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At least 433 records · Page 24

An Ocean-Atmosphere Simulation for Studying Air-Sea Interactions

During the past few years the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have produced, respectively, global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing. These simulations have proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Nevertheless, a key limitation of these "nature" simulations is the lack of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, which limits their usefulness for studying air-sea interactions and for designing observing missions to study these interactions. To remove this limitation, we aim to perform a coupled simulation using the km-scale GEOS atmosphere and the km-scale MIT ocean models. The initial attempt at the km-scale coupled simulation resulted in computational issues which will be presented here. As a preliminary step towards the km-scale objective, we present results from a high resolution but not yet km-scale simulation, wherein we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. A particular focus of the comparisons is the differences in interactions between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ocean surface wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations. We discuss observed and modeled high temporal variability (~days) SST-wind cycle and how it is represented in the different systems. A mechanism for the cycle, which is driven by SST-wind feedback, is proposed.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Ocean Color Instrument Integration and Testing

This paper describes the plans, flows, key facilities, components and equipment necessary to fully integrate, functionally test, qualify and calibrate the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) on the Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds, and oceans Ecosystem (PACE) observatory. PACE is currently in the design phase of mission development. It is scheduled to launch in 2022, extending and improving NASA's twenty-year record of satellite observations of global ocean biology, aerosols and clouds. PACE will advance the assessment of ocean health by measuring the distribution of phytoplankton, which are small plants and algae that sustain the marine food web. It will also continue systematic records of key atmospheric variables associated with air quality and the Earth's climate. PACE's primary sensor, the OCI, is a highly advanced optical spectrometer that will be used to measure properties of light over portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. It will enable continuous measurement of light at finer wavelength resolution than previous NASA satellite sensors, extending key system ocean color data records for climate studies. The color of the ocean is determined by the interaction of sunlight with substances or particles present in seawater such as chlorophyll. By monitoring global phytoplankton distribution and abundance with unprecedented detail, the OCI will contribute to a better understanding of the complex systems that drive ocean ecology and it's impacts on global fisheries. This paper will focus on the Integration and Test (I&T) activities for OCI while it is at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The OCI integration consists of assembly and alignment of the rotating telescope, electronics box integration, fixed deck assembly integration, thermal systems integration and the final assembly and testing. This I&T phase will be followed by the OCI calibration and characterization, environmental tests which include electromagnetic interference (EMI)/electromagnetic compatibility (EMC), vibration with sine sweep, acoustics, shock, thermal balance, thermal vacuum, mass properties and center of gravity. This paper will briefly discuss OCI shipment and delivery to the spacecraft vendor for observatory level I&T as well as some launch preparation activities.

Petro, Susanna↗

Sea Surface Salinity Distribution in the Southern Ocean as Observed from Space

Large-scale spatial and temporal variabilities of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Southern Ocean from 2011 to 2017 were studied using products derived from microwave sensors on board Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) satellites. Four products, three from Aquarius and one from SMOS, were evaluated and shown to be generally consistent within 0.3 to 0.6 psu and agree favorably with in situ measurements. However, although the Aquarius products show consistent seasonality of SSS with high values of 34.45 psu in October and low values of 33.40 psu in May, theSMOS and SMAP products lack such seasonal variations. This may be caused by larger uncertainties in the SMOS and SMAP data due in part to the lack of concurrent scatterometer measurements that is used to correct for roughness effects. The four products provide similar spatial distributions of SSS with root mean square difference from 0.25 to 0.58 psu. Differences among Aquarius products are mainly due to varying salinity retrieval algorithms, smoothing, and masking of sea ice, while the SMOS product showed the highest SSS deviation that is likely due to the bias adjustment done on the data set. Our analyses show that SSS in the Southern Ocean region has significant meridional variations with the lowest SSS near the ice edge and highest at lower latitudes. The SSS is also lowest in summer indicating the predominant influence of sea ice and glacial melt, but it stays low near ice edges even during the growth season. Salinity together with temperature is the key parameters that control the state and circulation of the World's oceans. The large‐scale distribution of the sea surface salinity of the Southern Ocean is quantified for the first time using Aquarius, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, and Soil Moisture Active and Passive satellite microwave data. Seasonal and interannual changes in the distribution as affected by the sea ice cover, surface temperature, and precipitation are evaluated. Comparative studies were done, using four different products that are publicly available, in conjunction with in situ observations to gain insights into the true nature of the distribution and how consistently the sea surface salinity is depicted by the different products. There are general consistencies in the products, and discrepancies are attributed to different algorithms, smoothing techniques, and sea ice masking. Aquarius data are shown to have higher accuracy than Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity and Soil Moisture Active and Passive products in part because of having concurrent scatterometer that provides accurate correction to roughness effects.

Garcia-Eidell, Cynthia↗

The NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: an Emerging Era of Global, Hyperspectral Earth System Remote Sensing

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA's next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth's ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, and ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, and improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere.

Gorman, Eric T.↗

An Introduction to the NASA GMAO Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System - GEOS-S2S Version 3

Recently NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a new Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction system Version 3 (GEOS-S2S-3). This upgrade replaces the GEOS-S2S-2 which is NASA's current contribution to the North American Multi-Model Experiment seasonal prediction project (Kirtman et al., 2014). The main improvements for our S2S-3 system include 1) a higher resolution MOM5 (Griffies et al., 2005) ocean model (now 0.25o x 0.25o x 50 layers), 2) an improved atmospheric/ocean interface layer (Akella and Suarez, 2018), and 3) assimilation of a long-track satellite salinity into the ocean model (Hackert et al, 2019). Atmospheric forcing is provided by the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (Gelaro et al., 2017). Initialization for the ocean relies on the GMAO ocean reanalysis system which assimilates all available in situ temperature and salinity, satellite sea surface salinity, and sea level using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) implementation of (Penny et al., 2013) on a 5 day assimilation cycle with 20 fixed ensemble members.In this presentation, we will authenticate our new S2S-3 ocean reanalysis using standard GODAE validation metrics. For example, we will compare gridded fields of mean and standard deviation of the ocean reanalysis versus observed fields. We will show correlation/RMS of model versus observations and temperature and salinity mean profiles for the various basins and latitude bands. Basin-scale volume transports, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow will be validated. Equatorial ocean waves will be compared by decomposing sea level into Kelvin and Rossby components. For each of these metrics, we plan to validate the results and then compare our new S2S-3 against the current production version, S2S-2. Finally, we will compare 9-month seasonal forecasts initialized from these two systems for the tropical Pacific NINO3.4 region over the period 1981-present.

Molod, Andrea↗

From the Interstellar Medium to Ocean Worlds: new challenges for Laboratory Astrophysics

From the Interstellar Medium to Ocean Worlds: new challenges for Laboratory Astrophysics For the past 35+ years, laboratory experiments in Astrophysics have been focusing on identifying and understanding the molecular species and chemistry occurring in interstellar environments, such as the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and dense molecular clouds. A significant portion of these laboratory efforts concerns investigations of carbon-based molecules ranging in size from a single carbon atom (e.g., CO, CO2, H2CO) to large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules potentially consisting of more than one hundred carbon atoms as well as their reactions with H2O and other interstellar species. The laboratory facilities built to conduct these investigations are capable of monitoring the chemistry and measuring the spectra under a wide range of interstellar conditions (e.g., low temperatures and pressures). The past 15 years of space exploration revealed the presence of at least nine other Ocean Worlds, besides Earth, in our Solar System. These worlds include moons and dwarf planets, ice-covered surfaces, subsurface oceans, as well as geysers venting H2O and other compounds, including organics in at least one environment, into space. Although these worlds represent environments that are significantly different from those traditionally considered the realm of Laboratory Astrophysics, their facilities are well situated to provide insight into the chemistry occurring in and around these worlds as well as experimental data for the interpretation of observations from missions visiting these Ocean World. This presentation will discuss the areas where Laboratory Astrophysics can provide experimental data to help understand the chemistry, and mission data of Ocean Worlds, and the challenges research into Ocean Worlds presents to our current facilities and how they can be overcome. Lastly, this presentation will introduce the new ICEE (In-situ Carbon Evolution Experiments) facility at NASA Ames Research Center as an example of how a lab dedicated to Laboratory Astrophysics can adapt itself to also meet the needs for Ocean Worlds research.

Andrew Lige Mattioda↗

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1mg Chlm-3. Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate.

Yamanaka, Yasuhiro↗

Exploring the Ocean Worlds

Including Earth, roughly a dozen water ocean worlds exist in the solar system: the relict worlds Ceres and Mars, large Jovian and Saturnian icy moons with vast interior oceans, and Kuiper Belt Objects like Triton, Charon, and Pluto whose geologies are dominated by water and ammonia. The ocean-world science puzzle – which may reveal whether life is widespread in the cosmos, why it exists where it does, and how it originates – can only be solved by exploring all of them. Potential life in these places could not have shared our origins, yet these worlds contain the only evidence about life that we can touch, essentially forever. Thus, their exploration has existential significance. Planning a multiworld exploration campaign would be a multi-generational undertaking. The technical challenges are diverse and formidable, far harder than at Mars: missions to the Jovian and Saturnian ocean worlds are severely powerlimited; trip times can be more than a decade. And the science targets are global-scale oceans beneath kilometers of cryogenic ice. Today, we lack the instrumentation, subsystems, and machine-intelligence technologies needed. A systematic OWEP (ocean worlds exploration program) strategy can make most effective use of funding and time. The three priority ocean-world targets are Europa at Jupiter, and Enceladus and Titan at Saturn. Five hypothetical programmatic scenarios are compared to the default case. A coherent OWEP should have several parts: first, dedicated continuous investment in enabling technologies; and second, two directed-purpose, medium-class (~$1B) missions per decade that conduct pivotal investigations on a documented roadmap. A robust OWEP would cost about 1/40th more per year than NASA’s current budget.

Naderi, Firouz↗

Astro-biological Exploration of Ocean Worlds, Enabled by an RPS Inside a Pressure Vessel

Exploring Ocean and Ice Worlds could help us to understand the origin and evolution of life in the universe. In our solar system we have identified six Ocean and Ice Worlds, namely Earth, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Enceladus, and Titan. Other potential targets include Dione, Triton, and Pluto. As documented in the Planetary Decadal Survey [1] and the NASA Roadmap to Ocean Worlds [2], these worlds are compelling science destinations, with oceans situated below their tens of kilometers thick ice shells. To reach them we need a new exploration paradigm with novel technological solutions. Key technological challenges revolve around the power for the probe and for melting, as well as protecting the payload against the extreme environments, including high pressure, low temperature, corrosion, and radiation. Far away from the Sun, and melted into the ice, we may only rely on long-lived internal power generation. Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) with either static or dynamic conversion, utilizing the heat of decaying Plutonium-238, could be good candidates. We need suitable payloads that are protected and could survive the extreme environments, as well as enabling power and thermal systems for melting through the ice shield and to swim in the ocean below the ice. RPS could support the probe’s instruments and sub-systems, as well as provide a heat source for melting the ice while keeping the components at operating temperatures. Mitigating the external pressure while immersing inside the ice shell, and in the ocean, would require a new RPS design that operates inside a Pressure Vessel. In our paper, we will discuss general mission architecture trades and the sizing of a next generation RPS housed in a pressure vessel, broadly applicable to any of the Ocean Worlds satellites of interest. Through a technology focused approach, we address interconnected design and mission architecture aspects, including considerations for: the RPS and the Pressure Vessel; extreme environmental constraints; g-load tolerance; power and thermal systems sizing for science measurements; spacecraft operations through all mission phases; subsurface mobility; and planetary protection. The findings will inform the science community on instrument accommodation possibilities; the mission planning community on possible mission concepts; and the RPS development community on the science driven technology considerations.

Donitz, Benjamin P.↗

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗

The Role of Disruptive Impacts on Ocean Generation and Longevity in Icy Moons

Among icy moons of the outer Solar System, subsurface water oceans and large collisions both seem to be common, but the impact of the latter on the presence and persistence of the former is unclear and has rarely been investigated. Here we interface a smoothed-particle hydrodynamics model to simulate collisions with a thermal-structural evolution model to simulate the evolution of moons pre-collision, post-collision and without a collision. Overall, even such large-scale collisions affect only the ocean thickness or longevity, and the presence or absence of an ocean is affected for only a part of a moon’s history. In reaccreted moons, the ocean survives the impact and becomes much thicker inside larger moons with radius near 1,000 km, whereas an ocean that would otherwise arise inside moons with radius near 500 km is absent because the collision promotes ice–rock differentiation. Our simulations have not yielded an ocean developed post-impact—whether directly via collisional or reaccretional heating or indirectly through tidal heating due to collision-induced orbital changes—in a moon that would otherwise have remained frozen. The ocean-enhancing effect is pronounced only for late disruptive impacts onto large, 1,000-km-class targets, which are unlikely in recent solar system history.

Marc Neveu↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Earth System Model Energy and Water Cycles

Earth system models parameterize ocean surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum with empirical bulk flux algorithms, which introduce biases and uncertainties into simulations. We investigate the atmosphere and ocean model sensitivity to algorithm choice in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Flux differences between algorithms are larger in atmosphere simulations (where wind speeds can vary) than ocean simulations (where wind speeds are fixed by forcing data). Surface flux changes lead to global scale changes in the energy and water cycles, notably including ocean heat uptake and global mean precipitation rates. Compared to the control algorithm, both COARE and University of Arizona (UA) algorithms reduce global mean precipitation and top of atmosphere radiative biases. Further, UA may slightly reduce biases in ocean meridional heat transport. We speculate that changes seen here, especially in the ocean, could be even larger in coupled simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Future Intensification of the North Atlantic Winter Storm Track: The Key Role of Dynamic Ocean Coupling

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic transient eddy kinetic energy (TEKE). We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future TEKE strengthening as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the TEKE. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic TEKE. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

North Atlantic winter storms↗

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Abstract Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level ( ζ ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ . The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asymmetric response of cross-equatorial ocean heat transport to latitudinal thermal forcing in CESM

The partitioning of cross-equatorial heat transport between the atmosphere and the ocean is investigated through a series of fully coupled experiments, where external radiative forcing is applied over different latitudinal bands. The modeling results reveal a first-order collaborative relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere. In response to low-latitude perturbations, the cross-equatorial heat transport is realized mainly through the atmosphere, as the total ocean heat transport (OHT) is largely offsets by its horizontal gyre component. However, as perturbations shift to higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the OHT responses become more important. Here, we also find a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in the cross-equatorial heat transport, with the OHT contribution being more important in the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is mainly attributed to different responses in the changes of the ocean circulation. When the radiative forcing is placed over the Southern Ocean, a buoyancy-driven clockwise cell is generated that extends from the Southern Ocean into the tropics in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic basins, effectively transporting energy to the northern hemisphere. Conversely, when the radiative forcing is placed over the northern high latitudes, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is responsible for the anomalous southward heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crustal Deformation and Gravitational Effects From Dynamic Ocean Mass Redistribution Impact Projected Sea‐Level Change

As the climate warms, associated changes in ocean dynamics will redistribute sea‐water mass within the ocean, contributing to relative sea‐level change. This mass redistribution will cause additional sea‐level changes due to gravitational self‐attraction, deformation of the solid Earth, and shifts in the Earth's rotation axis (GRD), which are not incorporated in sea‐level projections. Using CMIP6 climate model output, we quantify relative sea‐level changes induced by GRD from ocean‐dynamic mass loading through 2100. These effects act to amplify projected ocean‐dynamic sea‐level patterns, causing sea‐level rise in coastal regions, particularly along wide continental shelves and at high latitudes. On average, the magnitude of such GRD‐induced sea‐level change is equivalent to ∼15% of the signal due to dynamic ocean mass redistribution. Although our results show substantial inter‐model spread, they reveal that GRD‐induced relative sea‐level changes from ocean mass redistribution represent a non‐negligible component of regional sea‐level change and should be considered in projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sea surface warming and ocean-to-atmosphere feedback driven by large-scale offshore wind farms under seasonally stratified conditions

Offshore wind farms may induce changes in the upper ocean and near-surface atmosphere through coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Yet, the role of air-sea interactions mediated by offshore wind farms remains poorly understood. Using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model simulations for seasonally stratified conditions along the US East Coast, we show that simulated cumulative reductions in wind stress due to large-scale wind farm clusters lead to sea surface warming of 0.3° to 0.4°C and a shallower mixed layer. This warming drives upward heat fluxes, destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer and enhancing wind stress, which partially offsets wake-induced wind deficits. These wake-ocean interactions influence near-surface meteorology and air-sea fluxes, suggesting that a coupled modeling approach may be necessary for assessing potential oceanographic impacts of offshore wind developments. However, ocean coupling exerts limited influence on winds at turbine-relevant heights or within downstream wakes, resulting in minimal impact on long-term energy. These findings suggest that models without ocean coupling may be adequate for wind energy applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗