas. Such chaotic dynamics offer an explanation for the random tearing mode onset times previously observed in ITER baseline scenario discharges. Further, the Lyapunov timescales associated with this chaos could inhibit reliable prediction of tearing mode onset beyond the angular momentum confinement timescale; this constraint should inform the design of plasma control systems on ITER.

Chaotic dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCALE Shielding Calculations for Advanced Reactor Accident Scenarios

The study results presented in this paper demonstrate the capabilities of the SCALE computer code for non–light water reactor (non-LWR) radiation source term and shielding calculations in support of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-LWR fuel cycle demonstration project. Representative non-LWR types, including the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), the molten salt reactor (MSR), and the heat pipe microreactor (HPMR), were analyzed to evaluate dose rates associated with postulated accident scenarios (SFR and MSR), reactor operation (MSR and HPMR), and fuel self-protecting characteristics (HPMR). New features were implemented in SCALE depletion codes to better simulate MSR operation.

MSR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiphysics Modeling of Impurity Transport for FNSF Startup Scenario with ERO2.0

This paper focuses on performing a multiphysics study using the ERO2.0 and UEDGE codes for two standard double null configurations for the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility: (a) 100% recycling and (b) 99% recycling. Results show that the main contributor to tungsten erosion along the divertor plates is impurities from the midplane waveguides. In addition, the standard high-recycling case (100% recycling) shows a significantly higher buildup of impurities along the divertor tiles during the startup phase, which can lead to a higher increase of energy loss in the plasma during steady-state operation. Last, for high recycling, anomalous diffusion can dominate over parallel field diffusion. The work performed in this study can be iteratively applied to a full operation scenario with additional physics such as those from neutrals, wall shaping, and additional external fields.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗