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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ta compressibility to 20+ Mbar

Developing techniques for experimentally constraining equation of state (EOS) models for important programmatic materials under extreme conditions is vital for advancing our modeling and predictive capabilities. Tantalum is a frequently used standard material for both calibration and testing, and this report describes our work to both measure Ta compressibility to very high pressures and densities using the Ramp Compression Equation of State platform on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Using a series of seven shots, increasing in peak pressure with each shot, we have made absolute measurements of the compressibility of Ta along the ramp compression path up to 2.3 TPa. Previous experimental measurements constrained the cold compressibility up to ~400 GPa, and there is a spread in the EOS models above that pressure. To improve communication and collaboration between the experimental team and the EOS development group, these new data, along with other experimental and theoretical constraints, were used to develop a Ta equation of state table, M73000. This report first describes the experimental measurements made at the NIF, and then discusses the construction of the EOS model. The ramp compression data can be found in tabular form in Appendix A. Appendix B contains some additional experimental details. In Appendix C we include some additional details on the EOS modeling. At the end of this document, we have attached a detailed report on the NIF ramp compression platform itself and in the main text referenced specific sections for additional details.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of thermal and kinetic processes in non-equilibrium plasma ignition applied to a lean combustion engine

In recent years novel ignition systems have been developed to enable stable and efficient engine operations with lean mixtures. Among them, radio-frequency corona ignition systems create discharges that involve a much wider region compared to traditional spark, and produce non equilibrium plasma with high levels of active radicals and excited species. These devices considerably increase the early flame growth speed and extend stable operating limits. With the aim of expanding the knowledge on high efficiency lean-burn SI engines, this paper investigates and compares the combustion development generated by spark and corona ignitions through computational fluid dynamics, within the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes framework for turbulence modeling. In order to simultaneously take thermal and chemical effects into account, the Perfectly Stirred Reactor combustion model is used. Experimental data are also collected for validation in an optical access engine, for different mixture levels, from stoichiometric to very lean. Furthermore, the faster burn rate generated by the corona system in the initial stage of the combustion is well predicted by the simulations, in all the relative air-fuel ratio conditions. Remarkably, as the mixture becomes lean, simulations are able to capture the non-linear transition from fast to slow kernel growth, before a self-sustainable flame propagation is established. This correlates very well with the measured engine cyclic variability and the corresponding steep change in the duration of the flame kernel formation. Ultimately, this study highlights the important role of the atomic oxygen, as active radical, in promoting and enhancing the combustion initiated by a corona discharge, in addition to the volumetric ignition effect. By contrast, the validated simulations allow to explain that the high-temperature thermal plasma generated in a traditional spark discharge is insensitive to kinetic aspects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A conservative approach to scaling magneto-inertial fusion concepts to larger pulsed-power drivers

The Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experimental platform [M. R. Gomez et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 155003 (2014)] represents the most successful demonstration of magneto-inertial fusion (MIF) techniques to date in pursuit of ignition and significant fusion yields. The pressing question remains regarding how to scale MIF concepts like MagLIF to more powerful pulsed-power drivers while avoiding significant changes in physical regimes that could adversely impact performance. In this work, we propose a conservative approach for scaling general MIF implosions, including MagLIF. Underpinning our scaling approach is a theoretical framework describing the evolution of the trajectory and thickness of a thin-walled, cylindrical, current-driven shell imploding on preheated, adiabatic fuel. By imposing that scaled implosions remain self-similar, we obtain a set of scaling rules expressing key target design parameters and performance metrics as functions of the maximum driver current I max . We identify several scaling paths offering unique, complementary benefits and trade-offs in terms of physics risks and driver requirements. Remarkably, when scaling present-day experiments to higher coupled energies, these paths are predicted to preserve or reduce the majority of known performance-degrading effects, including hydrodynamic instabilities, impurity mix, fuel energy losses, and laser-plasma interactions, with notable exceptions clearly delineated. In the absence of α heating, our scaling paths exhibit neutron yield per-unit-length scaling as $\tilde{Y}$∝[I$3\atop{max}$,I${4.14}\atop{max}$] and ignition parameter scaling as χ∝[I max ,I${2.14}\atop{max}$]. By considering the specific physics risks unique to each scaling path, we provide a roadmap for future investigations to evaluate different scaling options through detailed numerical studies and scaling-focused experiments on present-day facilities. Overall, these results highlight the potential of MIF as a key component of the national ignition effort.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multivariate Methods for Prediction of Geologic Sample Composition with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) uses pulses of laser light to ablate a material from the surface of a sample and produce an expanding plasma. The optical emission from the plasma produces a spectrum which can be used to classify target materials and estimate their composition. The ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will use LIBS to rapidly analyze targets remotely, allowing more resource- and time-intensive in-situ analyses to be reserved for targets of particular interest. ChemCam will also be used to analyze samples that are not reachable by the rover's in-situ instruments. Due to these tactical and scientific roles, it is important that ChemCam-derived sample compositions are as accurate as possible. We have compared the results of partial least squares (PLS), multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs), and cascade correlation (CC) ANNs to determine which technique yields better estimates of quantitative element abundances in rock and mineral samples. The number of hidden nodes in the MLP ANNs was optimized using a genetic algorithm. The influence of two data preprocessing techniques were also investigated: genetic algorithm feature selection and averaging the spectra for each training sample prior to training the PLS and ANN algorithms. We used a ChemCam-like laboratory stand-off LIBS system to collect spectra of 30 pressed powder geostandards and a diverse suite of 196 geologic slab samples of known bulk composition. We tested the performance of PLS and ANNs on a subset of these samples, choosing to focus on silicate rocks and minerals with a loss on ignition of less than 2 percent. This resulted in a set of 22 pressed powder geostandards and 80 geologic samples. Four of the geostandards were used as a validation set and 18 were used as the training set for the algorithms. We found that PLS typically resulted in the lowest average absolute error in its predictions, but that the optimized MLP ANN and the CC ANN often gave results comparable to PLS. Averaging the spectra for each training sample and/or using feature selection to choose a small subset of wavelengths to use for predictions gave mixed results, with degraded performance in some cases and similar or slightly improved performance in other cases. However, training time was significantly reduced for both PLS and ANN methods by implementing feature selection, making this a potentially appealing method for initial, rapid-turn-around analyses necessary for Chemcam's tactical role on MSL. Choice of training samples has a strong influence on the accuracy of predictions. We are currently investigating the use of clustering algorithms (e.g. k-means, neural gas, etc.) to identify training sets that are spectrally similar to the unknown samples that are being predicted, and therefore result in improved predictions

Morris, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fluid Management of and Flame Spread Across Liquid Pools

The goal of our research on flame spread across pools of liquid fuel remains the quantitative identification of the mechanisms that control the rate and nature of flame spread when the initial temperature of the liquid pool is below the fuel's flash point temperature. As described in, four microgravity (mu-g) sounding rocket flights examined the effect of forced opposed airflow over a 2.5 cm deep x 2 cm wide x 30 cm long pool of 1-butanol. Among many unexpected findings, it was observed that the flame spread is much slower and steadier than in 1g where flame spread has a pulsating character. Our numerical model, restricted to two dimensions, had predicted faster, pulsating flame spread in mu-g. In a test designed to achieve a more 2-D experiment, our investigation of a shallow, wide pool (2 mm deep x 78 mm wide x 30 cm long) was unsuccessful in mu-g, due to an unexpectedly long time required to fill the tray. As such, the most recent Spread Across Liquids (SAL) sounding rocket experiment had two principal objectives: 1) determine if pulsating flame spread in deep fuel trays would occur under the conditions that a state-of-the-art computational combustion code and short-duration drop tower tests predict; and 2) determine if a long, rectangular, shallow fuel tray could achieve a visibly flat liquid surface across the whole tray without spillage in the mu-g time allotted. If the second objective was met, the shallow tray was to be ignited to determine the nature of flame spread in mu-g for this geometry. For the first time in the experiment series, two fuel trays - one deep (30 cm long x 2 cm wide x 25 mm deep) and one shallow (same length and width, but 2 mm deep)-- were flown. By doing two independent experiments in a single flight, a significant cost savings was realized. In parallel, the computational objective was to modify the code to improve agreement with earlier results. This last objective was achieved by modifying the fuel mass diffusivity and adding a parameter to correct for radiative and lateral heat loss.

Ross, H. D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observation of Hydrodynamic Flows in Imploding Fusion Plasmas on the National Ignition Facility [plus supplemental information]

Inertial confinement fusion implosions designed to have minimal fluid motion at peak compression often show significant linear flows in the laboratory, attributable per simulations to percent-level imbalances in the laser drive illumination symmetry. In this work, we present experimental results which intentionally varied the mode 1 drive imbalance by up to 4% to test hydrodynamic predictions of flows and the resultant imploded core asymmetries and performance, as measured by a combination of DT neutron spectroscopy and high-resolution x-ray core imaging. Neutron yields decrease by up to 50%, and anisotropic neutron Doppler broadening increases by 20%, in agreement with simulations. Furthermore, a tracer jet from the capsule fill-tube perturbation that is entrained by the hot-spot flow confirms the average flow speeds deduced from neutron spectroscopy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Functional Predictor Variables for the Leaching Potential of Arsenic and Selenium from Coal Fly Ash

The release of leachates from intact coal ash impoundments is a concern due to the enrichment and mobilization of toxic elements such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se). This study aims to explore the intrinsic properties of coal fly ash that correlate with the relative leachability of As and Se. We performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic regions. We assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition, and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, and Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1990

Flight motor set 360L007 (STS-33R)

Flight motor set 360L007 was launched as part of NASA space shuttle mission STS-33R. As with all previous redesigned solid rocket motor launches, overall motor performance was excellent. There were no debris concerns for either motor. Both motors exhibited unbonds on one factory joint weatherseal. All ballistics contract end item specification parameters were verified, with the exception of ignition interval and rise rates. Ignition interval and rise rates could not be verified due to the elimination of developmental flight instrumentation from fourth flight and subsequent, but the low sample rate data that were available showed nominal propulsion performance. All ballistic and mass property parameters closely matched the predicted values and were well within the required contract end item specification levels that could be assessed. All 108 Ground Environment Instrumentation (GEI) measurements performed properly throughout the prelaunch phase. Evaluation of the GEI measurements again verified thermal model analysis data and showed agreement with predicted environmental effects. No launch commit criteria thermal violations occurred. All joint heaters operated normally, but a high voltage reading was noted on the left hand aft heater, which was immediately determined to be a voltage sensor error and not a heater anomaly due to no current increase. Postflight inspection again verified superior performance of the insulation, phenolics, metal parts, and seals. Postflight evaluation indicated both nozzles performed as expected during flight. All combustion gas was contained by insulation in the field and case-to-nozzle joints.

Garecht, Diane↗
NASA NTRS1990

Flight motor set 360L006 (STS-34). Volume 1: System overview

Flight motor set 360L006 was launched at approximately 11:54 a.m. Central Daylight Time (CDT) on 18 October 1989 as part of NASA space shuttle mission STS-34. As with all previous redesigned solid rocket motor launches, overall motor performance was excellent. All ballistic contract end item (CEI) specification parameters were verified with the exceptions of ignition interval and rise rates. Ignition interval and rise rates could not be verified due to the elimination of developmental flight instrumentation from fourth flight and subsequent, but the low sample rate data that were available showed nominal propulsion performance. All ballistic and mass property parameters closely matched the predicted values and were well within the required CEI specification levels that could be assessed, with the exception of the RH-motor vacuum-delivered specific impulse. It exceeds the upper-limit CEI specification due to a bias imposed on the raw data by the OPT/Taber gage measurement differences. Evaluation of the ground environment instrumentation measurements again verified thermal model analysis data and showed agreement with predicted environmental effects. No launch commit criteria thermal violations occurred. Postflight inspection again verified superior performance of the insulation, phenolics, metal parts, and seals. Postflight evaluation indicated both nozzles performed as expected during flight, although splashdown loads tore the left-hand, 45-deg actuator bracket from the nozzle. All combustion gas was contained by insulation in the field and nozzle-to-case joints. Recommendations were made concerning improved thermal modeling and measurements. The rationale for these recommendations, the disposition of all anomalies, and complete result details are contained.

Garecht, Diane M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS1985

Heat-Exchanger Computational Procedure For Temperature-Dependent Fouling

Computer program predicts heat-exchanger performance under variety of conditions. Program provides rapid means of calculating distribution of fluid and wall temperatures, fuel deposit formation, and pressure losses at various locations in heat exchanger. Developed for use with heat exchanger that vaporizes fuel prior to fuel ignition; other applications possible.

Chiappetta, L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iron and Phosphorus Geochemistry in High-Centered and Low-Centered Polygon Soils from the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Utqiagvik, Alaska, 2015

This dataset provides chemical characterization of soil cores obtained in triplicate from center and trough positions of a high-centered polygon and center, ridge, and trough positions of a low-centered polygon in the NGEE Arctic research area within the Barrow Environmental Observatory, Utqiagvik, Alaska. Photographs of the 15 collected cores are provided. Cores were collected to thaw depth in early October 2015 and subsequently divided into subsamples for analysis, which included bulk soil horizons (organic or mineral) and finer scale depth increments (minimum 4 cm thickness per increment). Bulk horizons and depth increments were characterized using sequential chemical extractions for Fe and P and with Fe K-edge x-ray absorption spectroscopy. Additional soil parameters such as loss-on-ignition, gravimetric water content, and carbon and nitrogen concentrations were also quantified for bulk horizons. This dataset includes four csv files, one pdf user guide, and one zip folder of *.jpg photos.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Real-World Preignition Data Using Neural Networks

Increasing adoption of downsized, boosted, spark-ignition engines has improved vehicle fuel economy, and continued improvement is desirable to reduce carbon emissions in the near-term. However, this strategy is limited by damaging preignition events which can cause hardware failure. Research to date has shed light on various contributing factors related to fuel and lubricant properties as well as calibration strategies, but the causal factors behind an individual preignition cycle remain elusive. If actionable precursors could be identified, mitigation through active control strategies would be possible. This paper uses artificial neural networks to search for identifiable precursors in the cylinder pressure data from a large real-world data set containing many preignition cycles. It is found that while follow-up preignition cycles in clusters can be readily predicted, the initial preignition cycle is not predictable based on features of the cylinder pressure. Further, this indicates that the alternating pattern of preignition cycles within clusters is influenced by the thermodynamic state as reflected in the pressure, but that the trigger for the initial preignition cycle is not thermodynamic in nature, but more likely tied to a critical threshold in the chemistry of the fuel/lubricant mixture in the upper crevice or other factors related to the presence of an ignition source.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

VIPIR: A High-Throughput Drop-Weight Impact Instrument for Imaging the Initiation and Propagation of Reactions in Energetic Materials

Characterizing the handling safety and sensitivity of explosives has been a challenging area of study for over 60 years. Historically one of the most accessible and widely utilized experiments has been the drop-weight impact test, which involves dropping a weight on a small sample sandwiched between two anvils. Because this experiment generally only utilizes sound thresholds to determine whether or not a sample reacted, the physical and chemical properties governing sensitivity remain convolved. Better understanding of chemical and material characteristics is needed to give the chemistry and engineering communities a predictive tool to determine the handling sensitivity of explosives prior to pursuing expensive and potentially hazardous synthesis and formulation operations. Here, we are developing a high throughput drop tower instrument capable of imaging the deformation and flow of energetic materials during impact and the resulting thermal ignition and propagation events. This instrument is based on previous designs but has been modified for higher throughput and tailorable modifications in the future. Herein, we present key design features that enable high-speed visible and thermal imaging of explosive initiation by sub-shock impacts, as well as preliminary results in which ignition sites were observed in an erythritol tetranitrate sample.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

An experimental and chemical kinetic modeling study of 4-butoxyheptane combustion

Here, the combustion kinetics of a novel oxygenated bioblendstock for diesel, 4-butoxyheptane (4-BH), was investigated experimentally using a flow reactor and a heated, high-pressure shock tube. The flow reactor experiments employed oxygen as the oxidizer and helium as the diluent with oxidation conducted at atmospheric pressure and 10 bar for temperatures from 400 to 1000 K at 20-K intervals. The fuel, oxidizer, and diluent flow rates were varied at different temperatures to maintain a constant initial fuel mole fraction of 1000 ppm, with stoichiometric equivalence ratio, and a residence time of 2.0 s. The reacted gas was fed to two separate GC systems that could qualitatively and quantitatively detect product species. Additionally, real fuel-air ignition delay time (IDT) data were collected using a heated, high-pressure shock-tube facility. Fuel lean (φ = 0.5) and stoichiometric (φ = 1.0) mixtures were investigated at 10 atm as well as at 30 atm for the fuel lean case for temperatures between 847 and 1259 K. A detailed chemical kinetics mechanism was developed to model the product distribution from the flow reactor and IDTs from the shock tube. The proposed model was able to predict the double NTC behavior in flow reactor experiments reasonably well. Model predictions at low temperatures were observed to be highly sensitive to the rate constants of ketohydroperoxide (KHP) decomposition in the case of the OOH group in α position which were modeled based on existing literature studies on ethers. It was noted that in the absence of theoretical or experimental studies, the rate constants for KHP decomposition used in the literature were empirically set. Additional studies are required to address the gap in model prediction obtained in this study and to reduce the uncertainty in kinetics models for ether oxidation. Predicted product concentrations and IDTs showed some quantitative agreement with experimental data, but the overall reactivity of the IDTs is underpredicted. Additionally, significant deviation is observed for the IDT results at 10 atm for the stoichiometric case with minor deviations for the other cases. The reaction pathways to the missing products were then further analyzed theoretically through quantum-mechanical calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Machine Learning Can and Cannot Do for Inertial Confinement Fusion

Machine learning methodologies have played remarkable roles in solving complex systems with large data, well-defined input–output pairs, and clearly definable goals and metrics. The methodologies are effective in image analysis, classification, and systems without long chains of logic. Recently, machine-learning methodologies have been widely applied to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsules and the design optimization of OMEGA (Omega Laser Facility) capsule implosion and NIF (National Ignition Facility) ignition capsules, leading to significant progress. As machine learning is being increasingly applied, concerns arise regarding its capabilities and limitations in the context of ICF. ICF is a complicated physical system that relies on physics knowledge and human judgment to guide machine learning. Additionally, the experimental database for ICF ignition is not large enough to provide credible training data. Most researchers in the field of ICF use simulations, or a mix of simulations and experimental results, instead of real data to train machine learning models and related tools. They then use the trained learning model to predict future events. This methodology can be successful, subject to a careful choice of data and simulations. However, because of the extreme sensitivity of the neutron yield to the input implosion parameters, physics-guided machine learning for ICF is extremely important and necessary, especially when the database is small, the uncertain-domain knowledge is large, and the physical capabilities of the learning models are still being developed. In this work, we identify problems in ICF that are suitable for machine learning and circumstances where machine learning is less likely to be successful. This study investigates the applications of machine learning and highlights fundamental research challenges and directions associated with machine learning in ICF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗