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At least 433 records · Page 24

Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

Pesnell, W. D.↗

Constraining Viewing Geometries of Pulsars with Single-Peaked Gamma-ray Profiles Using a Multiwavelength Approach

Since the launch of the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi spacecraft in June 2008, the number of observed gamma-ray pulsars has increased dramatically. A large number of these are also observed at radio frequencies. Constraints on the viewing geometries of 5 of 6 gamma-ray pulsars exhibiting single-peaked gamma-ray profiles were derived using high-quality radio polarization data [1]. We obtain independent constraints on the viewing geometries of 6 by using a geometric emission code to model the Fermi LAT and radio light curves (LCs). We find fits for the magnetic inclination and observer angles by searching the solution space by eye. Our results are generally consistent with those previously obtained [1], although we do find small differences in some cases. We will indicate how the gamma-ray and radio pulse shapes as well as their relative phase lags lead to constraints in the solution space. Values for the flux correction factor (f(omega)) corresponding to the fits are also derived (with errors).

Seyffert, A. S.↗

Engineering Evaluation of International Low Impact Docking System Latch Hooks

The international Low Impact Docking System (iLIDS) provides a structural arrangement that allows for visiting vehicles to dock with the International Space Station (ISS) (Fig 1). The iLIDS docking units are mechanically joined together by a series of active and passive latch hooks. In order to preserve docking capability at the existing Russian docking interfaces, the iLIDS latch hooks are required to conform to the existing Russian design. The latch hooks are classified as being fail-safe. Since the latch hooks are fail-safe, the hooks are not fracture critical and a fatigue based service life assessment will satisfy the structural integrity requirements. Constant amplitude fatigue testing to failure on four sets of active/passive iLIDS latch hooks was performed at load magnitudes of 10, 11, and 12 kips. Failure analysis of the hook fatigue failures identified multi-site fatigue initiation that was effectively centered about the hook mid-plane (consistent with the 3D model results). The fatigue crack initiation distribution implies that the fatigue damage accumulation effectively results in a very low aspect ratio surface crack (which can be simulated as thru-thickness crack). Fatigue damage progression resulted in numerous close proximity fatigue crack initiation sites. It was not possible to determine if fatigue crack coalescence occurs during cyclic loading or as result of the fast fracture response. The presence of multiple fatigue crack initiation sites on different planes will result in the formation of ratchet marks as the cracks coalesce. Once the stable fatigue crack becomes unstable and the fast fracture advances across the remaining ligament and the plane stress condition at a free-surface will result in failure along a 45 deg. shear plane (slant fracture) and the resulting inclined edge is called a shear lip. The hook thickness on the plane of fatigue crack initiation is 0.787". The distance between the shear lips on this plane was on the order of 0.48" and it was effectively centered about the mid-plane of the section. The numerous ratchet marks between the shear lips on the fracture initiation plane are indicative of multiple fatigue initiation sites within this region. The distribution of the fatigue damage about the centerline of the hook is consistent with the analytical results that demonstrate peak stress/strain response at the mid-plane that decreases in the direction of the hook outer surfaces. Scanning electron microscope images of the failed sections detected fatigue crack striations in close proximity to the free surface of the hook radius. These findings were documented at three locations on the fracture surface : 1) adjacent to the left shear lip, 2) adjacent to the right shear lip, and 3) near the centerline of the section. The features of the titanium fracture surface did not allow for a determination of a critical crack size via identification of the region where the fatigue crack propagation became unstable. The fracture based service life projections where benchmarked with strain-life analyses. The strainrange response in the hook radius was defined via the correlated finite element models and the modified method of universal slopes was incorporated to define the strain-life equation for the titanium alloy. The strain-life assessment confirmed that the fracture based projections were reasonable for the loading range of interest. Based upon the analysis and component level fatigue test data a preliminary service life capability for the iLIDS active and passive hooks of 2 lifetimes is projected (includes a scatter factor of 4).

Martinez, J.↗

The 2012 July 23 Backside Eruption: An Extreme Energetic Particle Event?

The backside coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 July 23 had a short Sun-to-Earth shock transit time (18.5 hr).The associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event had a greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaking at approximately 5000 pfu, and the energetic storm particle event was an order of magnitude larger, making it the most intense event in the space era at these energies. By a detailed analysis of the CME, shock, and SEP characteristics, we find that the July 23 event is consistent with a high-energy SEP event (accelerating particles to giga-electron volt energies). The times of maximum and fluence spectra in the range 10100 MeV were very hard, similar to those of ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. We found a hierarchical relationship between the CME initial speeds and the fluence spectral indices: CMEs with low initial speeds had SEP events with the softest spectra, while those with the highest initial speeds had SEP events with the hardest spectra. CMEs attaining intermediate speeds result in moderately hard spectra. The July 23 event was in the group of hard-spectrum events. During the July 23 event, the shock speed greater than (2000 km s(exp -1), the initial acceleration (approximately 1.70 km s(exp -2), and the shock-formation height (approximately 1.5 solar radii)were all typical of GLE events. The associated type II burst had emission components from meter to kilometer wavelengths, suggesting a strong shock. These observations confirm that the 2012 July 23 event is likely to be an extreme event in terms of the energetic particles it accelerated.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

An experimental study of sound radiation from a subsonic jet in simulated motion

A free-jet anechoic facility is used for quantitative determination of the effect of motion on the pure jet mixing noise from subsonic jets. The farfield measurements obtained outside the free jet are subjected to amplitude and angle corrections due to free-jet shear layer refraction; in addition, corrections are made to account for the distributed nature of the jet noise source as a function of frequency. The corrected results, which provide the changes in the jet mixing noise as a result of simulated jet motion, are presented for a range of jet velocities with a fixed free-jet velocity. Comparisons are made between the findings obtained and those related to other simulation and flight measurements. The results indicate that the effect of motion is to reduce jet mixing noise at all angles of measurement, and the reduction is broadband with the largest magnitude occurring around the spectral peak.

Yu, J. C.↗

The 35 day dependence of the pulse shape of Hercules X-1

An interesting finding regarding the pulse shape change of Hercules X-1 is reported. By inspecting Her X-1 observations made by various detectors over various epochs, it is found that during the decay phase of the 35-day cycle high state the first-peak flux (of the double-peaked main pulse) is attenuated more than the second-peak flux. Accepting that the 35-day cycle is a consequence of the wobbling of the accretion disk, a model is proposed in which the first-peak emission and the second-peak emission emanate from two different emitting regions (two magnetic poles). According to this model, during the decay phase of the 35-day cycle the column density of the coronal gas along the line of sight to the first-peak emission region is greater than that to the second-peak emission region. Thus the Compton scattering attenuation of the first peak is larger at a given moment during the decay phase. Implications of the model are discussed.

Bai, T.↗

On the spectra of type-III solar radio bursts observed at low frequencies

The spectra of strong bursts observed at low frequencies by OGO-5 during 1968-1970 are presented. They usually exhibit an intense main peak between 100 kHz and 1 MHz, and sometimes a less intense secondary peak between 1 and 3.5 MHz. Main peaks of 10 to the -12th W per sq m per Hz or more were obtained in very strong events, but because of antenna calibration problems those could be one or two orders of magnitude too high. Recently published work supports the finding that type III bursts at low frequencies can be at least four orders of magnitude more intense than at ground-based frequencies of observation. It is found that the energy received at the earth increases with decreasing frequency approximately as f to the -n, where n is between 3 and 4.

Alvarez, H.↗

Probing the large-scale velocity field with clusters of galaxies

What is the role of clusters of galaxies in probing the large-scale velocity field of the universe? We investigate the distribution of peculiar velocities of clusters of galaxies in the popular low-density (omega = 0.3) flat cold dark matter (CDM) cosmological model, which best fits many large-scale structure observations. An omega = 1 CDM model is also studied for comparison. We find that clusters of galaxies are efficient tracers of the large-scale velocity field. The clusters exhibit a Maxwellian distribution of peculiar velocities, as expected from Gaussian initial density fluctuations. The cluster three-dimensional velocity distribution for the omega = 0.3 model peaks at nu approximately greater than 400 km/s and extends to high velocities of nu approximately 1200 km/s. The rms peculiar velocity of the clusters is 440 km/s. Approximately 10% of all model clusters move with high peculiar velocities nu greater or equal to 700 km/s. The observed velocity distribution of clusters of galaxies is compared with the predictions from cosmological models. The observed data exhibit a larger velocity tail than seen in the model simulations; however, due to the large observational uncertainties, the data are consistent at approximately equal to 3 sigma level with the odel predictions, and with a Gaussian initial density field. The large peculiar velocities reported for some clusters of galaxies (nu approximately greater than 3000 km/s) are likely to be overestimated, if the current model is viable.

Bahcall, Neta A.↗

Star formation thresholds in H II galaxies with H I companions

We present high resolution Very Large Array (VLA) 21 cm line observations of five H II galaxies combined with previous lower resolution data from Taylor et al. (1993) and optical broadband R and H-alpha Charge Coupled Device (CCD) images of the systems. Following Kennicutt (1989) we calculated the threshold H I surface density for star formation for the H II galaxies and compared the location and shape of this predicted threshold density contour with the optical shape of the galaxies. We find generally a good correlation between these two, although a constant density contour of 10(exp 21)/sq cm fits the images of the optical galaxies equally as well. The H I synthesis observations have revealed that the H II galaxies have sharply peaked H I radial profiles, in contrast to the relatively flattened profiles of low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies, suggesting that large central concentrations of gas are a necessary condition for the occurrence of bursts of massive star formation seen in H II galaxies. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that LSB galaxies represent the quiescent phase of H II galaxies, if a suitable mechanism exists (such as galaxy interactions) to cause H I to concentrate at the center of LSB galaxies prior to the onset of the burst of star formation. However, it is noted that the H II galaxies (and dwarf galaxies in general) span a relatively large range in mass. Since many properties correlate with mass (e.g., gas mass fraction), we point out that great care needs to be taken in choosing the proper comparison samples of LSB and H II galaxies.

Taylor, Christopher L.↗

A study of the physics and chemistry of TMC-1

We present a comprehensive study of the physical and chemical conditions along the TMC-1 ridge. Temperatures were estimated from observations of CH3CCH, NH3, and CO. Densities were obtained from a multitransition study of HC3N. The values of the density and temperature allow column densities for 13 molecular species to be estimated from statistical equilibrium calculations, using observations of rarer isotopomers where possible, to minimize opacity effects. The most striking abundance variations relative to HCO+ along the ridge were seen for HC3N, CH3CCH, and SO, while smaller variations were seen in CS, C2H, and HCN. On the other hand, the NH3, HNC, and N2H+ abundances relative to HCO+ were determined to be constant, indicating that the so-called NH3 peak in TMC-1 is probably a peak in the ammonia column density rather than a relative abundance peak. In contrast, the well-studied cyanopolyyne peak is most likely due to an enhancement in the abundance of long-chain carbon species. Comparisons of the derived abundances to the results of time-dependent chemical models show good overall agreement for chemical timescales around 10(5) yr. We find that the observed abundance gradients can be explained either by a small variation in the chemical timescale from 1.2 x 10(5) to 1.8 x 10(5) yr or by a factor of 2 change in the density along the ridge. Alternatively, a variation in the C/O ratio from 0.4 to 0.5 along the ridge produces an abundance gradient similar to that observed.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Calbindin-D(28k) controls [Ca(2+)](i) and insulin release. Evidence obtained from calbindin-d(28k) knockout mice and beta cell lines

The role of the calcium-binding protein, calbindin-D(28k) in potassium/depolarization-stimulated increases in the cytosolic free Ca(2+) concentration ([Ca(2+)](i)) and insulin release was investigated in pancreatic islets from calbindin-D(28k) nullmutant mice (knockouts; KO) or wild type mice and beta cell lines stably transfected and overexpressing calbindin. Using single islets from KO mice and stimulation with 45 mM KCl, the peak of [Ca(2+)](i) was 3.5-fold greater in islets from KO mice compared with wild type islets (p < 0.01) and [Ca(2+)](i) remained higher during the plateau phase. In addition to the increase in [Ca(2+)](i) in response to KCl there was also a significant increase in insulin release in islets isolated from KO mice. Evidence for modulation by calbindin of [Ca(2+)](i) and insulin release was also noted using beta cell lines. Rat calbindin was stably expressed in betaTC-3 and betaHC-13 cells. In response to depolarizing concentrations of K(+), insulin release was decreased by 45-47% in calbindin expressing betaTC cells and was decreased by 70-80% in calbindin expressing betaHC cells compared with insulin release from vector transfected betaTC or betaHC cells (p < 0.01). In addition, the K(+)-stimulated intracellular calcium peak was markedly inhibited in calbindin expressing betaHC cells compared with vector transfected cells (225 nM versus 1,100 nM, respectively). Buffering of the depolarization-induced rise in [Ca(2+)](i) was also observed in calbindin expressing betaTC cells. In summary, our findings, using both isolated islets from calbindin-D(28k) KO mice and beta cell lines, establish a role for calbindin in the modulation of depolarization-stimulated insulin release and suggest that calbindin can control the rate of insulin release via regulation of [Ca(2+)](i).

Non-NASA Center↗

Ionization Efficiency in the Dayside Ionosphere of Mars: Structure and Variability

Ionization efficiency, the ratio between photoelectron impact ionization and primary photoionization, is an important quantity from the perspective of ionospheric energy balance and as a quantity to be parameterized for use in global simulations. We investigate ionization efficiency using MAVEN in situ measurements of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux, suprathermal electron flux, and neutral density. Its behavior with respect to pressure and solar zenith angle (SZA) is explained by ionization cross-sections and photoabsorption, plus photoelectron transport near the terminator. We find similar ionization efficiencies between the species CO 2 , O, N 2 , and CO, with Argon ∼40% higher, explained largely by its higher ionization potential. Efficiency depends positively on solar activity, increasing by ∼50–100% (depending on season) from low to moderate solar EUV levels, before flattening at higher EUV levels. EUV spectral hardening appears to be responsible for only ∼15% of this increase, the remainder best explained by variability in neutral composition. We find a negligible dependence of ionization efficiency on the strength and direction of crustal magnetic fields. Efficiencies agree poorly with the theoretical model of Nicholson et al. (2009), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2009.15463.x, possibly reflecting differences in model versus measured solar EUV spectrum and neutral densities. We fit the data to the empirical parameterization of Mendillo et al. (2011), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011ja016865 but find that a single fit cannot capture ionization efficiency behavior across all dayside SZA values. We believe that an empirical model of Mars ionization efficiency will require MAVEN data and validated transport modeling to reach to sufficiently high pressures to capture Mars' photochemical peaks M1 and M2

Robert Lillis↗

Energetic lunar nighttime ion events

The suprathermal ion detector experiment regularly observes ion events normally ranging from 250 eV/q to 1000 eV/q all through the lunar night. These ion events occur most often 2 to 3 days prior to the sunrise terminator. There is also a secondary activity peak 3 to 4 days after local sunset on the moon. The events are normally of 4 hr or less in duration, and the integral flux is 1 million ions per sq cm/sec/sr. This article discussed the character of these events and presents preliminary findings of a detailed study on this subject.

Schneider, H. E.↗

Optimization of active control systems to suppress flutter and minimize turbulence response

A method for optimizing an active control system which will suppress flutter and minimize the response of a lifting surface to atmospheric turbulence is presented. A mathematical search method is developed which will find a control law which will cause an active control system to flutter at a specified freestream velocity, air density, and Mach number. With the flutter velocity of the system held constant, the control law is then modified in such a way that the peak output power spectral density function of the angular response of a lifting surface (as a result of atmospheric turbulence) is minimized for a specified flight velocity which is less than the flutter velocity. The von Karman generalized power spectrum for the transverse components of turbulence is used in an example problem to increase the flutter velocity and minimize the turbulence response of a simplified delta-wing model which has leading and trailing edge control surfaces.

Rudisill, C. S.↗

The mass and dynamics of cD clusters with cooling flows. 1: ROSAT observations of A 496

As part of a program to determine the mass distribution of cD galaxy clusters with cooling flows, we obtained a ROSAT image of the cluster A 496. The image reveals sharply peaked emission centered on the cD galaxy. Both the peaked cooling flow emission and the more extended emission filling the cluster are centered on the cD galaxy to within 15 sec . The surface brightness profile is consistent with previous Einstein observations. We measure spatially resolved spectra for the X-ray emission, and find a significant decline in temperature in the innermost 2 min to 4 min. We also find a gradient in absorption due to cold neutral gas, with an excess above the neutral hydrogen column due to our own galaxy in the inner 4 min. The excess absorption, however, is far below previously reported values. The surface brightness profile and the spatially resolved temperature profile are indicative of a cooling flow in the cluster. Cooling flow models fit to the X-ray spectra in the innermost 2 min yield a mass flow rate of 59 solar mass yr(exp -1). The spatially resolved temperature and surface brightness profiles are used to derive the mass distribution of the cluster both in the hot, X-ray emitting plasma and in the unseen dark matter that binds the cluster. To a radius of 1.0 Mpc we find a total cluster mass of 3.44 x 10(exp 14) solar mass ; the X-ray emitting gas mass of 0.75 x 10(exp 14) solar mass to this radius comprises 16 percent of the total cluster mass.

Kriss, Gerard A.↗

A multisource limb flare observed at multiple radio wavelengths

A flare with several radio sources occurred on the solar limb at 2155 UT on 1989 June 20. It was observed by the Very Large Array (VLA) and the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO). The VLA data consisted of images at 1.4 GHz, while OVRO provided spectral and spatial information over the range 1-15 GHz. We develop a new gyrosynchrotron model to analyze the sources observed at flare peak. This model differs from many previous ones in that it contains spatial variations of both the magnetic field and accelerated particle density. It uses a new gyrosynchrotron approximation which is valid at very low harmonics of the gyrofrequency. For the first time we find that the cause of the change of microwave source size with frequency in the event studied was due primarily to the spatial variation of the accelerated electron density. This is contrary to the common assumption that the variation in size is due to a nonuniform magnetic field. We also investigate a polarized source which brightened later in the flare, finding that it could have been due to plasma radiation or gyrosynchrotron emission.

Kucera, T. A.↗

Statistical Properties of SGR 1806-20 Bursts

We present statistics of SGR 1806-20 bursts, combining 290 events detected with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer/Proportional Counter Array, 111 events detected with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment, and 134 events detected with the International Cometary, Explorer. We find that the fluence distribution of bursts observed with each instrument are well described by power laws with indices 1.43, 1.76, and 1.67, respectively. The distribution of time intervals between successive bursts from SGR 1806-20 is described by a lognormal function with a peak at 103 s. There is no correlation between the burst intensity and either the waiting times until the next burst or the time elapsed since the previous burst. In all these statistical properties, SGR 1806-20 bursts resemble a self-organized critical system, similar to earthquakes and solar flares. Our results thus support the hypothesis that the energy source for soft gamma repeater bursts is crustquakes due to the evolving, strong magnetic field of the neutron star, rather than any accretion or nuclear power.

Gogus, Ersin↗

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗