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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parameterizing empirical interatomic potentials for predicting thermophysical properties via an irreducible derivative approach: the case of ThO 2 and UO 2

The accuracy of classical physical property predictions using molecular dynamics simulations is determined by the quality of the interatomic potentials. Here we introduce a training approach for empirical interatomic potentials (EIPs) which is well suited for capturing phonons and phonon-related properties. Our approach is based on direct comparisons of the second- and third-order irreducible derivatives (IDs) between an EIP and the Born–Oppenheimer potential within density functional theory (DFT) calculations. IDs fully exploit space group symmetry and allow for training without redundant information. We demonstrate the fidelity of our approach in the context of ThO 2 and UO 2 , where we optimize parameters of an embedded-atom method potential in addition to core–shell interactions. Our EIPs provide thermophysical properties in good agreement with DFT and outperform widely utilized EIPs for phonon dispersion and thermal conductivity predictions. Reasonable estimates of thermal expansion and formation energies of Frenkel pairs are also obtained.

empirical interatomic potential↗

Cost performance satellite design using queueing theory

The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.

Hein, G. F.↗

A comparative study of atmospheric density models in the context of definitive and predictive earth satellite orbit determination

The results of a comparative orbit determination study of four global atmospheric density models (modified Harris-Priester, Jacchia-Roberts, Mass Spectrometer/Incoherent Scatter (MSIS), and Simple Exponential Model (SEM)) are presented. Utilizing these models, definitive orbit determination consistency and accuracy are evaluated using the maximum position differences that occur during 6-hour overlap periods between ephemerides generated from 30-hour data arcs. Propagated ephemerides are compared with definitive orbit solutions to evaluate predictive accuracy. The results indicate that, for satellites above 300 kilometers, all four atmospheric density models produce comparable orbit determination accuracies when an atmospheric drag scaling factor and the satellite state vector are estimated in the orbit determination process.

Shanklin, R. E., Jr.↗

Space shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques

The first twelve system state variables are presented with the necessary mathematical developments for incorporating them into the filter/smoother algorithm. Other state variables, i.e., aerodynamic coefficients can be easily incorporated into the estimation algorithm, representing uncertain parameters, but for initial checkout purposes are treated as known quantities. An approach for incorporating the NASA propulsion predictive model results into the optimal estimation algorithm was identified. This approach utilizes numerical derivatives and nominal predictions within the algorithm with global iterations of the algorithm. The iterative process is terminated when the quality of the estimates provided no longer significantly improves.

Source record↗

Fabrication and properties of functionally graded NiAl/Al2O3 composites

A modified sedimentation process was used in the production of a functionally gradient material (FGM), NiAl/Al2O3. A simple finite element model was used to guide our design and fabrication efforts by estimating residual stress states as a function of composite structure. This approach could lead to tailored designs that enhance or avoid specific residual stress states. Thermal cycling tests were factored into the model to predict time dependent or steady-state internal temperature and stress profiles. Four-point bend tests were conducted to establish the mechanical load-displacement behavior of a single interlayer FGM at room temperature, 800 and 1000 K. Room temperature bend strength of the FGM was 3-4 times that of the base NiAl. At elevated temperatures, composite fracture occurred in a gradual, noncatastrophic mode involving NiAl retardation of a succession of cracks originating in the alumina face.

Miller, D. P.↗

Attachment-Line Transition Due to Roughness on a 76 Degree Swept Cylinder at Mach 1.6

Experiments were conducted on a 76 deg. swept cylinder to establish the conditions for the attachment-line transition process with, and without, surface roughness in a low-disturbance ("quiet"), Mach number 1.6 flow. Local flow parameters were estimated from pressure measurements. These were in good agreement with predictions from an Euler code (CFL3D) and a boundary layer code (BL3D). Hot-wires and Schlieren photography were used to determine the state of the boundary layer. It was found that, for a near-adiabatic wall condition and a smooth surface, the attachment-line, boundary-layer remained laminar up to the highest attainable Reynolds number (R-bar of 790). Transition under the influence of trip wires was found to depend on wind-tunnel disturbance levels and the onset conditions have been established. Results suggest that current design practice, which is based upon data from conventional ("noisy") tunnels, may be highly conservative.

Coleman, Colin P.↗

A CFD Approach to Modeling Spacecraft Fuel Slosh

Energy dissipation and resonant coupling from sloshing fuel in spacecraft fuel tanks is a problem that occurs in the design of many spacecraft. In the case of a spin stabilized spacecraft, this energy dissipation can cause a growth in the spacecrafts' nutation (wobble) that may lead to disastrous consequences for the mission. Even in non-spinning spacecraft, coupling between the spacecraft or upper stage flight control system and an unanticipated slosh resonance can result in catastrophe. By using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver such as Fluent, a model for this fuel slosh can be created. The accuracy of the model must be tested by comparing its results to an experimental test case. Such a model will allow for the variation of many different parameters such as fluid viscosity and gravitational field, yielding a deeper understanding of spacecraft slosh dynamics. In order to gain a better understanding of the dynamics behind sloshing fluids, the Launch Services Program (LSP) at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is interested in finding ways to better model this behavior. Thanks to past research, a state-of-the-art fuel slosh research facility was designed and fabricated at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU). This test facility has produced interesting results and a fairly reliable parameter estimation process to predict the necessary values that accurately characterize a mechanical pendulum analog model. The current study at ERAU uses a different approach to model the free surface sloshing of liquid in a spherical tank using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods. Using a software package called Fluent, a model was created to simulate the sloshing motion of the propellant. This finite volume program uses a technique called the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to model the interaction between two fluids [4]. For the case of free surface slosh, the two fluids are the propellant and air. As the fuel sloshes around in the tank, it naturally displaces the air. Using the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy equations, as well as the VOF equations, one can predict the behavior of the sloshing fluid and calculate the forces, pressure gradients, and velocity field for the entire liquid as a function of time.

Marsell, Brandon↗

Model predictive control for matrix converter operating in current control mode with load current estimation

A matrix converter system operating in current control mode is provided. The matrix converter includes a switching matrix coupled between a low voltage side and a high voltage side, wherein the matrix converter is coupled at its low voltage side to a generator for receiving an input power including an input current and transforming the input power into an output power at its high voltage side, wherein a load is coupled to the high voltage side. The control system includes a load observer and a model predictive controller (MPC). The load observer is configured to estimate a load current that flows to the load from the high voltage side of the matrix converter as a function of a switching state of the switching matrix, an output voltage output at the high voltage side of the matrix converter, and the input current. The MPC is configured to select the switching state of the switching matrix to meet one or more control objectives defined by minimization of a multi-objective function that tracks the output voltage and the input current using the estimated load current.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Computationally Accelerated Discovery and Experimental Demonstration of High-Performance Materials for Advanced Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

This project achieved its overarching goal of accelerating the discovery and validation of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) materials through a tightly integrated approach that combined high-throughput computational screening, advanced machine learning (ML), and experimental testing. Guided by the objectives outlined in the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), our work fulfilled all major milestones across four technical tasks and delivered scientific breakthroughs and practical tools that significantly exceeded the original scope of the project. We began by addressing the challenge of predicting material phase stability through machine learning. A novel Python module was developed to generate thousands of meaningful features from composition, structure, and electronic properties, enabling rapid and reproducible ML model development. Using these tools, we trained a model to predict temperature-dependent Gibbs energies (G(T)) for inorganic crystalline materials with near-chemical accuracy—roughly 40 meV/atom—marking the first such descriptor of its kind. We also introduced a new machine-learned tolerance factor, τ, that accurately predicted perovskite formability with over 90% success, outperforming traditional heuristic models, such as the Goldschmidt tolerance factor. These capabilities allowed for rapid and accurate predictions of phase stability across a vast oxide composition space, setting the stage for high-throughput thermodynamic screening. Building on this foundation, we conducted an extensive computational screening of candidate STCH oxide materials. Over 1.1 million perovskite compositions were evaluated using the τ descriptor, leading to the identification of more than 27,000 predicted stable structures. Using density functional theory (DFT), we refined over 68,000 multinary perovskite structures and computed oxygen vacancy formation energies for over 1,300 ternary and double perovskites. These calculations enabled us to isolate compounds with redox behavior consistent with STCH requirements and resulted in a public dataset now hosted on the Materials Project. Recognizing that thermodynamic screening alone is insufficient, we addressed kinetic limitations by developing a suite of tools to estimate transition state (TS) energies for key redox reactions. We implemented a novel bounding approach that provides lower and upper estimates of TS energies with dramatically reduced computational cost, requiring less than 10% of the CPU time of a full nudged elastic band (NEB) calculation while maintaining high accuracy. This enabled rapid evaluation of over 200 reaction pathways across 90 materials. To further accelerate screening, we developed a SISSO-based ML model to predict diffusion barriers with a 96.7% success rate in classifying fast vs. slow materials, supporting a robust, data-driven framework for assessing redox kinetics. Experimental validation was critical to confirming the predictive power of our models. We synthesized and tested a wide array of candidate materials, including Mn-doped hercynite and several Gd- and La-based perovskites. Notably, Sr 0.4 Gd 0.6 Mn 0.6 Al 0.4 O 3 (SGMA) and Gd 0.5 La 0.5 Co 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 3 (GLCF) emerged as leading STCH materials, exhibiting robust redox cycling and high hydrogen yields exceeding 150 µmol H 2 /g per cycle. These materials also retained over 50% of their hydrogen productivity under high-conversion conditions (H 2 O:H 2 = 1333:1), demonstrating strong thermodynamic favorability and promising performance under industrially relevant scenarios. Additional candidates, such as La 2 MnNiO 6 (L2MN), were found to produce even higher yields than ceria under standard STCH conditions. Our collaborators at Sandia National Laboratories confirmed these findings using high-temperature X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis, observing stable phase evolution and reversible redox activity. In several respects, the project went beyond the goals initially outlined in the SOPO. We published 17 peer-reviewed articles, including a large dataset of over 66,000 theoretical perovskites and a new structure prediction method (SPuDS-DFT) that accurately identifies ground-state structures at a fraction of the cost of traditional DFT. We demonstrated that our machine-learned G(T) model offers accuracy rivaling quasiharmonic calculations while being orders of magnitude faster. In partnership with the Materials Project, we made our datasets openly available, providing a powerful new resource for the broader materials science community. The combined computational and experimental advances of this project represent a significant advance in STCH materials discovery. By creating a robust, generalizable, and open workflow for thermodynamic and kinetic screening, and validating key findings through synthesis and reactor testing, we have provided a practical and scalable pathway for the rapid identification of new redox-active materials. The tools, data, and materials developed under this project are already supporting ongoing research and have laid the groundwork for the next generation of solar fuel technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Identifying schools at high-risk for elevated lead in drinking water using only publicly available data

Estimating the risk of lead contamination of schools' drinking water at the State level is a complex, important, and unexplored challenge. Variable water quality among water systems and changes in water chemistry during distribution affect lead dissolution rates from pipes and fittings. In addition, the locations of lead-bearing plumbing materials are uncertain. We tested the capability of six machine learning models to predict the likelihood of lead contamination of drinking water at the schools' taps using only publicly available datasets. The predictive features used in the models correspond to those with a proven correlation to the dominant, but commonly unavailable, factors that govern lead leaching: the presence of lead-bearing plumbing materials and water quality conducive to lead corrosion. By combining water chemistry data from public reports, socioeconomic information from the US census, and spatial features using Geographic Information Systems, we trained and tested models to estimate the likelihood of lead contaminated tap water in over 8,000 schools across California and Massachusetts. Our best-performing model was a Random Forest, with a 10-fold cross validation score of 0.88 for Massachusetts and 0.78 for California using the average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC AUC) metric. The model was then used to assign a lead leaching risk category to half of the schools across California (the other half was used for training). There was good agreement between the modeled risk categories and the actual lead leaching outcomes for every school; however, the model overestimated the lead leaching risk in up to 17% of the schools. This model is the first of its kind to offer a tool to predict the risk of lead leaching in schools at the State level. Further use of this model can help deploy limited resources more effectively to prevent childhood lead exposure from school drinking water.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Formation energy puzzle in intermetallic alloys: Random phase approximation fails to predict accurate formation energies

We performed density functional calculations to estimate the formation energies of intermetallic alloys. We used two semilocal approximations, the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) by Perdew-Burke- Ernzerhof (PBE) and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA. In addition, we utilized two nonlocal DFT functionals, the hybrid HSE06, and the state-of-the-art random phase approximation (RPA). The nonlocal functionals such as HSE06 and RPA yield accurate formation energies of binary alloys with completely-filled d-band metals, where semilocal functionals underperform. The accuracy at the nonlocal functionals is greatly reduced when a partially-filled d-band metal is present in an alloy, while PBE-GGA outperforms in these cases. We show that the accurate prediction of formation energies by any DFT method depends on its ability to predict the accurate electronic properties, e.g., valence d-band contribution to the density of states (DOS). The SCAN meta-GGA often corrects the PBE-DOS, however, it does not provide accurate formation energies compared to PBE. This is assumed to be due to the lack of proper error cancellation that should be expected due to the similar bulk nature of both alloys and their constituents, which may improve with the modification of meta-GGA ingredients. RPA yields too negative formation energies of alloys with partially-filled d-band metals. RPA results can be corrected by restoring the exchange-correlation kernel, thereby improving the short-range electron-electron correlation in metallic densities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of Spray and Combustion Models for Simulating Dilute Combustion in a Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition Engine

Dilute combustion in spark-ignition engines has the potential to improve thermal efficiency by mitigating knock and by reducing throttling and wall heat losses. However, ignition and combustion processes can become unstable for dilute operation due to a lowered laminar flame speed, resulting in excessive cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the combustion process. To compensate for the slower combustion in less reactive mixtures, a modified intake port geometry can be employed to generate a strong tumble flow in the cylinder and elevate turbulence levels around the spark plug, thereby promoting a faster transition to turbulent deflagration. Consequently, optimizing combustion chamber geometry and operating strategy is crucial to maximizing the benefits of using dilute combustion with enhanced in-cylinder turbulence across a wide range of operating conditions. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can be utilized for virtual engine optimization tasks, but this would require the models to be truly predictive regarding the impact of changes to the engine design and operational parameters.In this study, multicycle large-eddy simulations (LES) are performed for a direct-injection spark-ignition engine to investigate the model performance in predicting engine combustion characteristics with respect to changes in the intake configuration. A tumble plate that blocks the lower part of the intake port inlet is used to vary the tumble. A set of CFD models that have been recently developed are employed, which takes into account the drag of nonspherical droplets, flash-boiling behavior of liquid sprays, spray-wall interaction, surrogate formulation of a research-grade E10 gasoline, and fast chemical kinetic solvers. Simulation results are compared to experimental engine data in terms of cylinder pressure, apparent heat release rate, mass fraction burned timing, and flame images. It is found that LES employing the state-of-the-art CFD models are capable of properly predicting the spray processes and reproducing the measured mean cylinder pressure for the case with the tumble plate. On the other hand, the LES over-predicts the combustion rate during the early combustion stage and under-estimates the CCV, and these discrepancies become larger when the tumble plate is removed.

computational fluid dynamics simulation↗