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At least 433 records · Page 24

Pliocene and Eocene Provide Best Analogs for Near-Future Climates

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

climate change↗

Exact Cavity Perturbation Technique to Determine Complex Permittivity of Dielectric Materials

Cassini is an international spacecraft mission facilitated by NASA and ESA which seeks to understand the Saturn planetary system, including rings and moons. Launched in 1997, the Cassini spacecraft contains two major components: the Cassini orbiter that has been orbiting Saturn since October 2004, and the European-built Huygens probe that landed on Titan's surface in December 2004 to study its geology and atmosphere. Titan, Saturn's largest moon and the second largest moon in the solar system, possesses surface and atmospheric features similar to those of Earth, including lakes, seas, and mountains. A physical characterization of these features is critical to understanding the origin and evolution of Titan, whose surface composition reflects its geological history. Because Titan's atmosphere is largely composed of methane, it is believed that surfaces lakes are filled with mixtures of liquid hydrocarbons. The Cassini orbiter's RADAR instrument has been scanning Titan's surface at the atmosphere-penetrating microwave frequency of 13.8 Gigahertz since 2004. However, accurate interpretation of these data is limited by a lack of knowledge regarding dielectric properties of liquid hydrocarbons at cryogenic temperatures. Therefore, it is of specific interest to experimentally determine values for the complex permittivities of various liquid hydrocarbon mixtures at the surface conditions of Titan. In particular, more accurate values for complex permittivity would improve estimates of lake depth and surface composition obtained from the instrument's altimetry and backscatter modes.

dielectric constant↗

Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s

Abstract Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade‐study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s

Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade-study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

Observing System↗

Method of Distributions for Two‐Phase Flow in Heterogeneous Porous Media

Abstract Multiscale heterogeneity and insufficient characterization data for a specific subsurface formation of interest render predictions of multi‐phase fluid flow in geologic formations highly uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty propagation from the geomodel to the fluid‐flow response is typically done within a probabilistic framework. This task is computationally demanding due to, for example, the slow convergence of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), especially when computing the tails of a distribution that are necessary for risk assessment and decision‐making under uncertainty. The frozen streamlines method (FROST) accelerates probabilistic predictions of immiscible two‐phase fluid flow problems; however, FROST relies on MCS to compute the travel‐time distribution, which is then used to perform the transport (phase saturation) computations. To alleviate this computational bottleneck, we replace MCS with a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of travel time. The resulting CDF‐FROST approach yields the CDF of the saturation field without resorting to sampling‐based strategies. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the high accuracy of CDF‐FROST in computing the CDFs of both saturation and travel time. For the same accuracy, it is about 5 and 10 times faster than FROST and MCS, respectively.

Yang, Hyung Jun↗

Validation of Fitness for Duty Standards Using Pre- and Post-Flight Capsule Egress and Suited Functional Performance Tasks in Simulated Reduced Gravity

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. The Pilot Egress Fitness study has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. All subjects were able to complete the post-flight simulated planetary EVA; three subjects were able to complete the postflight capsule egress simulation. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

egress↗

CIPHER: Egress Fitness

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of exploration missions. The reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Specifically, two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: 1) nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth, and 2) planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon. Quantification of crewmember’s functional performance after long-duration spaceflight is necessary to inform concepts of operations for future exploration missions. The overarching aim of this study is to quantify post-landing functional performance with deconditioning after long-duration ISS missions. This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1 includes a pilot study to assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to perform mission-like tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2, the Egress Fitness study, which is part of the Complement of Integrated Protocols for Human Exploration Research (CIPHER), uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. The pilot and full Egress Fitness study includes pre-flight and post-flight testing of simulated emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a Mars gravity EVA simulation at the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) facility. The EVA simulation tasks include suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. The post-flight simulated capsule egress test occurs 1–4 h after landing and the planetary EVA simulation occurs 18–36 h after landing. The full CIPHER Egress Fitness study has additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. Pilot Egress Fitness has completed baseline and post-flight testing on four crewmembers. That study remains open. Originally this was to cover the Boeing CFT mission, but now also includes private astronauts on commercial spaceflights. CIPHER study data collection is ongoing with 2 subjects completed and 4 additional subjects consented. This study will quantify post-landing functional performance in operationally relevant simulations to help inform fitness for duty standards and future planetary concepts of operations shortly after landing.

Jason Norcross↗

Validation of Fitness for Duty Standards Using Pre- and Post-Flight Capsule Egress and Suited Functional Performance Tasks in Simulated Reduced Gravity

The transition between gravity environments will involve one of the most complex, high-risk phases of any mission. For example, the reduced functional capacity caused by physiological deconditioning adaptations in microgravity coupled with the stressors of re-entry into partial gravity environments will increase risks to crew, even with rigorous adherence to inflight countermeasures. Quantification of the astronauts’ post-landing functional performance is necessary to design ConOps for exploration missions. Specifically, these two high-risk scenarios may be required to be performed soon after gravity transitions: • Nominal and/or emergency unassisted capsule egress task after return to Earth • Planetary extravehicular activity (EVA) soon after landing on Mars or the Moon This study is broken down into two phases. Phase 1: A feasibility study that will assess the overall feasibility and demonstrate the capability to do these tasks shortly after landing. Phase 2: the full Egress Fitness study, which is part of the CIPHER complement. This study uses a task-based approach to characterize functional performance of these high-risk scenarios in long-duration ISS crewmembers before flight and shortly after return to Earth. Prior to any testing, each astronaut subject completes a suit fit check to ensure adequate sizing and a mobility assessment to confirm completion of the EVA tasks. Pilot Egress Fitness pre-flight and post-flight testing includes an Earth-based emergency egress out of a functional capsule mockup and a short Mars gravity EVA simulation including suit donning, hatch egress, ladder descent, task board cable operations, baggage transfer over sand/rocky regolith, alignment with a rear entry port, and suit egress. Pre-flight testing will occur at any time point prior to flight. Post-flight assessment is much more critical with the capsule egress test that will occur 1–4 hours after landing and the planetary EVA approximately 18–36 hours after landing. The CIPHER study will incorporate additional pre-flight sessions, longer EVA tasks that include traverse and geology sampling, and post-flight sessions on R+1, 4, and 8 to characterize the timeframe of recovery. Data collected for both tasks include task completion time, photo, and video. The EVA portion also includes collection of metabolic and heart rate. Pilot Egress Fitness study has completed both baseline and post-flight testing on four astronaut subjects, with all four able to complete post-flight EVA testing and three able to complete postflight capsule egress testing. Preliminary results observe individual physiological variations, which were to be expected but also suggest the need to carefully track the timeline from undock to landing to testing. Furthermore, some task performance instructions and equipment may need to be adjusted to ensure results are primarily physiological. These and other lessons learned will be addressed with minor protocol changes in the full CIPHER Egress Fitness study.

J R Norcross↗

Mechanisms of Waterflood Inefficiency: Analysis of Geological, Petrophysical and Reservoir History, a Field Case Study of FWU (East Section)

The petroleum reservoir represents a complex heterogeneous system that requires thorough characterization prior to the implementation of any incremental recovery technique. One of the most commonly utilized and successful secondary recovery techniques is waterflooding. However, a lack of sufficient investigation into the inherent behavior and characteristics of the reservoir formation in situ can result in failure or suboptimal performance of waterflood operations. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the geological history, static and dynamic reservoir characteristics, and petrophysical data is essential for analyzing the mechanisms and causes of waterflood inefficiency and failure. In this study, waterflood inefficiency was observed in the Morrow B reservoir located in the Farnsworth Unit, situated in the northwestern shelf of the Anadarko Basin, Texas. To assess the potential mechanisms behind the inefficiency of waterflooding in the east half, geological, petrophysical, and reservoir engineering data, along with historical information, were integrated, reviewed, and analyzed. The integration and analysis of these datasets revealed that several factors contributed to the waterflood inefficiency. Firstly, the presence of abundant dispersed authigenic clays within the reservoir, worsened by low reservoir quality and high heterogeneity, led to unfavorable conditions for waterflood operations. The use of freshwater for flooding exacerbated the adverse effects of sensitive and migratory clays, further hampering the effectiveness of the waterflood. In addition to these factors, several reservoir engineering issues played a significant role in the inefficiency of waterflooding. These issues included inadequate perforation strategies due to the absence of detailed hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and rock typing, random placement of injectors, and uncontrolled injected fresh water. These external controlling parameters further contributed to the overall inefficiencies observed during waterflood operations in the east half of the reservoir. A detailed understanding of the mechanistic factors of inefficient waterflood operation will provide adequate insights into the development of the improved recovery technique for the field.

Morgan, Anthony (ORCID:0000000211519153)↗

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗

Comparative Assessment of U-Net-Based Deep Learning Models for Segmenting Microfractures and Pore Spaces in Digital Rocks

Segmentation of high-resolution X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) images is crucial in digital rock physics (DRP), affecting the characterization and analysis of microscale phenomena in the porous media. The complexity of geological structures and nonideal scanning conditions pose significant challenges to conventional image segmentation approaches. Motivated by the recent increasing popularity of deep learning (DL) techniques in image processing, this work undertakes a comparative study of DL models, specifically U-Net and its variants, for segmenting multiple targets with distinguished features in digital rocks, including discrete fracture networks (DFNs), pore spaces, and solid rock. Particularly, DFNs have a smaller volumetric fraction over others, bringing in a substantial challenge of imbalanced segmentation. The primary focus is to evaluate the architecture and feature enhancement strategies of various DL models, including U-Net, attention U-Net, residual U-Net, U-Net++, and residual U-Net++. The models were designed as 2.5D, utilizing a central 2D image and its two adjacent upper and lower 2D images as input to provide a pseudo-3D context. In addition, because the ground truth of segmentation was unknown for real-world digital rocks, we created a benchmark data set following the inverse operations of segmentation. The data synthesis started from the label images (i.e., solid rock, pore spaces, and DFNs), followed by simulating partial volume blurring, adding random background noise, and introducing ring artifacts to mimic real raw X-ray µCT images. The data set, which included various rock types (i.e., sandstone and artificial data), scanning resolution, and magnitudes of noise and artifacts, was divided into training and testing data sets with a 90% and 10% ratio, respectively. Moreover, in addition to the conventional pixel-wise evaluation metrics, the physics-based metric of the lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM) simulated permeability provided more comprehensive assessments. The results demonstrated that the residual connections, nested architectures, and redesigned skip connections contribute to the model performance and give the residual U-Net++ the highest accuracy. The improvements were mainly on the boundaries and small targets, especially the DFNs, which dominate the interconnectivity and therefore affect the permeability greatly. This study also rigorously evaluated the efficiency and generalization of each model, demonstrating that the sophisticated architectures achieved excellent practicability and maintained robust performance on completely unseen data, ensuring their suitability for diverse and challenging DRP applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Magellan: Preliminary description of Venus surface geologic units

Observations from approximately one-half of the Magellan nominal eight-month mission to map Venus are summarized. Preliminary compilation of initial geologic observations of the planet reveals a surface dominated by plains that are characterized by extensive and intensive volcanism and tectonic deformation. Four broad categories of units have been identified: plains units, linear belts, surficial units, and terrain units.

Saunders, R. S.↗

Geologic Mapping of MTM -30247, -35247 and -40247 Quadrangles, Reull Vallis Region, Mars

Geologic mapping of MTM -30247, -35247, and -40247 quadrangles is being used to characterize Reull Vallis (RV) and to determine the history of the eastern Hellas region of Mars. Studies of RV examine the roles and timing of volatile-driven erosional and depositional processes and provide constraints on potential associated climatic changes. This study complements earlier investigations of the eastern Hellas region, including regional analyses [1-6], mapping studies of circum-Hellas canyons [7-10], and volcanic studies of Hadriaca and Tyrrhena Paterae [11-13]. Key scientific objectives include 1) characterizing RV in its "fluvial zone," 2) analysis of channels in the surrounding plains and potential connections to and interactions with RV, 3) examining young, presumably sedimentary plains along RV, and 4) determining the nature of the connection between the segments of RV.

Mest, S. C.↗

Geology of -30247, -35247, and -40247 Quadrangles, Southern Hesperia Planum, Mars

Geologic mapping of MTM -30247, -35247, and -40247 quadrangles is being used to characterize Reull Vallis (RV) and examine the roles and timing of volatile-driven erosional and depositional processes. This study complements earlier investigations of the eastern Hellas region, including regional analyses [1-6], mapping studies of circum-Hellas canyons [7-10], and volcanic studies of Hadriaca and Tyrrhena Paterae [11-13]. Key scientific objectives include 1) characterizing RV in its "fluvial zone," and evaluating its history of formation, 2) analyzing channels in the surrounding plains and potential connections to RV, and 3) examining young, possibly sedimentary plains along RV.

Mest, S. C.↗

Dragonfly: Investigating the Surface Composition of Titan

Dragonfly is a rotorcraft lander mission, selected as a finalist in NASA's New Frontiers Program, that is designed to sample materials and determine the surface composition in different geologic settings on Titan. This revolutionary mission concept would explore diverse locations to characterize the habitability of Titan's environment, to investigate how far prebiotic chemistry has progressed, and to search for chemical signatures that could be indicative of water-based and/or hydrocarbon-based life. Here we describe Dragonfly's capabilities to determine the composition of a variety of surface units on Titan, from elemental components to complex organic molecules. The compositional investigation ncludes characterization of local surface environments and finely sampled materials. The Dragonfly flexible sampling approach can robustly accommodate materials from Titan's most intriguing surface environments.

Trainer, M. G.↗

Constraining the Thickness of Polar Ice Deposits on Mercury Using the Mercury Laser Altimeter and Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Radar-bright deposits at the poles of Mercury are located in permanently shadowed regions, which pro- vide thermally stable environments for hosting and retaining water ice on the surface or in the near sub- surface for geologic timescales. While the areal distribution of these radar-bright deposits is well characterized, their thickness, and thus their total mass and volume, remain poorly constrained. Here we derive thickness estimates for selected water-ice deposits using small, simple craters visible within the permanently shadowed, radar-bright deposits. We examine two endmember scenarios: in Case I, these craters predate the emplacement of the ice, and in Case II, these craters postdate the emplacement of the ice. In Case I, we find the difference between estimated depths of the original unfilled craters and the measured depths of the craters to find the estimated infill of material. The average estimated infilled material for 9 craters assumed to be overlain with water ice is ∼41 +30 −14 m, where 1 −σ standard error of the mean is reported as uncertainty. Reported uncertainties are for statistical errors only. Additional systematic uncertainty may stem from georeferencing the images and topographic datasets, from the radial accuracy of the altimeter measurements, or from assumptions in our models including (1) ice is flat in the bowl- shaped crater and (2) there is negligible ice at the crater rims. In Case II, we derive crater excavation depths to investigate the thickness of the ice layer that may have been penetrated by the impact. While the absence of excavated regolith associated with the small craters observed suggests that impacts generally do not penetrate through the ice deposit, the spatial resolution and complex illumination geometry of images may limit the observations. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether the small craters in this study penetrate through the ice deposit, and thus Case II does not provide a constraint on the ice thickness. For Mercury’s polar deposits, we argue that Case I of the small craters predating the emplacement of the ice deposits is more likely, given other geologic evidence that suggests that these ice deposits are relatively young. Using the ice thickness estimates from Case I to calculate the total amount of water ice currently contained in Mercury’s polar deposits results in a value of ∼10 14 –10 15 kg. This is equivalent to ∼100–1000 km 3 ice in volume. This volume of water ice is consistent with delivery via micrometeorite bombardment, Jupiter-family comets, or potentially a single impactor.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗