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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning–driven multiscale modeling reveals lipid-dependent dynamics of RAS signaling proteins

Significance Here we present an unprecedented multiscale simulation platform that enables modeling, hypothesis generation, and discovery across biologically relevant length and time scales to predict mechanisms that can be tested experimentally. We demonstrate that our predictive simulation-experimental validation loop generates accurate insights into RAS-membrane biology. Evaluating over 100,000 correlated simulations, we show that RAS–lipid interactions are dynamic and evolving, resulting in: 1) a reordering and selection of lipid domains in realistic eight-lipid bilayers, 2) clustering of RAS into multimers correlating with specific lipid fingerprints, 3) changes in the orientation of the RAS G-domain impacting its ability to interact with effectors, and 4) demonstration that RAS–RAS G-domain interfaces are nonspecific in these putative signaling domains.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Critical Unresolved Region Integral Experiment Execution

Integral Experiments are a key aspect of validating nuclear data behavior and simulation capabilities. Further, integral experiments are the earliest form of validation of equations and codes. They have been used extensively since the 1940s. Today, simulation and predictive capabilities have improved greatly from 75 years ago, but nonetheless, integral experiments are still needed. As simulation capabilities improve, their uncertainties get much smaller. The current focus of many new experiments is understanding the intermediate energy range. The intermediate energy range does not have a wide application space and it can be challenging to design experiments that are sensitive to neutron energies in this region. The Zeus experiments evaluated highly enriched uranium (HEU) in the intermediate energy region. Building on the success and knowledge gained from the Zeus experiments, the Critical Unresolved Region Integral Experiment (CURIE) experiments were designed to evaluate HEU in the narrower unresolved resonance region (URR). These experiments were executed during June and July 2020 at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC), operated by Los Alamos National Laboratory, is the only general purpose critical experiments facility in the United States of America. NCERC regularly designs and executes critical experiments and other measurements useful to a wide variety of fields including nuclear criticality safety, commercial nuclear energy, nonproliferation, and nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal-Fluid and Thermal-Structural Response of the T-Tube Modular Divertor to Spatiotemporally Varying Heat Loads

Tungsten (W) is the leading candidate for divertor target plates because of its high melting point (>3000°C), thermal conductivity, and ultimate tensile stress. While W and its alloys are the only solid materials that can survive the high heat fluxes incident on the divertor, W’s low-ductility high ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of ~600°C and relatively low recrystallization temperature (RT) of ~1300°C pose structural (among other) challenges. The objective of this work is to estimate the thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance of the helium (He)-cooled T-tube divertor, which was originally developed by the Advanced Reactor Innovation and Evaluation Study (ARIES) using numerical simulations. Here, predictions of temperature distributions across the plasma-facing structural component and surface pressures from computational fluid dynamics simulations are used to determine stress distributions using commercial structural finite element modeling software over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The maximum allowable incident heat fluxes are determined based on the temperature limits imposed by the ITER elastic Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) and the maximum RT over a range of He mass flow rates and presented in the form of performance design charts. Our recent work found that thermal- structural criteria accounting for the low ductility of W in a finger-type modular divertor constrain the maximum incident heat fluxes to values well below the ITER specifications, and those based on considering only the RT demonstrate that integrated thermal-fluid and elastic structural performance evaluation are required for accurate assessment of divertor performance. This novel analysis of the T-tube considers how nonuniform and transient incident heat fluxes affect its thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance, as well as the effect of volumetric heating, which can be as great as 27% of the power incident on the divertor surface. The W tile of the T-tube, with its relatively large plasma-facing area of ~15 cm 2 , will likely experience significant spatial variations in incident heat flux. This work therefore assesses whether steady-state incident heat flux profiles with a peak of 10 MW/m 2 and maximum heat flux gradients of 200 MW/m 2 per m exceed the structural limits imposed by the ITER elastic SDC-IC and the maximum RT over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The effect of transient heat fluxes typical of plasma detachment and reattachment from the target plate due, for example, to gas injection are also evaluated

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fast Emulation of Expensive Simulations using Approximate Gaussian Processes [Slides]

Nuclear Computational Low-Energy Initiative (NUCLEI) collaboration uses Density Functional Theory (DFT) simulations to predict the structure and binding energies of nuclei over a wide range of proton (Z) and neutron (N) numbers. The DFT simulations utilize a particular parameterization of a Skyrme energy density functional called UNEDF1 which depends on 12 free parameters that must be fit to data (M Kortelainen et al 2014). Fitting involves comparing (e.g.) predicted binding energies of nuclei to experimentally measured values. We use only binding energies as observables, but DFT with UNEDF1 will predict structure (shape) observables as well. In this work, assessing the capability of approximate GP emulators to balance emulator accuracy with computational speed to facilitate improved UNEDF1 calibration. Sparse GPs are straightforward to train and accurate. Calibration is not straightforward with MCMC (using MH or HMC/NUTS). We produced reusable software for continuing and building on this work as well as accessing and using Darwin cluster compute resources

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Slow Wake Recovery and Low Turbulence Behind Wind Farms Parameterized in Mesoscale Simulations

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models equipped with wind-farm parameterizations (WFPs) can simulate cluster wake effects affecting downstream wind farms in both onshore and offshore environments. This study evaluates wake recovery behind a wind farm represented by the NWP-WFP approach in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using either the Fitch et al. (2012) or Ma et al. (2022a, b) WFPs. Results are benchmarked against large-eddy simulations (LES) of an idealized offshore wind farm with aligned and staggered layouts under neutral atmospheric stability. Near-farm wake recovery is underestimated in NWP-WFP simulations due to its representation on a coarse mesoscale grid. This limitation leads to slow wake recovery through two interconnected mechanisms: (i) spatial gradients in the wind velocity field are weaker compared to LES and (ii) turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) remains low not because of excessive dissipation but due to insufficient shear production caused by these weakened gradients. For the scenario considered here, a wind-speed bias develops in the near-farm wake and persists into the far wake. Differences between the NWP-WFP simulations and LES emerge within a short distance downstream of the farm exit, where the mesoscale simulations recover too slowly. This reduced recovery contributes approximately 0.15-0.50 m s-1 to the near-farm wind-speed bias. The bias established in this region is not subsequently compensated for downstream but instead propagates into the far wake, where wind-speed differences of approximately 0.4-0.6 m s-1 remain up to 50 km downstream. Higher-resolution mesoscale simulations partially reduce this bias. Increasing turbine-added TKE or including subgrid wake effects provides additional improvement, but neither fully addresses the underlying cause. The slow wake recovery is not caused by limitations of the WFPs themselves, as it also occurs outside their region of influence, and adding subgrid wake effects does not significantly impact recovery. Rather, the slow wake recovery is a consequence of mesoscale flow representation. This behavior is not limited to regions downstream of the wind farm but is less visible within the farm, where wake recovery occurs simultaneously with turbine-induced momentum extraction. These results highlight the need for improved representations of wake recovery both within and downstream of wind farms. While enhanced subgrid modeling, shear-driven TKE production, and refined WFP formulations may improve intra-farm dynamics, accurately capturing near-farm wake recovery downstream remains challenging, as WFPs do not act in this region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-dimensional parametric study of variability in multi-phase flow dynamics during geologic CO 2 sequestration accelerated with machine learning

Successful geologic CO 2 storage projects depend on numerical simulations to predict reservoir performance during site selection, injection verification, and post-injection monitoring phases of the project. These numerical simulations solve non-linear sets of coupled partial differential equations, while accounting for multi-phase fluid dynamics on the basis of constitutive equations that are embedded into the solution scheme. As a consequence, individual simulations often require tens to hundreds of hours to complete on high-performance computing clusters. Moreover, laboratory experiments reveal that parametric functions for capillary pressure and relative permeability exhibit substantial variability, even within the same rock type. This combination of computational expense and wide-ranging parametric variability means that there remains substantial uncertainty in the behavior of multi-phase CO 2 -water systems, particularly in the context of feedbacks between relative permeability and capillary pressure. To bridge this knowledge gap, here we develop a novel workflow that utilizes physics-based numerical simulation to train an artificial neural network (ANN) emulator for interrogating the multivariate parameter space that governs both capillary pressure and relative permeability. With this approach, the ANN is trained to emulate both fluid pressure distribution and CO 2 saturation, which are then interrogated quantitatively to generate parametric response surface mappings with high-fidelity resolution. Results from this study initially show that capillary entry pressure is the dominant control on both CO 2 plume geometry and fluid pressure propagation when considering the combined effects of capillary pressure and relative permeability, particularly when phase interference is low and residual CO 2 saturation is high. Moreover, the ANN emulator provides tremendous computational speed-up by computing 2691 individual simulations in several minutes; whereas, the same simulation ensemble would have required ~3 years of simulation time using only physics-based simulation methods (25,000 times speed up).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Predictability of Mixed-Phase Clouds and Aerosol Interactions in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with ARM Measurements

The objective of this project is to improve the simulation and predictability of mixed-phase clouds and aerosol interactions in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) through comparisons with the DOE ARM observations. There are four major goals of the proposed study: (1) Improve the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds; (2) Develop a long-term multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud dataset; (3) Test the performance of improved ice microphysics in CESM-CAM5 with the ARM data; and (4) Examine mixed-phase cloud microphysics-aerosol-dynamics-radiation interactions in CESM-CAM5. In this project, we have (1) Improved the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds that include ice nucleation, ice depositional growth through the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process, feedbacks between cloud microphysics, dynamics and radiation, and provides links to aerosol properties in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)-Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5); (2) Developed a long-term multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud dataset. The mixed-phase cloud retrieval algorithms are improved by refining the phase determinations and ice number concentration retrievals. A multi-year mixed-phase cloud observation dataset (1999-2004; October 2013-February 2017) is regenerated at the ARM Barrow site with the improved algorithms. The dataset has been used in the global model evaluation to improve the model parameterizations; (3) Tested the performance of improved ice microphysics in CESM-CAM5 with the ARM data. CESM-CAM5 is run in the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) and in the single-column model (SCM) mode to facilitate comparison with ARM observations. Multi-year CAPT simulations of seasonal variations of cloud microphysical properties, cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP), cloud longwave and shortwave forcings, cloud occurrence frequency are evaluated against the ARM multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud retrievals; and (4) Examined mixed-phase cloud microphysics-aerosol-dynamics-radiation interactions in CESM-CAM5 that include the impacts of different ice nucleation mechanisms, sensitivity to dust IN concentration, treatment of the WBF process on mixed-phase cloud properties. Aerosol effect on mixed-phase clouds through the liquid phase (droplet activation) and ice phase processes (e.g., the glaciation indirect effect) is investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-Scale Welding Process Simulation by GPU Parallelized Computing

The computational design of industrially relevant welded structures is extremely time consuming due to coupled physics and high nonlinearity. Previously, most welding distortion and residual stress simulations have been limited to small coupons and reduced order (from three-dimensional [3D] to two-dimensional [2D]), or inherent strain approximations were used for large structures. In this current study, an explicit finite element code based on a graphics processing unit was utilized to perform 3D transient thermomechanical simulation of structural components during welding. Laser brazing of aluminum alloy panels as representative of automotive manufacturing scenarios was simulated to predict out-of-plane distortion under different clamping conditions. The predicted deformation pattern and magnitude were validated by laser scanning data of physical assemblies. In addition, the code was used to investigate residual stresses developed during multipass arc welding of a nuclear industry pressurizer surge nozzle and subsequent welding repair where a 3D simulation was necessary. Taking the experimental data as reference, the 3D model predicted better residual stress distribution than a typical 2D asymmetrical model. Stress evolution in welding repair was also presented and discussed in this study. Furthermore, the efficient numerical model made it feasible to use integrated computational welding engineering to simulate welding processes for large-scale structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transient Photocurrent From High-Voltage Vertical GaN Diodes Irradiated With Electrons: Experiments and Simulations

Radiation-hard high-voltage vertical GaN p-n diodes are being developed for use in power electronics subjected to ionizing radiation. Here, we present a comparison of the measured and simulated photocurrent response of diodes exposed to ionizing irradiation with 70 keV and 20 MeV electrons at dose rates in the range of 1.4x10 7 - 5.0x10 8 rad(GaN)/s. The simulations correctly predict the trend in measured steady-state photocurrent and agree with experimental results within a factor of 2. Furthermore, simulations of the transient photocurrent response to dose rates with uniform and non-uniform ionization depth profiles uncover the physical processes involved that cannot be otherwise experimentally observed due to orders of magnitude larger RC time constant of the test circuit. The simulations were performed using an Exploratory Physics Development code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The code offers the capability to include defect physics under more general conditions, not included in commercially available software packages, extending the applicability of the simulations to different types of radiation environments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of double-Weyl points in the iron-based superconductor CaKFe 4 As 4

Employing a combination of symmetry analysis, low-energy modeling, and ab initio simulations, we predict the presence of magnetic-field-induced Weyl points close to the Fermi level in CaKFe 4 As 4 . Depending on the relative strengths of the magnetic field and of the spin-orbit coupling, the Weyl fermions can carry a topological charge of ±1 or ±2, making CaKFe 4 As 4 a rare realization of a double-Weyl semimetal. Here, we further predict experimental manifestations of these Weyl points, both in bulk properties, such as the anomalous Hall effect, and in surface properties, such as the emergence of prominent Fermi arcs. Because CaKFe 4 As 4 displays unconventional fully gapped superconductivity below 30 K, our findings open a route to investigate the interplay between superconductivity and Weyl fermions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to an Agent-Based Model of Pantoea

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful simulation technique which describes a complex dynamic system based on its interacting constituent entities. While the flexibility of ABM enables broad application, the complexity of real-world models demands intensive computing resources and computational time; however, a metamodel may be constructed to gain insight at less computational expense. Here, we developed a model in NetLogo to describe the growth of a microbial population consisting of Pantoea . We applied 13 parameters that defined the model and actively changed seven of the parameters to modulate the evolution of the population curve in response to these changes. We efficiently performed more than 3,000 simulations using a Python wrapper, NL4Py . Upon evaluation of the correlation between the active parameters and outputs by random forest regression, we found that the parameters which define the depth of medium and glucose concentration affect the population curves significantly. Subsequently, we constructed a metamodel, a dense neural network, to predict the simulation outputs from the active parameters and found that it achieves high prediction accuracy, reaching an R 2 coefficient of determination value up to 0.92. Our approach of using a combination of ABM with random forest regression and neural network reduces the number of required ABM simulations. The simplified and refined metamodels may provide insights into the complex dynamic system before their transition to more sophisticated models that run on high-performance computing systems. The ultimate goal is to build a bridge between simulation and experiment, allowing model validation by comparing the simulated data to experimental data in microbiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-precision Galaxy Clustering Predictions from Small-volume Hydrodynamical Simulations via Control Variates

Abstract Cosmological simulations of galaxy formation are an invaluable tool for understanding galaxy formation and its impact on cosmological parameter inference from large-scale structures. However, their high computational cost is a significant obstacle for running simulations that probe cosmological volumes comparable to those analyzed by contemporary large-scale structure experiments. In this work, we explore the possibility of obtaining high-precision galaxy clustering predictions from small-volume hydrodynamical simulations such as MillenniumTNG and FLAMINGO via control variates. In this approach, the hydrodynamical full-physics simulation is paired with a matched low-resolution gravity-only simulation. By learning the galaxy–halo connection from the hydrodynamical simulation and applying it to the gravity-only counterpart, one obtains a galaxy population that closely mimics the one in the more expensive simulation. One can then construct an estimator of galaxy clustering that combines the clustering amplitudes in the small-volume hydrodynamical and gravity-only simulations with clustering amplitudes in a large-volume gravity-only simulation. Depending on the galaxy sample, clustering statistic, and scale, this galaxy clustering estimator can have an effective volume of up to around 100 times the volume of the original hydrodynamical simulation in the nonlinear regime. With this approach, we can construct galaxy clustering predictions from existing simulations that are precise enough for mock analyses of next-generation large-scale structure surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Doytcheva, Alexandra (ORCID:0009000111254888)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dissolution of a cylindrical disk in Hele-Shaw flow: a conformal-mapping approach

Here we apply conformal mapping to find the evolving shapes of a dissolving cylinder in a potential flow. Similar equations can be used to describe melting in a flowing liquid phase. Results are compared with microfluidic experiments and numerical simulations. Shapes predicted by conformal mapping agree almost perfectly with experimental observations, after a modest (20 %) rescaling of the time. Finite-volume simulations show that the differences with experiment are connected to the underlying assumptions of the analytical model: potential flow and diffusion-limited dissolution. Approximate solutions of the equations describing the evolution of the shape of the undissolved solid can be derived from a Laurent expansion of the mapping function from the unit circle. Asymptotic expressions for the evolution of the area of the disk and the shift in its centre of mass have been derived at low and high Péclet number. Analytic approximations to the leading-order Laurent coefficients provide additional insight into the mechanisms underlying pore-scale dissolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive Design of Hybrid Improper Ferroelectric Double Perovskite Oxides

The computational design of suitable multiferroic double perovskite oxides requires finding materials that exhibit sizable polarization, magnetization, and coupling between them. Oxides with the chemical formula of AA'BB'O 6 with building blocks of ABO 3 single perovskite oxides in centrosymmetric Pnma symmetry are strong candidates that have been reported to satisfy such criteria. The system lowers to noncentrosymmetric, polar P2 1 symmetry if A/A' layered and B/B' rocksalt cation orderings are imposed. A detailed compositional search over a variety of chemical spaces followed by evaluating their polarization may lead to the identification of more of these compounds with ferroelectric ordering. The standard density functional theory practices to estimate polarization within the Berry phase formalism require the systems to be perfectly insulating. The number of compounds that can be evaluated using this method is therefore limited. In this work, we introduce a predictive learning strategy based on importance sampling to build a series of machine learning models using results from first-principles simulations to predict polarization and the corresponding switching barrier. The geometry-driven features related to charge states and cationic radii play key roles in predicting the switching barrier with complementary contributions from the key structural mode-based order parameters. These modes become important to draw reasonable predictions of polarization components from machine learning models. In conclusion, our predictive models identify candidates with high polarizations and low switching barriers from a pool of double perovskite oxides, suitable for future investigation for their potential applications in spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling intrinsic galaxy alignment in the MICE simulation

The intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies is potentially a major limitation in deriving cosmological constraints from weak lensing surveys. In order to investigate this effect, we assign intrinsic shapes and orientations to galaxies in the light-cone output of the MICE simulation, spanning ~ 5000 deg 2 and reaching redshift Z = 1.4. This assignment is based on a semianalytic IA model that uses photometric properties of galaxies as well as the spin and shape of their host halos. Advancing on previous work, we include more realistic distributions of galaxy shapes and a luminosity-dependent galaxy-halo alignment. The IA model parameters are calibrated against COSMOS and BOSS LOWZ observations. The null detection of IA in observations of blue galaxies is accounted for by setting random orientations for these objects. We compare the two-point alignment statistics measured in the simulation against predictions from the analytical IA models NLA and TATT over a wide range of scales, redshifts, and luminosities for red and blue galaxies separately. We find that both models fit the measurements well at scales above 8h -1 Mpc, while TATT outperforms NLA at smaller scales. The IA parameters derived from our fits are in broad agreement with various observational constraints from red galaxies. Finally, we build a realistic source sample, mimicking DES Year 3 observations and use it to predict the IA contamination to the observed shear statistics. We find this prediction to be within the measurement uncertainty, which might be a consequence of the random alignment of blue galaxies in the simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stability and Performance of an Undersea Kite Operating in a Turbulent Flow Field

In this paper, we examine the effects of flow disturbances resulting from turbulence on the dynamic behavior of an underwater energy-harvesting kite system that executes periodic figure-8 flight. Due to the periodic nature of the kite’s operation, we begin by assessing orbital stability using the Floquet analysis and stroboscopic intersection analysis of a Poincaré section, with the former analysis performed on a simplified “unifoil” model and the latter performed on a six-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF)/flexible tether model. With periodic stability established, a frequency-domain analysis based on a linearization about the kite’s path is used to predict the quality of flight path tracking as a function of the turbulence frequency. To validate the accuracy of these simulation-based predictions under flow disturbances, we compare the predictions of the kite’s behavior against the results of small-scale tow testing experiments performed in a controlled pool environment.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oil Recovery Prediction for Polymer Flood Field Test of Heavy Oil on Alaska North Slope Via Machine Assisted Reservoir Simulation

The first ever polymer flood field pilot to enhance the recovery of heavy oils on the Alaska North Slope is ongoing. This study constructs and calibrates a reservoir simulation model to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding, as indicated by a significant decrease in water cut. Later, transmissibility contrasts are reinstated to replicate a water surge event observed in one of the producing wells during polymer flooding. This event may represent decreased injection conformance from fracture overextension; its anticipated occurrence in the other production well is included in the final forecast. The definition of polymer retention in the simulator incorporates the tailing effect reported in laboratory studies; this tailing effect is useful to the simultaneous history match of producing water cut and produced polymer concentration. The top 24 best-matched simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. The final forecast clearly demonstrates that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone. This exercise displays that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Therefore, caution is recommended in using basic waterflood simulation models to scope potential enhanced oil recovery projects.

Keith, Cody Douglas↗