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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Acetone in the atmosphere: Distribution, sources, and sinks

Acetone (CH3COCH3) was found to be the dominant nonmethane organic species present in the atmosphere sampled primarily over eastern Canada (0-6 km, 35 deg-65 deg N) during ABLE3B (July to August 1990). A concentration range of 357 to 2310 ppt (= 10(exp -12) v/v) with a mean value of 1140 +/- 413 ppt was measured. Under extremely clean conditions, generally involving Arctic flows, lowest (background) mixing ratios of 550 +/- 100 ppt were present in much of the troposphere studied. Correlations between atmospheric mixing ratios of acetone and select species such as C2H2, CO, C3H8, C2Cl4 and isoprene provided important clues to its possible sources and to the causes of its atmospheric variability. Biomass burning as a source of acetone has been identified for the first time. By using atmospheric data and three-dimensional photochemical models, a global acetone source of 40-60 Tg (= 10(exp 12) g)/yr is estimated to be present. Secondary formation from the atmospheric oxidation of precursor hydrocarbons (principally propane, isobutane, and isobutene) provides the single largest source (51%). The remainder is attributable to biomass burning (26%), direct biogenic emissions (21%), and primary anthropogenic emissions (3%). Atmospheric removal of acetone is estimated to be due to photolysis (64%), reaction with OH radicals (24%), and deposition (12%). Model calculations also suggest that acetone photolysis contributed significantly to PAN formation (100-200 ppt) in the middle and upper troposphere of the sampled region and may be important globally. While the source-sink equation appears to be roughly balanced, much more atmospheric and source data, especially from the southern hemisphere, are needed to reliably quantify the atmospheric budget of acetone.

Singh, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stability of the Martian atmosphere: Is heterogeneous catalysis essential?

A comprehensive homogeneous gas phase photochemical model is developed to study the problem of stability of the Martian atmosphere. The one-dimensional model extends from the ground up to 220 km, passing through the homopause at 125 km. The model thus couples the lower (neutral) atmosphere to the ionosphere above which provides significant downward flux of carbon monoxide and oxygen atoms. It is concluded on the basic of currently accepted values for globally and seasonally averaged water vapor abundance, dust opacity and the middle atmospheric eddy mixing coefficient, as well as the relevant laboratory data (particularly the temperature dependence of CO2 absorption cross section and the rate constant for CO+OH reaction), that the rate of re-formation of carbon dioxide exceeds its photolytic destruction rate by about 40%. Furthermore, it is found that this result is virtually independent of the choice of eddy mixing coefficient, unless its value in the middle atmosphere exceeds 10(exp 8) sq cm/sec or is far smaller than 10(exp 5)sq cm/sec, or the dust opacity, unless it exceeds unity, or the water vapor mixing ratio at the surface, unless it is far smaller (less than or = 1 ppm) or far greater (greater than or = 500 ppm) than the average value (approximately 150 ppm). Since none of these extremes represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions on Mars, we propose that the present model requires existence of a mechanism to throttle down the recycling rate of carbon dioxide on Mars. Therefore, it is suggested that a heterogeneous process which provides a sink to the species that participate in the recycling of CO2, i.e., H2O, H2O2, OH, CO or O, in particular, may be necessary to bring about the balance between the CO2 recycling rate and its photolytic destruction rate. Aerosols of dust or ice (pure or doped water or carbon dioxide ice present in the atmosphere of Mars) can provide the appropriate adsorption sites for the above heterogeneous process. Despite our conclusion that some heterogeneous process may be needed, it is important to recognize that one-dimensional models can only provide first-order results which, most likely, represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions. However, it is only after actual temporal, latitudinal and longitudinal variations of relevant atmospheric parameters are included in the model that one can determine fuly whether the problem of atmospheric stabiltiy still continues to persist and whether some heterogeneous process is required to correct it.

Atreya, Sushil K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Validation of a New Procedure for Impedance Eduction in Flow

A new impedance eduction procedure is validated by comparing the educed impedance spectrum to that of an older but well-tested eduction procedure. The older procedure requires the installation of a microphone array in the liner test section but the new procedure removes this requirement. A 12.7-mm stainless steel plate and a conventional liner consisting of a perforated plate bonded to a honeycomb core are tested. Test data is acquired from a grazing flow, impedance tube facility for a range of source frequencies and mean flow Mach numbers for which only plane waves are cut on. For the stainless steel plate, the educed admittance spectrum using the new procedure shows an improvement over that of the old procedure. This improvement shows up primarily in the educed conductance spectrum. Both eduction procedures show discrepancies in educed admittance in the mid-frequency range. Indications are that this discrepancy is triggered by an inconsistency between the measured eduction data (that contains boundary layer effects) and the two eduction models (for which the boundary layer is neglected). For the conventional liner, both eduction procedures are in very good agreement with each other. Small discrepancies occur for one or two frequencies in the mid-frequency range and for frequencies beyond the cut on frequency of higher-order duct modes. This discrepancy in the midfrequency range occurs because an automated optimizer is used to educe the impedance and the objective function used by the optimizer is extremely flat and therefore sensitive to initial starting values. The discrepancies at frequencies beyond the cut on frequency of higher order duct modes are due to the assumption of only plane waves in the impedance eduction model, although higher order modes are propagating in the impedance tube facility.

Watson, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai‘i

Scientists at Berkeley Lab have teamed up with The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology for building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai’i. The team is assessing the data necessary to model the feasibility of deploying this technology, the actual models that will be used, and what hurdles need to be overcome to install a demonstration case. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project, and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, making it crucial to select sites with large enough values of these properties. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Both closed-loop and open-loop systems are being investigated. Another option being considered is using cool seawater as the source of chill. Currently work is progressing on two fronts. A hydrogeologic model for a closed-loop system is being developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus, where a subsurface karst system immediately downgradient of the borefield may provide efficient removal of heated groundwater. The team will also develop a technoeconomic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air conditioning system. At the state scale, geographic information system (GIS) layers of various attributes relevant for GHE are being combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i.

Doughty, C↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of Near-Surface Air Temperature from Reanalysis over the United States and Ukraine: Application to Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting

In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.

GSOD↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for: Patel et al. Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

This dataset contains data and code used for the paper "Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: A comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data" [DOI COMING SOON]A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Measurements of these gases’ fluxes are often performed using closed-chamber incubations in the laboratory or in situ, i.e., in the field. Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. It is crucial to understand the magnitude and reasons for any differences, as these data are used to parametrize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we specifically examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO2 and CH4 measurements. We use Q10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses, because of the ubiquity of this metric in biological and Earth system sciences and its importance to many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ, and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q10, these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory (n = 1110) and field (n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH4 Q10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata. This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/field_lab_q10 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7106554).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Non-Classical Stress Concentration Behavior in a Radically Stretched Hyperelastic Sheet Containing a Circular Hole

Non-classical stress concentration behavior in a stretched circular hyperelastic sheet (outer radius b = 10 in., thickness t = 0.0625 in.) containing a central hole (radius a = 0.5 in.) was analyzed. The hyperelastic sheet was subjected to different levels of remote radial stretchings. Nastran large-strain large-deformation analysis and the Blatz-Ko large deformation theory were used to calculate the equal-biaxial stress concentration factors K. The results show that the values of K calculated from the Blatz-Ko theory and Nastran are extremely close. Unlike the classical linear elasticity theory, which gives the constant K = 2 for the equal-biaxial stress field, the hyperelastic K values were found to increase with increased stretching and can exceed the value K = 6 at a remote radial extension ratio of 2.35. The present K-values compare fairly well with the K-values obtained by previous works. The effect of the hole-size on K-values was investigated. The values of K start to decrease from a hole radius a = 0.125 in. down to K = 1 (no stress concentration) as a shrinks to a = 0 in. (no hole). Also, the newly introduced stretch and strain magnification factors {K(sub λ),K(sub ε) } are also material- and deformation-dependent, and can increase from linear levels of {1.0, 4.0} and reaching {3.07, 4.61}, respectively at a remote radial extension ratio of 2.35.

stress concentration↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sources of Sulfate Found in Mounds and Lakes at the Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue, Transantarctic

Massive but highly localized Na-sulfate mounds (mirabilite, Na2SO4.10H2O) have been found at the terminal moraine of the Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue (LCIT), Antarctica. (Sigma)34S and (Sigma)18O values of LCIT mirabilite range from +48.8 to +49.3% (CDT), and -16.6 to -17.1% (V-SMOW), respectively, while (Delta)17O average -0.37% (V-SMOW). LCIT mirabilite mounds are isotopically different from other mirabilite mounds found in coastal regions of Antarctica, which have isotope values close to seawater compositions. (Sigma)18O and (Delta)17O values suggest the incorporation of isotopically light glacial water. Data point to initial sulfate formation in an anoxic water body, either as a stratified anoxic deep lake on the surface, a sub-glacial water reservoir, or a sub-glacial lake. Several surface lakes of varying size are also present within this region of the LCIT, and in some cases are adjacent to the mirabilite mounds. O and D isotope compositions of surface lakes confirm they are derived from a mixture of glacial ice and snow that underwent moderate evaporation. (Sigma)18O and (Sigma)D (V-SMOW) values of snow, ice, and lake water range from -64.2 to -29.7%, and -456.0 to -231.7%, respectively. However, the isotope chemistry of these surface lakes is extremely different from the mounds. Dissolved SO4-2 (Sigma)34S and (Sigma)18O values range from +12.0 to +20.0% and -12.8 to -22.2% (the most negative (Sigma)18O of terrestrial sulfate ever reported), respectively, with sulfate (Delta)17O ranging from +0.93 to 2.24%. Ion chromatography data show that lake water is fresh to brackish in origin, with TDS less than 1500 ppm, and sulfate concentration less than 431 ppm. Isotope and chemical data suggest that these lakes are unlikely the source of the mirabilite mounds. We suggest that lake water sulfate is potentially composed of a mixture of atmospheric sulfate and minor components of sulfate of weathering origin, much like the sulfate in the polar plateau soils of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. A simple model explains mirabilite mound formation at the LCIT. Sulfur redox processes could occur sub-glacially as a result of liquid-water-based glacial conditions (Alpine style glacier), most likely formed by pressure melting of overlying ice (Aharon, GCA, 52, 2321-2331). We suggest that the aqueous base of the LCIT contains dissolved SO42- and is anoxic where sulfate reduction to H2S, HS-, or native sulfur takes place. Sulfide is removed by either precipitation as sulfide minerals or by escape of H2S (neither of which have been observed). Mirabilite precipitation is likely the result of evaporation or freezing of sulfate-rich brines as they reach the surface where they manifest themselves as mounds. Pressure from the overlying ice contributing to a pressure-melting scenario that creates the sub-glacial aqueous environment also contributes to the mechanism of upward transport of the sulfate-rich fluids. Further evidence to support this upward transport model comes from the nature of ice motion at the LCIT. Cassidy et al (Meteoritics, 27, 490-525, 1992) pointed out that it is the vertical ice motion in this area that creates the meteorite-stranding surface that could also account for upward transport of sulfate-rich fluids. Alternatively, mirabilite was deposited in a similar condition as present-day coastal Antarctica when the LCIT was wetter and warmer

Socki, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensified Humid Heat Events Under Global Warming

Based on the CMIP5 multi-model simulations, this paper investigates the future changes in extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TWs) and extreme dry-bulb temperatures (Ts) globally under both low and high emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under a warming climate, T and TW exhibit a higher absolute increase in their mean values over the mid-high latitudes while they show higher relative increases in their mean values and variability over tropics. Here, humid and dry heat events which consist of consecutive extreme TWs and Ts show higher occurrences over tropics, governed by the joint increases in mean values and variability of TW and T therein. Humid heat events show intensifications to dry heat events with higher frequency, duration, and intensity, driven by the lower variability of TW than T. In the mid-high latitudes, heat events will start earlier and last longer in warm season under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, motivating the need for global warming mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon flux estimates are sensitive to data source: a comparison of field and lab temperature sensitivity data

Abstract A large literature exists on mechanisms driving soil production of the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 . Although it is common knowledge that measurements obtained through field studies vs. laboratory incubations can diverge because of the vastly different conditions of these environments, few studies have systematically examined these patterns. These data are used to parameterize and benchmark ecosystem- to global-scale models, which are then susceptible to the biases of the source data. Here, we examine how greenhouse gas measurements may be influenced by whether the measurement/incubation was conducted in the field vs. laboratory, focusing on CO 2 and CH 4 measurements. We use Q 10 of greenhouse gas flux (temperature sensitivity) for our analyses because this metric is commonly used in biological and Earth system sciences and is an important parameter in many modeling frameworks. We predicted that laboratory measurements would be less variable, but also less representative of true field conditions. However, there was greater variability in the Q 10 values calculated from lab-based measurements of CO 2 fluxes, because lab experiments explore extremes rarely seen in situ , and reflect the physical and chemical disturbances occurring during sampling, transport, and incubation. Overall, respiration Q 10 values were significantly greater in laboratory incubations (mean = 4.19) than field measurements (mean = 3.05), with strong influences of incubation temperature and climate region/biome. However, this was in part because field measurements typically represent total respiration (Rs), whereas lab incubations typically represent heterotrophic respiration (Rh), making direct comparisons difficult to interpret. Focusing only on Rh-derived Q 10 , these values showed almost identical distributions across laboratory ( n = 1110) and field ( n = 581) experiments, providing strong support for using the former as an experimental proxy for the latter, although we caution that geographic biases in the extant data make this conclusion tentative. Due to a smaller sample size of CH 4 Q 10 data, we were unable to perform a comparable robust analysis, but we expect similar interactions with soil temperature, moisture, and environmental/climatic variables. Our results here suggest the need for more concerted efforts to document and standardize these data, including sample and site metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Association of Presolar Grains with Molecular Cloud Material in IDPs

Anhydrous interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere appear chemically, mineralogically, and texturally primitive in comparison to meteorites. Particles that escape significant atmospheric entry heating have highly unequilibrated mineralogy, are volatile element rich, and, overall, appear to have escaped significant parent body hydrothermal alteration. These IDPs are comprised of the building blocks of the solar system. The strongest evidence that anhydrous IDPs are primitive is that they contain abundant stardust and molecular cloud material. In particular, presolar silicates were first identified in IDPs and are present in abundances (450-5,500 ppm) that are well above that observed in primitive meteorites (less than 170 ppm). The most fragile (cluster) IDPs also commonly exhibit large H and N isotopic anomalies that likely originated by isotopic fractionation during extremely low temperature chemical reactions in a presolar cold molecular cloud. The D/H ratios exceed that of most primitive meteorites, and in rare cases reach values directly observed from simple gas phase molecules in cold molecular clouds. The most extreme D- and N-15-enrichments are usually observed at the finest spatial scales (0.5-2 microns) that can be measured. These observations suggest that D and N-15 hotspots are in fact preserved nuggets of molecular cloud material, and that the materials within them also have presolar origins. The advanced capabilities of the NanoSIMS ion microprobe now enable us to test this hypothesis. Here, we report two recent examples of presolar silicates found to be directly associated with molecular cloud material.

Messenger, S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bootstrapping quantum extremal surfaces. Part I. The area operator

Quantum extremal surfaces are central to the connection between quantum information theory and quantum gravity and they have played a prominent role in the recent progress on the information paradox. We initiate a program to systematically link these surfaces to the microscopic data of the dual conformal field theory, namely the scaling dimensions of local operators and their OPE coefficients. We consider CFT states obtained by acting on the vacuum with single-trace operators, which are dual to one-particle states of the bulk theory. Focusing on AdS 3 /CFT 2 , we compute the CFT entanglement entropy to second order in the large c expansion where quantum extremality becomes important and match it to the expectation value of the bulk area operator. We show that to this order, the Virasoro identity block contributes solely to the area operator.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Giant-planet Influence on the Collective Gravity of a Primordial Scattered Disk

Axisymmetric disks of high-eccentricity, low-mass bodies on near-Keplerian orbits are unstable to an out-of-plane buckling. This “inclination instability” exponentially grows the orbital inclinations, raises perihelion distances, and clusters in the argument of perihelion. Here we examine the instability in a massive primordial scattered disk including the orbit-averaged gravitational influence of the giant planets. We show that differential apsidal precession induced by the giant planets will suppress the inclination instability unless the primordial mass is ≳20 Earth masses. We also show that the instability should produce a “perihelion gap” at semimajor axes of hundreds of astronomical units, as the orbits of the remnant population are more likely to have extremely large perihelion distances (O(100 au)) than intermediate values.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of use of space data in watershed hydrology

The author has identified the following significant results. Ground truth data have been compiled and 256 rainfall runoff events have been used to detemine coefficients for two storm runoff equations that apply to the 20 study watersheds. Two scenes have been processed using CCT data. Data pertinent to each of the study watersheds have been excerpted from the tapes. A computer program and display technique has been developed to retrieve the data from irregular shaped areas and store it in a format that allows future display of only the area desired. Means, standard deviations, and distributions have been determined for extreme dry and extreme wet conditions in the dormant season. Mean digital values show some variation between watersheds when dry, but no significant differences when wet. Standard deviations of digital values diminish drastically under wet dormant conditions. Thus the standard deviations may be a good indicator of influence of moisture. Distributions of seven bit values show that odd numbers are prevalent and irregular distribution may influence some classification schemes now in use.

Blanchard, B.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Non-numeric computation for high eccentricity orbits

Geocentric orbits of large eccentricity (e = 0.9 to 0.95) are significantly perturbed in cislunar space by the sun and moon. The time-history of the height of perigee, subsequent to launch, is particularly critical. The determination of 'launch windows' is mostly concerned with preventing the height of perigee from falling below its low initial value before the mission lifetime has elapsed. Between the extremes of high accuracy digital integration of the equations of motion and of using an approximate, but very fast, stability criteria method, this paper is concerned with the developement of a method of intermediate complexity using non-numeric computation. The computer is used as the theory generator to generalize Lidov's theory using six osculating elements. Symbolic integration is completely automatized and the output is a set of condensed formulae well suited for repeated applications in launch window analysis. Examples of applications are given.

Sridharan, R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

DSS 43 antenna gain analysis for Voyager Uranus encounter: 8.45-GHz radio science data correction

A malfunction of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 64-meter antenna in Australia forced the antenna to operate with a mispositioned subreflector during the Voyager Uranus encounter period (January 24, 1986). Because of changing main reflector shape and quadripod position as a function of elevation angle, the antenna gain and pointing were not as expected, and the 8.45 GHz received signal level changed during the pass. The study described here used the Geometrical Theory of Diffraction (GTD) analysis to determine actual antenna gain and pointing during that period in an attempt to reconstruct the radio science data. It is found that the 1.4 dB of signal variation can be accounted for by antenna geometry changes and pointing error. Suggested modifications to the values measured during the pass are presented. Additionally, an extremely useful tool for the analysis of gravity deformed reflectors was developed for use in future antenna design and analysis projects.

Slobin, S. D.↗