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At least 433 records · Page 24

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dayflow: CONUS Daily Streamflow Reanalysis, Version 1 (V1)

Dayflow V1 is a historical streamflow reanalysis dataset reconstructed for a 36-year period (1980-2015). The dataset provides both daily and monthly scale streamflow information at about 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the conterminous US (CONUS). Dayflow is the result of a nationally scalable modeling framework that integrates the simulated runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model. Two types of streamflow products, simulated streamflow with or without assimilation of historic US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow observations, are provided in Dayflow V1. A comprehensive evaluation at 7,526 USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) gauges is performed for both types of streamflow products. The resulting key evaluation metrics are also included in the Dayflow V1 Dataset.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Progress Towards Goals Outlined in the 2014 Decadal Vision

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility published its first decadal vision document in 2014 (U.S. DOE 2014a). The overarching vision described in that document was to develop an integrated observation-modeling framework to accelerate the application of ARM observations for process studies and model applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System Modeling of Frost/Defrost Cycles in Heat Pumps

Accurately modeling frost/defrost cycles is crucial for guiding heat exchanger design, appropriately sizing the compressor, and quantifying seasonal energy consumption for heating. While previous modelling studies of frosting cycle have predominantly focused on the component level of fin-and-tube coils, there has been limited development of models for system defrosting cycles. This study enhances the existing knowledge by improving a detailed, segment-to-segment heat exchanger model to simulate frost/defrost cycles for both fin-and-tube coils and microchannel heat exchangers. Furthermore, it integrates this component-level model into a steady-state/quasi-steady-state system modeling framework to simulate complete frost/defrost processes, i.e. the ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). This comprehensive approach will unveil differences in coil types, and their interactions with the outdoor fan. It will also predict energy consumption patterns and time intervals associated with these processes.

Shen, Bo↗

COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF IGNITION AND PREMIXED FLAME PROPAGATION INITIATED BY A PRE-CHAMBER TURBULENT JET

Addressing the pressing need for reduced carbon emissions, Turbulent Jet Ignition (TJI) emerges as a promising technology for ultra-lean combustion, offering enhanced thermal efficiencies and minimized cyclic variability in spark-ignited engines. To facilitate rapid testing and integration of this technology, a robust computational modeling framework is crucial. This study delves into the predictive capabilities of computational models for main-chamber ignition and premixed flame propagation using a single-cycle TJI rig measured by Biswas et al. (Applied Thermal Engineering, vol 106, 2016). Employing an open-source compressible flow simulation solver with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for turbulence modeling, the investigation integrates the conventional Laminar Finite Rate Chemistry (LFRC) model alongside the transported Probability Density Method (PDF) for turbulence-chemistry interaction. A fully-consistent Eulerian Monte-Carlo Fields (EMCF) method is utilized to approximate the transported PDF, while Interaction by Exchange with Mean is employed to close micro-mixing terms in stochastic differential equations. A reduced chemical reaction mechanism with 21 species and 84 reactions (DRM-19) is used for solving chemical kinetics, and a double Gaussian energy deposition model is used to approximate the spark ignition in the pre-chamber. An unstructured O-grid mesh with 0.3 million cells in the prechamber and 1 million cells in the main chamber is employed. Results are divided into two phases: pre-chamber initialization and full TJI simulations. Validation of the predicted pre-chamber flame propagation and the lean ignition in the main-chamber is carried out by using available experimental data. Under quiescent conditions, both the LFRC and transported PDF methods largely underestimate the flame speed and subsequent pressure growth in the pre-chamber. A linear momentum forcing technique is applied to investigate the impact of initial turbulence in the pre-chamber, demonstrating a notable influence on flame propagation. Fine-tuning of the forcing coefficient reproduces the sudden pressure growth observed in the experiment. The experimentally validated pre-chamber simulation serves as the initial condition for the full TJI simulations. It is found that the LFRC model fails to predict lean-ignition in the main-chamber, resulting in a misfiring event. Incorporation of turbulence-chemistry interaction using the transported PDF method substantially improves the prediction of the ignition event in the main-chamber, achieving fair qualitative agreement and quantitative validation of combustion parameters within ±10% of the reported experimental data. The rich simulation results consisting of a full set of statistical description of the thermo-chemical states enable us to gain deep insights into the ignition mechanisms in the main chamber, which is limited when done experimentally. A novel dual ignition phenomenon is revealed in the TJI rig for the first time. Initially, a primary ignition kernel is formed at a downstream location which eventually detaches from the main jet. As the jet momentum decreases, a secondary ignition event follows, this time at a more upstream location which eventually combines with the primary ignition kernel to form a single connected flame front. Investigation of these ignition sequences in chemical composition space reveal distinct differences between the two. The primary ignition event in the main-chamber is followed by a large concentration of active radicals from the pre-chamber jet, accelerating the chain-branching steps, characterizing what has been referred to as flame ignition. In contrast, the secondary ignition occurs in the absence of active radicals in the pre-chamber jet, hence characterized as jet ignition. Further analysis of the effect of pre-chamber jet characteristics on lean ignition in the main-chamber is conducted by setting up cases with different initial pressure ratios (por) between the two chambers, a non-dimensional parameter, ranging from 1.2 to 3.2. As the initial pressure ratio increases, jet momentum increases, with dual ignition observed in cases above por= 2.2. Case with por= 3.2 lead to misfiring. The effect of ignition sequence on global combustion characteristics of TJI is analyzed. Dual ignition events lead to non-monotonicity in combustion characteristics such as global reaction progress variable, flame penetration, and global heat release rate. In dual ignition events, although the rate of fuel consumption and global heat release rate is initially lower, the secondary ignition leads to a sudden increase in flame surface area, resulting in a sudden jump and promoting the overall performance of the TJI system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leveraging the Higgs to Discover Physics Beyond the Standard Model (Final Technical Report)

The discovery of an apparently Standard Model-like Higgs at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) heralds the start of a new era in particle physics. While the Higgs marks the completion of the Standard Model framework, it offers far more opportunities in the search for physics beyond the Standard Model. The Higgs boson raises a pressing theoretical problem known as the hierarchy problem: why is an elementary scalar particle so light when quantum corrections tie its mass to the highest energy scales? The Higgs also provides an unprecedented experimental opportunity as a bellwether of new physics: it may be merely the first of several states in the electroweak symmetry breaking sector, while its production and decays may provide unique evidence for additional particles. Research supported by this award leveraged the Higgs boson to explore new physics from both directions, developing novel approaches to solving the hierarchy problem posed by the Higgs boson and directly employing the Higgs as a new tool for discovery. Given that null results at the LHC and other experiments have begun to endanger conventional approaches to the hierarchy problem, research supported by the award identified original solutions to the hierarchy problem wherein the lightest degrees of freedom protecting the Higgs boson carry no Standard Model quantum numbers and thus evade existing searches. The PI's approach combined standard tools of quantum field theory with novel applications of the orbifold reduction of continuous symmetries to define the framework of "neutral naturalness'' and explore its experimental consequences across the energy, intensity, and cosmic frontiers. In employing the Higgs directly as a tool for discovery, research supported by this award articulated a systematic approach to searching for extensions of the Higgs sector at the LHC and pursued four key avenues through which the Higgs can be used to uncover new physics across a range of experiments: (1) as a direct final state probe; (2) as an indirect probe through its couplings; (3) as a portal to states neutral under the Standard Model; and (4) as a source of exotic processes in displaced decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

2D Retrieval Frameworks for Hot Jupiter Phase Curves

Spectroscopic phase curves provide unique access to the three-dimensional properties of transiting exoplanet atmospheres. However, a modeling framework must be developed to deliver accurate inferences of atmospheric properties for these complex data sets. Here, we develop an approach to retrieve temperature structures and molecular abundances from phase curve spectra at any orbital phase. In the context of a representative hot Jupiter with a large day–night temperature contrast, we examine the biases in typical one-dimensional (1D) retrievals as a function of orbital phase/geometry, compared to two-dimensional (2D) models that appropriately capture the disk-integrated phase geometry. We guide our intuition by applying our new framework on a simulated Hubble Space Telescope (HST)+Spitzer phase curve data set in which the “truth” is known, followed by an application to the spectroscopic phase curve of the canonical hot Jupiter, WASP-43b. We also demonstrate the retrieval framework on simulated James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) phase curve observations. We apply our new geometric framework to a joint fit of all spectroscopic phases, assuming longitudinal molecular abundance homogeneity, resulting in an a factor of 2 improvement in abundances precision when compared to individual phase constraints. With a 1D retrieval model on simulated HST+Spitzer data, we find strongly biased molecular abundances for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} at most orbital phases. With 2D, the day and night profiles retrieved from WASP-43b remain consistent throughout the orbit. JWST retrievals show that a 2D model is strongly favored at all orbital phases. Based on our new 2D retrieval implementation, we provide recommendations on when 1D models are appropriate and when more complex phase geometries involving multiple TP profiles are required to obtain an unbiased view of tidally locked planetary atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating the demand response potential of ammonia plants

Demand-side management/demand response (DSM/DR) are key strategies for mitigating the inherent variability in electricity generation rates by renewable sources. This article represents—to our knowledge—the first foray into assessing the DR potential of ammonia plants. Ammonia plants are interesting candidates for DR initiatives because of their significant electricity use (for operating compressors driving the synthesis loop) and the ability to store the ammonia product relatively easily and safely. Our approach is based on formulating and solving an optimal DR scheduling problem for an ammonia plant while accounting for the process dynamics. To this end, we introduce a new Hammerstein–Wiener-inspired modeling framework based on injecting linear dynamics in a first-principles static nonlinear model of the process. The results are encouraging; for the cases considered, peak-time power consumption decreases between 3.57% and 7.40%, coupled with 1.39% to 3.70% reductions in operating cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A modified thermodynamic sea ice model and its application

This paper presents a modified thermodynamic sea ice model based on the Winton’s three-layer model framework. Several improvements focused on the vertical thermodynamics have been made in the model. Results from a series of one-dimensional experiments show that equilibrium ice thickness in our modified model is increased by about 45 cm when compared with the original Winton’s model. Sensitivity tests indicate that all modifications mentioned above contribute to this change of ice thickness, among which the increase of ice layer has the most significant effect followed by the sea ice conductivity parameterization. The modified thermodynamic sea ice model is then coupled into the sea ice component SIS in GFDL MOM4 to exert long-term integration experiments forced by CORE2.0 data. Results indicate that the modified model shows significant improvement in simulating the Arctic sea ice, including an increase in both the sea ice thickness and volume over the whole Arctic region. This confirms the above founding from 1-D simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Integrated Analysis Suite for Fast-Ion Study in KSTAR

Here, an integrated workflow for fast-ion analysis was developed by adapting the One Modeling Framework for Integrated Task (OMFIT) workflow manager to support a standard and unified analysis platform for KSTAR users. The newly established analysis suite offers a graphical user interface–based workflow to enable users to readily access and handle experimental data archived in various data formats and servers. Further, users can analyze the data by importing modules designed for conducting certain tasks, such as profile fitting, equilibrium reconstruction, and postprocessing of tokamak data. The procedures for preparing the inputs for fast-ion simulations are streamlined by a common workflow manager, which enables the parallel processing of various tasks to efficiently analyze large fast-ion datasets. The OMFIT platform comprises a flexible Python-based application that enables users to freely manipulate the Python scripts for applications that are unavailable in the standard workflow. The framework also offers mapping tools to translate the output data into the Integrated Modeling and Analysis Suite format to maintain application compatibility for future ITER burning plasma experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding Uncertainty in Microstructure Evolution and Constitutive Properties in Additive Process Modeling

Coupled process–microstructure–property modeling, and understanding the sources of uncertainty and their propagation toward error in part property prediction, are key steps toward full utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) for predictable quality part development. The OpenFOAM model for process conditions, the ExaCA model for as-solidified grain structure, and the ExaConstit model for constitutive mechanical properties are used as part of the ExaAM modeling framework to examine a few of the various sources of uncertainty in the modeling workflow. In addition to “random” uncertainty (due to random number generation in the orientations and locations of grains present), the heterogeneous nucleation density N 0 and the mean substrate grain spacing S 0 are varied to examine their impact of grain area development as a function of build height in the simulated microstructure. While mean grain area after 1 mm of build is found to be sensitive to N 0 and S 0 , particularly at small N 0 and large S 0 (despite some convergence toward similar values), the resulting grain shapes and overall textures develop in a reasonably similar manner. As a result of these similar textures, ExaConstit simulation using ExaCA representative volume elements (RVEs) from various permutations of N 0 , S 0 , and location within the build resulted in similar yield stress, stress–strain curve shape, and stress triaxiality distributions. It is concluded that for this particular material and scan pattern, 15 layers is sufficient for ExaCA texture and ExaConstit predicted properties to become relatively independent of additional layer simulation, provided that reasonable estimates for N 0 and S 0 are used. However, additional layers of ExaCA will need to be run to obtain mean grain areas independent of build height and baseplate structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improving climate model coupling through a complete mesh representation: a case study with E3SM (v1) and MOAB (v5.x)

One of the fundamental factors contributing to the spatiotemporal inaccuracy in climate modeling is the mapping of solution field data between different discretizations and numerical grids used in the coupled component models. The typical climate computational workflow involves evaluation and serialization of the remapping weights during the preprocessing step, which is then consumed by the coupled driver infrastructure during simulation to compute field projections. Tools like Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and TempestRemap offer capability to generate conservative remapping weights, while the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) that is utilized in many production climate models exposes functionality to make use of the operators to solve the coupled problem. However, such multistep processes present several hurdles in terms of the scientific workflow and impede research productivity. In order to overcome these limitations, we present a fully integrated infrastructure based on the Mesh Oriented datABase (MOAB) library, which allows for a complete description of the numerical grids and solution data used in each submodel. Through a scalable advancing-front intersection algorithm, the supermesh of the source and target grids are computed, which is then used to assemble the high-order, conservative, and monotonicity-preserving remapping weights between discretization specifications. The Fortran-compatible interfaces in MOAB are utilized to directly link the submodels in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to enable online remapping strategies in order to simplify the coupled workflow process. We demonstrate the superior computational efficiency of the remapping algorithms in comparison with other state-of-the-science tools and present strong scaling results on large-scale machines for computing remapping weights between the spectral element atmosphere and finite volume discretizations on the polygonal ocean grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A constitutive model for elastomers tailored by ionic bonds and entanglements

Over the past decade or two, the concept has emerged of using multiple types of weak interactions simultaneously to enhance the mechanical properties of elastomers. These weak interactions include physical entanglements, hydrogen bonds, metal-coordination bonds, dynamic covalent bonds, and ionic bonds. The combination of entanglements and ionic bonding has been minimally explored and is particularly exciting because of the broad application space for polyelectrolytes. In this work, a constitutive model framework is developed to describe the response of elastomers with both ionic bonds and entanglements. Here we formulate a micromechanical model that couples together chain stretching, ionic bond slipping, and entanglement evolution. The ionic bonds provide toughness by enabling plastic deformation in comparison to covalently crosslinked material and add strength compared to a linear polymer. Evolution of the entanglement density is taken as a key mechanism that can govern stiffness, toughness, and self-recovery in elastomers. The model is used to match bulk polyelectrolytes with different fractions of ionic components under a variety of loading histories. The variations in material parameters are then used to help understand the relative importance of different governing mechanisms in the bulk polymers. We show that the theoretical framework can explain our experimental uniaxial tensile experimental results for polyelectrolytes. This model can help to design better material with high stiffness and toughness. We expect that our model can be extended to explain the mechanical behavior of other polyelectrolytes and other soft materials with a wide range of dynamic bonds.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic study of pH effect on organic solvent nanofiltration using carboxylated covalent organic framework as a modeling and experimental platform

Covalent organic framework (COF) membranes for organic solvent nanofiltration (OSN) have attracted growing interest due to their high stability, well-defined pore size, and controllable pore functionality. In aqueous nanofiltration processes, solution pH has a significant effect on membrane permeability, selectivity, and fouling. However, our understanding of pH effects on OSN processes is still limited. In this work, we present experimental and reactive force field molecular dynamics (ReaxFF MD) simulation results on the effect of pH on OSN using a well-characterized carboxylated COF (C-COF) membrane. Filtration experimental and modeling results both demonstrate that pH changes can affect solvent permeance and solute rejection dramatically. Specifically, methanol permeance decreases with the increase of NaOH and HCl concentration, respectively. When Alcian Blue dye was used as the solute in methanol, the selectivity increased from 23% to 98% when changing the feed pH from 2.2 to 10.1, respectively. While ReaxFF MD results show that C-COF solvated pore size is only marginally affected by the pH of solution, methanol diffusion is affected by the size of methanol-solvated Na + and Cl - ions, which increase with increasing Na + and Cl - concentrations. Solution pH change also affected solute solvation layer thicknesses and C-COF pore charges, contributing to the significant AB dye selectivity increase with pH increase. To summarize, we have shown that dramatic changes in C-COF selectivity are not anomalous in OSN, but are instead controllable by varying feed solution pH to modify solvated solute radii and surface charge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Anthropogenic heat↗