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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1973

An empirical Bayes approach for the Poisson life distribution.

A smooth empirical Bayes estimator is derived for the intensity parameter (hazard rate) in the Poisson distribution as used in life testing. The reliability function is also estimated either by using the empirical Bayes estimate of the parameter, or by obtaining the expectation of the reliability function. The behavior of the empirical Bayes procedure is studied through Monte Carlo simulation in which estimates of mean-squared errors of the empirical Bayes estimators are compared with those of conventional estimators such as minimum variance unbiased or maximum likelihood. Results indicate a significant reduction in mean-squared error of the empirical Bayes estimators over the conventional variety.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Atmospheric effects on cluster analyses

Ground reflected radiance, from which information is extracted through techniques of cluster analyses for remote sensing application, is altered by the atmosphere when it reaches the satellite. Therefore it is essential to understand the effects of the atmosphere on Landsat measurements, cluster characteristics and analysis accuracy. A doubling model is employed to compute the effective reflectivity, observed from the satellite, as a function of ground reflectivity, solar zenith angle and aerosol optical thickness for standard atmosphere. The relation between the effective reflectivity and ground reflectivity is approximately linear. It is shown that for a horizontally homogeneous atmosphere, the classification statistics from a maximum likelihood classifier remains unchanged under these transforms. If inhomogeneity is present, the divergence between clusters is reduced, and correlation between spectral bands increases. Radiance reflected by the background area surrounding the target may also reach the satellite. The influence of background reflectivity on effective reflectivity is discussed.

Kiang, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surface science of shape-selective metal nanocrystal synthesis from first-principles: Growth of Cu nanowires and nanocubes

The authors present results from first-principles density functional theory aimed at understanding the aqueous solution-phase growth of fivefold twinned copper nanowires and single-crystal nanocubes capped by hexadecylamine (HDA). The role of solution-phase chloride, present in the Cu salt or as an additive, is emphasized. Using ab initio thermodynamics, the authors delineate the range of solution-phase conditions, characterized by the chemical potentials of chloride and HDA, under which Cu nanowires and nanocubes can be grown. The authors discuss the likelihood of thermodynamic and/or kinetic nanostructures for various solution-phase concentrations. Their results are in good agreement with experiments and indicate that methods and insights developed for surface science in gas-phase or vacuum conditions can yield much insight into liquid-phase systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Efficiency Gain in 2D Perovskite Photo and X‐Ray Detectors

Abstract The perovskite polycrystalline thin film detector fabricated by solution method is a promising low‐cost, scalable technology for radiation imaging, but its thin volume limits the sensing efficiency for high‐energy X‐ray photons. This work reports 2D perovskite thin film photo‐diodes with a detection gain when sensing visible and X‐ray photons. Detailed power and temperature‐dependent device characterizations reveal a charge multiplication effect to be responsible for the observed high gain. This is caused by a disparity in electron and hole transport, where electron transport is retarded by a trap/de‐trap process via shallow trap states, whereas the hole transport is fast enough to produce a photoconductive gain in satisfying the charge neutrality. The 2D perovskite made with butylamine spacers is also found to exhibit a larger efficiency gain than those made with phenylethylamines because of the higher likelihood of forming shallow traps in the former. The thin film diodes feature a high temporal response over 1 MHz due to the fast charge collection across a thin volume, and the discovery provides device physics mechanisms in connection to material structure‐function relationship for future optoelectronics design that can boost the efficiency of X‐ray sensing and dim light detection.

2D perovskites↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of hurricane disturbances on a tropical forest: implementing a palm plant functional type and hurricane disturbance module in ED2-HuDi V1.0

Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency and intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances to tropical forests have been widely studied, but the long-term impacts are rarely investigated. Modeling is critical to investigate the potential response of forests to future disturbances, particularly if the nature of the disturbances is changing with climate. Unfortunately, existing models of forest dynamics are not presently able to account for hurricane disturbances. Therefore, we implement the Hurricane Disturbance in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) (ED2-HuDi). The hurricane disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate mortality and subsequent recovery modules. The parameterizations are based on observations at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type (PFT) to the model – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into one of the current existing PFTs and are known to be an abundant component of tropical forests worldwide. The model is calibrated with observations at BEW using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error of –21 %, –12 %, and –15 % for stem density, basal area, and aboveground biomass, respectively. The optimal simulation also agrees well with the observation in terms of PFT composition (+1 %, –8 %, –2 %, and +9 % differences in the percentages of “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, and “Palm” PFTs, respectively) and size structure of the forest (+0.8 % differences in the percentage of large stems). Lastly, using the optimal parameter set, we study the impact of forest initial condition on the recovery of the forest from a single hurricane disturbance. The results indicate that, compared to a no-hurricane scenario, a single hurricane disturbance has little impact on forest structure (+1 % change in the percentage of large stems) and composition (<1 % change in the percentage of each of the four PFTs) but leads to 5 % higher aboveground biomass after 80 years of succession. The assumption of a less severe hurricane disturbance leads to a 4 % increase in aboveground biomass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Detection and Estimation of an Optical Image by Photon-Counting Techniques

Statistical description of a photoelectric detector is given. The photosensitive surface of the detector is divided into many small areas, and the moment generating function of the photo-counting statistic is derived for large time-bandwidth product. The detection of a specified optical image in the presence of the background light by using the hypothesis test is discussed. The ideal detector based on the likelihood ratio from a set of numbers of photoelectrons ejected from many small areas of the photosensitive surface is studied and compared with the threshold detector and a simple detector which is based on the likelihood ratio by counting the total number of photoelectrons from a finite area of the surface. The intensity of the image is assumed to be Gaussian distributed spatially against the uniformly distributed background light. The numerical approximation by the method of steepest descent is used, and the calculations of the reliabilities for the detectors are carried out by a digital computer.

Wang, Lily Lee↗
NASA NTRS2019

Method for Tracking and Communicating Aggregate Risk Through the Use of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Tools

Large, complex projects can identify a significant number and variety of risks, throughout the project life cycle. These risks are analyzed, mitigated, closed or accepted as independent uncertainties. Once closed or accepted, it is easy for projects to lose awareness of their impact. In reality, each of these risks contributes some amount to the overall risk posture of the project. The ability to track and effectively communicate this aggregate risk has represented a challenge to project management. There have been previous attempts to create a schema to communicate the aggregate effect of risks, without notable success. Most of these attempts have centered on some additive metric derived from the scoring of likelihood and consequence values. This, in and of itself, is a logical approach, but all too often the scores were then aggregated to a level where all context was lost. One weakness has been a lack of attempt to create linkages or logical groups of the risks upon which useful aggregation could then occur. The overall move to model-based (systems) engineering (MBSE) has opened up a vast frontier of opportunities to better integrate all project data. MBSE provides an underlying layer that links data items to each other. Objectives link to requirements, which then link to functions, functions to physical architecture items, and so on, as far down as projects want to model. While it started with a focus on modeling requirements based on things like use cases, efforts are now underway to integrate safety and mission assurance (S&MA) information and analyses, such as risks. This effort, called Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA), is yielding models that are more useful and are a more accurate representations of the systems. MBSE models, with this ability to link related items, provide a new means of tracking and communicating aggregate risks. In the proposed method, risks are added into the models as distinct items, having attributes that communicate a scoring derived from the likelihood and consequence values as charted on the standard NASA 5x5 risk matrix. Like earlier efforts, each box in the 5x5 has an associated scoring, which may include both a current score and potential post-mitigation/control score. The risk items are then linked to elements of the model, such as system objectives/goals, requirements, functions, or physical architecture items, with "Risk to" relationships. These risks will then be communicated by use of reports generated from the model, detailing all risks and/or hazards linked to model elements. These reports can include aggregate impacts, including a current scoring and potential future state scoring based on the planned mitigations and/or controls. These reports will show all risks, open, accepted, and closed, linked to project objectives or requirements. When run as part of an upcoming risk acceptance discussion, these reports will serve to remind the team of all previous risks that relate to the effected portion of the system. When included as part of periodic program or project reviews, risk reviews, and safety reviews, this method can improve the overall understanding of the system's true risk posture. This proposed method takes full advantage of the advances that modern modeling techniques provide, with a minimal investment of additional time. Utilizing the model environment also enables a near constant access to current state of aggregate risks.

model based mission assurance↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel symmetry-preserving neural network model for phylogenetic inference

Abstract Motivation Scientists world-wide are putting together massive efforts to understand how the biodiversity that we see on Earth evolved from single-cell organisms at the origin of life and this diversification process is represented through the Tree of Life. Low sampling rates and high heterogeneity in the rate of evolution across sites and lineages produce a phenomenon denoted “long branch attraction” (LBA) in which long nonsister lineages are estimated to be sisters regardless of their true evolutionary relationship. LBA has been a pervasive problem in phylogenetic inference affecting different types of methodologies from distance-based to likelihood-based. Results Here, we present a novel neural network model that outperforms standard phylogenetic methods and other neural network implementations under LBA settings. Furthermore, unlike existing neural network models in phylogenetics, our model naturally accounts for the tree isomorphisms via permutation invariant functions which ultimately result in lower memory and allows the seamless extension to larger trees. Availability and implementation We implement our novel theory on an open-source publicly available GitHub repository: https://github.com/crsl4/nn-phylogenetics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Heralded Single-Photon Source with a Photon-Number-Resolving Superconducting Nanowire Detector

Deterministic generation of single photons is essential for many quantum information technologies. A bulk optical nonlinearity emitting a photon pair, where the measurement of one of the photons heralds the presence of the other, is commonly used with the caveat that the single-photon emission rate is constrained due to a trade-off between multiphoton events and pair emission rate. Using an efficient and low noise photon-number-resolving superconducting nanowire detector we herald, in real time, a single photon at telecommunication wavelength. We perform a second-order photon correlation g 2 ( 0 ) measurement of the signal mode conditioned on the measured photon number of the idler mode for various pump powers and demonstrate an improvement of a heralded single-photon source. We develop an analytical model using a phase-space formalism that encompasses all multiphoton effects and relevant imperfections, such as loss and multiple Schmidt modes. We perform a maximum-likelihood fit to test the agreement of the model to the data and extract the best-fit mean photon number μ of the pair source for each pump power. A maximum reduction of 0.118 ± 0.012 in the photon g 2 ( 0 ) correlation function at μ = 0.327 ± 0.007 is obtained, indicating a strong suppression of multiphoton emissions. For a fixed g 2 ( 0 ) = 7 × 10 − 3 , we increase the single pair generation probability by 25%. Our experiment, built using fiber-coupled and off-the-shelf components, delineates a path to engineering ideal sources of single photons.

Davis, Samantha I.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Curve fitting of aeroelastic transient response data with exponential functions

The extraction of frequency, damping, amplitude, and phase information from unforced transient response data is considered. These quantities are obtained from the parameters determined by fitting the digitized time-history data in a least-squares sense with complex exponential functions. The highlights of the method are described, and the results of several test cases are presented. The effects of noise are considered both by using analytical examples with random noise and by estimating the standard deviation of the parameters from maximum-likelihood theory.

Bennett, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A search for anisotropy in the cosmic microwave radiation at medium angular scales

The results are reported from a search for anisotropy in the cosmic microwave radiation (CMR) at angular scales of 0.5 to 5 deg. No temperature fluctuations are detected, and limits are placed on intrinsic CMR anisotropy. These limits are expressed in terms of two models which describe the temperature fluctuations. For models specified by a Gaussian-shaped correlation function, the fluctuation amplitude is found to be 1.1 x 10 to the -4th or less at 1.1 deg; for models with monochromatic fluctuations it is 7.5 x 10 to the -5th or less at 1.7 deg. These limits satisfy the likelihood ratio test at the 95 percent confidence level. The implications of the results for large-scale structure information scenarios are discussed.

Timbie, Peter T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Variability of the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of peak hard X-ray rate

We study the occurrence frequency of solar flares as a function of the hard X-ray peak count rate, using observations of the Solar Maximum Mission. The size distributions are well represented by power-law distributions with negative indices. As a better alternative to the conventional method, we devise a maximum likelihood method of determining the power-law index of the size distribution. We find that the power-law index of the size distribution changes with time and with the phase of the 154-day periodicity. The size distribution is steeper during the maximum years of solar cycle 21 (1980 and 1981) than during the declining phase (1982-1984). The size distribution, however, is flatter during the maximum phase of the 154-day periodicity than during the minimum phase. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Bai, T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Current-State Constrained Filter Bank for Wald Testing of Spacecraft Conjunctions

We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Principles Study of Aluminum Doped Polycrystalline Silicon as a Potential Anode Candidate in Li‐ion Batteries

Addressing sustainable energy storage remains crucial for transitioning to renewable sources. While Li‐ion batteries have made significant contributions, enhancing their capacity through alternative materials remains a key challenge. Micro‐sized silicon is a promising anode material due to its tenfold higher theoretical capacity compared to conventional graphite. However, its substantial volumetric expansion during cycling impedes practical application due to mechanical failure and rapid capacity fading. A novel approach is proposed to mitigate this issue by incorporating trace amounts of aluminum into the micro‐sized silicon electrode using ball milling. Density functional theory (DFT) is employed to establish a theoretical framework elucidating how grain boundary sliding, a key mechanism involved in preventing mechanical failure is facilitated by the presence of trace aluminum at grain boundaries. This, in turn, reduces stress accumulation within the material, reducing the likelihood of failure. To validate the theoretical predictions, capacity retention experiments are conducted on undoped and Al‐doped micro‐sized silicon samples. In conclusion, the results demonstrate significantly reduced capacity fading in the doped sample, corroborating the theoretical framework and showcasing the potential of aluminum doping for improved Li‐ion battery performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flexible nonstationary spatiotemporal modeling of high-frequency monitoring data

Many physical datasets are generated by collections of instruments that make measurements at regular time intervals. For such regular monitoring data, we extend the framework of half-spectral covariance functions to the case of nonstationarity in space and time and demonstrate that this method provides a natural and tractable way to incorporate complex behaviors into a covariance model. Further, we use this method with fully time-domain computations to obtain bona fide maximum likelihood estimators—as opposed to using Whittle-type likelihood approximations, for example—that can still be computed conveniently. Additionally, we apply this method to very high-frequency Doppler LIDAR vertical wind velocity measurements, demonstrating that the model can expressively capture the extreme nonstationarity of dynamics above and below the atmospheric boundary layer and, more importantly, the interaction of the process dynamics across it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Structural Flexibility of Metal Chelate Complexes and Its Relation to Supramolecular Chemistry

In this study, crystal structures of metal chelate and related complexes in the Cambridge Structural Database have been analyzed, with respect to their use as components in supramolecular metal-organic compounds. In β-diketonate complexes, the distribution of angles between ligands is relatively broad; other ligands, such as 2,2'-bipyridine, yield significantly narrower distributions. According to the principle of structure correlation, these distributions reflect the ease of distorting the various families of complexes. A comparison through density functional theory calculations also indicates that angular distortions require significantly less energy for M(β-diketonate) 3 than for M(2,2'-bipyridine) 3 . The differences are likely to affect the construction of supramolecular systems from different combinations of metals and ligands, including the likelihood that the desired structures will be obtained.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗