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At least 433 records · Page 24

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NASA NTRS1974

Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression

Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

Holms, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Why is the north polar cap on Mars different than the south polar cap?

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cold dark matter confronts the cosmic microwave background - Large-angular-scale anisotropies in Omega sub 0 + lambda 1 models

A new technique is used to compute the correlation function for large-angle cosmic microwave background anisotropies resulting from both the space and time variations in the gravitational potential in flat, vacuum-dominated, cold dark matter cosmological models. Such models with Omega sub 0 of about 0.2, fit the excess power, relative to the standard cold dark matter model, observed in the large-scale galaxy distribution and allow a high value for the Hubble constant. The low order multipoles and quadrupole anisotropy that are potentially observable by COBE and other ongoing experiments should definitively test these models.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Analytical Solution of Radiative Transfer in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System with Rough Surface

Using the efficient discrete-ordinate method, we present an analytical solution for radiative transfer in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system with rough air-water interface. The theoretical formulations of the radiative transfer equation and solution are described. The effects of surface roughness on radiation field in the atmosphere and ocean are studied and compared with measurements. The results show that ocean surface roughness has significant effects on the upwelling radiation in the atmosphere and the downwelling radiation in the ocean. As wind speed increases, the angular domain of sunglint broadens, the surface albedo decreases, and the transmission to ocean increases. The downward radiance field in the upper ocean is highly anisotropic, but this anisotropy decreases rapidly as surface wind increases and as depth in ocean increases. The effects of surface roughness on radiation also depend greatly on both wavelength and angle of incidence (i.e., solar elevation); these effects are significantly smaller throughout the spectrum at high sun. The model-observation discrepancies may indicate that the Cox-Munk surface roughness model is not sufficient for high wind conditions.

Jin, Zhonghai↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of the seasonal polar caps on Mars

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976), but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. It is shown here how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models. The combination of the effects of solar zenith angle on albedo and the radiative effects of clouds and dust act to extend the lifetime of CO2 ice on the south pole relatively more than on the north pole, possibly explaining the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps without the need of a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo. This does not imply that a hemispherical asymmetry in polar cap albedo does not exist, but that one is not necessary. Observations of the regression of the polar caps and the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure are reproduced fairly well by the model, as shown in the figures, although further improvement is needed. When CO2 ice is retained at the south pole, the model predictions of the annual cycle in atmospheric pressure have a phase shift relative to the data, no matter what model input parameters are used. We are investigating other processes not included in prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS2003

X-Ray Spectra of Young Pulsars and Their Wind Nebulae: Dependence on Spin-Down Energy Loss Rate

An observational model is presented for the spectra of young rotation-powered pulsars and their nebulae based on a study of nine bright Crab-like pulsar systems observed with the Chandra X-ray observatory. A significant correlation is discovered between the X-ray spectra of these pulsars and that of their associated pulsar wind nebulae, both of which are observed to be a function of the spin-down energy loss rate, E. The 2-10 keV spectra of these objects are well characterized by an absorbed power-law model with photon indices, Gamma, in the range of 0.6 < Gamma (sub PSR) < 2.1 and 1.3 < Gamma(sub PWN) < 2.3, for the pulsars and their nebulae, respectively. A linear regression fit relating these two sets of indexes yields Gamma(sub PWN) = 0.91 +/- 0.18 + (0.66 +/- 0.11) Gamma (sub PSR), with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.97. The spectra of these pulsars are found to steepen as Gamma = Gamma(sub max) + alpha E (exp -1/2), with Gamma(sub max) providing an observational limit on the spectral slopes of young rotation-powered pulsars. These results reveal basic properties of young pulsar systems, allow new observational constraints on models of pulsar wind emission, and provide a means of predicting the energetics of pulsars lacking detected pulsations.

Gotthelf, E. V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

modeling↗

NASA NTRS2021

Inter-comparison of snow depth over Arctic sea ice from reanalysis reconstructions and satellite retrieval

In this study, we compare eight recently developed snow depth products over Arctic sea ice, which use satellite observations, modeling, or a combination of satellite and modeling approaches. These products are further compared against various ground-truth observations, including those from ice mass balance observations and airborne measurements. Large mean snow depth discrepancies are observed over the Atlantic and Canadian Arctic sectors. The differences between climatology and the snow products early in winter could be in part a result of the delaying in Arctic ice formation that reduces early snow accumulation, leading to shallower snowpacks at the start of the freeze-up season. These differences persist through spring despite overall more winter snow accumulation in the reanalysis-based products than in the climatologies. Among the products evaluated, the University of Washington (UW) snow depth product produces the deepest spring (March–April) snowpacks, while the snow product from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) provides the shallowest spring snow depths. Most snow products show significant correlation with snow depths retrieved from Operational IceBridge (OIB) while correlations are quite low against buoy measurements, with no correlation and very low variability from University of Bremen and DMI products. Inconsistencies in reconstructed snow depth among the products, as well as differences between these products and in situ and airborne observations, can be partially attributed to differences in effective footprint and spatial–temporal coverage, as well as insufficient observations for validation/bias adjustments. Our results highlight the need for more targeted Arctic surveys over different spatial and temporal scales to allow for a more systematic comparison and fusion of airborne, in situ and remote sensing observations.

Lu Zhou↗

NASA NTRS1992

Why is the north polar cap on Mars different than the south polar cap?

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring, the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. During the year that Viking observed Mars, the residual polar cap was composed of water ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Kieffer et al., Science, 194, 1341, 1976) but was primarily carbon dioxide ice in the Southern Hemisphere (Kieffer, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 8263, 1979). Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variation in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that the CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away. However, these models all predict that the carbon dioxide ice will also sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. This paper will show how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar cap, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS2023

Quantifying the Ability of Magnetohydrodynamic Models to Reproduce Observed Birkeland Current and Auroral Electrojet Magnitudes

Although global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models have increased in sophistication and are now at the forefront of modeling Space Weather, there is still no clear understanding of how well these models replicate the observed ionospheric current systems. Without a full understanding and treatment of the ionospheric current systems, global models will have significant shortcomings that will limit their use. In this study we focus on reproducing observed seasonal interhemispheric asymmetry in ionospheric currents using the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF). We find that SWMF does reproduce the linear relationship between the electrojets and the FACs, despite the underestimation of the currents’ magnitudes. Quantitatively, we find that at best SWMF is only capturing approximately 60% of the observed current. We also investigate how varying F10.7 effects the ionospheric potential and currents during the summer and winter. We find that simulations ran with higher F10.7 result in lower ionospheric potentials. Additionally, we find that the models do not always replicate the expected behavior of the currents with varying F10.7. This work points to a needed improvement in ionospheric conductance models.

Tre'Shunda James↗

NASA NTRS1992

Temperature measurements in the inner corona

To increase the understanding of the acceleration of the solar wind, it is necessary to combine observations and theoretical approaches. The importance of coordinated measurements in the inner corona and interplanetary space to place constraints on solar wind models is demonstrated. Given the fact that the temperature in the inner corona is the most important parameter in solar wind modeling, observations from which reliable temperatures can be deduced are crucial for such coordinated approaches. The derivation of temperatures in the inner corona are addressed, as well as which assumptions and models are inherent in the temperatures derived using different observational techniques. Two examples of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations are chosen to demonstrate problems that can arise in the interpretation of measurements.

Esser, Ruth↗

NASA NTRS1991

Interannual variations of ozone - Interpretation of 4 years of satellite observations of total ozone

Observations show that the monthly zonal mean total ozone between 1978 and 1982 varies by as much as 5 percent with respect to the 4-year average. These variations have been analyzed with the aid of a two-dimensional chemistry transport model. Observed temperatures and meridional stream functions, calculated from data, were used as inputs for the model. Deviations of the model-calculated total ozone from the 4-year mean were compared with the observed variations. It is shown that a substantial part of the observed variability of total ozone is reproduced by the model, despite uncertainties in the heating rates and without any special attempts to obtain consistent eddy diffusion or otherwise to tune the model. Results indicate that the temperature dependence of the ozone gas phase chemistry plays a negligible role in explaining the observed interannual variations in total ozone. A large part of the variability can be explained by the year-to-year differences in the transport circulation. The variability of the diabatic circulation is shown to be largely independent of the ozone fluctuations and to be a consequence of the observed temperature variations.

Schneider, Hans R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Magnetospheric substorm models - Comparison with neutral sheet magnetic field observations

Four models for geomagnetic substorms, a quiet tail model, and models incorporating structural effects of the tail are examined for consistency with magnetic-field data during satellite crossings of the tail neutral sheet/plasma sheet. For this data the tearing mode instability model is always consistent, and inward moving distant neutral line is sometimes consistent, quasi-steady reconnection with slow shock and intermediate wave structure and locally quiet tail rarely consistent, and an outward propagating rarefaction wave is never consistent with the magnetic observations. In several cases structural effects of the tail are consistent with key features of the magnetic signatures.

Speiser, T. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LOTUS Highlights on Ozone Trend Analyses and Phase 3 Direction

LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) is a SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)-sponsored effort to foster collaboration between established and early career scientists around the world, with expertise in ozone observations, modeling, and trend tools, with an aim toward innovating new climate research that meets the needs of the ozone trends community and provides vital contributions to the WMO Assessment in an organized and cohesive way. Here we will summarize recent studies associated with the LOTUS effort that perform trend analyses on both total column and vertical profiles of ozone. The main findings of the derived trends from both observations and chemistry climate models have important implications for the status of the ozone layer as they pertain to the efficacy of the Montreal Protocol. These results also present new questions and knowledge gaps that will be outlined as areas of future study in Phase 3 of the LOTUS effort over the next few years to inform the next Assessment.

LOTUS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

surface temperature↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of the seasonal polar caps on Mars

One of the most puzzling mysteries about the planet Mars is the hemispherical asymmetry in the polar caps. Every spring the seasonal polar cap of CO2 recedes until the end of the summer, when only a small part, the residual polar cap, remains. Scientists have sought to explain this asymmetry by modeling observations of the latitudinal recession of the polar cap and seasonal variations in atmospheric pressure (since the seasonal polar caps are primarily frozen atmosphere, they are directly related to changes in atmospheric mass). These models reproduce most aspects of the observed annual variations in atmospheric pressure fairly accurately. Furthermore, the predicted latitudinal recession of the northern polar cap in the spring agrees well with observations, including the fact that the CO2 ice is predicted to completely sublime away during the summer in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike what is observed. This power will show how the radiative effects of ozone, clouds, and airborne dust, light penetration into and through the polar caps, and the dependence of albedo on solar zenith angle affect CO2 ice formation and sublimation, and how they help explain the hemispherical asymmetry in the residual polar caps. These effects have not been studied with prior polar cap models.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee↗

NASA NTRS1983

The O(+) 834-A dayglow - Satellite observations and interpretation with a radiation transfer model

The observations were made with the EUV spectrometer on the Air Force satellite STP-78-1. The dayglow intensity was observed at an altitude of 600 km to vary with magnetic latitude from 30 R to 300 R in the near zenith direction (theta - 40 deg) and from 400 R to 500 R in the near nadir direction (theta = 140 deg). The correspondingly large near zenith to near nadir intensity ratio of 0.3-0.65 over much of the dayside is seen as suggesting that the O(+) ions in the topside ionosphere constitute an optically thick medium for resonance scattering of 834-A airglow emission even at this high altitude. The STP 78-1 airglow data are normalized by means of simultaneous measurements of the O(+) density from the Explorer AE-E spacecraft at 460-km altitude near the equator. It is noted that for the ionization excitation of atomic oxygen leading to the production of O(+) atoms in 4P state, a g value of 1.1 x 10 to the -8th/s at zero optical depth is required. The latitudinal distribution of O(+) density derived from the 834-A airglow data reveals a double peak surrounding an equatorial trough (characteristic of the equatorial anomaly) at altitudes below 1000 km and a single peak at the magnetic equator above 1000 km.

Kumar, S.↗