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DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Earthquake Source Characterization

Abstract Accurate earthquake location and magnitude estimation play critical roles in seismology. Recent deep learning frameworks have produced encouraging results on various seismological tasks (e.g., earthquake detection, phase picking, seismic classification, and earthquake early warning). Many existing machine learning earthquake location methods utilize waveform information from a single station. However, multiple stations contain more complete information for earthquake source characterization. Inspired by recent successes in applying graph neural networks (GNNs) in graph‐structured data, we develop a Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (STGNN) for estimating earthquake locations and magnitudes. Our graph neural network leverages geographical and waveform information from multiple stations to construct graphs automatically and dynamically by adaptive message passing based on graphs' edges. Using a recent graph neural network and a fully convolutional neural network as baselines, we apply STGNN to earthquakes recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network from 2000 to 2019 and earthquakes collected in Oklahoma from 2014 to 2015. STGNN yields more accurate earthquake locations than those obtained by the baseline models and performs comparably in terms of depth and magnitude prediction, though the ability to predict depth and magnitude remains weak for all tested models. Our work demonstrates the potential of using GNNs and multiple stations for better automatic estimation of earthquake epicenters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Absolute colors and phase coefficients of asteroids

Context: We use the phase curves of small bodies to measure absolute magnitudes and, together with complementary theoretical and laboratory results, to understand the micro- and macroscopic properties of their surfaces. Although we can observe asteroids up to phase angles of about 30 deg, the range of phase angles covered by outer Solar System objects usually does not go further than 7-10 deg for centaurs and 2 deg for trans-Neptunian objects, and a linear relation between magnitude and phase angle may be assumed. Aims: We aim to directly compare data taken for objects in the inner Solar System (inside the orbit of Jupiter) with data for centaurs and trans-Neptunian objects. Methods: We use the SLOAN Moving Objects Catalog (MOC) data to construct phase curves restricted to phase angles of less than or equal to 7.5 deg, which is compatible with the angles observed for the trans-Neptunian and Centaur population. We assume a linear model for the photometric behavior to obtain absolute magnitudes and phase coefficients in the ugirz, V, and R filters. Results: We obtain absolute magnitudes in seven filters for over 4000 objects. Our comparison with outer Solar System objects suggests the surfaces have a common property: intrinsically redder objects become blue with increasing phase angle, while the opposite happens for intrinsically bluer objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring of asteroids in cometary orbits and activated asteroids through archival images and new observations

Transitional objects are minor bodies that share some characteristics with asteroids and others with comets. These objects include asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs), which behave dynamically like comets, but lack observed activity, while activated asteroids (AAs) follow typical asteroidal orbits, but have shown dust ejections. The monitoring of a set of these objects carried out in 2015 and 2016 is continued using archival images from various observatories and new data from the IMPACTON telescope in Brazil. Two techniques were applied to detect activity: (i) surface brightness profiles were compared with those of field stars to identify widening, and (ii) the magnitudes reported in the Minor Planet Center, combined with our observations, were reduced and analyzed to identify abrupt brightness increases as a function of heliocentric distance. We analyzed the surface brightness profiles of 133 ACOs and 7 AAs. To study the reduced magnitude, we obtained data from the 705 ACOs that were known at the time of the analysis. Together with the data from our previous work, our analysis covered 23% of the total known ACOs; 8 deviated slightly in the surface brightness profile, 6 brightened in the reduced magnitude, and one object is in common in both samples. A very low percentage of objects might show activity (4% of the sample with brightness profiles and <1% in the reduced magnitudes). These results would rule out a slow transition from active to inert. Regarding AAs, 4 showed activity, and 3 of them matched previously reported periods, while the data we analyzed for P/2015 X 6 were obtained 19 days before the first existing activity report. The activity episodes of these objects are very restricted in time and do not always occur in the same region of the orbit.

asteroids: general↗

DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic reconnection and thermal equilibration

When a magnetic field is forced to evolve on a time scale sev, as by footpoint motions driving the solar corona or non-axisymmetric instabilities in tokamaks, the magnetic field lines undergo large-scale changes in topology on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than $\tau$ ev . But the physics that allows such changes operates on a time scale eight or more orders of magnitude slower. An analogous phenomenon occurs in air. Temperature equilibration occurs on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than it takes air to cross a room, $\tau$ ev , although the physical mechanism that allows temperature equilibration is approximately four orders of magnitude slower than $\tau$ ev . The use of Lagrangian coordinates allows the fundamental equations to be solved and both phenomena explained. The theories of thermal equilibration and magnetic reconnection are developed in parallel to help readers obtain an understanding of the importance and implications of analyses using Lagrangian coordinates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating dielectric spectra: A demonstration of the direct electric field method and a new model for the nonlinear dielectric response

Here we demonstrate a method to compute the dielectric spectra of fluids in molecular dynamics (MD) by directly applying electric fields to the simulation. We obtain spectra from MD simulations with low magnitude electric fields (≈0.01 V/Å) in agreement with spectra from the fluctuation–dissipation method for water and acetonitrile. We examine this method’s trade-off between noise at low field magnitudes and the nonlinearity of the response at higher field magnitudes. We then apply the Booth equation to describe the nonlinear response of both fluids at low frequency (0.1 GHz) and high field magnitude (up to 0.5 V/Å). We develop a model of the frequency-dependent nonlinear response by combining the Booth description of the static nonlinear dielectric response of fluids with the frequency-dependent linear dielectric response of the Debye model. We find good agreement between our model and the MD simulations of the nonlinear dielectric response for both acetonitrile and water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Validation of density pump-out by pedestal-foot magnetic island formation prior to ELM suppression in KSTAR and DIII-D tokamaks

Abstract TM1 nonlinear two-fluid simulations reveal key characteristics of density pump-out caused by pedestal-foot island formation when applying resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP). These characteristics include a bifurcation in pump-out with a low RMP coil current threshold, a sensitivity of pump-out magnitude to q 95 , and the magnitude of pump-out scaling as the square root of the RMP coil current. Dedicated experiments are carried out in the KSTAR and DIII-D tokamaks to validate these features and show that: (1) a staircase bifurcation in density pump-out is observed when slowly ramping up the n = 1 RMP current, and the density fluctuations are found to be slightly decreased from the pedestal-foot to the pedestal-top; (2) the magnitude of density pump-out becomes weaker when decreasing q 95 from 5.5 to 4.9, and a partial recovery of density pump-out is observed when q 95 is ramped down to lower than 4.9; and (3) analysis of a DIII-D database of n = 3 RMP edge-localized mode control experiments finds that the magnitude of density pump-out is proportional to the square root of RMP coil current Δ n e / n e ∝ I RMP 0.5 . These experimental observations are consistent with TM1 simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive earthquake catalogue update and spatiotemporal distribution analysis for Iraq and surrounding regions, northeastern Arabian Plate

The updated earthquake catalogue for Iraq covers the period from 1900 to the end of 2021 and includes over 37 000 recorded earthquakes. To create this comprehensive catalogue, five key steps were taken: compiling bulletins, calculating moment magnitudes, harmonizing magnitudes, establishing empirical conversion relations and evaluating the completeness of the catalogue. A notable enhancement in this update is the direct calculation of moment magnitudes for approximately 2800 earthquakes, achieved through the coda envelope technique and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq. This updated catalogue serves as a valuable resource for examining the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, with respect to earthquake density, maximum moment magnitude and seismogenic depths. Additionally, the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was applied to calculate the a- and b-values specific to Iraq. The findings show that the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt has a seismogenic layer (source) that ranges from 2 to 33 km deep and experiences high seismic activity. In contrast, the Mesopotamian Foredeep has a seismogenic layer ranging from 1 to 25 km deep and has lower seismic activity. The greatest seismic activity is concentrated around the Mandili-Badra-Teeb fault, which has experienced significant ruptures over time. The Outer Arabian Platform is identified as the main area of seismic activity, while additional activity occurs on the Inner Arabian Platform. Three major tectonic boundaries define the distribution of earthquakes in the northeastern Arabian Plate. These boundaries are defined by the Main Zagros Reverse Fault, the Zagros Foredeep Fault and the Anah Graben and Abu Jir-Euphrates Fault Zone. These boundaries highlight variations in seismicity levels and the spatial distribution of deformation in the region. The updated earthquake catalogue presented in this study is expected to play a vital role in regional seismicity assessments and seismic hazard analyses for Iraq and its surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impedance-Based Prediction of SSR-Generated Harmonics in Doubly-Fed Induction Generators

Doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) are prone to subsynchronous resonance (SSR) with series-compensated transmission lines and experiencing SSR-generated harmonics of wide-ranging magnitudes. This paper presents a large-signal impedance-based approach for the prediction of the magnitude of SSR-generated harmonics in DFIGs. Note that the large-signal impedance of a network shows variation in its impedance response with the magnitude of perturbation at its terminals. It is discovered in this paper that the impedance of a series-compen- sated transmission line starts changing with the magnitude of SSR because of the metal-oxide varistor-based protection of series capacitors in the line. The changing line impedance halts the growth of the SSR beyond a certain point, where the DFIG forms a limit-cycle mode and emits harmonics at the SSR frequency. The discovered role of the protection of series capacitors in SSR not only enables the prediction of SSR-generated harmonics but also can be used for the timely detection of an SSR event to avoid system disruption and sudden loss of bulk generation. The large- signal impedance-based prediction of SSR-generated harmonics in DFIG-based wind and hydro generators is demonstrated using numerical simulations of a 2.5-MVA, 690-V DFIG supplying to a series-compensated transmission line.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unexpected Scaling of Peak Acceleration for a Yielding Mass-Spring System Subjected to a Triangular Base Acceleration Pulse

The use of bounding scenarios is a common practice that greatly simplifies the design and qualification of structures. However, this approach implicitly assumes that the quantities of interest increase monotonically with the input to the structure, which is not necessarily true for nonlinear structures. This paper surveys the literature for observations of nonmonotonic behavior of nonlinear systems and finds such observations in both the earthquake engineering and applied mechanics literature. Numerical simulations of a single degree-of-freedom mass-spring system with an elastic–plastic spring subjected to a triangular base acceleration pulse are then presented, and it is shown that the relative acceleration of this system scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude in some cases. The equation of motion for this system is solved symbolically and an approximate expression for the relative acceleration is developed, which qualitatively agrees with the nonmonotonic behavior seen in the numerical results. The nonmonotonicity is investigated and found to be a result of dynamics excited by the discontinuous derivative of the base acceleration pulse, the magnitude of which scales nonmonotonically with the input magnitude due to the fact that the first yield of the spring occurs earlier as the input magnitude is increased. The relevance of this finding within the context of defining bounding scenarios is discussed, and it is recommended that modeling be used to perform a survey of the full range of possible inputs prior to defining bounding scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Does Vertical Wind Shear Influence Updraft Characteristics and Hydrometeor Distributions in Supercell Thunderstorms?

Abstract Vertical wind shear is known to affect supercell thunderstorms by displacing updraft hydrometeor mass downshear, thereby facilitating the storms’ longevity. Shear also impacts the size of supercell updrafts, with stronger shear leading to wider, less dilute, and stronger updrafts with likely greater hydrometeor production. To more clearly define the role of shear across different vertical layers on hydrometeor concentrations and displacements relative to supercell updrafts, a suite of idealized numerical model simulations of supercells was conducted. Shear magnitudes were systematically varied across the 0–1, 1–6, and 6–12 km AGL layers, while the thermodynamic environment was held fixed. Simulations show that as shear magnitude increases, especially from 1 to 6 km, updrafts become wider and less dilute with an increase in hydrometeor loading, along with an increase in the low-level precipitation area/rate and total precipitation accumulation. Even with greater updraft hydrometeor loading amid stronger shear, updrafts are more intense in stronger shear simulations due to larger thermal buoyancy owing to wider, less dilute updraft cores. Furthermore, downshear hydrometeor displacements are larger in environments with stronger 1–6-km shear. In contrast, there is relatively less sensitivity of hydrometeor concentrations and displacements to variations in either 0–1- or 6–12-km shear. Results are consistent across free tropospheric relative humidity sensitivity simulations, which show an increase in updraft size and hydrometeor mass with increasing free tropospheric relative humidity owing to a reduction in entrainment-driven dilution for wider updrafts in moister environments. Significance Statement Rotating thunderstorms, known as supercells, are able to persist for multiple hours. One common explanation is that large changes in wind speed and/or direction with height, or shear, transport rain/hail away from supercell updrafts, supporting their maintenance. The strong shear within supercell environments, however, may also lead to greater rail/hail amounts, thereby leading to weaker storms due to this extra mass of water/ice within updrafts. Furthermore, the impact of shear across different height layers on supercell rain/hail characteristics has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, computer simulations of supercells were conducted to determine that shear occurring between 1 and 6 km above ground level has a large impact on rain/hail distribution in supercells and that stronger shear in this layer leads to wider/stronger supercells with greater rain/hail accumulations at the surface. Additionally, some of the extra mass of water/ice is transported farther away from updrafts due to the stronger environmental storm-relative winds.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Chance-Constrained Design of Voltage Droop Control for Distribution Networks: Preprint

This paper addresses the design of local control methods for voltage control in distribution networks with high level of distributed energy resources (DERs). The designed control methods adapt the active and reactive power output of distributed energy resources proportional to the deviation of the local measured voltage magnitudes from a reference voltage, which is referred to as droop control. Thus, the design focuses on determining the droop characteristics which satisfy network-wide voltage magnitude constraints. The uncertainty and variability of DERs renders the design of optimal droop controls very challenging. Hence, this paper proposes chance constraints to limit the risk from intermittent DERs, by designing droop control coefficients that guarantee the satisfaction of network operational constraints with a specific probability. In addition, the proposed approach relies entirely on historical data rather than assuming knowledge of the probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty of DERs. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a 37-bus distribution feeder.

chance-constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Grain Boundary Misorientation on Spall Strength in Ta via Shock-Free Simulations with Relatively Few Atoms

A suite of 37 molecular dynamics simulations is conducted at two system sizes to systematically characterize the role of grain boundary (GB) misorientation on spall strength in pure BCC tantalum (Ta). The systems studied consist of bicrystals with a single [110] symmetric tilt grain boundary. Two loading conditions are compared: (i) homogeneous extension under uniaxial strain simulated in this study and (ii) piston/flyer impact of sample, which induces heterogeneous deformation via shockwave propagation along the length of the sample. The piston/flyer impact is taken from the literature and run on the same set of GB misorientation angles using LAMMPS. The major finding here is that both methods result in similar spall strength predictions, but the homogeneous extension method generally requires two to three orders of magnitude fewer atoms and similar reductions in computational costs. Spall strength results systematically overpredict using this method, by about 10% for the dataset three orders of magnitude smaller than piston/flyer simulations, and 5% for the dataset two orders of magnitude smaller. Lastly, the effect of system size and pre-compression magnitude on spall strength is systematically characterized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Galaxy–Halo Connection of DESI Luminous Red Galaxies with Subhalo Abundance Matching

Abstract We use subhalo abundance and age distribution matching to create magnitude-limited mock galaxy catalogs at z ∼ 0.43, 0.52, and 0.63 with z -band and 3.4 μ m W 1-band absolute magnitudes and r − z and r − W 1 colors. From these magnitude-limited mocks, we select mock luminous red galaxy (LRG) samples according to the ( r − z )-based (optical) and ( r − W 1)-based (infrared) selection criteria for the LRG sample of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. Our models reproduce the number densities, luminosity functions, color distributions, and projected clustering of the DESI Legacy Surveys that are the basis for DESI LRG target selection. We predict the halo occupation statistics of both optical and IR DESI LRGs at fixed cosmology and assess the differences between the two LRG samples. We find that IR-based SHAM modeling represents the differences between the optical and IR LRG populations better than using the z band and that age distribution matching overpredicts the clustering of LRGs, implying that galaxy color is uncorrelated with halo age in the LRG regime. Both the optical and IR DESI LRG target selections exclude some of the most luminous galaxies that would appear to be LRGs based on their position on the red sequence in optical color–magnitude space. Both selections also yield populations with a nontrivial LRG–halo connection that does not reach unity for the most massive halos. We find that the IR selection achieves greater completeness (≳90%) than the optical selection across all redshift bins studied.

Berti, Angela M. (ORCID:0000000335826649)↗

NASA NTRS1975

A survey of long term interplanetary magnetic field variations

Interplanetary magnetic field data from 10 IMP, AIMP, and HEOS spacecraft were merged into a composite data set spanning 1963 to 1974. A consideration of the mutual consistency of the individual data sets reveals agreement typically to within 0.2 gamma. Composite data set analysis reveals: (1) whereas the yearly averaged magnitudes of all field vectors show virtually no solar cycle variation, the yearly averaged magnitudes of positive- and negative-polarity field vectors show separate solar cycle variations, consistent with variations in the average azimuthal angles of positive- and negative-polarity field vectors, (2) there is no heliolatitude dependence of long time average field magnitudes, (3) field vectors parallel to the earth-sun line are on the average 1 gamma less in magnitude than field vectors perpendicular to this line, and (4) the heliolatitude-dependent dominant polarity effect exhibits a complex sign reversal in the 1968 to 1971 period and a measure of symmetry in 1972 to 1974 not found in earlier data.

King, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A survey of long-term interplanetary magnetic field variations

Interplanetary-magnetic-field data from the IMP-10, IMP-A, and Heos spacecraft have been merged into a composite data set spanning the period from 1963 to 1974. Consideration of the mutual consistency of the individual data sets reveals agrement typically to within 0.2 gamma. Analysis of the composite data set reveals the following: (1) although the yearly averaged magnitudes of all field vectors show virtually no solar-cycle variation, the yearly averaged magnitudes of positive- and negative-polarity field vectors show separate solar-cycle variations consistent with variations in the average azimuthal angles of positive- and negative-polarity field vectors; (2) there is no solar latitude dependence of long-time average field magnitudes; (3) field vectors parallel to the earth-sun line are on the average 1 gamma less in magnitude than field vectors perpendicular to this line; and (4) the solar latitude-dependent dominant polarity effect exhibits a complex sign reversal in the period from 1968 to 1971 and a measure of symmetry in 1972 through 1974 not found in earlier data.

King, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The S sub 10 /V/ unit of surface brightness

Some discrepancies in the use of the unit of zodiacal light measurements - S sub 10 (V), which is the equivalent number of tenth magnitude stars of solar spectral type per square degree - are discussed. It is suggested that: (1) the S sub 10 (V) unit be understood to represent 10th magnitude solar (G2V) stars per square degree at mean solar distance, (2) the V refers to the visual color in the UBV system defined by Johnson and Morgan (1953), (3) the apparent solar visual magnitude be taken as -26.73 and the B-V index as .63, (4) the solar spectral irradiance values of Labs and Neckel (1970) be used, and (5) when using Vega as a standard to obtain brightnesses in S sub 10 (V), +.04 be used as its magnitude at all wavelengths and the irradiance values of Hayes and Latham (1975) be used.

Sparrow, J. G.↗