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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Are clear boundaries a prerequisite for well‐functioning collaboration in home health care? A mixed methods study

Aim The aim of this study was to examine whether professional collaboration in home health care is associated with clear boundaries between principals′ areas of responsibility and the professions areas of responsibility, respectively. Methods Data were derived from a web‐based survey that was carried out in one county in the middle of Sweden during spring 2013. Participants were health professionals and managers from the county council and from all the municipalities in the county. Both structured and open‐ended questions were utilised. A total of 421 individuals (90% women) answered the structured questions, and 91 individuals (22% of the 421) answered the open‐ended questions. Quantitative data were analysed with descriptive statistics methods, tests of independence and of correlation strength. Qualitative data were analysed with content analysis. Results The results from the structured questions showed that well‐functioning collaboration was associated with clear boundaries between principals in the county overall, and for respondents in two of three parts of the county. Association between clear boundaries between professions and well‐functioning collaboration was found in the county overall among the municipality population. However, in one part of the county, we did not find any correlations between well‐functioning collaboration and clear boundaries between professions or principals, with the exception of home help services. The analysis of the open questions gave similar results as the quantitative analysis, illustrated within three themes: The significance of concepts, trust and interdependence, and collaboration as a means for well‐being. Conclusion The results indicate that, recently after an organisational change, clear boundaries between the principals′ areas of responsibility and professions' area of responsibility respectively are necessary for effective cooperation between professionals. If the organisation and professionals have previous positive experience of colocated activities, clear boundaries do not share the same importance.

Beijer, Ulla↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical dielectronic recombination rates for multielectron ions in plasma

We describe the general analytic derivation of the dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficient for multielectron ions in a plasma based on the statistical theory of an atom in terms of the spatial distribution of the atomic electron density. The dielectronic recombination rates for complex multielectron tungsten ions are calculated numerically in a wide range of variation of the plasma temperature, which is important for modern nuclear fusion studies. The results of statistical theory are compared with the data obtained using level-by-level codes ADPAK, FAC, HULLAC, and experimental results. We consider different statistical DR models based on the Thomas–Fermi distribution, viz., integral and differential with respect to the orbital angular momenta of the ion core and the trapped electron, as well as the Rost model, which is an analog of the Frank–Condon model as applied to atomic structures. In view of its universality and relative simplicity, the statistical approach can be used for obtaining express estimates of the dielectronic recombination rate coefficients in complex calculations of the parameters of the thermonuclear plasmas. The application of statistical methods also provides information for the dielectronic recombination rates with much smaller computer time expenditures as compared to available level-by-level codes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty quantification for optical model parameters

Although uncertainty quantification has been making its way into nuclear theory, these methods have yet to be explored in the context of reaction theory. For example, it is well known that different parameterizations of the optical potential can result in different cross sections, but these differences have not been systematically studied and quantified. The purpose of our work is to investigate the uncertainties in nuclear reactions that result from fitting a given model to elastic-scattering data, as well as to study how these uncertainties propagate to the inelastic and transfer channels. We use statistical methods to determine a best fit and create corresponding 95% confidence bands. A simple model of the process is fit to elastic-scattering data and used to predict either inelastic or transfer cross sections. In this initial work, we assume that our model is correct, and the only uncertainties come from the variation of the fit parameters. Here, we study a number of reactions involving neutron and deuteron projectiles with energies in the range of 5–25 MeV/u, on targets with mass A=12–208. We investigate the correlations between the parameters in the fit. The case of deuterons on 12 C is discussed in detail: the elastic-scattering fit and the prediction of 12 C(d,p) 13 C transfer angular distributions, using both uncorrelated and correlated χ 2 minimization functions. The general features for all cases are compiled in a systematic manner to identify trends. This work shows that, in many cases, the correlated χ 2 functions (in comparison to the uncorrelated χ 2 functions) provide a more natural parameterization of the process. These correlated functions do, however, produce broader confidence bands. Further optimization may require improvement in the models themselves and/or more information included in the fit.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive Analysis of TRISO Particles: Crush/Burn/Leach Followed by Davies-Gray Titration and IDMS

The accurate accounting of nuclear materials is a cornerstone of international nuclear safeguards. One emerging challenge in this domain is the fabrication of TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuels. Although these innovative fuel forms are critical for advanced reactor applications, their robust refractory ceramics and coating compositions present significant obstacles to destructive analysis (DA) methods. Ensuring full and quantitative recovery from these particles is essential for accurate mass accountancy. The current study was initiated to address these challenges, first by validating a previously established destructive method developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the quantitative recovery of uranium from TRISO particles and then following that process with uranium content determination through isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) and Davies-Gray titration. This study expands on the scope of a digestive method that was developed under the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program and is currently implemented in both the Coated Particle Fuel Development Laboratory and Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory at ORNL. The success of the previous Advanced Gas Reactor work relied on developing a DA method to evaluate the fabrication process and reactor experiments. The methodology described in this report was designed to rigorously investigate the efficacy of the crush/burn/leach sample preparation of TRISO particles; it aims to quantify uranium recovery while also assessing the effects of TRISO constituents (e.g., silicon and zirconium) on analytical precision and accuracy. By comparing the results from the titration method and IDMS, we sought to determine whether existing analytical procedures accepted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could be effectively translated to TRISO fuel forms. The team employed an approach that involved processing replicate TRISO samples, optimizing the milling (i.e., crushing) step and performing serial leaches. The elemental composition of the analytical samples was examined to prepare for interference studies in the second year of this project. The integration of gamma spectrometry to verify residual uranium activity further strengthened the validation. Statistical methods were applied to the collected data to evaluate the uncertainties arising from sampling, sample preparation and uranium quantification. These uncertainties were then compared to the IAEA’s international target values (ITVs). Additional data collected in upcoming project work will strengthen the uncertainty estimates. Ultimately, it is hoped that this project will contribute materially to the body of work related to characterization of TRISO based fuels for the purpose of material accountancy and its applications to international safeguards.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning model for predicting the minimum miscibility pressure of CO 2 and crude oil system based on a support vector machine algorithm approach

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a potential way for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Though, the effect of CO 2 injection is greatly influenced by the reservoir conditions. Typically, Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is selected as one of the key parameters for the screening and evaluation of prospective CO 2 flooding. Conventional slim tube test is both accurate and widely accepted but it is inefficient. Existing empirical formulas for MMPs are easy to be used but have been proved inaccurate and unreliable. Machine learning-based methods have great advantages in predicting MMP. However, only predication accuracy is discussed for most models without the screening of the main control factors and further validation of the model reliability. In this paper, a new prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) was developed for pure/impure CO 2 and crude oil system. This study was based on 147 sets of MMP data from the literature with full information on reservoir temperature, oil composition and gas composition. The main control factors were screened by several statistical methods. Unlike the conventional prediction models that verified by only prediction accuracy, learning curve and single factor control variable analysis are further validated to obtain the optimum model.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-508: Internal Organ Motion Effect On Radiation Dose to a Point Under Half-Beam Block Match Line

Purpose Half-beam block is a field matching technique frequently used in radiotherapy. With no setup error, a well calibrated linac, and no internal organ motion, two photon fields can be matched seamlessly dosimetry-wise with their central axes passing the match line. However, in actual clinical situations, internal organ motion is often inevitable. This study was conducted to investigate its influence on radiation dose to patient internal points directly under the matching line. Methods A clinical setting is modeled as two half-space (x<0 and x<0) radiation fields that are turned on sequentially with a time gap of integer times of the patient internal organ motion period (T{sub 0}). Our point of interest moves with patient internal organs periodically and evenly in and out of the radiation fields, resulting in an average location at x=0. When the fields are delivered without any motion management, the initial phase of the point’s movement is unknown. Statistical methods are used to compute the expected value ( ) and variance (σ) of the point dose given the uncertainty. Results Analytical solutions are obtained for and s of dose received by a point directly under the match line. is proportional to the total beam-on time (T1), and σ demonstrates previously unknown periodic behavior. /<Dσ has local maximums (minimums) when T{sub 1} is 2n*T{sub 0} ((2n+1)*T{sub 0}) (n is an integer) with an upper envelope scales as 1/T{sub 1}. Worst case scenario the point dose can be zero or double of the expected value. Conclusion We have analytically analyzed the internal organ motion effect on radiation dose received by a patient internal point directly under a half-beam block match line. Our results help us to better understand this phenomenon and facilitate the reduction of point dosimetric uncertainties in our clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Prophylaxis of Radiation-Induced Nausea and Vomiting Using 5-Hydroxytryptamine-3 Serotonin Receptor Antagonists: A Systematic Review of Randomized Trials

Purpose: To systematically review the effectiveness and safety of 5-hydroxytryptamine-3 receptor antagonists (5-HT3 RAs) compared with other antiemetic medication or placebo for prophylaxis of radiation-induced nausea and vomiting. Methods and Materials: We searched the following electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials, and Web of Science. We also hand-searched reference lists of included studies. Randomized, controlled trials that compared a 5-HT3 RA with another antiemetic medication or placebo for preventing radiation-induced nausea and vomiting were included. We excluded studies recruiting patients receiving concomitant chemotherapy. When appropriate, meta-analysis was conducted using Review Manager (v5) software. Relative risks were calculated using inverse variance as the statistical method under a random-effects model. We assessed the quality of evidence by outcome using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach. Results: Eligibility screening of 47 articles resulted in 9 included in the review. The overall methodologic quality was moderate. Meta-analysis of 5-HT3 RAs vs. placebo showed significant benefit for 5-HT3 RAs (relative risk [RR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.86 for emesis; RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.96 for nausea). Meta-analysis comparing 5-HT3 RAs vs. metoclopramide showed a significant benefit of the 5-HT3 RAs for emetic control (RR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.47). Conclusion: 5-Hydroxytryptamine-3 RAs are superior to placebo and other antiemetics for prevention of emesis, but little benefit was identified for nausea prevention. 5-Hydroxytryptamine-3 RAs are suggested for prevention of emesis. Limited evidence was found regarding delayed emesis, adverse events, quality of life, or need for rescue medication. Future randomized, controlled trials should evaluate different 5-HT3 antiemetics and new agents with novel mechanisms of action such at the NK{sub 1} receptor antagonists to determine the most effective drug. Delayed nausea and vomiting should be a focus of future study, perhaps concentrating on the palliative cancer population.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Detecting inhomogeneities in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over the central United States

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which spans the 138 year period from 1871 to 2008, was intended for a variety of climate applications, including long–term trend assessment. Because over land 20CR only assimilates surface pressure observations and their count increases by an order of magnitude over the course of the record, a key question is whether the 20CR is homogenous and hence suitable for detecting climate–related changes. We use three statistical methods (Pettitt and Bai–Perron tests and segmented regression) to detect abrupt shifts in multiple hydrometeorological variable mean and uncertainty fields over the central United States. For surface air temperature and precipitation, we use the Climate Research Unit (CRU) time series data set for comparison. We find that for warm–season months, there is a consensus change point among all variables between 1940 and 1950, which is not substantiated by the CRU record. While we cannot say with certainty that these shifts in the 20CR analysis fields are artificial, our statistical analyses, coupled with a visual inspection of the underlying assimilated observational count time series, strongly point to this conclusion. Furthermore, our recommendation is therefore for users to restrict climate trend applications over the central United States to the second half century of the 20CR record, after observational density has stabilized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗
NASA NTRS1995

Integrated design and manufacturing for the high speed civil transport (a combined aerodynamics/propulsion optimization study)

This report documents the efforts of a Georgia Tech High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aerospace student design team in completing a design methodology demonstration under NASA's Advanced Design Program (ADP). Aerodynamic and propulsion analyses are integrated into the synthesis code FLOPS in order to improve its prediction accuracy. Executing the integrated product and process development (IPPD) methodology proposed at the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL), an improved sizing process is described followed by a combined aero-propulsion optimization, where the objective function, average yield per revenue passenger mile ($/RPM), is constrained by flight stability, noise, approach speed, and field length restrictions. Primary goals include successful demonstration of the application of the response surface methodolgy (RSM) to parameter design, introduction to higher fidelity disciplinary analysis than normally feasible at the conceptual and early preliminary level, and investigations of relationships between aerodynamic and propulsion design parameters and their effect on the objective function, $/RPM. A unique approach to aircraft synthesis is developed in which statistical methods, specifically design of experiments and the RSM, are used to more efficiently search the design space for optimum configurations. In particular, two uses of these techniques are demonstrated. First, response model equations are formed which represent complex analysis in the form of a regression polynomial. Next, a second regression equation is constructed, not for modeling purposes, but instead for the purpose of optimization at the system level. Such an optimization problem with the given tools normally would be difficult due to the need for hard connections between the various complex codes involved. The statistical methodology presents an alternative and is demonstrated via an example of aerodynamic modeling and planform optimization for a HSCT.

Baecher, Juergen↗
DOE OSTI2017

Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawaii: 1. Geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets

Phase 1 of a Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) of geothermal resource potential across the State of Hawaii was recently completed. The final products of this work include a statewide geothermal resource probability map, a map of confidence in this probability, an assessment of the viability of development in areas of interest, and a prioritized list of recommended future exploration activities. The intersection of subsurface heat (H), permeability (P), and fluid (F) is necessary for an optimum geothermal play. This study: (1) identified and compiled all legacy and current data relevant to Hawaii’s geothermal resource; (2) ranked these datasets in terms of their relevance to subsurface H, P, F; (3) developed a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the data and their rankings, and produce a statewide resource probability map; (4) developed a method to assess confidence in the probability values; and (5) assessed what we term ‘development viability’ in resulting areas of interest across the state. This paper details the basic project workflow, and activities (1) and (2). It describes the rationale for including this study’s datasets: surface geologic mapping data (calderas, rift zones, volcanic vents, dikes, faults), groundwater data (temperature, Chloride:Magnesium, SiO 2 ) and geophysical data (gravity, magnetotelluric, seismic, geodetic strain), and justifies their relative rankings in terms of H, P, and F. A second paper describes activities (3) and (4) related to the statistical methodology, and a third paper describes activity (5), the development viability criteria, as well as our suggested roadmap for future exploration activities. Overall, we find that the likelihood of abundant of geothermal resources is highest on the youngest island of Hawaii, but groundwater indicators suggest there may also be resources on the other, older islands. Furthermore, the higher demand for renewable energy on the more populated islands of Maui and Oahu, as well as a high viability of development on Lanai, also motivate further exploration on these islands.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-P-48: Evaluation of Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) with Three Different Commercial Planning Systems for the Treatment of Cervical Cancer

Purpose: To investigate the performances of three commercial treatment planning systems (TPS) for intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) optimization regarding cervical cancer. Methods: For twenty cervical cancer patients, three IMRT plans were retrospectively re-planned: one with Pinnacle TPS,one with Oncentra TPS and on with Eclipse TPS. The total prescribed dose was 50.4 Gy delivered for PTV and 58.8 Gy for PTVnd by simultaneous integrated boost technique. The treatments were delivered using the Varian 23EX accelerator. All optimization schemes generated clinically acceptable plans. They were evaluated based on target coverage, homogeneity (HI) and conformity (CI). The organs at risk (OARs) were analyzed according to the percent volume under some doses and the maximum doses. The statistical method of the collected data of variance analysis was used to compare the difference among the quality of plans. Results: IMRT with Eclipse provided significant better HI, CI and all the parameters of PTV. However, the trend was not extension to the PTVnd, it was still significant better at mean dose, D50% and D98%, but plans with Oncentra showed significant better in the hight dosage volume, such as maximum dose and D2%. For the bladder wall, there were not notable difference among three groups, although Pinnacle and Oncentra systems provided a little lower dose sparing at V50Gy of bladder and rectal wall and V40Gy of bladder wall, respectively. V40Gy of rectal wall (p=0.037), small intestine (p=0.001 for V30Gy, p=0.010 for maximum dose) and V50Gy of right-femoral head (p=0.019) from Eclipse plans showed significant better than other groups. Conclusion: All SIB-IMRT plans were clinically acceptable which were generated by three commercial TPSs. The plans with Eclipse system showed advantages over the plans with Oncentra and Pinnacle system in the overwhelming majority of the dose coverage for targets and dose sparing of OARs in cervical cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Methods for Discerning Cloud Reflectivity Changes due to the Indirect Effect of Aerosol: A Pilot-study for Triana

Understanding the effect of aerosol on cloud systems is one of the major challenges in atmospheric and climate research. Local studies suggest a multitude of influences on cloud properties. Yet the overall effect on cloud albedo, a critical parameter in climate simulations, remains uncertain. NASA's Triana mission will provide, from its EPIC multi-spectral imager, simultaneous data on aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity. With Triana's unique position in space these data will be available not only globally but also over the entire daytime, well suited to accommodate the often short lifetimes of aerosol and investigations around diurnal cycles. This pilot study explores the ability to detect relationships between aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity with sophisticated statistical methods. Sample results using data from the EOS Terra platform to simulate Triana are presented.

Kinne, S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds

Although a variety of climate datasets are now available, including observational and model products, there remains a pressing need for the development of a unified, automated and application-focused approach for evaluating and comparing climate extremes within and across these datasets. Precipitation frequency (PF) es- timates for extreme precipitation events are useful decision-relevant quantities among water managers. Our objective and quantitative framework for computing PF estimates of any duration uses known techniques in a novel combination. Our framework consists of three steps: (1) use of a regionalization-based statistical method for precipitation frequency estimation at observed sites; this involves hierarchical clustering (here we used Ward’s method) for delineating homogeneous regions, and regional frequency analysis using L-moments; (2) use of kriging for spatial mapping because of its advantages over other conventional interpolation methods; (3) use of z-scores accounts for estimation uncertainties when comparing PF estimates between datasets. The 24-h PF estimates in the Kissimmee-Southern Florida watershed (flat topography) and the Sacramento-San Joaquin watershed (complex topography) demonstrate the applicability of this approach in regions of any geographical complexity. Our results are shown to be reasonably calibrated using the probability integral transform (PIT) histogram of the best fitted distribution. Our results are compared with that of the NOAA Atlas 14 reports and show that for most of the stations the two estimates are statistically indistinguishable; and, the confidence intervals of our estimates are narrower than those of the NOAA estimates. Our approach is applicable to a variety of datasets and provides a baseline for assessing performance of climate models in historical simulations – a necessary first step towards analyzing future projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Precipitation measurements from space - Workshop summary 28 April-1 May 1981, Greenbelt, MD

The goals and methods for global precipitation measurements from space are examined. Records currently exist only for visible and IR scans of cloud properties, and are applied from GEO for detecting diurnal variations in precipitation. Microwave radiometry is noted to be a suitable method for supplementing the visible and IR data for measuring stratiform oceanic precipitation, and when used at up to 3 microns can detect areas, if not amounts, of precipitation from GEO. Applications of radar altimeters are proposed in terms of modifications to the Seasat-type 2.2 cm radar, the use of surface target attentuation radar, of frequency agile rain radar, or of adaptive pointing radar. Soil moisture sensing is available with passive microwave radiometry in the 20-50 cm bands, or active sensing in the 5-8 cm bands. The utilization of GARP ground truth data is explored, along with statistical methods for treating the data samples.

Atlas, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗