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DOE OSTI2026

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cool interstellar matter in early-type galaxies

IRAS fluxes of early-type galaxies have been examined. From studying a magnitude-limited sample, it seems that although the statistics are poor, perhaps a third of these objects and possibly even more have an appreciable amount of dust. In general, the infrared emission is strongest at 100 microns, and quite often the far-infrared luminosity of an early-type galaxy can be well in excess of 10 to the 8th solar luminosities. The data are most easily understood if the infrared results from dust reprocessing of starlight. Within 3 kpc of the center of an early-type galaxy, there may be more cold matter than hot gas; recent models that the interstellar media of these objects are composed primarily of hot gas appear to be oversimplifications. The X-ray data do indicate that the thermal pressure in the early-type galaxies often is sufficiently high that in view of the expected low temperatures of their interstellar clouds, it can be speculated that the cold material that is present may be forming low-mass stars.

Jura, M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the MagLim lens sample

The cosmological information extracted from photometric surveys is most robust when multiple probes of the large scale structure of the Universe are used. Two of the most sensitive probes are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the way galaxies trace matter (the galaxy bias factor). The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 deg 2 of the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies, especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two flat cosmological models, the Standard Model with dark energy and cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) a variation with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). Both models are marginalized over 25 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. In Λ CDM we obtain for the matter density Ω m = 0.320 - 0.034 + 0.041 and for the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.778 - 0.031 + 0.037 , at 68% C.L. The latter is only 1 σ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In w CDM we find Ω m = 0.32 - 0.046 + 0.044 , S 8 = 0.777 - 0.051 + 0.049 and dark energy equation of state w = - 1.031 - 0.379 + 0.218 . We find that including smaller scales, while marginalizing over nonlinear galaxy bias, improves the constraining power in the Ω m - S 8 plane by 31% and in the Ω m - w plane by 41% while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions ( 3 × 2 pt ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Quasars as indicators of galactic ages

Theoretical models of QSO evolution and their use in estimating the ages of galaxies containing QSOs are discussed, with a focus on the problems involved in extrapolating from statistical data on relatively nearby objects (z less than 2) to characterize distant objects. Graphs and histograms are provided, and it is concluded that the sharp decrease in the number of QSOs between z = 2 and z =3, if not the result of obscuration or some other selection effect, makes it probable that the galaxy-formation processes which led to the formation of the QSOs occurred at z greater than 5. In that case, the QSOs would be one of the only observational probes of these processes. Mechanisms which could account for the time delay between galaxy formation and QSO turn-on are considered.

Cavaliere, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Late-formed haloes prefer to host quiescent central galaxies – I. Observational results

ABSTRACT The star formation and quenching of central galaxies are regulated by the assembly histories of their host haloes. In this work, we use the central stellar mass to halo mass ratio as a proxy of halo formation time, and we devise three different models, from the physical hydrodynamical simulation to the empirical statistical model, to demonstrate its robustness. With this proxy, we inferred the dependence of the central galaxy properties on the formation time of their host haloes using the SDSS main galaxy sample, where central galaxies are identified with the halo-based group finder. We found that central galaxies living in late-formed haloes have higher quiescent fractions and lower spiral fractions than their early-formed counterparts by $\lesssim 8~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ . Finally, we demonstrate that the group finding algorithm has a negligible impact on our results.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-percent Survey: Evidence for Assembly Bias from Low-redshift Counts-in-cylinders Measurements

Abstract We explore the galaxy-halo connection information that is available in low-redshift samples from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We model the halo occupation distribution (HOD) from z = 0.1 to 0.3 using Survey Validation 3 (SV3; a.k.a., the One-Percent Survey) data of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. In addition to more commonly used metrics, we incorporate counts-in-cylinders (CiC) measurements, which drastically tighten HOD constraints. Our analysis is aided by the Python package, galtab , which enables the rapid, precise prediction of CiC for any HOD model available in halotools . This methodology allows our Markov chains to converge with much fewer trial points, and enables even more drastic speedups due to its GPU portability. Our HOD fits constrain characteristic halo masses tightly and provide statistical evidence for assembly bias, especially at lower luminosity thresholds: the HOD of central galaxies in z ∼ 0.15 samples with limiting absolute magnitude M r < −20.0 and M r < −20.5 samples is positively correlated with halo concentration with a significance of 99.9% and 99.5%, respectively. Our models also favor positive central assembly bias for the brighter M r < −21.0 sample at z ∼ 0.25 (94.8% significance), but there is no significant evidence for assembly bias with the same luminosity threshold at z ∼ 0.15. We provide our constraints for each threshold sample’s characteristic halo masses, assembly bias, and other HOD parameters. These constraints are expected to be significantly tightened with future DESI data, which will span an area 100 times larger than that of SV3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Detection of large-scale alignment of Lick counts around Abell clusters

The possible tendency of galaxies to be distributed in an aligned fashion, on sheets or filaments, on scales greater than the Abell radius, has been tested by a variety of statistics. The subject remains controversial because the statistical tests have either not been sensitive to the alignment or capable of unambiguously signalling alignment in a general, clumpy distribution of galaxies. The present approach combines ideas of Bingelli (1982) and Fry and Peebles (1980) in an examination of the cross correlation of Lick counts relative to the preferred direction defined by the cluster. This can substantially reduce the noise, and it is suggested on this basis that alignment has been found on large scales for Lick galaxy counts and Abell cluster positions and their angles.

Argyres, P. C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Counterpart identification and classification for eRASS1 and characterisation of the active galactic nuclei content

Context. Accurately accounting for the Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) phase in galaxy evolution requires a large, clean AGN sample. This is now possible with SRG/eROSITA, which completed its first all-sky X-ray survey (eRASS1) on June 12, 2020. The public Data Release 1 (DR1, Jan 31, 2024) includes 930,203 sources from the western Galactic hemisphere. Aims. The data enable the selection of a large AGN sample and the discovery of rare sources. However, scientific return depends on accurate characterisation of the X-ray emitters, requiring high-quality multi-wavelength data. This paper presents the identification and classification of optical and infrared counterparts to eRASS1 sources. Methods. Counterparts to eRASS1 X-ray point sources were identified using Gaia DR3, CatWISE2020, and Legacy Survey DR10 (LS10) with the Bayesian NWAY algorithm and trained priors. Sources were classified as Galactic or extragalactic via a machine-learning model combining optical/IR and X-ray properties, trained on a reference sample. For extragalactic LS10 sources, photometric redshifts were computed using CIRCLEZ. Results. Within the LS10 footprint, all 656,614 eROSITA/DR1 sources have at least one possible optical counterpart; ∼570 000 are extragalactic and likely AGN. Half are new detections compared to AllWISE, Gaia, and Quaia AGN catalogues. Gaia and CatWISE2020 counterparts are less reliable, due to the survey’s shallowness and the limited amount of features available to assess the probability of being an X-ray emitter. In the Galactic plane, where the overdensity of stellar sources also increases the chance of associations, using conservative reliability cuts, we identified approximately 18 000 Gaia and 55 000 CatWISE2020 extragalactic sources. Conclusions. We have released three high-quality counterpart catalogues – plus the training and validation sets – as a benchmark for the field. These datasets have many applications, but in particular, they empower researchers to build AGN samples tailored for completeness and purity, accelerating the hunt for the Universe’s most energetic engines.

X-rays: general↗

DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly detection in Hyper Suprime-Cam galaxy images with generative adversarial networks

ABSTRACT The problem of anomaly detection in astronomical surveys is becoming increasingly important as data sets grow in size. We present the results of an unsupervised anomaly detection method using a Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) on nearly one million optical galaxy images in the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey. The WGAN learns to generate realistic HSC-like galaxies that follow the distribution of the data set; anomalous images are defined based on a poor reconstruction by the generator and outlying features learned by the discriminator. We find that the discriminator is more attuned to potentially interesting anomalies compared to the generator, and compared to a simpler autoencoder-based anomaly detection approach, so we use the discriminator-selected images to construct a high-anomaly sample of ∼13 000 objects. We propose a new approach to further characterize these anomalous images: we use a convolutional autoencoder to reduce the dimensionality of the residual differences between the real and WGAN-reconstructed images and perform UMAP clustering on these. We report detected anomalies of interest including galaxy mergers, tidal features, and extreme star-forming galaxies. A follow-up spectroscopic analysis of one of these anomalies is detailed in the Appendix; we find that it is an unusual system most likely to be a metal-poor dwarf galaxy with an extremely blue, higher-metallicity H ii region. We have released a catalogue with the WGAN anomaly scores; the code and catalogue are available at https://github.com/kstoreyf/anomalies-GAN-HSC; and our interactive visualization tool for exploring the clustered data is at https://weirdgalaxi.es.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

The nova rate in the elliptical component of NGC 5128

The results are presented of a five year nova survey of NGC 5128 performed with an H-alpha filter at the prime focus of the CTIO 4 m telescope. In all, 16 novae were detected, of which 12 are members of a statistically complete and homogeneous sample unaffected by the absorption lane of the galaxy. When normalized to B luminosity, the nova rate in the elliptical component of NGC 5128 is 2.7 + or - 1.0 times less than that observed in the bulge of M31. However, when normalized in the infrared K bandpass, the two nova rates are identical, and comparable to that measured in the Large Magellanic Cloud. These data suggest that (1) the percentage of binary stars is approximately constant over a large range of star-forming environments, (2) the nova rate in our own galaxy is between 11 and 46/yr, and (3) nova rates are not strongly affected by tidal captures in bright globular clusters.

Ciardullo, Robin↗

NASA NTRS1992

The Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment

The technical features are described of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, which aims to detect a statistically significant number of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge. Clusters of galaxies observed during the 1992 season are listed and discussed and the reduction methods are described. Future plans are addressed.

Udalski, A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The first detection of a collapsed core globular cluster in M31

We report on the observations of a globular cluster (designated G105 = Bo 343) in the nearby spiral galaxy M31, using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Image deconvolutions using three different methods indicate that this cluster has a density profile with the morphology characteristic of stellar systems which have undergone core collapse, i.e., a power-law density cusp near the center. This is the first such detection in a galaxy as distant as M31. This discovery may lead to extensive future statistical studies of the globular cluster system of M31, and thus a better understanding of its evolution.

Bendinelli, O.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Structure of merger remnants. 4: Isophotal shapes

This paper examines the shapes of isophotes of galaxy merger remnants. More specifically, we perform a series of numerical experiments to study galaxy mergers. The simulations explore a variety of encounter geometries, types of progenitor galaxies, and particle numbers. We 'observe' each of the remnants from 64 viewpoints to estimate how the isophotal shapes vary with the orientation of the remnant. Also, by comparing the results from the various simulations, we learn how encounter geometry and the structure of the progenitors can affect the shape of the remnants. The encounter geometry, the structure of the progenitors, and the orientation of the remnant play deciding roles in the shape of the 'observed' isophotes, so much so that these simulated merger remnants have both 'boxy' and 'disky' isophotes and ellipticities ranging from E0 to E7. Thus, the shapes seen in our merger simulation remnants span a similar range to observed isophotal shapes of real galaxies. Furthermore, to estimate the errors in this analysis, we introduce the statistical bootstrap. Bootstrapping is used rather widely in observational astronomy when dealing with small samples; however, its use is practically unheard of for tackling theoretical problems. We believe that bootstrapping can be extremely useful for dealing with the small samples found in numerical simulations; therefore, we present the rudiments and basis of the technique with emphasis on its use in N-body calculations. Also, by comparing the errors for the smaller simulations with those of the larger ones, we speculate on the number of particles required to accurately explore isophotal shapes in simulations.

Heyl, Jeremy S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Applications of Bayesian Statistics to Problems in Gamma-Ray Bursts

This presentation will describe two applications of Bayesian statistics to Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBS). The first attempts to quantify the evidence for a cosmological versus galactic origin of GRBs using only the observations of the dipole and quadrupole moments of the angular distribution of bursts. The cosmological hypothesis predicts isotropy, while the galactic hypothesis is assumed to produce a uniform probability distribution over positive values for these moments. The observed isotropic distribution indicates that the Bayes factor for the cosmological hypothesis over the galactic hypothesis is about 300. Another application of Bayesian statistics is in the estimation of chance associations of optical counterparts with galaxies. The Bayesian approach is preferred to frequentist techniques here because the Bayesian approach easily accounts for galaxy mass distributions and because one can incorporate three disjoint hypotheses: (1) bursts come from galactic centers, (2) bursts come from galaxies in proportion to luminosity, and (3) bursts do not come from external galaxies. This technique was used in the analysis of the optical counterpart to GRB970228.

Meegan, Charles A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Overview and Status of EXCLAIM, the Experiment for Cryogenic Large-Aperture Intensity Mapping

The EXperiment for Cryogenic Large-Aperture Intensity Mapping (EXCLAIM) is a balloon-borne far-infrared telescope that will survey star formation history over cosmological time scales to improve our un-derstanding of why the star formation rate declined at redshiftz <2, despite continued clustering of darkmatter. Specifically, EXCLAIM will map the emission of redshifted carbon monoxide and singly ionized carbon lines in windows over a redshift range0< z <3.5, following an innovative approach known asintensity mapping. Intensity mapping measures the statistics of brightness fluctuations of cumulative lineemissions, as opposed to detecting individual galaxies, thus enabling a blind, complete census of the emittinggas. To detect this emission unambiguously, EXCLAIM will cross-correlate with a rich spectroscopic galaxycatalog. The EXCLAIM mission will use a cryogenic design to cool the telescope optics to approximately1.7K. The telescope will feature a90-cm primary mirror to probe spatial scales on the sky from the linearregime up to shot-noise-dominated scales. The telescope optical elements will couple to six μ-Spec spectrom-eter modules, operating over a420–540-GHz frequency band with a spectral resolution of512and featuringMicrowave Kinetic Inductance Detectors (MKIDs). In the baseline design, the detectors will be read out witha Radio Frequency System-on-Chip (RFSoC). The cryogenic telescope and the sensitive detectors will allowEXCLAIM to reach high sensitivity in spectral windows of low emission in the upper atmosphere. Here, anoverview of the mission design and development status since the start of the EXCLAIM project in early 2019 is presented.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗