Results for “resource data” — Page 24

DOE OSTI2025

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1992

MODIS algorithm development and data visualization using ACTS

The study of the Earth as a system will require the merger of scientific and data resources on a much larger scale than has been done in the past. New methods of scientific research, particularly in the development of geographically dispersed, interdisciplinary teams, are necessary if we are to understand the complexity of the Earth system. Even the planned satellite missions themselves, such as the Earth Observing System, will require much more interaction between researchers and engineers if they are to produce scientifically useful data products. A key component in these activities is the development of flexible, high bandwidth data networks that can be used to move large amounts of data as well as allow researchers to communicate in new ways, such as through video. The capabilities of the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) will allow the development of such networks. The Pathfinder global AVHRR data set and the upcoming SeaWiFS Earthprobe mission would serve as a testbed in which to develop the tools to share data and information among geographically distributed researchers. Our goal is to develop a 'Distributed Research Environment' that can be used as a model for scientific collaboration in the EOS era. The challenge is to unite the advances in telecommunications with the parallel advances in computing and networking.

Abbott, Mark R.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Demand-Side Grid Model (dsgrid) Data from the Electrification Futures Project (EFS)

This data set contains the full-resolution and state-level data described in the linked technical report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71492.pdf). It can be accessed with the NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api, available on GitHub at https://github.com/dsgrid/dsgrid-legacy-efs-api and through PyPI (pip install NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api). The data format is HDF5. The API is written in Python. This initial dsgrid data set, whose description was originally published in 2018, covers electricity demand in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the historical year of 2012. It is a proof-of-concept demonstrating the feasibility of reconciling bottom-up demand modeling results with top-down information about electricity demand to create a more detailed description than is possible with either type of data source on its own. The result is demand data that is more highly resolved along geographic, temporal, sectoral, and end-use dimensions as may be helpful for conducting electricity sector-wide "what-if" analysis of, e.g., energy efficiency, electrification, and/or demand flexibility. Although we conducted bottom-up versus top-down validation, the final residuals were significant, especially at higher geographic and temporal resolution. Please see the Executive Summary and/or Section 3 of the report to obtain an understanding of the data set limitations before deciding whether these data are suitable for any particular use case. New dsgrid datasets are under development. Please visit https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dsgrid.html for the latest information which is also linked in the data resources.

analysis↗

DOE OSTI2018

American Gut: an Open Platform for Citizen Science Microbiome Research

Although much work has linked the human microbiome to specific phenotypes and lifestyle variables, data from different projects have been challenging to integrate and the extent of microbial and molecular diversity in human stool remains unknown. Using standardized protocols from the Earth Microbiome Project and sample contributions from over 10,000 citizen-scientists, together with an open research network, we compare human microbiome specimens primarily from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia to one another and to environmental samples. Our results show an unexpected range of beta-diversity in human stool microbiomes compared to environmental samples; demonstrate the utility of procedures for removing the effects of overgrowth during room-temperature shipping for revealing phenotype correlations; uncover new molecules and kinds of molecular communities in the human stool metabolome; and examine emergent associations among the microbiome, metabolome, and the diversity of plants that are consumed (rather than relying on reductive categorical variables such as veganism, which have little or no explanatory power). We also demonstrate the utility of the living data resource and cross-cohort comparison to confirm existing associations between the microbiome and psychiatric illness and to reveal the extent of microbiome change within one individual during surgery, providing a paradigm for open microbiome research and education. We show that a citizen science, self-selected cohort shipping samples through the mail at room temperature recaptures many known microbiome results from clinically collected cohorts and reveals new ones. Of particular interest is integrating n = 1 study data with the population data, showing that the extent of microbiome change after events such as surgery can exceed differences between distinct environmental biomes, and the effect of diverse plants in the diet, which we confirm with untargeted metabolomics on hundreds of samples.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying Potential Candidates for Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) in Bangladesh

Bangladesh faces several hurdles to achieving its renewable energy objectives, such as land availability and transmission congestion. Renewable Energy Zones (REZ), which are geographic areas with high-quality utility-scale renewable resources, suitable land topography, and commercial interest, can help address these challenges and support long-term generation and transmission planning. This study focuses on solar PV (fixed-tilt) and onshore wind, leveraging recently developed high temporal and spatial resolution resource data. In the moderate land exclusion scenario, large "study areas" are identified in Bangladesh with capacity factors in the top 25% for the entire country - 5 for wind and 8 for solar. Within these study areas, 19 candidates for REZ are identified based on the overlap between these study areas and upazilas (i.e., administrative subdivisions) containing economic development zones. Four of the identified candidate zones are opportunities for priority development, given the combination of strong wind and solar resources and the presence of economic zones. Furthermore, the geographic diversity of wind and solar resources in Bangladesh could help increase grid resilience by not concentrating all renewable energy development in the same region. Finally, pairing REZ with economic zones can bolster economic development, take advantage of large electricity demand, and leverage existing infrastructure investments.

Bangladesh↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

This data catalog contains information on low temperature geothermal play types. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) supports the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project, conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This project is part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multifaceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling technologies into national decarbonization strategies and community energy plans. There is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource data sets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies. This project aims to reduce exploration risk of low temperature geothermal systems by collecting baseline datasets that can be used for Play Fairway Analysis methodologies. This data catalog contains links to publicly available datasets from different sources that can be relevant for the low temperature geothermal systems. This submission contains data catalogs for Alaska, Hawaii, and the Conterminous United States, as well as a technical report on the methods used to classify and asses the geothermal play types.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

DIRAQ: scalable in situ data- and resource-aware indexing for optimized query performance

Scientific data analytics in high-performance computing environments has been evolving along with the advancement of computing capabilities. With the onset of exascale computing, the increasing gap between compute performance and I/O bandwidth has rendered the traditional post-simulation processing a tedious process. Despite the challenges due to increased data production, there exists an opportunity to benefit from "cheap" computing power to perform query-driven exploration and visualization during simulation time. To accelerate such analyses, applications traditionally augment, post-simulation, raw data with large indexes, which are then repeatedly utilized for data exploration. However, the generation of current state-of-the-art indexes involves a compute- and memory-intensive processing, thus rendering them inapplicable in an in situ context. In this paper we propose DIRAQ, a parallel in situ, in network data encoding and reorganization technique that enables the transformation of simulation output into a query-efficient form, with negligible runtime overhead to the simulation run. DIRAQ's effective core-local, precision-based encoding approach incorporates an embedded compressed index that is 3---6 $$\times $$ ? smaller than current state-of-the-art indexing schemes. Its data-aware index adjustmentation improves performance of group-level index layout creation by up to 35 % and reduces the size of the generated index by up to 27 %. Moreover, DIRAQ's in network index merging strategy enables the creation of aggregated indexes that speed up spatial-context query responses by up to $$10\times $$ 10 ? versus alternative techniques. DIRAQ's topology-, data-, and memory-aware aggregation strategy results in efficient I/O and yields overall end-to-end encoding and I/O time that is less than that required to write the raw data with MPI collective I/O.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2012

The RCSB Protein Data Bank: new resources for research and education

The Research Collaboratory for Structural Bioinformatics Protein Data Bank (RCSB PDB) develops tools and resources that provide a structural view of biology for research and education. The RCSB PDB web site (http://www.rcsb.org) uses the curated 3D macromolecular data contained in the PDB archive to offer unique methods to access, report and visualize data. Recent activities have focused on improving methods for simple and complex searches of PDB data, creating specialized access to chemical component data and providing domain-based structural alignments. New educational resources are offered at the PDB-101 educational view of the main web site such as Author Profiles that display a researcher’s PDB entries in a timeline. To promote different kinds of access to the RCSB PDB, Web Services have been expanded, and an RCSB PDB Mobile application for the iPhone/iPad has been released. These improvements enable new opportunities for analyzing and understanding structure data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for report: Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada

In California and Nevada, geothermal projects are subject to non-technical barriers, which may create development delays leading to higher project costs and risks and decreased competitiveness with other electricity generation technologies. These non-technical barriers may include federal and state permits, authorizations, environmental reviews, and other regulatory requirements that are applicable throughout different phases of geothermal project development. The 2022 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) report, "Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada" presents findings of a study on non-technical barriers that may influence geothermal project development. The set of data resources relied upon for the report includes: 1) interviews conducted with relevant geothermal stakeholders including regulators and project developers, 2) federal and state environmental review documents developed for specific projects, 3) a techno-economic analysis conducted using the NREL Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) framework, and 4) an analysis of the impacts of site-specific land access and permitting considerations on project development readiness conducted using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) Socioeconomic Assessment Tool (SEAT).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

MHK Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Guidance and Techno-Economic Analysis Materials

Useful information and tools for calculating the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and MHK Cost Breakdown Structure. Includes a structure for calculating the capital expenditures and operating costs of a marine energy technology or device, reference resource data for both wave and tidal, and LCOE reporting guidance. These tools are meant to be used to help calculate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for an MHK or MRE technology or device.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2006

LDCM Grid Prototype (LGP)

The LGP successfully demonstrated that grid technology could be used to create a collaboration among research scientists, their science development machines, and distributed data to create a science production system in a nationally distributed environment. Grid technology provides a low cost and effective method of enabling production of science products by the science community. To demonstrate this, the LGP partnered with NASA GSFC scientists and used their existing science algorithms to generate virtual Landsat-like data products using distributed data resources. LGP created 48 output composite scenes with 4 input scenes each for a total of 192 scienes processed in parallel. The demonstration took 12 hours, which beat the requirement by almost 50 percent, well within the LDCM requirement to process 250 scenes per day. The LGP project also showed the successful use of workflow tools to automate the processing. Investing in this technology has led to funding for a ROSES ACCESS proposal. The proposal intends to enable an expert science user to produce products from a number of similar distributed instrument data sets using the Land Cover Change Community-based Processing and Analysis System (LC-ComPS) Toolbox. The LC-ComPS Toolbox is a collection of science algorithms that enable the generation of data with ground resolution on the order of Landsat-class instruments.

Weinstein, Beth↗

DOE OSTI2020

Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

The explosion of new ideas for distributed energy resources and advanced distribution grid algorithms faces a critical challenge: how can one effectively develop and evaluate these breakthrough technologies without an adequate set of power systems network, load, and resource data to test against? Today's open test systems, particularly for distribution systems, are tiny and incomplete; and though with enough effort, obtaining utility data under NDA can overcome scale challenges, the results can't be openly shared, preventing fair comparison. The Smart-DS project-led by NREL in partnership with MIT, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, CYME, and EDD-is working to overcome this gap by generating multiple large-scale, open, synthetic, distribution systems that are realistic but not real. These datasets go beyond a single medium voltage feeder (~1000 customers) to cover entire metropolitan areas and their surrounds with up to hundreds of feeders and millions of customers, complete with low voltage customer connections and high voltage sub-transmission. This scale allows adequate testing and analysis of not just local controls and advanced DERs, but also multiple substation interactions, optimized switching, full-scale distribution-OPF, and more. To accompany these datasets, the project is also building a rich set of scenario generation tools that can be used for distribution and transmission systems alike. This includes automated, spatially aware access to world-class, high-resolution solar, wind, and weather data: forward looking generation mixes: and highly configurable DER, load, climate, outage, control-scheme, and other scenarios. We will also highlight DiTTo, an exciting open-source, multi-way distribution dataset transformation tool for many-to-many format translation with scenario, merge/split, and many other manipulation capabilities.

DERs↗

DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Index Assessment for the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative

We report on 250 PV systems throughout the United States, comprising 157 MWdc of system capacity and more than 10,000 monthly performance index (PI) values. Loss factors were isolated including first-year start-up issues, snowfall, soiling and inverter downtime. Inverter availability was found to contribute significant system energy loss during the first six months of operation, with an average of 8% loss occurring during this period, and 2.3% on average thereafter. Other start-up issues beyond inverter downtime, such as partial string outage, contributed additional underperformance in the first year of operation across the fleet. Winter performance was also found to be below summer performance on average, likely due to snowfall. A relationship was found between monthly snowfall accumulation in centimeters and monthly under-performance, indicating a 6%-40% loss in months with measured snowfall, depending on climate. After correcting for availability, snow and startup loss, over 90% of systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation based on satellite resource data and PVWatts production estimates.

loss factors↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Overview and Update

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. These ambitious goals will require significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities. These constraints make it absolutely necessary to develop transformative solutions using new technologies. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses the gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system. For long-duration, deep space missions, computational and data resources will play an important role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance where the crew will need to be more self-reliant. The aim of the CDS project is to develop and provide recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as a software-based tool that will augment a crewmembers’ knowledge, skills and abilities to assist in decision-making and crew health and performance (CHP) management thus increasing CHP systems capabilities. The human interface will be context aware and lessen the cognitive load to assimilate and use information as well as combine large disparate data sets in such a manner that provides the crew with actionable insight to decisions related to crew medical, health and performance management. Crew autonomy will be provided through a CDS that presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. The CDS project addresses the need for crew members to operate independently during long duration space exploration missions that require medical Levels of Care (LoC) V, the highest level specified by NASA-STD-3001 and described in more detail by the ExMC interpretation of LoC document (NASA/TM-2017-219290), where significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care necessitate increasing crew autonomy in decision making and task performance. The CDS project will develop and test a series of iterative and increasingly more complex system prototypes. These annual demonstrations of the data system integration with the crew health and performance domain will inform exploration medical system requirements for an on-board Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) through a series of use cases that guide CDS prototype functionality. CDS concepts are based on ExMC Concept of Operations documents (presented separately) and will highlight architecture extensibility to other more complex analyses and tests using core crew health and performance integrated data management, processing and visualization capabilities. This approach also establishes how externally developed analyses and approaches could be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be commercially and/or globally developed. The CDS project will build upon the concept of an integrated data management approach based on the Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project to more fully address challenges associated with in-flight and habitat medical, health and performance care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities required for medical LoC V. These requirements will be derived through systems engineering approaches and software prototype developments over the course of the multi-year CDS project to address crew health and performance decision-making and task performance, often autonomously executed by the crew, in a manner that is consistent with the appropriate medical level of care for the mission. This presentation will provide an overview of the vision for the CDS project and highlight the initial accomplishments in project planning, implementation and requirements identification in fiscal year 2020.

clinical decision support system↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗