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DOE OSTI2022

Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3 (20CRv3) and Its Relationship with Continental Extreme Temperatures

In this study, we detect and track extratropical cyclones using 6-hourly mean sea level pressure data taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3) over the period 1951–2015 and compare them with those in the Interim and fifth generation of ECMWF reanalyses over the period 1979–2018. Three indices were employed to characterize cyclone activity, including cyclone count, cyclone intensity, and a cyclone activity index (CAI) that combines the count and intensity. The results show that the cyclone indices in the three datasets have comparable annual climatologies and seasonal evolution over the northern extratropical land and ocean in recent decades. Based on the cyclone indices over the period 1951–2010 in 80 ensemble members of 20CRv3, cyclone count and intensity are negatively correlated in winter and tend to be positively and weakly correlated in summer. The interannual CAI variability is dominated by the cyclone count variability. Regional mean cyclone activity can be well represented using the ensemble average cyclone index. We then examined the linkage of the cyclone activity in 20CRv3 and observed cold and warm extremes over Eurasia and North America over the period 1951–2010. In winter, the principal components of interannual cold and warm extreme anomalies are more correlated with the regional mean cyclone count index over Eurasia, while they are more correlated with the cyclone intensity index over North America. The temperature anomalies associated with the regional and ensemble mean cyclone count index explain about 10% (20%) of interannual cold (warm) extreme variances averaged over Eurasia. The temperature anomalies associated with the mean cyclone intensity explain about 10% of interannual cold and warm extreme variances over North America. Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with cyclone activity and the induced temperature advection drive temperature anomalies over Eurasia and North America. In summer, circulation and thermal advection anomalies associated with cyclone activity are weak over the two continents. Hence, that season’s relationship between cyclone activity and extreme temperature variability is weak.

20CRv3↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of the Atmosphere of Super-Earth 55 Cancri e Using High-resolution Ground-based Spectroscopy

The nearby super-Earth 55 Cnc e orbits a bright (V = 5.95 mag) star with a period of -18 hr and a mass of -8M {sub ⊕}. Its atmosphere may be water-rich and have a large-scale height; though, attempts to characterize it have yielded ambiguous results. Here we present a sensitive search for water and TiO in its atmosphere at high spectral resolution using the Gemini North telescope and the GRACES spectrograph. We combine observations with previous observations from Subaru and CFHT, improving the constraints on the presence of water vapor. We adopt parametric models with an updated planet radius based on recent measurements, and use a cross-correlation technique to maximize sensitivity. Our results are consistent with atmospheres that are cloudy or contain minimal amounts of water and TiO. Using these parametric models, we rule out a water-rich atmosphere (VMR ≥ 0.1%) with a mean molecular weight of ≤ 15 g mol{sup -1} at a 3σ confidence level, improving on the previous limit by a significant margin. For TiO, we rule out a mean molecular weight of ≤ 5 g mol{sup -1} with a 3σ confidence level for a VMR greater than 10{sup -8}; for a VMR of greater than 10{sup -7}, the limit rises to a mean molecular weight of ≤ 10 g mol{sup -1}. We can rule out low mean-molecular-weight chemical equilibrium models both including and excluding TiO/VO at very high confidence levels (>10σ). Overall, our results are consistent with an atmosphere with a high mean molecular weight and/or clouds, or no atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Potential Vorticity Mixing in a Tangled Magnetic Field

A theory of potential vorticity (PV) mixing in a disordered (tangled) magnetic field is introduced. The analysis is in the context of β -plane MHD, with a special focus on the physics of momentum transport in the stably stratified, quasi-2D solar tachocline. A physical picture of mean PV evolution by vorticity advection and tilting of magnetic fields is proposed. In the case of weak field perturbations, quasi-linear theory predicts that the Reynolds and magnetic stresses balance as turbulence Alfvénizes for a larger mean magnetic field. Jet formation is explored quantitatively in the mean field–resistivity parameter space. However, since even a modest mean magnetic field leads to large magnetic perturbations for large magnetic Reynolds number, the physically relevant case is that of a strong but disordered field. We show that numerical calculations indicate that the Reynolds stress is modified well before Alfvénization—i.e., before fluid and magnetic energies balance. To understand these trends, a double-average model of PV mixing in a stochastic magnetic field is developed. Calculations indicate that mean-square fields strongly modify Reynolds stress phase coherence and also induce a magnetic drag on zonal flows. The physics of transport reduction by tangled fields is elucidated and linked to the related quench of turbulent resistivity. We propose here a physical picture of the system as a resisto-elastic medium threaded by a tangled magnetic network. Applications of the theory to momentum transport in the tachocline and other systems are discussed in detail.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol size distribution properties associated with cold-air outbreaks in the Norwegian Arctic

The aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation and ice nuclei contribute to key cloud processes associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) events but are poorly constrained in climate models due to sparse observations. Here we retrieve aerosol number size distribution modes from measurements at Andenes, Norway, during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) and at Zeppelin Observatory, approximately 1000 km upwind from Andenes at Svalbard. During CAO events at Andenes, the sea-spray-mode number concentration is correlated with strong over-ocean winds with a mean of 8±4 cm −3 that is 71 % higher than during non-CAO conditions. Additionally, during CAO events at Andenes, the mean Hoppel minimum diameter is 6 nm smaller than during non-CAO conditions, though the estimated supersaturation is lower, and the mean number concentration of particles that likely activated in-cloud is 109±61 cm −3 with no statistically significant difference from the non-CAO mean of 99±66 cm −3 . For CAO trajectories between Zeppelin Observatory and Andenes, the upwind-to-downwind change in number concentration is the largest for the accumulation mode with a mean decrease of 93±95 cm −3 , likely attributable primarily to precipitation scavenging. These characteristic properties of aerosol number size distributions during CAO events provide guidance for evaluating CAO aerosol–cloud interaction processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detection of multi-modal Doppler spectra – Part 1: Establishing characteristic signals in radar moment data

Vertically pointing millimeter-wavelength radars provide a wealth of information about cloud and precipitation particle properties. Doppler spectral data can inform on how particles of varying vertical velocities contribute to the total backscattered power observed. It is more computationally cost effective to process moment data instead of spectra data, but doing so leaves valuable information on the cutting room floor. To confidently identify a multi-modal spectra event, in which two or more modes are present within a layer, Doppler spectral data are essential. This means long-term identification of layers featuring multi-modal spectra can be cost prohibitive. To address this, we explore three multi-modal spectra cases from winter precipitation events to determine characteristic signatures of these layers in the moment data averaged over short time periods (∼ 145 s) and explore how these layers differ from the rest of the vertical profiles. We find that the mean spectrum width and the standard deviation of mean Doppler velocity can be used to determine whether or not a layer is multi-modal. In particular, multi-modal layers in mixed-phase and ice clouds feature larger mean spectrum width (exceeding 0.17 m s −1 ) and smaller standard deviation of the mean Doppler velocity (below 0.1 m s −1 ). In Part 1 of this study, the identification criteria and methods are described. In Part 2 (Wugofski and Kumjian, 2025), we perform a verification of the method for three years of vertically pointing radar data, and explore the meteorological conditions associated with identified multi-modal spectral events.

Wugofski, Sarah [Pennsylvania State Univ., Univers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum dynamics of a nucleon in the Fermi accelerator

Highlights: • In nuclear physics, the Fermi accelerator is a coherent open quantum system. • There is not a true equilibrium for a nucleon‘s mean-energy in the Fermi accelerator. • Occupation of higher energy eigen-states remains even after the mean-energy plateaus. • This work paves the way for work on quantum tunnelling in the Fermi accelerator. The quantum dynamics of a particle in a one-dimensional box with an oscillating wall (the Fermi accelerator) is investigated. The model is applied to the motion of a single nucleon in the mean-field potential of a heavy atomic nucleus whose surface vibrates. By directly solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, both the state of the particle and its mean-energy are studied. The effects of the frequency of the wall oscillation on the nucleon’s energy are addressed. Its energy oscillates in phase with the moving wall for all frequencies, showing no chaotic behaviour. There is a large initial peak of the nucleon’s energy as the particle adjusts to the sudden change in the size of the box and a varying relaxation time as it plateaus towards lower energy and a partial equilibrium. Small oscillations in energy continue, since there cannot be a true equilibrium while the wall is moving. The quantum coherence between the different parts of the nucleon’s wave-function in real space is very much preserved. This research lays the foundation for future investigations into quantum tunnelling in the Fermi accelerator.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability metrics and their management implications for open pond algae cultivation

The prevalence of contaminating organisms in outdoor algae cultivation, with the often-associated dramatic crop failures, necessitates the need for metrics describing production system reliability. Standard metrics for algae cultivation reliability are critically needed to be able to map improvements in operational parameters, but do not currently exist. In this work, we present a set of standard metrics including mean time to failure (MTTF) and mean time between failures (MTBF) as the basis for the calculation of pond failure rate (FR) and reliability coefficient (RC). Metrics associated with the numbers of contaminating organisms such as abundance ratio (AR), prevalence of infection (PI), and mean intensity of infection (MII) are also relevant. These metrics, based on measured experimental values of outdoor pond performance during the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP3) Unified Field Studies (UFS), provide a basis for quantifying pond failure and provide insight into potential pond management and contaminant mitigation strategies. From these reliability metrics applied to this dataset, we are able to link operational parameters, such as harvest frequency and inoculum source, to pond reliability for different algae strains and seasons, and from an assessment of AR, provide contamination thresholds beyond which a culture may be unrecoverable. Ultimately, the implementation of widely-practiced and simple-to-calculate algae pond reliability metrics calculated from rapid and easy to collect data or observations will reduce risk and uncertainty in large-scale algae deployment and aid in the development of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sampling and resolution characteristics in reduced order models of shallow water equations: Intrusive vs nonintrusive

We investigate the sensitivity of reduced order models (ROMs) to training data spatial resolution as well as sampling rate. In particular, we consider proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), coupled with Galerkin projection (POD-GP), as an intrusive reduced order modeling technique. For non-intrusive ROMs, we consider two frameworks. The first is using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and the second is based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). For ANN, we utilized a residual deep neural network, and for DMD we have studied two versions of DMD approaches; one with hard thresholding and the other with sorted bases selection. Also, we highlight the differences between mean-subtracting the data (centering) and using the data without mean-subtraction. We tested these ROMs using a system of 2D shallow water equations for four different numerical experiments, adopting combinations of sampling rates and spatial resolutions. For these cases, we found that the DMD basis obtained with hard threshodling is sensitive to sampling rate. The sorted DMD algorithm helps to mitigate this problem and yields more stabilized and converging solution. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both DMD approaches without mean subtraction provide significantly more accurate results than DMD with mean-subtracting the data. On the other hand, POD is relatively insensitive to sampling rate and yields better representation of the flow field. Meanwhile, spatial resolution has little effect on both POD and DMD performances. Here, the numerical results reveal that an ANN on POD subspace (POD-ANN) performs remarkably better than POD-GP and DMD in capturing system dynamics, even with a small number of modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A semi–automatic analytical methodology for characterizing the energy consumption of MRI systems using load duration curves

Background and purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from the healthcare sector, and efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption rely on quantification of the characteristics of energy consumption. The purpose of this work was to develop a semi-automatic analytical methodology for the characterization of the energy consumption of MRI systems using only the load duration curve (LDC). LDCs are a fundamental tool used across various fields to analyze and understand the behavior of loads over time. Methods: An electric current transformer sensor and data logger were installed on two 3T MRI scanners from two vendors, termed M1 (outpatient scanner) and M2 (inpatient/emergency scanner). Data was collected for 1 month (7/11/2023 to 8/11/2023). Active power was calculated, assuming a balanced three-phase system, using the average current measured across all three phases, a 480 V reference voltage for both machines, and vendor-provided power factors. An LDC was constructed for each system by sorting the active power values in descending order and computing the cumulative time (in units of percentage) for each data point. The first derivative of the LDC was then computed (LDC’), smoothed by convolution with a window function (sLDC’), and used to detect transitions between different system modes including (in descending power levels): scan, prepared-to-scan, idle, low-power, and off. The final, segmented LDC was used to measure time (% total time), total energy (kWh), and mean power (kW) for each system mode on both scanners. The method was validated by comparing mean power values, computed using the segmented 1-month LDC, for each nonproductive system mode (i.e., prepared-to-scan, idle, lower-power, and off) against power levels measured after a deliberate system shutdown was performed for each scanner (1 day worth of data). Results: The validation revealed differences in mean power values <1.4% for all nonproductive modes and both scanners. In the scan system mode, the mean power values ranged from 29.8 to 37.2 kW and the total energy consumed for 1 month ranged from 11 106 to 14 466 kWh depending on the scanner. Over the course of 1 month, the portion of time the scanners were in nonproductive modes ranged from 76% to 80% across scanners and the nonproductive energy consumption ranged from 8010 to 6722 kWh depending on the scanner. The M1 (outpatient) scanner consumed 99.9 and 183.9 kWh/day in idle mode for weekdays and weekends, respectively, because the scanner spent 23% more time proportionally in idle mode on the weekends. Conclusions: A semi-automatic method for quantifying energy consumption characteristics of MRI scanners was introduced and validated. This method is relatively simple to implement as it requires only power data from the scanners and avoids the technical challenges associated with extracting and processing scanner log files. Finally, the methodology enables quantitative evaluation of the power, time, and energy characteristics of MRI scanners in scan and nonproductive system modes, providing baseline data and the capability of identifying potential opportunities for enhancing the energy efficiency of MRI scanners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Analysis of the Relative Dispersion of Droplet-Size Distributions and Their Relationships to Key Physical Fog Processes Under Different Aerosol Conditions and Evolutionary Stages

The relative dispersion of cloud and fog droplets has significant impacts on aerosol indirect effects, radiative transfer, and microphysical processes. However, previous studies have been mostly concerned with clouds, with limited studies on fog, particularly those that examine the combined influences of all key physical processes and their roles during fog evolution. As such, this study aims to conduct a comprehensive investigation by examining the relationships between relative dispersion and other microphysical variables, as well as the underlying microphysical and dynamic processes, based on field fog campaigns in polluted and clean conditions. In polluted fog, droplet concentrations are higher, leading to smaller droplets and increased dispersion. The correlation between dispersion and droplet volume-mean radius is positive in the polluted fog, but shifts to negative in clean fog. Here, we attribute the difference to various microphysical processes like aerosol activation, condensation, collision-coalescence, and entrainment-mixing. In polluted fog, high aerosol concentrations, low supersaturations, and strong turbulence (entrainment-mixing) provide suitable conditions for the simultaneous occurrence of droplet condensation and aerosol activation, resulting in a positive correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius, especially during the fog formation stage. In contrast, during the mature stage in clean fog, condensation is dominant with weak aerosol activation leading to a negative correlation between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius. The collision-coalescence process is more active in the mature stage, increasing radii and leading to the negative correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius. This result sheds new light on understanding the relative dispersion and mechanisms in fog under different aerosol backgrounds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic economic dispatch of wind power under uncertainty using clustering-based extreme scenarios

Operation of power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy sources requires tools for robust decision making under uncertainty. Stochastic economic dispatch and stochastic unit commitment are effective techniques for planning and operation under uncertainty, whose effectiveness depends on the cardinality and quality of the scenario set. Here, this article proposes a machine learning method using -means clustering for capturing relevant physical information from a large population of analog scenarios. Extreme scenario samples drawn from the clusters are used in a two-stage stochastic economic dispatch computation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is assessed on a synthetic 200-bus system with a geographic footprint over Illinois, USA for four months from each season of WIND Toolkit data. The combination of -means clustering with importance sampling is shown to reduce the total operational cost by over 43% compared to sampling from populations based on heuristic clustering-based methods. Additionally, the variability in the mean cost is about 56% lower than the variability using Monte Carlo sampling. Moreover, the operational cost with the presented approach is shown to be close to the cost calculated based on a hindsight exact wind profile, signifying a highly accurate quantification of wind uncertainty by the presented -means clustering based sampling method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗