Toward Fast Screening of Organic Solar Cell Blends
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Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.
ABSTRACT The asteroseismic modelling of solar-like stars has proved to be valuable in constraining dark matter. In this work, we study for the first time the influence of asymmetric dark matter (ADM) in the evolution of a subgiant star (KIC 8228742) by direct comparison with observational data. Both spectroscopic and seismic data are analysed with a new approach to the stellar calibration method, in which DM properties can also be considered as free inputs. In another phase of this study, a calibrated standard stellar model (without DM) is used as the benchmark for DM models. We find that the latter models consistently outperform the former for 10−40 ≤ σSD < 10−38 cm2, hinting that the presence of ADM in stars of this type does not go against observations. Moreover, we show that stellar seismology allows us to suggest exclusion limits that complement the constraints set by direct detection experiments. Different seismic observables are proposed to study DM properties and ΔΠℓ is found to be the most reliable, having the potential to build future DM exclusion diagrams. This new methodology can be a powerful tool in the analysis of the data coming from the next generation of asteroseismic missions.
Early on in 2018 Sandia recognized the Microsystems Engineering, Science and Applications (MESA) Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability to be unpredictable, inconsistent, reactive, and unable to provide strong linkage to the sponsor's needs. The impetus for this report is to share learnings from MESA's journey towards maturing this capability. This report describes re-building the foundational elements of MESA's Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability using a risk-based, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. To begin, MESA's decades-old Piano Chart + Ad Hoc Hybrid Methodology is described with a narrative of its strengths and weaknesses. Then its replacement, the MCDA /Analytical Hierarchy Process, is introduced with a discussion of its strengths and weaknesses. To generate a realistic Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning budget outlook, MESA used its rolling 20-year Extended Life Program Plan (MELPP) as a baseline. The new MCDA risk-based prioritization methodology implements DOE/NNSA guidelines for prioritization of DOE activities and provides a reliable, structured framework for combining expert judgement and stakeholder preferences according to an established scientific technique. An in-house Hybrid Decision Support System (HDSS) software application was developed to facilitate production of several key deliverables. The application enables analysis of the prioritization decisions with charts to display and provide linkage of MESA's funding requests to the stakeholders' priorities, strategic objectives, nuclear deterrence programs, MESA priorities, and much more.
This is the final technical report for the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) under the Solar Energy Technology's Office Balance of Systems program, Award Number 38429. This report summarizes the key outputs and findings of the project, which was focused on long-duration energy storage (LDES) and solar. In particular, one of the most significant challenges of maximizing the value of variable solar energy is the timing of charging and discharging stored energy from LDES devices. Power systems often fail to capture the benefits of LDES and can undervalue the role of storage in providing energy arbitrage, reliability support, and resiliency. This project examined those challenges and proposed alternative methodologies that better capture the value that LDES can provide.
Requirements for reliable avionic systems are discussed in terms of the effectiveness of programming methodology. The need for methods to cope with the complexity of critical real-time systems is emphasized. Some general concepts about formal methods are presented and an example is given of the SRI hierarchical development methodology taken from the executive system of the SIFT fault tolerant computer. Formal methods with alternatives are compared and the prospects for introducing formal methods into practice are considered.
Flutter of an aeroelastic structure is potentially destructive aeroelastic instability. This phenomenon has motivated research within the aeroelastic community to develop methods that can accurately predict aeroelastic instabilities. The Flutterometer method used herein, and as developed by NASA DFRC, is based upon the mu method which has been coupled with wavelet filtering processes in estimating aeroelastic models from flight data. The approach leads to a methodology to predict the occurrence of flutter boundaries, and may prove to reliably predict flutter boundaries during flight tests. An analytical model is used as the first estimate of the aeroelastic structural dynamics, and uncertainty operators are introduced into the system to model variations between the theoretical system and the physical system. The modelling uncertainties are then updated from experimental data. Although the model used did not work well with this particular experiment, a sensitivity analysis was additionally performed and improvements suggested.
The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.
Crucial to an efficient aircraft simulation-based design is a robust data modeling methodology for both recording the information and providing data transfer readily and reliably. To meet this goal, data modeling issues involved in the aircraft multidisciplinary design are first analyzed in this study. Next, an XML-based. extensible data object model for multidisciplinary aircraft design is constructed and implemented. The implementation of the model through aircraft databinding allows the design applications to access and manipulate any disciplinary data with a lightweight and easy-to-use API. In addition, language independent representation of aircraft disciplinary data in the model fosters interoperability amongst heterogeneous systems thereby facilitating data sharing and exchange between various design tools and systems.
A second-order unstructured-grid code, developed and used primarily for steady aerodynamic simulations, is applied to the synthetic jet in a cross flow. The code, FUN3D, is a vertex-centered finite-volume method originally developed by Anderson[1, 2], and is currently supported by members of the Fast Adaptive Aerospace Tools team at NASA Langley. Used primarily for design[3] and analysis[4] of steady aerodynamic configurations, FUN3D incorporates a discrete adjoint capability, and supports parallel computations using MPI. A detailed description of the FUN3D code can be found in the references given above. The code is under continuous development and contains a variety of flux splitting algorithms for the inviscid terms, two methods for computing gradients, several turbulence models, and several solution methodologies; all in varying states of development. Only the most robust and reliable components, based on experiences with steady aerodynamic simulations, were employed in this work. As applied in this work, FUN3D solves the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the one equation turbulence model of Spalart and Allmaras[5]. The spatial discretization is formed on unstructured meshes using a vertex-centered approach. The inviscid terms are evaluated by a flux-difference splitting formulation using least-squares reconstruction and Roe-type approximate Riemann fluxes. Green-Gauss gradient evaluations are used for viscous and turbulence modeling terms. The discrete spatial operator is combined with a backward time operator which is then solved iteratively using point or line Gauss-Seidel and local time stepping in a pseudo time. For steady flows, the physical time step is set to infinity and the pseudo time step is ramped up with the iteration count. A second-order backward in time operator is used for time accurate flows with 20 to 50 steps in the pseudo time applied at each physical time step. For this effort, FUN3D was modified to support spatially varying boundary and initial conditions, and unsteady boundary conditions. Also, a specialized in/out flow boundary condition was implemented to model the action of the diaphragm. This boundary condition is described below in more detail. The grids were generated using the internally developed codes GridEX[6] for meshing the surfaces and inviscid regions of the domain, and for CAD access; and MesherX[7] for meshing the viscous regions. Grid spacing in on the surfaces and in the inviscid regions are indirectly controlled by specifying sources. The viscous layers are generated using an advancing layer technique. MeshersX allows the user to control the spatial variation of the first step off the surface, growth rates, and the termination criterion by providing small problem dependent subroutines.
Modern military aircraft jet engines are designed with variable geometry nozzles to provide optimum thrust in different operating conditions, depending on the flight envelope. However, the acoustic measurements for such nozzles are scarce, due to the cost involved in making full scale measurements and the lack of details about the exact geometry of these nozzles. Thus the present effort at The Pennsylvania State University and the NASA Glenn Research Center- in partnership with GE Aviation is aiming to study and characterize the acoustic field produced by supersonic jets issuing from converging-diverging military style nozzles. An equally important objective is to validate methodology for using data obtained from small and moderate scale experiments to reliably predict the most important components of full scale engine noise. The experimental results presented show reasonable agreement between small scale and moderate scale jet acoustic data, as well as between heated jets and heat-simulated ones. Unresolved issues however are identified that are currently receiving our attention, in particular the effect of the small bypass ratio airflow. Future activities will identify and test promising noise reduction techniques in an effort to predict how well such concepts will work with full scale engines in flight conditions.
A survey was conducted of all the various rocket test programs that have been performed since the establishment of NASA Stennis Space Center. The relevant information from each of these programs were compiled and used to quantify the theoretical noise source levels using the NASA approved methodology for computing "acoustic loads generated by a propulsion system" (NASA SP ]8072). This methodology, which is outlined in Reference 1, has been verified as a reliable means of determining the noise source characteristics of rocket engines. This information is being provided to establish reference environments for new government/business residents to ascertain whether or not their activities will generate acoustic environments that are more "encroaching" in the NASA Fee Area. In this report, the designation of sound power level refers to the acoustic power of the rocket engine at the engine itself. This is in contrast to the sound pressure level associated with the propagation of the acoustic energy in the surrounding air. The first part of the survey documents the "at source" sound power levels and their dominant frequency bands for the range of engines tested at Stennis. The second part of the survey discusses how the acoustic energy levels will propagate non ]uniformly from the test stands. To demonstrate this, representative acoustic sound pressure mappings in the NASA Stennis Fee Area were computed for typical engine tests on the B ]1 and E ]1 test stands.
Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.
Risk-based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process that defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2021 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed-wiring-board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed-wiring-board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends are then matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk-based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
To assess the integrity and reliability of an adhesive joint in an automotive composite component, several non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methodologies are correlated to lap shear bond strengths. A glass-fabric-reinforced composite structure was bonded to a metallic structure with a two-part epoxy adhesive. Samples were subsequently cut and tested in shear, and flaws were found in some areas. This study aims to develop a reliable and portable NDE system for service-level adhesive inspection in the automotive industry. The results of the experimental investigation using several NDE methods are presented and discussed. Fiberglass-to-metal bonding is the ideal configuration for NDE via thermography using excitation with induction heating, due to the conductive metal and non-conductive glass-fiber-reinforced composites. Excitation can be either by a research-grade induction heater of highly defined frequency and intensity, or by a service-level heater, such as would be used for sealing windshields in a body shop. The thermographs thus produced can be captured via a high-resolution infrared camera, with principal component analysis and 2D spatial Laplacian processing. Alternatively, the thermographs can be captured by low resolution thermochromic microencapsulated liquid crystal film imaging, which needs no post-processing and can be very inexpensive. These samples were also examined with phased-array ultrasound. The NDE methods are compared to the lap shear values and to each other for approximate cost, accuracy, and time and level of expertise needed.
A proof of concept of a continuously variable rotor speed control methodology for rotorcraft is described. Variable rotor speed is desirable for several reasons including improved maneuverability, agility, and noise reduction. However, it has been difficult to implement because turboshaft engines are designed to operate within a narrow speed band, and a reliable drive train that can provide continuous power over a wide speed range does not exist. The new methodology proposed here is a sequential shifting control for twin-engine rotorcraft that coordinates the disengagement and engagement of the two turboshaft engines in such a way that the rotor speed may vary over a wide range, but the engines remain within their prescribed speed bands and provide continuous torque to the rotor; two multi-speed gearboxes facilitate the wide rotor speed variation. The shifting process begins when one engine slows down and disengages from the transmission by way of a standard freewheeling clutch mechanism; the other engine continues to apply torque to the rotor. Once one engine disengages, its gear shifts, the multi-speed gearbox output shaft speed resynchronizes and it re-engages. This process is then repeated with the other engine. By tailoring the sequential shifting, the rotor may perform large, rapid speed changes smoothly, as demonstrated in several examples. The emphasis of this effort is on the coordination and control aspects for proof of concept. The engines, rotor, and transmission are all simplified linear models, integrated to capture the basic dynamics of the problem.
The overall objective is to provide a validated technology base leading to the development and exploitation of new concepts, analysis and design methodologies, and flight systems for future civil and military aircraft. This will provide increased efficiency, effectiveness, reliability, and safety. The program is organized into generic elements and vehicle-specific elements. The generic elements are control theory, guidance and display concepts, and flight crucial systems. Vehicle-specific elements are generic hypersonics, subsonic transport/commuter/general aviation, rotorcraft, and fighter/attack. Research in the control theory element is directed toward the improved flight control analysis and design methodologies for highly integrated, robust flight control designs. Flight Crucial Systems research is directed toward the development of design, assessment, and validation methodologies for flight crucial systems. The generic hypersonics research concentrates on the integration of flight control, propulsion control, sensors, and displays. The Aeronautical Controls and Guidance Program involves analytical and experimental research by in-house, university, and industry personnel. Extensive use of ground-based simulation is a characteristic of the program with selected flight experiments in a variety of aircraft.
Safety, reliability, and maintenance of hydrogen-based equipment, including Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM), have recently gained increasing attention, as hydrogen, while key to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, raises safety concerns. However, two literature gaps limit the development of risk-based strategies for hydrogen technologies. First, existing RBM methodologies do not account for hydrogen-specific components, such as electrolyzers, which differ from conventional equipment. Second, available studies on electrolyzer reliability remain largely qualitative or laboratory-scale. This study addresses these gaps by proposing an adapted RBM methodology tailored to hydrogen-fueled manufacturing facilities. Integrating qualitative tools (e.g., FMEA) with probabilistic models (e.g., Bayesian Networks) enables comprehensive hazardous scenarios identification and likelihood estimation. A conceptual layout of a glass furnace supplied by a 3 MW PEM electrolyzer is considered as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the adapted RBM framework in identifying high-risk components and enabling maintenance prioritization, potentially improving plant safety.