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DOE OSTI2023

Data Mining and Machine Learning for Power System Monitoring, Understanding, and Impact Evaluation

This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid

data mining, power grid, machine learning, anomaly↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impedance Methods for Analyzing Stability Impacts of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability Analysis Tools for Modern Power Systems

Power systems around the world are undergoing a major transformation because of the increasing shares of renewable energy, growing deployment of energy storage systems, proliferation of distributed energy resources, electrification of other sectors, and so on. In the United States, wind and solar provided almost 10% of electricity in 2019. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, forecasted that the share of electricity from renewables will reach 38% by 2050, of which more than 80% will come from wind and solar. Wind and solar, along with battery energy storage systems, interface with the grid using power electronic inverters; hence, they are collectively referred to as inverter-based resources (IBRs). The increasing annual share of electricity from IBRs in a power system means that during more times of the year, the system will operate at a much higher concentration of IBRs. Figure 1 presents the hourly share of wind and solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system in Texas in 2019. While the annual wind share was at 20%, the instantaneous percentage share was much higher. Moments of high shares of IBRs (>50%) will continue to grow as more IBRs will be deployed in a power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders [Slides]

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and ratemaking processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Regions Favorable for Geothermal Heating and Cooling Storage

Space heating and cooling represents the single largest category of in building energy use for U.S. residential and commercial buildings, with heating representing 61% of residential and 46% commercial energy consumption. Building heating technologies are dominated by natural gas technologies, and are an important opportunity for building electrification to enable a transition to a low CO 2 energy system. FLXenabler study is a joint analysis effort among multiple analysis teams at NREL and focused on examining the role of geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) system with thermal energy storage (TES) providing flexibility. Utilizing information from ResStock the amount of energy consumption associated with heating and cooling by state was calculated. We applied adjusted load shapes to estimate the a maximum grid savings potential of using TES to address building space conditioning. Normalizing grid, fuel, and emissions impacts locations with higher favorability for further study in FLXenabler were identified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1999

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretch Grid GCM: The 1998 Summer Drought

The variable resolution stretched grid(SG) GCM based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM, has been developed and tested in a regional climate simulation mode. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the U.S. Midwest. Within the stretched grid, the region of interest with a uniform about 60 km resolution is a rectangle over the U.S. Outside the region, the grid intervals increase or stretch with a constant stretching factor (as a geometric progression). The results of two-month simulation for the anomalous climate event of the U.S. drought of 1988, are validated against data analysis fields and diagnostics. The event has been chosen by the Project to Inter-compare Regional Climate Simulations(PIRCS). The efficient regional down-scaling as well as the positive impact of fine regional resolution, are obtained. More specifically, the precipitation, 500 hPa, and low-level jet patterns and characteristics are well represented in the simulation. The SG-concept appeared to be a promising candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Efficient Multiblock Method for Aerodynamic Analysis and Design on Distributed Memory Systems

The work presented in this paper describes the application of a multiblock gridding strategy to the solution of aerodynamic design optimization problems involving complex configurations. The design process is parallelized using the MPI (Message Passing Interface) Standard such that it can be efficiently run on a variety of distributed memory systems ranging from traditional parallel computers to networks of workstations. Substantial improvements to the parallel performance of the baseline method are presented, with particular attention to their impact on the scalability of the program as a function of the mesh size. Drag minimization calculations at a fixed coefficient of lift are presented for a business jet configuration that includes the wing, body, pylon, aft-mounted nacelle, and vertical and horizontal tails. An aerodynamic design optimization is performed with both the Euler and Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations governing the flow solution and the results are compared. These sample calculations establish the feasibility of efficient aerodynamic optimization of complete aircraft configurations using the RANS equations as the flow model. There still exists, however, the need for detailed studies of the importance of a true viscous adjoint method which holds the promise of tackling the minimization of not only the wave and induced components of drag, but also the viscous drag.

Reuther, James↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Transition from Complex Crater to Peak-Ring Basin on the Moon: New Observations from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Instrument

Impact craters on planetary bodies transition with increasing size from simple, to complex, to peak-ring basins and finally to multi-ring basins. Important to understanding the relationship between complex craters with central peaks and multi-ring basins is the analysis of protobasins (exhibiting a rim crest and interior ring plus a central peak) and peak-ring basins (exhibiting a rim crest and an interior ring). New data have permitted improved portrayal and classification of these transitional features on the Moon. We used new 128 pixel/degree gridded topographic data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, combined with image mosaics, to conduct a survey of craters >50 km in diameter on the Moon and to update the existing catalogs of lunar peak-ring basins and protobasins. Our updated catalog includes 17 peak-ring basins (rim-crest diameters range from 207 km to 582 km, geometric mean = 343 km) and 3 protobasins (137-170 km, geometric mean = 157 km). Several basins inferred to be multi-ring basins in prior studies (Apollo, Moscoviense, Grimaldi, Freundlich-Sharonov, Coulomb-Sarton, and Korolev) are now classified as peak-ring basins due to their similarities with lunar peak-ring basin morphologies and absence of definitive topographic ring structures greater than two in number. We also include in our catalog 23 craters exhibiting small ring-like clusters of peaks (50-205 km, geometric mean = 81 km); one (Humboldt) exhibits a rim-crest diameter and an interior morphology that may be uniquely transitional to the process of forming peak rings. Comparisons of the predictions of models for the formation of peak-ring basins with the characteristics of the new basin catalog for the Moon suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. In particular, a power-law model of growth of an interior melt cavity with increasing crater diameter is consistent with power-law fits to the peak-ring basin data for the Moon and Mercury. We suggest that the relationship between the depth of melting and depth of the transient cavity offers a plausible control on the onset diameter and subsequent development of peak-ring basins and also multi-ring basins, which is consistent with both planetary gravitational acceleration and mean impact velocity being important in determining the onset of basin morphological forms on the terrestrial planets.

Baker, David M. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The importance of non-quasigeostrophic forcing during the development of a blocking anticyclone

This study examines the impact of non-quasigeostrophic (NQG) processes during the development of a blocking anticyclone (January 21, 1979 over the southern tip of Greenland) and a precursor, upstream intense cyclone (January 18, 1979). Energy quantities and height tendencies determined from quasigeostrophic estimates are compared with the same quantities obtained from more general formulations. GLA FGGE Level III-b analysis on a 4 deg lat by 5 deg long grid was used to obtain energetics results. It is concluded that NQG processes strengthened the intensity of the block and a precursor explosive cyclone and that a portion of this increase resulted from enhanced baroclinic conversion of eddy potential to eddy kinetic energy and reduced barotropic energy conversion from eddy to zonal flow. It is suggested that NQG vorticity advection, instead of moderating wave developments, enhanced the block development, and it is also suggested that QG forcing might not have been adequate to produce the observed block development.

Tsou, Chih-Hua↗

NASA NTRS1990

Influence of structural and aerodynamic modeling on optimization with flutter constraint

The influences of structural and aerodynamic modeling on multidisciplinary optimization in an aeroelastic environment are not well understood. Therefore, optimizations with flutter and frequency constraints were performed to investigate the effects these modeling factors have on various representative wings. To this end, the Automated Structural Optimization System (ASTROS) was used as a tool to minimize the weight of various fully built-up finite element wing models in subsonic and supersonic flow under given flutter and frequency constraints. First, the performance of the optimization module was tested against results from other codes on a straight and uniform wing widely used for optimization with flutter constraints. Then, fully built-up finite element models of various wings with different aspect ratios were investigated for the influence on the structural optimization for minimum weight of the following modeling factors: finite element selection, structural grid refinement; number of selected modes, retention of breathing modes; selection of reduced frequencies to be used in flutter analysis; aerodynamic panel size and placement; splining of the aerodynamic grid to the structural grid selection of extra points of the structural wing box for splining; and number of constraints to be retained. Knowledge of these influences as well as of the program behavior is important, since optimization can be made more efficient by the selection of reasonable initial models. Also, it was shown previously that modeling has an impact on the results of modal and aeroelastic analyses. Thus, if modeling errors can negatively affect the analyses, a minimum weight optimization can be jeopardized and result in an optimal design that is rather unreliable. In the following, selected results are presented and the influences of some modeling parameters on optimization are pointed out.

Striz, Alfred G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Heat Transfer Prediction for High-Speed Flows over Blunt Bodies using Adaptive Mixed-Element Unstructured Grids

Aerothermodynamic prediction is important for the design and analysis of many aerospace vehicles. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools used for these predictions commonly rely on structured shock-aligned grids due to the strong shocks exhibited at high speeds. This work details the incorporation of an improved HLLE++ scheme for both perfect gas and thermochemical nonequilibrium flows which robustly captures shock waves on both non-shock-aligned and shock-aligned grids. The HLLE++ scheme reduces the impact of eigenvalue limiting on flow solutions which is required for Roe's scheme for high Mach number flows. An adapted grid approach is also demonstrated using mixed-element unstructured grids to improve heat prediction. Thin prismatic boundary layers are used with tetrahedra in the farfield and for capturing shock waves. Various results are presented for hypersonic flows over blunt bodies including cylinders, spheres, and capsules.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Heat Transfer Prediction for High-Speed Flows over Blunt Bodies using Adaptive Mixed-Element Unstructured Grids

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fiducial-cosmology-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

When measuring the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) scale from galaxy surveys, one typically assumes a fiducial cosmology when converting redshift measurements into comoving distances and also when defining input parameters for the reconstruction algorithm. A parameterised template for the model to be fitted is also created based on a (possibly different) fiducial cosmology. This model reliance can be considered a form of data compression, and the data is then analysed allowing that the true answer is different from the fiducial cosmology assumed. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the fiducial cosmology assumed in the BAO analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey Data Release 1 (DR1) on the final measurements in DESI 2024 III. We utilise a suite of mock galaxy catalogues with survey realism that mirrors the DESI DR1 tracers: the bright galaxy sample (BGS), the luminous red galaxies (LRG), the emission line galaxies (ELG) and the quasars (QSO), spanning a redshift range from 0.1 to 2.1. We compare the four secondary AbacusSummit cosmologies against DESI's fiducial cosmology (Planck 2018). The secondary cosmologies explored include a lower cold dark matter density, a thawing dark energy universe, a higher number of effective species, and a lower amplitude of matter clustering. The mocks are processed through the BAO pipeline by consistently iterating the grid, template, and reconstruction reference cosmologies. We determine a conservative systematic contribution to the error of 0.1% for both the isotropic and anisotropic dilation parameters αiso and αAP. We then directly test the impact of the fiducial cosmology on DESI DR1 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Multi-satellite Evaluation for the Global Precipitation Measurement: Impact of Precipitation Types on Spaceborne Precipitation Estimation

An integrated multi-sensor assessment is proposed as a novel approach to advance satellite precipitation validation in order to provide users and algorithm developers with an assessment adequately coping with the varying performances of merged satellite precipitation estimates. Gridded precipitation rates retrieved from space sensors with quasi-global coverage feed numerous applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards caused by extreme events. Characterizing the error structure of satellite precipitation products is recognized as a major issue for the usefulness of these estimates. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission aims at unifying precipitation measurements from a constellation of low-earth orbiting (LEO) sensors with various capabilities to detect, classify and quantify precipitation. They are used in combination with geostationary observations to provide gridded precipitation accumulations. The GPM Core Observatory satellite serves as a calibration reference for consistent precipitation retrieval algorithms across the constellation. The propagation of QPE uncertainty from LEO active/passive microwave (PMW) precipitation estimates to gridded QPE is addressed in this study, by focusing on the impact of precipitation typology on QPE from the Level-2 GPM Core Observatory Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to the Microwave Imager (GMI) to Level-3 IMERG precipitation over the Conterminous U.S. A high-resolution surface precipitation used as a consistent reference across scales is derived from the ground radar-based Multi-Radar/MultiSensor. While the error structure of the DPR, GMI and subsequent IMERG is complex because of the interaction of various error factors, systematic biases related to precipitation typology are consistently quantified across products. These biases display similar features across Level-2 and Level-3, highlighting the need to better resolve precipitation typology from space and the room for improvement in globalscale precipitation estimates. The integrated analysis and framework proposed herein applies more generally to precipitation estimates from sensors and error sources affecting low-earth orbiting satellites and derived gridded products.

Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstette↗

NASA NTRS2014

Numerical Analysis of a Rotating Detonation Engine in the Relative Reference Frame

A two-dimensional, computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation of a semi-idealized rotating detonation engine (RDE) is described. The simulation operates in the detonation frame of reference and utilizes a relatively coarse grid such that only the essential primary flow field structure is captured. This construction yields rapidly converging, steady solutions. Results from the simulation are compared to those from a more complex and refined code, and found to be in reasonable agreement. The performance impacts of several RDE design parameters are then examined. Finally, for a particular RDE configuration, it is found that direct performance comparison can be made with a straight-tube pulse detonation engine (PDE). Results show that they are essentially equivalent.

pulse detonation engines↗

NASA NTRS2014

Numerical Analysis of a Rotating Detonation Engine in the Relative Reference Frame

propulsion↗