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At least 433 records · Page 24

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2, 2024, affecting all five sites. This dataset provides time series game camera photos, while the broader study includes continuous water quality monitoring, biogeochemical sampling of water and soils, precipitation data, and organic matter analysis. The other data types and additional metadata (include site environmental information) can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected photos. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) readme; (5) field protocol; and (6) folders of game camera photos. The game camera photos are organized by site with subfolders by month of collection. The field metadata contains a subset of the information collected that is most relevant to photo-processing. The full set of field metadata can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018020. All files are .csv, .pdf, or .jpg.

Burn severity↗

Energize: An Interactive Evaluation Tool for Engaging the General Public with Energy Decision Making - Final Report

The public has an ever-increasing interest in the economic, environmental, and social impacts of global energy production. To support informed decision making, the scientific community has a responsibility to communicate reliable and straight-forward information to the general public, in an engaging way, regarding energy systems and how choices made at different stages of an energy technology life cycle can impact the cost, amount of materials used, and waste produced. Our objective is to enhance public engagement via an interactive electrical energy game (Energ!ze) through which players interact with one another in their quest to develop an electrical energy portfolio that optimizes economic (e.g., company profit), environmental (e.g., reduced CO 2 emissions), and social (e.g., public opinion) impacts. The design and development of Energ!ze was an iterative process involving an interdisciplinary team of engineers, discipline-based scientists, computer scientists, and education experts. The development objectives were two-fold: (1) Accurate and quantifiable modeling of electrical energy systems and (2) Engaging and interactive user interface within the construct of the game narrative. The major game mechanics in the current playable Energ!ze version focus on economic metrics, and the database is scaffolded to add environmental and social metrics for future versions. This report details the outcome of the funding period (Section 2 and 3) and describes the development process, along with recommendations for future development (Section 4).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control of Building Loads to Support Grid Services

Residential buildings consume 4.4 quads of electricity annually, approximately 37% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. This represents a vast resource that can be used for demand management and other ancillary services. This project aims to develop a robust, scalable hierarchical transactional control mechanism incorporating elements of model-free control (MFC) and game theory to harness buildings to provide ancillary services to the grid. This approach is being taken to address the challenges of incorporating traditional transactional control schemes into existing buildings. The challenges include small individual building sizes requiring aggregation of many buildings, unpredictable energy usage that makes model identification difficult, and satisfying the sensitive occupant comfort constraints. In the proposed approach, by separating the control mechanism into two layers above and below the load aggregator, MFC can be used below the aggregator to modulate flexible building loads in response to pricing signals with guaranteed performance. This allows the burden of identifying an accurate model of the system to be shifted to the above-aggregator layer, where fluctuations in individual building usage have less impact on predicted building system behavior. Game theory concepts can then be used to determine pricing curves and control signals among regional aggregators. Managing this control in a game-theoretic approach will allow us to build in financial incentives that increase customer engagement. Additionally, the usage of MFC necessitates less burdensome computational and communication requirements, thus, it is easily deployable on small, embedded devices. In a broader sense, developing a strategy capable of effectively incorporating residential and small commercial buildings will allow greater throughput of existing and emerging grid services in addition to future transactive energy grid management methods. Using MFC within a hierarchical control architecture will allow the shifting of existing forecasting challenges to an aggregate level, where dynamics are slower and more predictable. This will enable a smooth interface between the grid services requests of utilities and the reliable control required by participating buildings. MFC, which supports distributed control architecture, permits a scalable solution that can be deployed to neighborhood-size systems as well as individual buildings. This project focuses on three objectives: (1) developing the mathematical framework, algorithm toolkit, and software toolset of the two-layer transactive control testbed; (2) developing a scalable solution for application over many residential and small-size commercial buildings with sparse distributed communication; and (3) field testing and implementation on hardware of the control strategies developed in the previous two objectives. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2025 targets timeframe. An open-source control framework for exploiting variability and dispatchability of building loads will be delivered as the outcome of the project. This capability enables greater participation of loads in electricity markets and ancillary services that are both useful for the utility and financially beneficial for building owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Mutual Detectability: A Targeted SETI Strategy That Avoids the SETI Paradox

As our ability to undertake searches for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) grows, so does interest in the controversial endeavor of messaging extraterrestrial intelligence (METI). METI proponents point to the SETI Paradox—if all civilizations refrain from METI then SETI is futile. I introduce mutual detectability as a game-theoretic strategy to increase the success potential of targeted SETI. Mutual detectability comprises four laws that establish how SETI participants can engage each other based on mutual evidence of mutual existence. I argue that the party whom both SETI participants can judge to have better quality evidence, or common denominator information (CDI), has an onus to transmit to avoid the SETI Paradox. Transiting exoplanets within the Earth Transit Zone form a target subset that satisfies mutual detectability requirements. I identify the intrinsic time-integrated transit signal strength, which for Earth is 10{sup 3} L{sub ⊙} ppm hours yr{sup −1}, as suitable CDI. Civilizations on habitable-zone planets of radius R{sub p}/R{sub ⊕}≲(L{sub ∗}/L{sub ⊙}){sup −1/7} have superior CDI on us, and so under the mutual detectability framework have game-theory incentive (onus) to transmit. While the onus to transmit falls on us for habitable planets around L{sub *} > L{sub ⊙} stars, considerations of relative stellar frequency, main-sequence lifetime and planet occurrence rates mean that such systems are likely to be in a small minority. Surveys of the Earth Transit Zone for Earth-analog transiting planets around subsolar luminosity hosts would facilitate targeted SETI programs for civilizations who have game-theory incentive to transmit signals to us. A choice to remain silent, by not engaging in METI toward such systems, does not in this case fuel concerns of a SETI Paradox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remote sensing in Michigan for land resource management: Waterfowl habitat management at Pointe Mouillee

For many years the Pointe Mouillee State Game Area, located on the Lake Erie shoreline just south of Detroit, has been a prime waterfowl habitat. The usefulness of the site for this purpose has been impaired because of the gradual deterioration of the marshland and severe flooding and storms during the spring of 1973. Also, it has been proposed that a dredge spoils area be located in or near the marsh. To aid the future management of a diked refuge area of 148 hectares within the State Game Area, a detailed vegetation inventory was prepared by photointerpretation and a generalized vegetation inventory was obtained by processing multispectral scanner imagery. Also, an analysis was conducted to determine the magnitude of past losses of marshland and the possibilities of replacing this lost habitat. The analysis indicated that large additions to waterfowl habitat could be provided by changes in management of vegetation in existing sections of the State Game Area, through acquisition and conversion of adjacent land by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, and by the proposed construction of a barrier dike offshore of Pointe Mouillee. Altogether, the various measures considered in this report could affect a total area of nearly 13 sq. km.

Sellman, A. N.↗

A robust momentum management and attitude control system for the space station

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very assurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Speyer, J. L.↗

Robust momentum management and attitude control system for the Space Station

A game theoretic controller is synthesized for momentum management and attitude control of the Space Station in the presence of uncertainties in the moments of inertia. Full state information is assumed since attitude rates are assumed to be very accurately measured. By an input-output decomposition of the uncertainty in the system matrices, the parameter uncertainties in the dynamic system are represented as an unknown gain associated with an internal feedback loop (IFL). The input and output matrices associated with the IFL form directions through which the uncertain parameters affect system response. If the quadratic form of the IFL output augments the cost criterion, then enhanced parameter robustness is anticipated. By considering the input and the input disturbance from the IFL as two noncooperative players, a linear-quadratic differential game is constructed. The solution in the form of a linear controller is used for synthesis. Inclusion of the external disturbance torques results in a dynamic feedback controller which consists of conventional PID (proportional integral derivative) control and cyclic disturbance rejection filters. It is shown that the game theoretic design allows large variations in the inertias in directions of importance.

Rhee, Ihnseok↗

Robust neighboring extremal guidance for the advanced launch system

With the availability of modern flight computers, realtime neighboring extremal guidance seems feasible. To overcome sensitivity to unknown system parameters and environmental uncertainties, a robust neighboring extremal guidance scheme is proposed. About the optimal trajectory, the accessory problem in the calculus of variations is formed, generating a quadratic cost criterion in the perturbed states and controls. By formulating a disturbance attenuation problem based upon the second variation cost criterion, a differential game is formulated. The game theoretic cost criterion is minimized with respect to the perturbed control but maximized with respect to the unknown parameters in the linearized dynamics. The resulting differential game problem gives rise to a two-point boundary-value problem solved using the sweep method. The sweep method solution provides a linear robust neighboring extremal guidance scheme that is applied to the Advanced Launch System.

Bain, John↗

Semigroup approximation and robust stabilization of distributed parameter systems

Theoretical results that enable rigorous statements of convergence and exponential stability of Galerkin approximations of LQR controls for infinite dimensional, or distributed parameter, systems have proliferated over the past ten years. In addition, extensive progress has been made over the same time period in the derivation of robust control design strategies for finite dimensional systems. However, the study of the convergence of robust finite dimensional controllers to robust controllers for infinite dimensional systems remains an active area of research. We consider a class of soft-constrained differential games evolving in a Hilbert space. Under certain conditions, a saddle point control can be given in feedback form in terms of a solution to a Riccati equation. By considering a related LQR problem, we can show a convergence result for finite dimensional approximations of this differential game. This yields a computational algorithm for the feedback gain that can be derived from similar strategies employed in infinite dimensional LQR control design problems. The approach described in this paper also inherits the additional properties of stability robustness common to game theoretic methods in finite dimensional analysis. These theoretical convergence and stability results are verified in several numerical experiments.

Kurdila, A. J.↗

Optimal Reward Functions in Distributed Reinforcement Learning

We consider the design of multi-agent systems so as to optimize an overall world utility function when (1) those systems lack centralized communication and control, and (2) each agents runs a distinct Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm. A crucial issue in such design problems is to initialize/update each agent's private utility function, so as to induce best possible world utility. Traditional 'team game' solutions to this problem sidestep this issue and simply assign to each agent the world utility as its private utility function. In previous work we used the 'Collective Intelligence' framework to derive a better choice of private utility functions, one that results in world utility performance up to orders of magnitude superior to that ensuing from use of the team game utility. In this paper we extend these results. We derive the general class of private utility functions that both are easy for the individual agents to learn and that, if learned well, result in high world utility. We demonstrate experimentally that using these new utility functions can result in significantly improved performance over that of our previously proposed utility, over and above that previous utility's superiority to the conventional team game utility.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Presence Personalization and Persistence: A New Approach to Building Archives to Support Collaborative Research

We discuss approaches to building archives that support the way most science is done. Today research is done in formal teams and informal groups. However our on-line services are designed to work with a single user. We have begun prototyping a new approach to building archives in which support for collaborative research is built in from the start. We organize the discussion along three elements that we believe to be necessary for effective support: We must enable user presence in the archive environment; users must be able to interact. Users must be able to personalize the environment, adding data and capabilities useful to themselves and their team. These changes must be persistent: subsequent sessions must be able to build upon previous sessions. In building the archive we see the large multi-player interactive games as a paradigm of how this approach can work. These three 'P's are essential in gaming as well and we shall use insights from the gaming world and virtual reality systems like Second Life in our prototype.

McGlynn, Thomas A.↗

The Application of Modeling and Simulation to the Behavioral Deficit of Autism

This abstract describes a research effort to apply technological advances in virtual reality simulation and computer-based games to create behavioral modification programs for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The research investigates virtual social skills training within a 3D game environment to diminish the impact of ASD social impairments and to increase learning capacity for optimal intellectual capability. Individuals with autism will encounter prototypical social contexts via computer interface and will interact with 3D avatars with predefined roles within a game-like environment. Incremental learning objectives will combine to form a collaborative social environment. A secondary goal of the effort is to begin the research and development of virtual reality exercises aimed at triggering the release of neurotransmitters to promote critical aspects of synaptic maturation at an early age to change the course of the disease.

Anton, John J.↗

Zero-Fidelity Simulation: Engaging Team Coordination without Physical, Functional, or Psychological Re-Creation

Team coordination is essential across domains, enabling efficiency and safety. As technology improves, our temptation is to simulate with ever-higher fidelity, by making simulators re-create reality through their physical interfaces, functionality, and by making participants believe they are undertaking the simulated task. However, high-fidelity simulations often miss salient human-human work practices. We introduce the concept of zero-fidelity simulation (ZFS), a move away from literal high-fidelity mimesis of the concrete environment. ZFS alternatively models cooperation and communication as the basis of simulation. The ZFS Team Coordination Game (TeC) is developed from observation of fire emergency response work practice. We identify ways in which team members are mutually dependent on one another for information, and use these as the basis for the ZFS game design. The design creates a need for cooperation by restricting individual activity and requiring communication. The present research analyzes the design of interdependence in the validated ZFS TeC game. We successfully simulate interdependence between roles in emergency response without simulating the concrete environment.

Toups, Zachary O.↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Dedicated Nano-Launch Technologies

Recent technology advancements have enabled the development of small cheap satellites that can perform useful functions in the space environment. Currently, the only low cost option for getting these payloads into orbit is through ride share programs - small satellites awaiting the launch of a larger satellite, and then riding along on the same launcher. As a result, these small satellite customers await primary payload launches and a backlog exists. An alternative option would be dedicated nano-launch systems built and operated to provide more flexible launch services, higher availability, and affordable prices. The potential customer base that would drive requirements or support a business case includes commercial, academia, civil government and defense. Further, NASA technology investments could enable these alternative game changing options. With this context, in 2013 the Game Changing Development (GCD) program funded a NASA team to investigate the feasibility of dedicated nano-satellite launch systems with a recurring cost of less than $2 million per launch for a 5 kg payload to low Earth orbit. The team products would include potential concepts, technologies and factors for enabling the ambitious cost goal, exploring the nature of the goal itself, and informing the GCD program technology investment decision making process. This paper provides an overview of the life cycle analysis effort that was conducted in 2013 by an inter-center NASA team. This effort included the development of reference nano-launch system concepts, developing analysis processes and models, establishing a basis for cost estimates (development, manufacturing and launch) suitable to the scale of the systems, and especially, understanding the relationship of potential game changing technologies to life cycle costs, as well as other factors, such as flights per year.

nanolaunch↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Dedicated Nano-Launch Technologies

Recent technology advancements have enabled the development of small cheap satellites that can perform useful functions in the space environment. Currently, the only low cost option for getting these payloads into orbit is through ride share programs. As a result, these launch opportunities await primary payload launches and a backlog exists. An alternative option would be dedicated nano-launch systems built and operated to provide more flexible launch services, higher availability, and affordable prices. The potential customer base that would drive requirements or support a business case includes commercial, academia, civil government and defense. Further, NASA technology investments could enable these alternative game changing options.With this context, in 2013 the Game Changing Development (GCD) program funded a NASA team to investigate the feasibility of dedicated nano-satellite launch systems with a recurring cost of less than $2 million per launch for a 5 kg payload to low Earth orbit. The team products would include potential concepts, technologies and factors for enabling the ambitious cost goal, exploring the nature of the goal itself, and informing the GCD program technology investment decision making process. This paper provides an overview of the life cycle analysis effort that was conducted in 2013 by an inter-center NASA team. This effort included the development of reference nano-launch system concepts, developing analysis processes and models, establishing a basis for cost estimates (development, manufacturing and launch) suitable to the scale of the systems, and especially, understanding the relationship of potential game changing technologies to life cycle costs, as well as other factors, such as flights per year.

modeling↗

Interactive Mars: A Direct-Experience Mission

As NASA prepares to explore Mars, we describe an innovative architecture that could be based on public-private partnerships to offset the costs of such a mission, while demonstrating many of the key technologies—propulsion, communications, autonomy, and landing systems—that will be needed for future human exploration. We propose that NASA could use this capability to deliver dozens of small rovers to several sites on Mars to enable the creation of interactive games that would be operated commercially and sponsored privately. NASA would get a reduced cost to demonstrate a portion of the infrastructure needed for human exploration, and the private sector would get access to a new market and sponsorship opportunities for a broadly popular activity. In addition, our proposed architecture could enable a new, intuitive means for scientists to interpret data and conduct ground operations. This proposal is to broadly develop the overall concept, while focusing on the design of the novel communications system, developing requirements for the software architecture needed to control the rovers and implement gaming, and developing gaming concepts.

Carolyn R. Mercer↗