Toward Reaching a Consensus on the Concept of Power System Resilience: Definitions, Assessment Frameworks, and Metrics
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Human-Centric Contingency Analysis Metrics for Evaluating Operator Performance and Trust
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Modeling Framework for Data Center
This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Evaluating Supply Prioritization Strategies for Risk-Informed Decision Making in an Arbitrary Gas Network
Supply disruptions and infrastructure failures in natural gas networks present critical challenges to energy reliability and risk-informed planning. This study evaluates two supply prioritization strategies, Maximum Delivery Prioritization (MDP) and Demand-Based Prioritization (DBP), within an arbitrary natural gas network under conditions of supply shortage. Model performance under both strategies is assessed in response to node and edge failure using demand satisfaction metrics, system-wide and localized dependency scores, and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis. Results show that DBP better preserves supply for high-demand nodes, while MDP offers broader coverage. The underlying network topology plays a critical role in shaping prioritization outcomes. Integrated GIS visualization enhances the interpretability of vulnerability assessments, revealing structurally critical components and localized vulnerabilities. The proposed framework supports scalable, data-driven decision-making for infrastructure planners and engineers, enabling improved disruption recovery and efficiency in constrained natural gas networks. These insights contribute to the development of more robust energy systems capable of withstanding stress and disruptions.
Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗
A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads
The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.
Biswas, Shuchismita↗
NASA Tech Briefs, Februrary 2013
Topics covered include: Measurements of Ultra-Stable Oscillator (USO) Allan Deviations in Space; Gaseous Nitrogen Orifice Mass Flow Calculator; Validation of Proposed Metrics for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Analysis Standards; Rover Low Gain Antenna Qualification for Deep Space Thermal Environments; Automated, Ultra-Sterile Solid Sample Handling and Analysis on a Chip; Measuring and Estimating Normalized Contrast in Infrared Flash Thermography; Spectrally and Radiometrically Stable, Wideband, Onboard Calibration Source; High-Reliability Waveguide Vacuum/Pressure Window; Methods of Fabricating Scintillators With Radioisotopes for Beta Battery Applications; Magnetic Shield for Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerators (ADR); CMOS-Compatible SOI MESFETS for Radiation-Hardened DC-to-DC Converters; Silicon Heat Pipe Array; Adaptive Phase Delay Generator; High-Temperature, Lightweight, Self-Healing Ceramic Composites for Aircraft Engine Applications; Treatment to Control Adhesion of Silicone-Based Elastomers; High-Temperature Adhesives for Thermally Stable Aero-Assist Technologies; Rockballer Sample Acquisition Tool; Rock Gripper for Sampling, Mobility, Anchoring, and Manipulation; Advanced Magnetic Materials Methods and Numerical Models for Fluidization in Microgravity and Hypogravity; Data Transfer for Multiple Sensor Networks Over a Broad Temperature Range; Using Combustion Synthesis to Reinforce Berms and Other Regolith Structures; Visible-Infrared Hyperspectral Image Projector; Three-Axis Attitude Estimation With a High-Bandwidth Angular Rate Sensor Change_Detection.m; AGATE: Adversarial Game Analysis for Tactical Evaluation; Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative; Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME); An Extensible, User- Modifiable Framework for Planning Activities; Mission Operations Center (MOC) - Precipitation Processing System (PPS) Interface Software System (MPISS); Automated 3D Damaged Cavity Model Builder for Lower Surface Acreage Tile on Orbiter; Mixed Linear/Square-Root Encoded Single-Slope Ramp Provides Low-Noise ADC with High Linearity for Focal Plane Arrays; RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers; Powered Descent Guidance with General Thrust-Pointing Constraints; X-Ray Detection and Processing Models for Spacecraft Navigation and Timing; and Extreme Ionizing-Radiation-Resistant Bacterium
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Goal-Oriented Discretization Error Control in Coupled Nearfield-Farfield Low-Boom Simulations
The method of adjoint weighted residuals is used to determine the level of discretization error in loudness predictions of sonic booms on the ground. We analyze the standard nearfied-farfield domain decomposition approach. In the nearfield domain, the three-dimensional Euler equations are solved to obtain a pressure signature generated by the aircraft. In the farfield, this waveform is propagated through the atmosphere to the ground by solving the augmented Burgers’ equation. Loudness is characterized using weighted sound-exposure-level metrics. We formulate discretization error estimates for the ground signature and loudness metrics for this one-way coupled system. Although the nearfield solution is independent of the farfield, the adjoint formulation for the coupled system provides feedback from the farfield to identify high-error regions in the nearfield. The results demonstrate that the discrete adjoint implementation is asymptotically consistent and provides reliable error estimates. Furthermore, we show how the error can be controlled through adaptive refinement of the nearfield mesh. The approach is evaluated on two- and three-dimensional problems, including the X-59 flight demonstration aircraft.
CST↗
An Integrated Assessment of a G3 GMD Event on Large-Scale Power Grids: From Magnetometer Data to Geomagnetically Induced Current Analysis
Solar activities can cause geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) that give rise to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which may compromise the reliability of the power system. In order to build more reliable models representing GMD interactions with the power grid, the power system’s detailed electrical model must be considered along with fluctuations in the earth’s magnetic and induced surface electric fields. Here, this study investigates the impact of incorporating spatially varying magnetic fields into surface electric field models on GMD risk metrics. A spatially independent magnetic field model and a spatially varying model are compared through simulations. To perform this analysis, the earth’s magnetic field disturbances are transformed into surface electric fields using respective one-dimensional earth conductivity models. Then, the modeling impact of these electric fields is studied using a 2,000-bus grid for Texas and a 25,000-bus grid for the northeast and mid- Atlantic regions of the United States. Simulation results reveal that the inclusion of spatially varying magnetic fields results in considerable differences in GMD risk metrics, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial variability when assessing GMD risks in the power system.
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Automated, high-accuracy classification of textured microstructures using a convolutional neural network
Crystallographic texture is an important descriptor of material properties but requires time-intensive electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) for identifying grain orientations. While some metrics such as grain size or grain aspect ratio can distinguish textured microstructures from untextured microstructures after significant grain growth, such morphological differences are not always visually observable. This paper explores the use of deep learning to classify experimentally measured textured microstructures without knowledge of crystallographic orientation. A deep convolutional neural network is used to extract high-order morphological features from binary images to distinguish textured microstructures from untextured microstructures. The convolutional neural network results are compared with a statistical Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests with traditional morphological metrics for describing microstructures. Results show that the convolutional neural network achieves a significantly improved classification accuracy, particularly at early stages of grain growth, highlighting the capability of deep learning to identify the subtle morphological patterns resulting from texture. The results demonstrate the potential of a convolutional neural network as a tool for reliable and automated microstructure classification with minimal preprocessing.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Towards Principled Experimental Study of Autonomous Mobile Robots
We review the current state of research in autonomous mobile robots and conclude that there is an inadequate basis for predicting the reliability and behavior of robots operating in unengineered environments. We present a new approach to the study of autonomous mobile robot performance based on formal statistical analysis of independently reproducible experiments conducted on real robots. Simulators serve as models rather than experimental surrogates. We demonstrate three new results: 1) Two commonly used performance metrics (time and distance) are not as well correlated as is often tacitly assumed. 2) The probability distributions of these performance metrics are exponential rather than normal, and 3) a modular, object-oriented simulation accurately predicts the behavior of the real robot in a statistically significant manner.
Object-Oriented Simulation↗
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF RISK ANALYSIS TOOLKIT FOR PLANT RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION
This paper presents the development of methods and tools that are being designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules and optimal maintenance postures for plant components) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available component health and cost data. These methods include both data- and model-based optimization methods. Model-based optimization methods directly include reliability and cost models to determine an optimal plant operational strategy. We consider gradient-based and evolutionary (based on genetic algorithms) optimization methods. The second class of methods target more specific use cases (e.g., project schedule optimization) and are not based on reliability models directly, but they require specific component reliability and cost data. This class of methods is based on variants of the knapsack problem with an aim to determine an optimal project schedule that maximizes the overall NPV. This paper also presents multi-objective methods designed to identify an optimal maintenance posture based on a Pareto frontier analysis. Rather than dictating the “right” tradeoff (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), we show how it is possible to perform a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and let the analysis account for desired value and cost metrics). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space. For all these methods we present detailed applicative examples that show their validity from a decision-making perspective.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
HydroBio: Hydropower Capacity and Freshwater Biodiversity in Conterminous United States Sub-basins
This dataset summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin level throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). It contains descriptive information regarding each sub-basin (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code identifier, name, states, and size) along with sub-basin-level summaries of: 1) existing hydropower capacity (MW), 2) potential nominal non-powered dam (NPD) capacity (MW), 3) potential capacity of new stream reach development (NSD) (MW), and 4) freshwater biodiversity, including the total richness of fish, crayfish, and mussels and metrics that account for how rare and threatened those species tend to be. Hydropower data were obtained from Oak Ridge National Laboratory data resources (Existing Hydropower Assets, Non-Powered Dam Technical Potential, and New Stream Reach Development). Freshwater biodiversity data were obtained from NatureServe. Sub-basin characteristic information was obtained from the United States Geological Survey. Additionally, long data that provide lists of unique elements within each sub-basin for each constituent data resource (e.g., NatureServe, Existing Hydropower Assets) are provided to enhance dataset utility for users. The dataset provides, for the first time, a national-level assessment of existing and potential hydropower capacity in the context of freshwater biodiversity and is a valuable resource for stakeholders tasked with providing affordable, reliable energy to the American public while maintaining or enhancing invaluable freshwater resources. The dataset contains six data files in comma separated (*.csv) format that are within a zipped file.
Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
The Use of Remote Sensing for Monitoring, Prediction, and Management of Hydrologic, Agricultural, and Ecological Processes in the Northern Great Plains
The NASA-EPSCoR program in South Dakota is focused on the enhancement of NASA-related research in earth system science and corresponding infrastructure development to support this theme. Hence, the program has adopted a strategy that keys on research projects that: a) establish quantitative links between geospatial information technologies and fundamental climatic and ecosystem processes in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and b) develop and use coupled modeling tools, which can be initialized by data from combined satellite and surface measurements, to provide reliable predictions and management guidance for hydrologic, agricultural, and ecological systems of the NGP. Building a partnership network that includes both internal and external team members is recognized as an essential element of the SD NASA-EPSCoR program. Hence, promoting and tracking such linkages along with their relevant programmatic consequences are used as one metric to assess the program's progress and success. This annual report first summarizes general activities and accomplishments, and then provides progress narratives for the two separate, yet related research projects that are essential components of the SD NASA-EPSCoR program.
Farwell, Sherry O.↗
Space Launch System (SLS) Safety, Mission Assurance, and Risk Mitigation
SLS Driving Objectives: I. Safe: a) Human-rated to provide safe and reliable systems for human missions. b) Protecting the public, NASA workforce, high-value equipment and property, and the environment from potential harm. II. Affordable: a) Maximum use of common elements and existing assets, infrastructure, and workforce. b) Constrained budget environment. c) Competitive opportunities for affordability on-ramps. III. Sustainable: a) Initial capability: 70 metric tons (t), 2017-2021. 1) Serves as primary transportation for Orion and exploration missions. 2) Provides back-up capability for crew/cargo to ISS. b) Evolved capability: 105 t and 130 t, post-2021. 1) Offers large volume for science missions and payloads. 2) Modular and flexible, right-sized for mission requirements.
May, Todd↗
KIPM Detector Characterization in QUIET
Kinetic Inductance Phonon‑Mediated (KIPM) detectors are superconducting microwave resonators that sense energy depositions in the substrate through a transient shift in their resonant frequency. In this work, I installed new devices in the QUIET cryogenic facility and used a network analyzer to drive them across a range of power levels. At each setting, I measured the transmitted signal and fit it to a simple notch‑filter model, allowing us to extract key performance metrics. Despite the increased noise at low power, the model consistently captured the resonance behavior. I first measured the resonance parameters as a function of RF drive power, then repeated the measurement across a range of temperatures to test whether the device behaved like an MKID. While the notch-filter fits captured the resonance reliably, the observed temperature dependence did not match the expected MKID signature — indicating that these first in-house fabricated chips are not yet functioning as true MKIDs. Overall, this reframes our work as a study of resonance parameter extraction and identification, pointing towards future iterations of device design and fabrication to get the true MKID response.
Savitala, Akash [U. Washington, Seattle (main); Fe↗
Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain
W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.
Kulkarni, Chetan↗
TLIFE: a Program for Spur, Helical and Spiral Bevel Transmission Life and Reliability Modeling
This report describes a computer program, 'TLIFE', which models the service life of a transmission. The program is written in ANSI standard Fortran 77 and has an executable size of about 157 K bytes for use on a personal computer running DOS. It can also be compiled and executed in UNIX. The computer program can analyze any one of eleven unit transmissions either singly or in a series combination of up to twenty-five unit transmissions. Metric or English unit calculations are performed with the same routines using consistent input data and a units flag. Primary outputs are the dynamic capacity of the transmission and the mean lives of the transmission and of the sum of its components. The program uses a modular approach to separate the load analyses from the system life calculations. The program and its input and output data files are described herein. Three examples illustrate its use. A development of the theory behind the analysis in the program is included after the examples.
Savage, M.↗
COTS Ceramic Chip Capacitors: An Evaluation of the Parts and Assurance Methodologies
Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) multilayer ceramic chip capacitors (MLCCs) are continually evolving to reduce physical size and increase volumetric efficiency. Designers of high reliability aerospace and military systems are attracted to these attributes of COTS MLCCs and would like to take advantage of them while maintaining the high standards for long-term reliable operation they are accustomed io when selecting military qualified established reliability (MIL-ER) MLCCs. However, MIL-ER MLCCs are not available in the full range of small chip sizes with high capacitance as found in today's COTS MLCCs. The objectives for this evaluation were to assess the long-term performance of small case size COTS MLCCs and to identify effective, lower-cost product assurance methodologies. Fifteen (15) lots of COTS X7R dielectric MLCCs from four (4) different manufacturers and two (2) MIL-ER BX dielectric MLCCs from two (2) of the same manufacturers were evaluated. Both 0805 and 0402 chip sizes were included. Several voltage ratings were tested ranging from a high of 50 volts to a low of 6.3 volts. The evaluation consisted of a comprehensive screening and qualification test program based upon MIL-PRF-55681 (i.e., voltage conditioning, thermal shock, moisture resistance, 2000-hour life test, etc.). In addition, several lot characterization tests were performed including Destructive Physical Analysis (DPA), Highly Accelerated Life Test (HALT) and Dielectric Voltage Breakdown Strength. The data analysis included a comparison of the 2000-hour life test results (used as a metric for long-term performance) relative to the screening and characterization test results. Results of this analysis indicate that the long-term life performance of COTS MLCCs is variable -- some lots perform well, some lots perform poorly. DPA and HALT were found to be promising lot characterization tests to identify substandard COTS MLCC lots prior to conducting more expensive screening and qualification tests. The results indicate that lot- specific screening and qualification are still recommended for high reliability applications. One significant and concerning observation is that MIL- type voltage conditioning (100 hours at twice rated voltage, 125 C) was not an effective screen in removing infant mortality parts for the particular lots of COTS MLCCs evaluated.
Brusse, Jay A.↗