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At least 433 records · Page 24

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

Machine learning informed control systems for extrusion printing processes

Systems and methods for controlling a material extrusion device to extrude a filament of an ink are provided. An extrusion printing control system collects from one or more sensors measurements representing an internal state of material extrusion processing during extrusion of the filament. In addition, the system collects an image of the filament as the filament is extruded. The system applies a classifier to the collected image to generate an image-derived state characterizing the filament. Based on the internal state and the image-derived state, the system estimates a derived state using a model. The system determines control parameters using the model to achieve a desired quality of the filament by minimizing a cost function based on the internal state, the image-derived state, the derived state, and constraints of the material extrusion device. Finally, the system provides the control parameters to a controller of the material extrusion device.

Howell, Brian↗

Large-Scale Alfvenic Impulses on the Sun: How They Are Generated and What We Learn From Them

NASA GSFC The Sun's atmosphere hosts a wide variety of magnetosonic disturbances. These wave modes are detected, almost exclusively, by examining images of the Sun's magnetic atmosphere and looking for propagating distortions. Although none of the Sun's plasma parameters are measured directly, we derive a great deal of information from these observations. In fact, by modeling these propagating disturbances, we may be able to derive the most accurate estimates plasma parameters. From observations absorption, refraction, reflection, and coupling of numerous wave modes, we advance our knowledge of the Sun's magnetic field, temperature, density, and current. The Sun's continuous oscillation, coronal mass ejections, flares, and other dynamic phenomena can produce wave disturbances which are observable from near-Earth space. Several of these disturbances have been traced from the inner corona out into the heliosphere. From the generation of these disturbances, we are able to learn about the phenomena which create them as well as the media through which they re-propagating. The presentation will include a discussion of the generation of Alfvenic disturbances on the Sun, ways we observe these disturbances, and how recent advances in modeling and analysis have brought us closer to determining solar in situ parameters.

Thompson, Barbara↗

Estimation of parameters involved in high angle-of-attack aerodynamic theory using spin flight test data

The difficulty in applying parameter estimation techniques to spinning airplanes is due in part to the unwieldy number of possible combinations of terms in the equations of motion, when the model structure is unknown. The combination of high angle of attack and high rotation rate results in aerodynamic functions which are quite complex. For wing dominated configurations it is advantageous to use aerodynamic theory to generate the model structure. In this way, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and the model accuracy may be increased. Under conditions for which the theory is inadequate, however, model accuracy may be reduced. Strip theory, for example, is incapable of predicting autorotative rolling moments indicated by wind tunnel tests at angles of attack exceeding 40 degrees. An improved aerodynamic theory would be necessary to successfully apply the technique advanced for such regions.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗

U.S. Fusion D-Li Neutron Irradiation Facility: Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source (FPNS) Technology Study

A primary engineering challenge for the realization of fusion energy involves the development of high-performance structural and plasma-facing materials with dimensional stability and resistance to neutron degradation of mechanical properties. The harsh fusion environment, including high levels of helium production and other transmutation products along with high operating temperatures, poses an extreme challenge for materials. Identifying materials that can withstand these conditions is a high priority for fusion energy research. Critical to resolving this gap in scientific understanding is developing a neutron source facility with the ability to mimic the extreme conditions in a fusion reactor. Working with the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Virtual Laboratory for Technology (VLT) organized a workshop to discuss the need for a Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source (FPNS). [1] While there are a variety of uses for FPNS neutrons, the main driver of US interest is expanding the scientific understanding of materials degradation in the deuterium-tritium (D-T) fusion environment. FPNS will help build the scientific foundation required to enable design of a next step fusion device. Using specifications from previous projects as a guide, key parameters were agreed upon for a near term, moderate cost US facility that would be complementary to the more extensive plans of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF). Types of facilities that could potentially meet those criteria were identified. A scoping study for three technologies was initiated to answer three critical questions: 1) Can the concept meet the key parameters, 2) What is the estimated cost, and 3) What is the estimated schedule. One approach selected for the scoping study is a D-Li stripping source similar to the design of the IFMIF but at a lower beam power and atomic displacement rate for cost and schedule reasons. The purpose of this report is to document the results of the D-Li stripping source option study, providing answers to the three questions. The approach to generating a fusion prototypic neutron source using a deuteron beam incident on a flowing lithium target has been studied for more than 40 years. As a result of the research and development recently executed primarily in Europe and Japan, the ability of this approach to meet key parameters (damage parameters, irradiation volume) outlined in the US workshop for a near-term, moderate cost fusion prototypic neutron source facility is not in doubt. The main question that must be answered is the cost of such a facility. As a result, a strong focus was placed on understanding alternatives for developing the facility and their relative costs. The project was broken into four components for the cost estimate: the ion source, accelerator, lithium target system, and conventional facilities. The cost of the accelerator is an important cost driver for the D-Li stripping concept. To fully understand the range of the accelerator cost, multiple alternatives were considered including normal conducting and superconducting linacs and the frequency of the radiofrequency quadrupole. Multiple previous design studies dating from 1989 through 2017 were examined (costs were escalated to 2019 dollars) and compared. After analysis, two options were selected for costing, one superconducting and one room temperature. We found similar project costs for the two accelerator options, on the order of $100M including design and project management but excluding contingency. Including everything except the conventional facilities, the estimate for the neutron source facility is estimated to be $220M without contingency. Additional significant costs for the facility are the conventional costs arising from the need to construct buildings for the accelerator and target facilities, bringing electrical power to the site including a new substation, and removing the heat from the facility using heat exchangers. While ORNL would oversee this work, much of the effort would be executed by contractors. Estimates for this effort was based on similar projects that are currently being executed at ORNL or were executed at ORNL in the recent past. The estimate for conventional facilities for the neutron facility is $173M without contingency, bringing the total project cost to $393M without contingency. With a 50% contingency, the estimated cost is $589M. The estimate range was established using guidance from the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE). Specifically, guidance from recommended practice 17R-97 provides insight on the expected accuracy range of estimates based on the degree of project definition and the position of the project in the stage-gate process or maturity timeline. An AACE Class 5 type estimate is appropriate for concept screening. The expected accuracy range includes a low end of -50% to -20% and a high end of +30% to +100% around the estimated cost. For the D-Li stripping neutron source, a -20% to +100% cost range was applied for a recommended cost range of $471M to $1,179M. Less emphasis was placed on determining the project schedule due to the fact that the project costs were large and may eliminate this option from consideration. The development of the accelerator facility may require on the order of five years without contingency. A more realistic schedule with contingency may be seven years. However, this estimate should be scrutinized in a preconceptual design activity if a more realistic estimate is needed. Finally, one lesson learned in this process is that the requirements for a near-term, moderate cost facility drives the alternative selection toward existing facilities and infrastructure. The D-Li stripping neutron source option requires a green field site due to the lack of existing buildings and infrastructure that can be reused for this effort. As a result, the conventional facilities costs are a significant fraction of the total facility cost. Other neutron source options where buildings, electrical power, and cooling infrastructure already exist may be able to meet the requirements for a near term, moderate cost facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

A dynamic data-driven method for dealing with model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation

Attributing to the flexibility in considering various types of observation error and model error, data assimilation has been increasingly applied to dynamically improve soil moisture modeling in many hydrological practices. However, accurate characterization of model error, especially the part caused by defective model structure, presents a significant challenge to the successful implementation of data assimilation. Model structural error has received limited attention relative to parameter and input errors, mainly due to our poor understanding of structural inadequacy and the difficulties in parameterizing structural error. In this paper, we present a dynamic data-driven approach to estimate the model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation without the need for identifying error generation mechanism or specifying particular form for the error model. The error model is based on the Gaussian process regression and then integrated into the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to form a hybrid method for dealing with multi-source model errors. Two variants of the hybrid method in terms of two different error correction manners are proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested through a suit of synthetic cases and a real-world case. Results demonstrate the potential of the proposed hybrid method for estimating model structural error and providing improved model predictions. Compared to the traditional EnKF without explicitly considering the model structural error, parameter compensation issue is obviously reduced and soil moisture retrieval is substantially improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conceptual Biorefinery Design and Research Targeted for 2022: Hydrothermal Liquefacation Processing of Wet Waste to Fuels

The Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) invests in research and development of new pathways for commercially viable conversion of biomass into drop-in ready transportation fuels, fuel blendstocks and products. The primary emphasis has been on terrestrial and algae feedstocks, but more recently BETO has begun to explore the potential of wet wastes for biofuel production, with focus on wastewater residuals, manure, food waste, and fats, oils and grease. A recent resource analysis estimates that 77 million dry tons per year of these wastes are generated annually, 65% of which are underutilized for any beneficial purpose. Approximately 14 million dry tons of the total resource is wastewater residuals (sludge and biosolids) generated at the nation’s wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Conversion of this resource into transportation fuels could significantly contribute to the creation of a new domestic bioenergy and bioproduct industry, while providing an economically and environmentally sustainable alternative for current waste disposal practices. Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a process that uses hot, pressurized water in the condensed phase to convert biomass to a thermally stable oil product, also known as “biocrude”, which can then be thermo-catalytically upgraded to hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks. HTL is conceptually simple, has a high carbon efficiency, and can be applied to a wide range of wet feedstocks at similar processing conditions. The purpose of this report is to document the conceptual design, economics and supporting data for a sludge-to-fuel pathway via HTL and biocrude upgrading. The configuration includes a HTL plant that is co-located with a WWTP and a larger scale biocrude upgrading plant for production of hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks. Experimental data from bench scale testing of a 1:1 mixture of primary:secondary sludges are used to establish the economic and technical assumptions for the analysis. The design represents a goal case for the pathway, targeting performance that is anticipated to be achievable by 2022 with further research and development. The year 2022 is BETO’s target year for verification of hydrocarbon biofuel pathways. As this analysis represents a goal case, assumed values of several design parameters represent improvements in the technology relative to what has currently been demonstrated in the laboratory. While HTL is fairly well developed and may therefore be ready for commercialization prior to 2022, there are specific advancements addressed in this analysis that are necessary to enhance performance compared to what has been demonstrated to date. In addition, an important aspect to the pathway is the upgrading of biocrude to fuel blendstock, an area that has received much less attention and requires significant research to validate the goal case performance parameters. The estimated plant gate minimum fuel selling price for fuel blendstock from sludge HTL and upgrading is $3.46/gasoline gallon equivalent (gge). This price is within the tolerance (+$0.49/gge) of BETO’s $3/gge programmatic cost target and illustrates that fuel blendstocks generated from HTL of sludge and centralized biocrude upgrading have the potential to be competitive with fossil fuels. This analysis illustrates the feasibility of HTL for point-of-generation conversion of waste feedstock at a scale 1/20th that of the standard lignocellulosic biorefinery scale typically used in BETO design cases. The relevance of this work reaches beyond wastewater treatment sludge to lay the groundwork for application to other distributed wet wastes and blends that together represent a significant resource of underutilized biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Diagnosing nuclear power plant pipe wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion using a passive, thermal non-destructive evaluation method: Feasibility assessment via numerical experiments

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) in nuclear power plant pipes is one of the leading causes of accidents, fatalities, damage and outages. Current FAC identification methods employ expensive sensing technology and are “active” methods, where the response of the piping system to an externally-generated thermal, mechanical or optical excitation must be measured. As a result, these techniques require a disruptive and time-consuming setup. Here we propose a method that utilizes pipe surface temperature measurements to passively monitor for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning without the need for expensive equipment or post-installation setup time. This diagnostic method utilizes a simulation data-driven diagnostic model to estimate the amount of thickness reduction in a pipe based on changes in measured steady-state pipe temperatures. In order to reduce the computational burden of generating large, simulation-based datasets, the behavior of the insulation of the pipe was modeled using a suitably calibrated heat transfer boundary parameter. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine system parameter(s), such as the temperature of water flowing inside the pipe, which significantly affect the steady state pipe wall temperature and could cause errors in diagnosis. Two diagnostic models, one using only the change in steady-state temperature as an indicator for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning and the other using water temperature as an additional diagnostic model input were evaluated for their ability to estimate thickness reductions in a pipe using simulated pipe wall temperature data. For the numerical experiments conducted in this work, both models estimated wall thickness with errors within 0.5 mm, indicating that the proposed technique can potentially be used as a low-cost, first-pass method for FAC monitoring.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Emittance and lifetime measurement with damping wigglers

National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) is a new third-generation storage ring light source at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The storage ring design calls for small horizontal emittance (<1 nm-rad) and diffraction-limited vertical emittance at 12 keV (8 pm-rad). Achieving low value of the beam size will enable novel user experiments with nm-range spatial and meV-energy resolution. The high-brightness NSLS-II lattice has been realized by implementing 30-cell double bend achromatic cells producing the horizontal emittance of 2 nm rad and then halving it further by using several Damping Wigglers (DWs). This paper is focused on characterization of the DW effects in the storage ring performance, namely, on reduction of the beam emittance, and corresponding changes in the energy spread and beam lifetime. The relevant beam parameters have been measured by the X-ray pinhole camera, beam position monitors, beam filling pattern monitor, and current transformers. In this paper, we compare the measured results of the beam performance with analytic estimates for the complement of the 3 DWs installed at the NSLS-II.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Direct deflection of Millicharged radiation

Millicharged particles are generic in theories of dark sectors. A cosmic or local abundance of them may be produced by the early universe, stellar environments, or the decay or annihilation of dark matter/dark energy. Furthermore, if such particles are light, these production channels result in a background of millicharged radiation. We show that light-shining-through-wall experiments employing superconducting RF cavities can also be used as “direct deflection” experiments to search for this relativistic background. The millicharged plasma is first subjected to an oscillating electromagnetic field of a driven cavity, which causes charge separation in the form of charge and current perturbations. In turn, these perturbations can propagate outwards and resonantly excite electromagnetic fields in a well-shielded cavity placed nearby, enabling detection. We estimate that future versions of the existing Dark SRF experiment can probe orders of magnitude of currently unexplored parameter space, including millicharges produced from the Sun, the cosmic neutrino background, or other mechanisms that generate a thermal abundance with energy density as small as ~ 10$^{−4}$ that of the cosmic microwave background.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Final STS-11 (41-B) best estimate trajectory products: Development and results from the first Cape landing

The STS-11 (41-B) postflight data processing is completed and the results published. The final reconstructed entry trajectory is presented. The various atmospheric sources available for this flight are discussed. Aerodynamic Best Estimate of Trajectory BET generation and plots from this file are presented. A definition of the major maneuvers effected is given. Physical constants, including spacecraft mass properties; final residuals from the reconstruction process; trajectory parameter listings; and an archival section are included.

Kelly, G. M.↗

Deep Learning and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate Resilience

Modeling and monitoring of earth’s processes through physical models and satellite observations at high resolutions is crucial for ensuring society’s ability to adapt to climate change. Deep learning (DL) has been shown to be a valuable tool for generating high resolution data, emulating physical models, and detecting weather patterns which can then be used to inform stakeholders and decision makers. However, both the data and model parameters contain substantial uncertainties that may alter users’ decisions. In this work we present two DL applications on high-resolution climate and satellite datasets using Bayesian neural networks to generate well calibrated uncertainty estimates.

Vandal, Thomas↗

Data Validation in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We present an overview of the Data Validation (DV) software component and its context within the Kepler ScienceOperations Center (SOC) pipeline and overall Kepler Science mission. The SOC pipeline performs a transiting planetsearch on the corrected light curves for over 150,000 targets across the focal plane array. We discuss the DV strategy forautomated validation of Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs) generated in the transiting planet search. For each TCE, atransiting planet model is fitted to the target light curve. A multiple planet search is conducted by repeating the transitingplanet search on the residual light curve after the model flux has been removed; if an additional detection occurs, aplanet model is fitted to the new TCE. A suite of automated tests are performed after all planet candidates have beenidentified. We describe a centroid motion test to determine the significance of the motion of the target photocenterduring transit and to estimate the coordinates of the transit source within the photometric aperture; a series of eclipsingbinary discrimination tests on the parameters of the planet model fits to all transits and the sequences of odd and eventransits; and a statistical bootstrap to assess the likelihood that the TCE would have been generated purely by chancegiven the target light curve with all transits removed.

photometry↗

Optimizing HAARP Beam Pattern for Generation of Strong F‐Region Field‐Aligned Irregularities

Field-aligned irregularities (FAIs) are the signatures of plasma turbulence and convection in the mid- and high-latitude F-region ionosphere, and also provide coherent backscatter targets for HF radars. To serve irregularity generation and characterization studies, we conducted experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) in August 2023 with the goal of identifying the optimal HAARP beam pattern for reliable generation of intense FAIs over a large geographic region. The HAARP beam patterns we tested were the commonly-used narrow beam, also known as L0, as well as the wider L1 and L2 “twisted” beam patterns. The size and intensity of the FAI region generated by each HAARP beam pattern was quantified using the Kodiak Island Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar. Stimulated electromagnetic emissions (SEE) from heater wave-FAI scattering were also recorded using a receiver located near HAARP. The L1 beam pattern was found to produce the strongest SuperDARN backscatter over the largest region. Although the heater frequency was intended to be tuned a few hundred kHz below the F-region critical frequency (foF2) during each experiment, difficulty in estimating foF2 during the campaign likely resulted in HAARP heating at significantly different frequency ranges around foF2 during each experiment. Although this additional free parameter complicated data analysis for this study, the SuperDARN and SEE measurements have led to further inquiry into the role heater frequency plays in the artificial generation of FAIs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design and Development of Novel Equiatomic Refractory Multi Principal elemental Alloys Based on MoNbTi System for Use in Irradiation Environments

Multi Principal Elemental Alloys (MPEA) have emerged as promising materials for next-generation nuclear reactors due to their exceptional irradiation resistance. Eight equiatomic MPEA based on the MoNbTi system, comprising of elements with low thermal neutron absorption cross-sections were explored using a combined approach employing empirical parameter estimations, and CALPHAD simulations by which the phases and elemental segregation observed in all the alloys in the as-cast state were predicted. Solution heat treatment at 1500°C transformed five alloys into single-phase matrix materials, enhancing homogeneity and reducing hardness. The densities of the alloys ranged between 6.47 to 7.68 g/cm3, hardness between 472 and 656 VHN, Young’s modulus between 142 GPa to 169 GPa, shear modulus between 54 GPa and 62 GPa, bulk modulus between 117 GPa to 194 GPa and Poisson’s ratio between 0.3 to 0.35. The in-situ high temperature Xray diffraction results, differential scanning calorimetry and dilatometry results up to 1000°C suggested the high temperature phase stability of the MPEA. Subsequent ageing heat treatment at 800 and 1000 oC for 96 hours revealed significant secondary phase precipitation in MoNbTiZr, MoNbTiZrV, and MoNbTiCrA. Oxidation studies at 800 oC for 24 hours in air revealed superior oxidation resistance and cubic rate law dependence in Cr containing MPEA especially in MoNbTiCrAl, while severe mass gain resulting in total disintegration and exfoliation in MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiZrV. This comprehensive study underscores the potential of novel MPEA as promising materials for advanced nuclear reactor applications, shedding light on their microstructural control, mechanical properties, thermal stability, and oxidation resistance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Semi-Supervised, Non-Intrusive Disaggregation of Nodal Load Profiles With Significant Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

It is of imperative interests for regional transmission organizations (RTOs) to effectively extract actual load profiles at transmission nodes with significant behind-the-meter solar generation, which remains a gap in the existing technology paradigm. This paper proposes an explicit yet efficient linear estimator to disaggregate actual load profiles at transmission buses with significant behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generations. The proposed estimator is based on disaggregating (i.e., extracting) at locations close to transmission buses under consideration. Further, to overcome the lack of “ground truth” and validate the performance of the proposed algorithms, we first propose semi-supervised mechanisms with parameter tuning as well as unsupervised clustering and leverage the unique characteristics of zero-crossing points in BTM solar peaking behaviors, which we refer to as “Zone-to-Node (Z2N)” methods. Next, we further propose a bi-level Node-to-Node (N2N) framework that improves the overall disaggregation performances compared to Z2N. Numerical results are presented using real-world data at PJM Interconnection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗