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At least 433 records · Page 24

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Fisel, Brandon J.↗

Longitudinal, Lateral, Vertical, and Temporal Thermal Heterogeneity in a Large Impounded River: Implications for Cold-Water Refuges

Dam operations can affect mixing of the water column, thereby influencing thermal heterogeneity spatially and temporally. This occurs by restricting or eliminating connectivity in longitudinal, lateral, vertical, and temporal dimensions. We examined thermal heterogeneity across space and time and identified potential cold-water refuges for salmonids in a large impounded river in inland northwestern USA. To describe these patterns, we used thermal infrared (TIR) imagery, in situ thermographs, and high-resolution, 3-D hydraulic mapping. We explained the median water temperature and probability of occurrence of cool-water areas using generalized additive models (GAMs) at reach and subcatchment scales, and we evaluated potential cold-water refuge occurrence in relation to these patterns. We demonstrated that (1) lateral contributions from tributaries dominated thermal heterogeneity, (2) thermal variability at confluences was approximately an order of magnitude greater than of the main stem, (3) potential cold-water refuges were mostly found at confluences, and (4) the probability of occurrence of cool areas and median water temperature were associated with channel geomorphology and distance from dam. These findings highlight the importance of using multiple approaches to describe thermal heterogeneity in large, impounded rivers and the need to incorporate these types of rivers in the understanding of thermal riverscapes because of their limited representation in the literature.

Mejia, Francine H.↗

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representing lateral groundwater flow from land to river in Earth system models

Lateral groundwater flow (LGF) is an important hydrologic process in controlling water table dynamics. Due to the relatively coarse spatial resolutions of land surface models, the representation of this process is often overlooked or overly simplified. In this study, we developed a hillslope-based lateral groundwater flow model. Specifically, we first developed a hillslope definition model based on an existing watershed delineation model to represent the subgrid spatial variability in topography. Building upon this hillslope definition, we then developed a physical-based lateral groundwater flow using Darcy’s equation. This model explicitly considers the relationships between the groundwater table along the hillslope and the river water table levels. We coupled this intra-grid model to the land component (E3SM Land Model: ELM) and river component (MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Transport: MOSART) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We tested both the hillslope definition model and the lateral groundwater flow model and performed sensitivity experiments using different configurations. Simulations for a single grid cell at 0.5°×0.5° within the Amazon basin show that the definition of hillslope is the key to modeling lateral flow processes and the runoff partition between surface and subsurface can be dramatically changed using the hillslope approach. Although our method provides a pathway to improve the lateral flow process, future improvements are needed to better capture the subgrid structure to account for the spatial variability in hillslopes within the simulated grid of land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

Thermal study of the Missouri River in North Dakota using infrared imagery

Studies of infrared imagery obtained from aircraft at 305- to 1,524-meter altitudes indicate the feasibility of monitoring thermal changes attributable to the operation of thermal electric plants and storage reservoirs, as well as natural phenomena such as tributary inflow and ground water seeps in large rivers. No identifiable sources of ground water inflow below the surface of the river could be found in the imagery. The thermal patterns from the generating plants and the major tributary inflow are readily apparent in imagery obtained from an altitude of 305 meters. Portions of the tape-recorded imagery were processed in a color-coded quantization to enhance the displays and to attach quantitative significance to the data. The study indicates a marked decrease in water temperature in the Missouri River prior to early fall and a moderate increase in temperature in late fall because of the Lake Sakakawea impoundment.

Crosby, O. A.↗

Water resources planning for rivers draining into Mobile Bay. Part 2: Non-conservative species transport models

Total coliform group bacteria were selected to expand the mathematical modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic and salinity models to understand their relationship to commercial fishing ventures within bay waters and to gain a clear insight into the effect that rivers draining into the bay have on water quality conditions. Parametric observations revealed that temperature factors and river flow rate have a pronounced effect on the concentration profiles, while wind conditions showed only slight effects. An examination of coliform group loading concentrations at constant river flow rates and temperature shows these loading changes have an appreciable influence on total coliform distribution within Mobile Bay.

April, G. C.↗

Remote sensing study of Maumee River effects of Lake Erie

The effects of river inputs on boundary waters were studied in partial support of the task to assess the significance of river inputs into receiving waters, dispersion of pollutants, and water quality. The effects of the spring runoff of the Maumee River on Lake Erie were assessed by a combination of ship survey and remote sensing techniques. The imagery obtained from a multispectral scanner of the west basin of Lake Erie is discussed: this clearly showed the distribution of particulates throughout the covered area. This synoptic view, in addition to its qualitative value, is very useful in selecting sampling stations for shipboard in situ measurements, and for extrapolating these quantitative results throughout the area of interest.

Svehla, R.↗

Quantitative analysis of aircraft multispectral-scanner data and mapping of water-quality parameters in the James River in Virginia

Statistical analysis techniques were applied to develop quantitative relationships between in situ river measurements and the remotely sensed data that were obtained over the James River in Virginia on 28 May 1974. The remotely sensed data were collected with a multispectral scanner and with photographs taken from an aircraft platform. Concentration differences among water quality parameters such as suspended sediment, chlorophyll a, and nutrients indicated significant spectral variations. Calibrated equations from the multiple regression analysis were used to develop maps that indicated the quantitative distributions of water quality parameters and the dispersion characteristics of a pollutant plume entering the turbid river system. Results from further analyses that use only three preselected multispectral scanner bands of data indicated that regression coefficients and standard errors of estimate were not appreciably degraded compared with results from the 10-band analysis.

Johnson, R. W.↗

Passive microwave detection of river-plume fronts in the German Bight

The NASA P-3 aircraft with the L- and S-band radiometer system on board participated in the MARSEN experiments carried out between August 30 and September 23, 1979. Measurements of surface temperature and salinity were concentrated on freshwater outflows of the Rivers Weser and Elbe in the German Bight. Three missions were carried out, on September 19, 22, and 23. The values of salinity are plotted as a function of geographic position, and contour maps of the salinity distribution are generated from the value plots. It is noted that on September 22, during a noon flood-tide, two river-plume salinity fronts were detected when a body of water with higher salinity existed in front of the Weser delta near Bremerhaven generating with the river outflow of lower saline waters a front of delta-S equals 5 per thousand. Another pocket of lower saline waters was found in front of the Elbe delta at Cuxhaven, which in turn set up a strong front of delta-S equals 6 per thousand. The morning low tide of September 23 did not exhibit this extreme condition.

Blume, H.-J. C.↗

Influence of the Yukon River on the Bering Sea

The purpose is to use satellite data to study relationships between discharge of the Yukon River to currents and biologic productivity in the northern Bering Sea. Amended specific objectives are: to develop thermal, sediment and chlorophyll surface maps using thematic mapping (TM) data of the discharge of the Yukon River and the Alaska Coastal Current during the ice free season; to develop a historical model of the distribution of the Yukon River discharge and the Alaska Coastal Current using LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MMS) and NOAA satellite imagery; and to use high resolution TM data to define the surface dynamics of the front between the Alaska Coastal Current and the Bering Shelf/Anadyr Current. LANDSAT MSS and TM, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data were recorded during the 1985 ice-free period. The satellite data coincided with shipboard measurements acquired by Inner Self Transfer and Recycling scientists. Circumstances were such, that on July 5 and July 22, all three sensors recorded data that has been registered to a common map projection and map base, then contrast stretched, color composited, and density sliced.

Dean, K.↗

Influence of the Yukon River on the Bering Sea

Physical and biological oceanography of the northern Bering Sea including the influence of the Yukon River were studied. Satellite data acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and the Thematic Mapper (TM) sensor were used to detect sea surface temperatures and suspended sediments. Shipboard measurements of temperature, salinity and nutrients were acquired through the Inner Shelf Transfer and Recycling (ISHTAR) project and were compared to digitally enhanced and historical satellite images. The satellite data reveal north-flowing, warm water along the Alaskan coast that is highly turbid with complex patterns of surface circulation near the Yukon River delta. To the west near the Soviet Union, cold water, derived from an upwelling, mixes with shelf water and also flows north. The cold and warm water coincide with the Anadyr, Bering Shelf and Alaskan coastal water masses. Generally, warm Alaskan coastal water forms near the coast and extends offshore as the summer progresses. Turbid water discharged by the Yukon River progresses in the same fashion but extends northward across the entrance to Norton Sound, attaining its maximum surface extent in October. The Anadyr water flows northward and around St. Lawrence Island, but its extent is highly variable and depends upon mesoscale pressure fields in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea.

Dean, Kenneson G.↗

River Valley pluton, Ontario - A late-Archean/early-Proterozoic anorthositic intrusion in the Grenville Province

This paper presents Nd, Sr, and Pb isotopic data indicating a late-Archean/early-Proterozoic age for the River Valley anorthositic pluton of the southwestern Grenville Province of Sudbury, Ontario. Pb-Pb isotopic data on 10 whole-rock samples ranging in composition from anorthosite to gabbro yield an age of 2560 + or - 155 Ma. The River Valley pluton is thus the oldest anorthositic intrusive yet recognized within the Grenville Province. The Sm-Nd isotopic system records an age of 2377 + or - 68 Ma. High Pb-208/Pb-204 of deformed samples relative to igneous-textured rocks implies Th introduction and/or U loss during metamorphism in the River Valley area. Rb-Sr data from igneous-textured and deformed samples and from mineral separates give an age of 2185 + or - 105 Ma, indicating substantial disturbance of the Rb-Sr isotopic system.

Ashwal, Lewis D.↗

C-13/C-12 of atmospheric CO2 in the Amazon basin - Forest and river sources

Results are presented of measurements of the CO2 concentrations and C-13/C-12 ratios in CO2 in air samples collected from within the Amazonian rain forest and over the Amazon river between 1982 and 1987. Results indicate the presence of a diurnal cycle in the CO2 concentration and the C-13/C-12 ratio. It was found that the CO2 input to air in the forest was derived from the soil respiration, and the CO2 input to air over the Amazon river was derived from the degassing of CO2 from the river. It was also found that plants growing at heights lower than 7 m assimilate soil-derived CO2 with a low C-13/C-12 ratio.

Quay, Paul↗

Variability of the Columbia River plume observed in visible and infrared satellite imagery

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) data were used to derive images of sea surface temperature and phytoplankton pigment images. Observations were made in coastal waters off the Northwestern United States from 1979-1985 and showed that orientation, shape, intensity and relative temperature of the plume varied in response to coastal winds and wind-driven surface currents. CZCS images illustrating changes in the river plume during spring transition in 1982, changes due to reversal of the summer prevailing winds, during a strong summer upwelling, and during peak river flow in the early summer are presented and analyzed. It is noted that remote sensing of the Columbia River plume provides information for oceanographic studies and fisheries management in the region.

Fiedler, Paul C.↗

Seasonal dynamics in methane emissions from the Amazon River floodplain to the troposphere

Methane fluxes to the troposphere from the three principal habitats of the floodplain of the Amazon River main stem (open waters, emergent macrophyte beds, and flooded forests) were determined along a 1700-km reach of the river during the low-water period of the annual flood cycle (November-December 1988). Overall, emissions averaged 68 mg CH4/sq m per day and were significantly lower than similar emissions determined previously for the high-water period, 184 mg CH4/sq m per day (July-August 1986). This difference was due to significantly lower emissions from floating macrophyte environments. Low-water emissions from open waters and flooded forest areas were not significantly different than at high water. A monthly time series of methane emission from eight lakes located in the central Amazon basis showed similar results. The data were used to calculate a seasonally weighted annual emission to the troposphere from the Amazon River main stem floodplain of 5.1 Tg/yr, which indicates the importance of the area in global atmospheric chemistry.

Devol, Allan H.↗

Interaction of the sea breeze with a river breeze in an area of complex coastal heating

The interaction of the sea-breeze circulation with a river-breeze circulation in an area of complex coastal heating (east coast of Florida) was studied using a 3D finite-element mesoscale model. The model simulations are compared with temperature and wind fields observed on a typical fall day during the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment. The results from numerical experiments designed to isolate the effect of the river breeze indicate that the convergence in the sea-breeze front is suppressed when it passes over the cooler surface of the rivers.

Zhong, Shiyuan↗

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Smith, George F.↗