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At least 433 records · Page 24

Herbaceous Feedstock 2020 (State of Technology Report)

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 required a minimum supply of 36 million gallons of renewable fuels per year by 2022. In order to achieve these goals, the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) has set cost and technology targets for producing advanced and cellulosic biofuels. One of the targets is to validate feedstock supply infrastructures and systems with 90% overall operating effectiveness and field-to-reactor throat delivered cost less than $85.51/dry ton (2016). As stated by the 2017 Multi-Year Program Plan (DOE 2017), the research and development focus of the Feedstock Technologies (FT) platform is reducing the cost, improving the supply chain logistic efficiency, improving biomass quality, and increasing the supply volume. In addition, BETO oversees annual State of Technology (SOT) report that assesses current technologies that are relevant to BETO’s targets based on actual data and experimental results. Feedstocks are essential to achieving BETO goals because the cost, quality, and quantity of feedstock available and accessible at any given time limit the maximum volume of biofuels that can be produced. In accordance with the 2016 Multi-Year Program Plan (DOE 2016a), FT focuses on (1) reducing the delivered cost of sustainably produced biomass, (2) preserving and improving the physical and chemical quality parameters of harvested biomass to meet the individual needs of biorefineries and other biomass users, and (3) expanding the quantity of feedstock materials accessible to the bioenergy industry. This is done by identifying, developing, demonstrating, and validating efficient and economical integrated systems for harvest and collection, storage, handling, transport, and preprocessing raw biomass from a variety of crops to reliably deliver the required supplies of high-quality, affordable feedstocks to biorefineries as the industry expands. The elements of cost, quality, and quantity are key considerations when developing advanced feedstock supply concepts and systems (DOE 2016a).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Next Generation Logistics Systems for Delivering Optimal Biomass Feedstocks to Biorefining Industries in the Southeastern U.S.

The diverse portfolio of biomass sources that is available in the Southeastern U.S., including a significant supply of pine “residue”, represents a valuable strategic position for the region. Through blends formulated based on critical properties, this project will take full advantage of the range in biomass properties afforded by the portfolio to produce a consistent, high-performance feedstock for the industry, while lowering cost. Key developments being targeted to enable this potential include whole-tree transport to a state-of-the-art merchandising depot that will further access biomass from ongoing, forest industry operations. The approach will more effectively utilize the tree and distribute cost, while minimizing in-woods contamination of the woody biomass component. To implement this vision, information on the chemical composition and changes that are induced during multiple preprocessing steps (size reduction, moisture removal, densification, etc.) is needed. New NIR sensor technology will be developed for online monitoring of important biomass properties. The data will be incorporated into a statistical process control platform to improve process efficiency and meet required specifications. Advanced process models are being developed to inform the techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of the program’s impact. The new system will ultimately reduce operational risks from supply chain disruptions, and allow operation of larger-scale biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

BCLink User Documentation

BCLink is a shared programming library providing general functionality to read temporally- and spatially-varying boundary condition data (contained in Exodus files) into MDG codes (ParaDyn and Diablo). This document is intended for prospective users of BCLink, presenting a summary of the available features of the library, including details regarding the input syntax with accompanying examples. The library’s capabilities are demonstrated through example problems run in ParaDyn, and using the BCRemap command line utility – a stand-alone preprocessing tool which leverages the native functionality provided by the BCLink library to remap surface data between dissimilar meshes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-Time Optimization Workflow Status Update

Economically optimal and safe operation of integrated energy systems (IES) requires optimization at many different time scales. A real-time optimization (RTO) workflow will attempt to maximize revenue and minimize operational costs on a time scale of minutes to hours. Such a workflow requires the use of a digital twin (DT), which is a virtual representation of a physical system. The DT is updated using real-time data from the physical system, and serves as a model in an optimization framework. The optimization results are then sent back to the physical system to complete the loop. This report details the progress made in developing building blocks for a DT/RTO framework. The Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) platform within the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite can perform many of the tasks required for building a DT and performing RTO. The first item of this report details RAVEN enhancements that enable RAVEN workflows to be run in various environments. Data communication between the physical system and its DT is essential for successful RTO. This includes preprocessing real-time data, loading data into a data warehouse, and querying the stored data. The second section of this report describes the progress made in implementing an adapter in Python in order for Deep Lynx to handle the data communication. Typical dispatch optimization frameworks are built on linear programming (LP). The prototype RTO workflow developed in this report uses an LP problem as a part of a receding-horizon- or economic model predictive control (EMPC) based optimization. The third section of this report details the framework of an RTO workflow in which the system consists of a simple electrical storage device. A DT can be built from a reduced-order model (ROM). Integrating a ROM into a typical LP optimization framework has been challenging because most optimization packages require the user to write algebraic expressions for the system model. The final section of this report shows how an externally built RAVEN ROM can be integrated in an RTO framework by using the Python package Pyomo. This demonstrates the RTO workflow capability from a software-only perspective and is an important step in demonstrating the capability to implement an RTO workflow for a physical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Particle scale impacts on deconstruction energy of pine residues

The goal of this Case Study was to quantify the impacts of variable moisture and ash on hammer mill throughput and energy consumption and on generation of fines that are not able to be fed to conversion, as compared to a status quo Base Case system. Also considered was convertible carbon content (minimum carbon specification) and maximum ash content and the delivered feedstock cost impacts of not being able to feed residue not meeting both specifications to the conversion reactor. Laboratory data on the impacts of input particle size and moisture content on the exit particle size were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2 from their single particle impact population balance modeling study. Additional throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from FCIC Subtask 5.2 for the same grinder with a 6 mm screen in place. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the ash contents in the separated fines had not been analyzed in the laboratory at the time of the model runs, we chose to assume that the ash distributed proportionally with total mass into the overs and unders in the disk screen following grinding. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that it is significantly more cost effective to hammer mill the residue prior to drying, even though the grinder throughput is lower and energy consumption is higher versus drying first before grinding. An effect of dry grinding versus high moisture grinding is the production of higher amounts of fines during dry grinding, leading to significantly more of the ground feedstock being rejected by conversion for being below a minimum particle size. With wet grinding the system is still able to produce more preprocessed feedstock meeting the minimum particle size specification even though the instantaneous throughput is lower than for the case of grinding dry feedstock. Additionally, even without the higher fines production from dry grinding, the status quo would still be more costly than wet grinding because the material is rejected after the drying energy has already been input for the dry grinding case. Finally, significant reductions in drying energy are obtained by drying after grinding, and those reductions are of far greater magnitude than the grinding energy increase.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Value proposition of coatings or new alloys on hammer wear

The goal of this Case Study was to elucidate the value of improving of the life of parts that wear within a system in terms of the additional material cost that it takes to reach the level of improvement. We recognize that the failure limits and system performance are representative of a single system that may or may not exist in the real world, however, our goal of this project was not to provide an answer for a specific system or to provide a full understanding the economics of all potential systems. The analysis was performed using relative changes from the base alloy cost and considered relative improvements in part life in order to generalize the comparison without referencing specific alloys or coatings that might be employed. Ultimately, this work provides a first check of the potential for improving wear characteristics of grinder hammers to provide a meaningful and impactful benefit to biomass preprocessing and conversion systems. Key takeaways include: • Increasing the life of hammers by 3× provides a delivered feedstock cost benefit of approximately $\$2.25$/dry ton assuming that the relative cost of the hammer material of construction is not increased. • The feasible area of relative hammer cost increase ranges from 110% to 122% of the relative life increase, i.e., a 3× life increase can cost 3.66× the cost of the original hammers • Beyond a 3× increase in relative hammer life, little economic benefit is realized • Even when moisture impacts are included, the relationship between relative hammer cost and relative hammer life was reduced only slightly to a range of 108% to 116% • From the simulation we would expect delivered feedstock costs to be within ±$1.10/dry ton, based on the uncertainty analysis

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Herbaceous Feedstock 2021 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the State of Technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and INL collaboration with external partners (e.g. Forest Concepts, Purdue University ) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D technology improvements to individual supply system unit operations and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting herbaceous biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Plan.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Tools for Assessing Performance: FY23-Q1 Report [Slides]

LANL was tasked with working with NREL to implement QUIC within the TAP API by the end of Q1, FY2023. If QUICURB cannot be implemented in a way that it can be run outside of the QUIC platform, there will be no further R&D funding for QUIC development. QUIC includes a graphical user interface that imports and preprocesses the various input data streams (3D building databases, ambient wind, vegetation, etc.) and writes them in a format that the QUICURB Fortran executable requires. In order to interface with the TAP API, a Python script was developed that would replace the functionality previously only available within QUICGUI. LANL worked with NREL to test the Python script to ensure that it was operation and fulfilled the requirements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Available Feedstocks for High-Temperature Conversion: Whole Tree Thinnings and Mature Pine Residues

The TEA and LCA impacts of utilizing low-cost feedstocks in a high-temperature conversion process are of great interest. Here, we investigate the conversion cost impacts of two underutilized feedstocks from the commercial pine industry; 13-year-old whole trees, representing trees removed for the purpose of pre-commercial thinning, and 23-year-old pine residues, representing a waste stream produced from the deconstruction of mature trees for other purposes. Experimental fast pyrolysis data for each feedstock was used in tandem with results from supply and preprocessing analyses in order to evaluate the field-to-fuel economics. A low difference in MFSP was found between the conversion costs for the two feedstocks, with residues demonstrating a net benefit of $0.27/GGE compared to the whole tree thinnings, driven primarily by feedstock supply costs. This suggests that both whole tree thinnings and pine residues may be viable feedstock options for CFP conversion. Life cycle inventories were also generated for each case, enabling a field-to-fuel quantification of the cost and carbon cycle associated with each feedstock.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

AD – Elog Data Search Using Natural Language Processing Techniques

The goal of this project is to develop and evaluate a Machine Learning model using natural language processing techniques to categorize AD E-Log entries efficiently. AD E-Logs, which play a vital role in Fermilab's projects as a system to record and manage various data, often suffer from slow search processing and imprecise results. To address this issue, we preprocessed the data and employed the Doc2Vec model for training. The resulting model enables us to identify and retrieve the most relevant entries, thus enhancing user experience in accessing desired information.

Muse, Amiin↗

Neural MUSE Analysis

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created data as part of the MUSE (Multi-Agency Urban Search Experiment Detector and Algorithm Test Bed) project simulating illicit nuclear materials located in various buildings along a road. In the simulation, a truck containing a radiation detector drives down the road gathering listmode data (counting the and energy of incident gamma radiation). Building materials, source shielding, driving speed, truck direction, truck location on the road, source type, and source placement are all varied between runs of the data set. This data was created using deterministic neutron transport and Monte Carlo methods through a combination of SCALE, MAVRIC, MCNP, and GADRAS. As part of a follow-on NA-22 project, two Kaggle competitions were created to determine the best algorithms for finding and identifying gamma sources in this simulated urban environment. The winning algorithm was neural network-based and had a test accuracy of 76.4% accuracy for source identification. This work seeks to build upon this work and improve the results through the application of novel machine learning techniques. As a first step, the data was classified by a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) To accomplish this, the data was first preprocessed into “waterfall plots.” These plots are composed of energy vs count plots that are stacked vertically to show progression in time. The horizontal axis indicating the particle energy incorporated user defined bin spacing with options for in linear-, logarithmic-, square root-, and user-spaced bins. The z or color dimension showed the number of counts corresponding the energy-time combination. This data was then used to generate more data, by generating a local estimate of the mean of the distribution for a bin and then randomly re-sampling that bin from a Poisson distribution. Once all of this data was generated, it was fed into a well-known CNN architecture, ResNet50. The output layer of this model was removed and replaced with layers corresponding to the shape desired isotope outputs. The provided training data was used to train the classifier and the remaining testing data was used to evaluate the model. Results are soon to be forthcoming.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Workflows Community Summit 2022: A Roadmap Revolution

Scientific workflows have become integral tools in broad scientific computing use cases. Science discovery is increasingly dependent on workflows to orchestrate large and complex scientific experiments that range from the execution of a cloud-based data preprocessing pipeline to multi-facility instrument-to-edge-to-HPC computational workflows. Given the changing landscape of scientific computing (often referred to as a computing continuum) and the evolving needs of emerging scientific applications, it is paramount that the development of novel scientific workflows and system functionalities seek to increase the efficiency, resilience, and pervasiveness of existing systems and applications. Specifically, the proliferation of machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) workflows, need for processing large-scale datasets produced by instruments at the edge, intensification of near real-time data processing, support for long-term experiment campaigns, and emergence of quantum computing as an adjunct to HPC, have significantly changed the functional and operational requirements of workflow systems. Workflow systems now need to, for example, support data streams from the edge-to-cloud-to-HPC, enable the management of many small-sized files, allow data reduction while ensuring high accuracy, orchestrate distributed services (workflows, instruments, data movement, provenance, publication, etc.) across computing and user facilities, among others. Further, to accelerate science, it is also necessary that these systems implement specifications/standards and APIs for seamless (horizontal and vertical) integration between systems and applications, as well as enable the publication of workflows and their associated products according to the FAIR principles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

0BGRaman: Graph Network based Simulator for Forecasting Molecular Polarizability

This report presents the work performed under the GRaman project, sponsored by the PCSD LDRD Seed program. The project aimed at accelerating ab initio molecular dynamics simulation using Graph Networks. The Graph Network framework is a ML framework that has been successfully employed to simulate the dynamics of several physical systems: including water splashing in a container and flags moving with the wind. In this effort, we performed a data collection campaign for 3 different molecules of interest. We have built tools for preprocessing the trajectories obtained by simulating Raman Spectroscopy with NWChem and translating them into a suitable format for training. We have developed a training algorithm to train the Graph Network based simulators based on our data and developed a simulator that produces trajectories in the same NWChem format. While the tool has improved with each iteration of development and subsequent experiments, the current state of the tool does not allow to directly incorporate the technology within the NWChem framework because the trajectories produced by the tool are not yet accurate enough. However, the technology has proved to have good potential and it is certainly worth further research and development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Challenges and Advances in Aqueous Processing of Corn Stover Pellets into High Concentration Slurries

Significant progress has occurred in developing combined enzyme hydrolysis and fermentation technologies for transforming lignocellulosic feedstocks into ethanol and other bioproducts. Various routes described in the literature show that low carbon footprint processes efficiently convert the cellulose and hemicellulose fractions of pretreated corn stover, wood chips, and sugarcane bagasse to sugars and to ethanol.Combinations of different pretreatments at high or low pH or in liquid hot water, followed by enzyme hydrolysis and fermentation or direct conversion of cellulose to ethanol (i.e., by consolidated bioprocessing)have been demonstrated. These successes have brought the need to preparing the feedstock – before it enters the biorefinery – into focus. This paper summarizes recent developments in liquefying corn stover,before pretreatment, so that slurries with yield stresses below 200 Pa are obtained and a “pumpable” corn stover slurry results at initial solids loadings of up to 300 g/L. The manner in which corn stover pellets are combined with water and enzyme in an agitated bioreactor is described, and properties that define slurry behavior are presented. Implications on biorefinery operations are explained in terms of particle properties and the preprocessing of corn stover as well as the team approach used to obtain these results.

Wassgren, Carl↗

Augmented Human Analysis (AHA)

Radio frequency (RF) signal monitoring generally emphasizes intentionally generated signals, such as WiFi, Bluetooth, or cellular transmissions. However, electronic devices also produce unintended radiated emissions (UREs), which could also be useful in RF spectrum analysis. In either case, deriving intelligence from RF signals is typically a human-intensive process requiring significant domain knowledge. In the Augmented Human Analysis (AHA) project, we investigate the utility of dimensionally aligned signal projection (DASP) and machine learning (ML) algorithms for accelerating RF analysis workflows. We find that while DASP algorithms can indeed highlight signal characteristics relevant for classification tasks, the choice of algorithmic hyperparameters greatly affects performance. To address this challenge, we evaluate the quality of DASP outputs using the silhouette score, which measures how well data points cluster; high silhouette scores indicate good clustering, and thus good hyperparameter values. This approach is critical for machine learning pipelines as the DASP parameters cannot be directly optimized during model training. By identifying good DASP parameters, and thus good DASP outputs, as a preprocessing step, we can decrease the amount of effort required for downstream ML model training. We demonstrate our workflow using a dataset of UREs from common household devices, showing that even without the aid of ML, proper selection of DASP parameters enables clustering by device type.

42 ENGINEERING↗