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At least 433 records · Page 24

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DOE OSTI2025

Airport Delay Prediction with Temporal Fusion Transformers

Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous delay predictions are often categorical and at a highly aggregated level. To improve that, this study proposes to apply the novel Temporal Fusion Transformer model and predict numerical airport arrival delays at quarter hour level for U.S. top 30 airports. Inputs to our model include airport demand and capacity forecasts, historic airport operation efficiency information, airport wind and visibility conditions, as well as en-route weather and traffic conditions. The results show that our model achieves satisfactory performance measured by small prediction errors on the test set. In addition, the interpretability analysis of the model outputs identifies the important input factors for delay prediction.

Liu, Ke [University of California Berkeley]↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Study on Modeled Wind Speed Errors Using the U.S. Department of Energy Buoys

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinel lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. The purpose of these buoys is to collect hub-height winds and supporting meteorological and oceanographic information to facilitate the development of wind energy in the U.S. waters. The first deployment for one buoy was off the coast of Virginia from December 2014 to May 2016, and the first deployment for the other buoy was off the coast of New Jersey from November 2015 until February 2017. This report describes recent analysis of data collected during these first two deployments. Specifically, we compare hub-height wind speed estimates using Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) to the lidar measurements, and examine how those errors are affected by wind direction, atmospheric stability, wind-wave direction differences, and various measures of the wave-state. The comparisons are done using standard similarity functions based on MOST; including the Businger - Dyer, the Beljaars & Holtslag and the Vickers & Mahrt similarity functions. All models produce large errors over the range of atmospheric stabilities that were observed, with the largest errors occurring for stable flows. The Vickers & Mahrt function resulted in the largest overall bias and standard deviation, while Beljaars & Holtslag function gave the smallest bias and standard deviation due to its better performance under stable conditions. The models perform best under unstable conditions, but even in this regime there is a consistent overestimation of the wind speed of between roughly 0 to 1 ms -1 compared to the lidar measurements. We identify specific metocean conditions (i.e. stability and wind and wave directions) at each of the deployment locations that lead to large errors in MOST predictions. Finally, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model framework was investigated to simulate large errors in weather research forecasting (WRF).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cell G 7606A Mockup Measurement Analysis Methods and Results

The production of research isotopes at the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) invariably leads to the accumulation of radioactive waste. Storage of this waste onsite at ORNL serves as an interim solution prior to shipment to long term storage facilities, however onsite capacity is limited. Proper characterization of the activity of waste products is essential for determining the appropriate waste stream and, ultimately, mitigating the cost of disposal. This is typically done via gamma spectrometry and use of the In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS), a software package from Mirion that serves as an accepted community standard. However, variability in the contents, density, and activity distribution in waste containers can introduce large errors in ISOCS quantification. A measurement campaign using a mockup of the proposed setup in Cell G seeks to quantify the magnitude and source of these systematic errors. Analysis of this data will guide the creation of ISOCS geometry templates and measurement methods designed to minimize overall uncertainty in reported activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Flow-Enhanced Sensors for Actinide Quantification in MSRs

This report serves as the deliverable for Milestone M2RS-22AN0401062 that is part of Work Package RS-22AN040106 (Flow Enhanced Sensors for MSRs – ANL). The goal of this milestone is to assess the capabilities of flow-enhanced electrochemical sensors (FEES) to quantify actinides in molten salt reactors. Flow enhanced electrochemical sensors are a type of electroanalytical sensor that has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory to be installed directly into MSR flow conduits in order to make measurements of the salt composition. These sensors represent a significant improvement in capabilities compared to earlier electroanalytical sensors that instead can only be operated in quiescent conditions. To support this work, Argonne constructed a molten salt flow system to serve as a testbed for the development of safeguards and process monitoring-relevant sensors in challenging molten salt flow conditions. Through extensive flow testing using UCl3-bearing salts, Argonne has been able to show that the FEES are able to make good measurements of salt composition. Concentration measurements with a mean absolute error of 0.09 wt% have been achieved for representative fuel salt mixtures across a range of UCl3 loadings. Repeatability was also good, with the relative standard deviation from repeated measurements being less than 1.0%. These sensors have also been shown to be able to measure the flow rate of the salt within the flow system’s transfer line. Although the accuracy of the sensors has been good, the sensors have thus far not been able to achieve performance good enough to satisfy the nuclear material accountancy requirements in 10 CFR 74. To do so, accuracy levels of 0.1% must be achieved; the FEES when operated in Argonne’s flow system have so far only been able to achieve relative errors of approximately 5.0%. Much of the error that has been observed at this stage is due to challenges in maintaining a stable salt composition in the molten salt flow system, and it is not believed that there are any inherent flaws in the sensor design. Nonetheless, the high degree of accuracy required by 10 CFR 74 represents a significant challenge, and further design evolution and integration of the sensors into multimodal sensing frameworks will likely be needed to push the measurement accuracy to the needed level.

Moore, Colin E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Commissioning of Large Machine Tools Using Finite Element-Based Correction of Geometric Errors

Large computer numerical control (CNC) machine tools derive their stiffness from monolithic cast iron bases or weldments that are sometimes integral to machine motion systems like box ways or guideways. However, the sheer size of castings and even floor flatness deviations result in dimensional errors in these systems, which manifest as machine motion errors. Typical geometric alignment processes rely on an iterative approach, where measurements are taken to assess alignment (straightness, squareness, and parallelism), followed by adjustment of the machine supports (fixators or leveling pads), which can take weeks even for an experienced operator. Conversely, a novel method is proposed to shorten the correction time by eliminating the trial-and-error process in favor of a more deterministic approach guided by a finite element (FE) method. A feasibility study is conducted on a CNC polymer hybrid machine, with a steel weldment frame, supported by six leveling pads. An FE model of the frame is utilized to obtain recommended leveling pad adjustments, based on measurement of machine errors taken using a laser tracker. After a single adjustment cycle, measurements reveal that geometric errors of the machine tool are reduced from 2.22 mm of flatness deviation to 0.32 mm, achieving an 85.6% reduction. Furthermore, the entire process including measurement, adjustment, and assessment is completed in just 6 h by two operators who are not professional service engineers. In conclusion, this methodology demonstrates feasibility for scaling up, especially to large, high-precision CNC machine tools with bases mounted by fixators, offering the capability for bidirectional adjustment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Selection of optimal wavelengths for optical soiling modelling and detection in photovoltaic modules

Soiling impacts the photovoltaic (PV) module performance by decreasing the amount of light reaching the photovoltaic cells and by changing their external spectral response. Currently, the soiling monitoring market is moving toward optical sensors that measure transmittance or reflectance, rather than directly measuring the impact of soiling on the performance of photovoltaic modules. These sensors, which use a single optical measurement, are not able to correct the soiling losses that depend on the solar irradiance spectra and on the spectral response of the monitored PV material. This work investigates methods that can improve the optical detection of soiling by extracting the full soiling spectrum profiles using only two or three monochromatic measurements. Spectral transmittance data, measured with a spectrophotometer and collected during a 46-week experimental soiling study carried out in Jaén, Spain, was analysed in this work. The use of a spectral profile for the hemispherical transmittance of soiled PV glass is found to significantly improve the soiling detection, returning the lowest errors independently of the PV materials and irradiance conditions. In addition, this work shows that it is also possible to select the measurement wavelengths to minimize the soiling loss detection error depending on the monitored PV semiconductor material (silicon, CdTe, a-Si, CIGS and a representative perovskite). The approaches discussed in this work are also found to be more robust to potential measurement errors compared to single wavelength measurement techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimising the processing and storage of visibilities using lossy compression

The next-generation radio astronomy instruments are providing a massive increase in sensitivity and coverage, largely through increasing the number of stations in the array and the frequency span sampled. The two primary problems encountered when processing the resultant avalanche of data are the need for abundant storage and the constraints imposed by I/O, as I/O bandwidths drop significantly on cold storage. An example of this is the data deluge expected from the SKA Telescopes of more than 60 PB per day, all to be stored on the buffer filesystem. While compressing the data is an obvious solution, the impacts on the final data products are hard to predict. In this paper, we chose an error-controlled compressor – MGARD – and applied it to simulated SKA-Mid and real pathfinder visibility data, in noise-free and noise-dominated regimes. As the data have an implicit error level in the system temperature, using an error bound in compression provides a natural metric for compression. MGARD ensures the compression incurred errors adhere to the user-prescribed tolerance. To measure the degradation of images reconstructed using the lossy compressed data, we proposed a list of diagnostic measures, exploring the trade-off between these error bounds and the corresponding compression ratios, as well as the impact on science quality derived from the lossy compressed data products through a series of experiments. We studied the global and local impacts on the output images for continuum and spectral line examples. We found relative error bounds of as much as 10%, which provide compression ratios of about 20, have a limited impact on the continuum imaging as the increased noise is less than the image RMS, whereas a 1% error bound (compression ratio of 8) introduces an increase in noise of about an order of magnitude less than the image RMS. For extremely sensitive observations and for very precious data, we would recommend a 0.1% error bound with compression ratios of about 4. These have noise impacts two orders of magnitude less than the image RMS levels. At these levels, the limits are due to instabilities in the deconvolution methods. We compared the results to the alternative compression tool DYSCO, in both the impacts on the images and in the relative flexibility. MGARD provides better compression for similar error bounds and has a host of potentially powerful additional features.

Techniques: interferometric↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward the “platinum standard” of quantum chemistry on quantum computers: Perturbative quadruple corrections in unitary coupled cluster theory

We propose a non-iterative, post-hoc correction to the unitary coupled cluster theory with the single, double, and triple excitations (UCCSDT) Ansatz, which considers the leading-order effects of neglected quadruple excitations. We present two ways to derive this correction, henceforth referred to as [Q-6], which leads to an improvement in the correlation energy shown to be truncated to sixth-order in many-body perturbation theory. Furthermore, a comparison between the UCC-based [Q-6] correction proposed in this work and analogous, “platinum standard” quadruple corrections proposed in conventional coupled cluster theory recognizes that [Q-6] is distinct from prior corrections since it is constructed entirely from internally connected components. Although trotterized (t) and full operator variants of UCCSDT exhibit errors in scans of small molecule potential energy surfaces that routinely exceed 1.6 mH, we find that t/UCCSDT[Q-6] is, nevertheless, able to achieve chemical accuracy as measured by the mean unsigned error.

Correlation energy↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty in Experimental Data Analysis [Slides]

The talk was presented virtually to the Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, Poland, December 21, 2020. Astronomical observations, unusual medical cases, physics experiments too costly to repeat, natural events like earthquakes, hurricanes – all of them are impossible to repeat yet produce important scientific information not achievable in other way. This data should not be treated as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. It should be analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way to produce quantitative experimental data. Analysis method for one-of-a-kind event data differs from analysis of a repeated experiment data. For a repeated experiments the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single true experimental value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Modern digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one-of-a-kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Noninvasive mid-circuit measurement and reset on atomic qubits

Mid-circuit measurement and reset of subsets of qubits are crucial ingredients of quantum error correction and many quantum information applications. Measurement of atomic qubits is accomplished through resonant fluorescence, which typically disturbs neighboring atoms due to photon scattering. We propose and prototype a scheme for measurement and reset that provides both spatial and spectral isolation by using tightly focused laser beams and narrow atomic transitions. The unique advantage of this scheme is that all operations are applied exclusively to the read-out qubit, with little overhead and negligible disturbance to the other qubits of the same species. In this paper, we pave the way for noninvasive and high-fidelity mid-circuit measurement and demonstrate all key building blocks on a single trapped barium ion.

atomic systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

Topological order and entanglement dynamics in the measurement-only XZZX quantum code

We examine the dynamics of a ( 1 + 1 ) -dimensional measurement-only circuit defined by the stabilizers of the [[5,1,3]] quantum error correcting code interrupted by single-qubit Pauli measurements. The code corrects arbitrary single-qubit errors and it stabilizes an area law entangled state with a D 2 = Z 2 × Z 2 symmetry protected topological (SPT) order, as well as a symmetry breaking (SB) order from a twofold bulk degeneracy. The Pauli measurements break the topological order and induce a phase transition into a trivial area law phase. Allowing more than one type of Pauli measurement increases the measurement-induced frustration and the SPT and SB order can be broken either simultaneously or separately at nonzero measurement rate. This yields a rich phase diagram and unanticipated critical behavior at the phase transitions. Although the correlation length exponent ν = 4 3 and the dynamical critical exponent z = 1 are consistent with bond percolation, the prefactor of the logarithmic entanglement growth may take noninteger multiples of the percolation value. Remarkably, we identify a robust transient scaling regime for the purification dynamics of L qubits. It reveals a modified dynamical critical exponent z * ≠ z , which is observable up to times t ~ L z * and is reminiscent of the relaxation of critical systems into a prethermal state.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancements in reflected target nonintrusive assessment (ReTNA) for large optical surface measurement

Reflected computer vision targets are a powerful tool for measurement of mirror surface shape, with several important advantages over traditional fringe deflectometry methods. This method was first presented in 2021 and has undergone significant improvement and demonstration since. We describe a new baseline system using reflected computer vision targets, and present results from a large-scale measurement campaign conducted on both commercial heliostats and test mirrors in the laboratory. Calibration of the measurement system with photogrammetry allows for accurate measurement without careful control of target shape or camera position. Overall, the results show that a baseline setup using this method achieves measurement uncertainties in the slope error root-mean-square less than ±0.11 milliradian due to a series of repeatability conditions, varying sample position, rotation, lighting, camera settings, and system rebuild and recalibration. We present a detailed description of the setup, the results generated by this measurement tool, repeated measurement results, and the strengths and limitations of this metrology system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of dynamic testing of full-scale wind turbine drivetrains with hardware-in-the-loop

Dynamometer testing of full-scale wind turbine drivetrains involves subjecting integrated components to extreme static loads, fatigue loads, or dynamic loads to replicate field conditions. This paper provides a detailed evaluation of the uncertainty and errors in applied loads and measured responses, and their magnitude relative to established repeatability bounds for a drivetrain subjected to static and dynamic loads on the 7.5 MW test bench at the Clemson University Wind Turbine Drivetrain Testing Facility. An ideal drivetrain simulation model is utilized to isolate the influence of load tracking errors on test article responses. It is shown that the test article response variations are mainly driven by run out and clearances inherent to the drivetrain. For the dynamic profiles, the load tracking errors are within acceptable limits. Furthermore, a frequency analysis is used to show that the test bench controller tracking performance is acceptable for profiles with frequency content up to 1.5 Hz.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutron-capture Element Abundances of 491 Stars in Milky Way Dwarf Satellite Galaxies from Medium-resolution Spectra

The chemical compositions of evolved stars in Local Group dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) provide insight into the galaxy’s past star formation and nucleosynthesis. Neutron-capture element abundances are especially interesting. In particular, s-process elements can provide a third chemical clock for resolving star formation histories in addition to core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae. Likewise, the primary sites of the r-process are still areas of extensive research. Until now, the number of stars with neutron-capture element abundances in dSphs has been limited by the need for stars bright enough for high-resolution spectroscopy. We present abundance measurements of the neutron-capture elements Sr, Y, Ba, and Eu with errors <0.4 dex—as well as new measurements of Mg—in 491 stars in Sculptor, Fornax, Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor. The large number of stars in our sample is possible because we used medium-resolution spectra from the DEIMOS spectrograph, assembling the largest homogeneous set of neutron-capture abundances in dSphs to date. By utilizing the abundances of both s- and r-process elements, we find evidence of an s-process contribution at early times in Sculptor from our measurements of [Ba/Fe]. This is a potential signature of s-process nucleosynthesis in fast-rotating massive stars. By comparing our measurements of [Eu/Fe] with [Mg/Fe], we show the need for an r-process source that has a short delay time to enrich stars in the dSphs. Thus, neutron star mergers are likely not the sole source of r-process material in dSphs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-invasive mid-circuit measurement and reset on atomic qubits

Mid-circuit measurement and reset of subsets of qubits is a crucial ingredient of quantum error correction and many quantum information applications. Measurement of atomic qubits is accomplished through resonant fluorescence, which typically disturbs neighboring atoms due to photon scattering. We propose and prototype a new scheme for measurement that provides both spatial and spectral isolation by using tightly-focused individual laser beams and narrow atomic transitions. The unique advantage of this scheme is that all operations are applied exclusively to the read-out qubit, with negligible disturbance to the other qubits of the same species and little overhead. In this letter, we pave the way for non-invasive and high fidelity mid-circuit measurement and demonstrate all key building blocks on a single trapped barium ion.

Atomic Physics (physics.atom-ph)↗