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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale porosity characterization in additively manufactured polymer nanocomposites using micro-computed tomography

Extrusion-based additive manufacturing (AM) of polymer composites exhibits complex thermally driven phenomena that introduce severe discontinuities in the internal structure across length scales, especially voids or porosity. This study utilizes a high-throughput porosity characterization technique to analyze large datasets from numerous micro-computed tomography (mu CT) scans to capture the influence of AM print parameters on the size, shape, and location of porosity across multiple print layers (up to a few cm) on fused granular fabrication (FGF) printers. The materials investigated include nanocomposite formulations based on commercially relevant nylon-12 and polyether ketone ketone (PEKK) materials comprising nano- or micro- sized fillers. The estimated global porosity follows an inverse linear correlation against the bulk density of the printed samples. Increasing the extrusion multiplier (EM) and the nozzle temperature while decreasing the print speeds reduces the global porosity. Outlier analyses (local porosity morphology) show that faster print speeds and higher extrusion rates result in long, slender inter-layer voids, while lower nozzle temperatures lead to large, symmetrical, inter-bead voids (at the bead junction). Lack of active chamber temperature increases inter-layer and intra-bead voids with a two-fold increase in global porosity. Overall, the micro filler-reinforced composites exhibit higher global porosity than nanofiller-reinforced composites, which is attributed to the increased mismatch in the thermal expansion coefficient between the filler and the polymers used in the study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Science Validation for Dark Energy Research with Optical Imaging Surveys

The Universe has been expanding at an accelerating rate over the past several billion years, as though an unknown form of dark energy permeates all of space. The ultimate scientific goal of the proposed research is to distinguish between different physical mechanisms that could account for this observed accelerated expansion, for example, the zero-point energy of the vacuum, a dynamical form of energy that varies in time and/or space, or a modification to our theory of gravity. Wide- field optical imaging surveys of the night sky can test these competing models by measuring both the cosmic expansion history and the growth of large-scale structure. To this end, the Dark Energy Survey (DES) has cataloged several hundred million galaxies and thousands of supernovae. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), will enlarge the census to billions of galaxies and hundreds of thousands of supernovae. A critical question for these dark energy experiments is whether systematic uncertainties can continue to be controlled at a level to keep pace with the statistical precision offered by such enormous datasets. The immediate research objectives of this project were (1) to prepare and validate input datasets that are the foundation of cosmological analyses with DES, and (2) to prepare for value-added characterization of Rubin Observatory commissioning data to inform early operations and accelerate the realization of dark energy science from LSST data products. For DES, we assembled and curated cosmology-ready data releases that include value-added components such as enhanced photometric and astrometric calibrations, alternative source extraction algorithms, maps of the survey coverage and survey conditions, object classifications, object quality selections, galaxy shapes, and photometric redshifts. We used the galaxy clustering technique to validate the photometric redshift distributions of various galaxy samples to be used as lenses in combined studies of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing. The galaxy clustering redshift analysis was enhanced by use of a larger sample of reference galaxies from the eBOSS spectroscopic survey that extends to higher redshifts. For LSST, we prepared for science validation studies of commissioning data aimed at dark energy science capability that extend beyond the normative system-level tests to be done by the Rubin Observatory Construction Project. We identified a set of proposed survey strategies and candidate target fields that could be observed during the commissioning period to enhance science validation activities related to studies of dark energy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fluorescent toxins as ion channel activity sensors.

Voltage gated ion channels (VGICs) shape the electrical character of cells by undergoing structural changes in response to membrane depolarization. High-resolution techniques have provided a wealth of data on individual VGIC structures, but the conformational changes of endogenous channels in live cell membranes have remained unexplored. Here, we describe methods for imaging structural changes of voltage-gated K + channels in living cells, using peptidyl toxins labeled with fluorophores that report specific protein conformations. These Endogenous Voltage-sensor Activity Probes (EVAPs) enable study of both VGIC allostery and function in the context of endogenous live-cell membranes under different physiological states. In this chapter, we describe methods for the synthesis, imaging, and analysis of dynamic EVAPs, which can report K + channel activity in complex tissue preparations via 2-photon excitation microscopy, and environment-sensitive EVAPs, which report voltage-dependent conformational changes at the VGIC-toxin interface. The methods here present the utility of current EVAPs and lay the groundwork for the development of other probes that act by similar mechanisms. EVAPs can be correlated with electrophysiology, offering insight into the molecular details of endogenous channel function and allostery in live cells. This enables investigation of conformational changes of channels in their native, functional states, putting structures and models into a context of live-cell membranes. The expansive array of state-dependent ligands and optical probes should enable probes more generally for investigating the molecular motions of endogenous proteins.

Stewart, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring physics of ferroelectric domain walls via Bayesian analysis of atomically resolved STEM data

The physics of ferroelectric domain walls is explored using the Bayesian inference analysis of atomically resolved STEM data. We demonstrate that domain wall profile shapes are ultimately sensitive to the nature of the order parameter in the material, including the functional form of Ginzburg-Landau-Devonshire expansion, and numerical value of the corresponding parameters. The preexisting materials knowledge naturally folds in the Bayesian framework in the form of prior distributions, with the different order parameters forming competing (or hierarchical) models. Here, we explore the physics of the ferroelectric domain walls in BiFeO 3 using this method, and derive the posterior estimates of relevant parameters. More generally, this inference approach both allows learning materials physics from experimental data with associated uncertainty quantification, and establishing guidelines for instrumental development answering questions on what resolution and information limits are necessary for reliable observation of specific physical mechanisms of interest.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

UV massive resonance from IR double copy consistency

From the perspective of effective field theory (EFT), Wilson coefficients of the low energy theory are determined by integrating out modes of the full ultraviolet (UV) theory. The spectrum can be in principle resummed if one has access to all available infrared (IR) coefficients at low energies. In this work we show that there exists a general class of consistent massive resonance double-copy (CMRDC) models where UV massive residues are reconstructed through double-copy consistency conditions between the IR Wilson coefficients of the full EFT expansion. Through a color-dual bootstrap, we find surprisingly that double-copy consistency alone introduces the kinematic factors of CMRDC models that soften high energy behavior by exponentiating color-dual contacts. This bootstrap suggests that our massive resonance paradigm is an inevitable consequence of the duality between color and kinematics, thereby providing a path towards emergent UV structure directly from the IR. We then demonstrate how CMRDC models can capture a spectrum of massive modes compatible with general multiplicity, and use Padé extrapolation to solve the inverse problem of identifying massive UV resonance from a small number of IR Wilson coefficients. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature-dependent elastic constants of thorium dioxide probed using time-domain Brillouin scattering

Herein we report the adiabatic elastic constants of single-crystal thorium dioxide over a temperature range of 77–350 K. Time-domain Brillouin scattering, an all-optical, non-contact picosecond ultrasonic technique, is used to generate and detect coherent acoustic phonons that propagate in the bulk perpendicular to the surface of the crystal. These coherent acoustic lattice vibrations have been monitored in two hydrothermally grown single-crystal thorium dioxide samples along the (100) and (311) crystallographic directions. The three independent elastic constants of the cubic crystal (C 11 , C 12 , and C 44 ) are determined from the measured bulk acoustic velocities. The longitudinal wave along the (100) orientation provided a direct measurement of C 11 . Measurement of C 44 and C 12 was achieved by enhancing the intensity of quasi-shear mode in a (311) oriented crystal by adjusting the polarization angle relative to the crystal axes. We find the magnitude of softening of the three elastic constants to be ~2.5% over the measured temperature range. Good agreement is found between the measured elastic constants with previously reported values at room temperature, and between the measured temperature-dependent bulk modulus with calculated values. We find that semi-empirical models capturing lattice anharmonicity adequately reproduce the observed trend. We also determine the acoustic Grüneisen anharmonicity parameter from the experimentally derived temperature-dependent bulk modulus and previously reported temperature-dependent values of volumetric thermal expansion coefficient and heat capacity. This work presents measurements of the temperature-dependent elasticity in single-crystal thorium dioxide at cryogenic temperature and provides a basis for testing ab initio theoretical models and evaluating the impact of anharmonicity on thermophysical properties.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectral function for 4 He using the Chebyshev expansion in coupled-cluster theory

Here, we compute spectral function for 4 He by combining coupled-cluster theory with an expansion of integral transforms into Chebyshev polynomials. Our method allows us to estimate the uncertainty of spectral reconstruction. The properties of the Chebyshev polynomials make the procedure numerically stable and considerably lower in memory usage than the typically employed Lanczos algorithm. We benchmark our predictions with other calculations in the literature and with electron-scattering data in the quasi-elastic peak. The spectral function formalism allows one to extend ab initio lepton-nucleus cross sections into the relativistic regime. This makes it a promising tool for modeling this process at higher-energy transfers. The results we present open the door for studies of heavier nuclei, important for the neutrino oscillation programs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Piezomagnetic switching and complex phase equilibria in uranium dioxide

Abstract Actinide materials exhibit strong spin–lattice coupling and electronic correlations, and are predicted to host new emerging ground states. One example is piezomagnetism and magneto-elastic memory effect in the antiferromagnetic Mott-Hubbard insulator uranium dioxide, though its microscopic nature is under debate. Here, we report X-ray diffraction studies of oriented uranium dioxide crystals under strong pulsed magnetic fields. In the antiferromagnetic state a [888] Bragg diffraction peak follows the bulk magnetostriction that expands under magnetic fields. Upon reversal of the field the expansion turns to contraction, before the [888] peak follows the switching effect and piezomagnetic ‘butterfly’ behaviour, characteristic of two structures connected by time reversal symmetry. An unexpected splitting of the [888] peak is observed, indicating the simultaneous presence of time-reversed domains of the 3-k structure and a complex magnetic-field-induced evolution of the microstructure. These findings open the door for a microscopic understanding of the piezomagnetism and magnetic coupling across strong magneto-elastic interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing biogeographic survey gaps in bacterial diversity knowledge: A global synthesis of freshwaters

Freshwaters account for 0.8% of Earth's surface area, yet support >10% of known plant and animal species making them disproportionately biodiverse. Modern molecular techniques have begun to reveal microbial diversity, but application of these approaches to address global microbial biogeography is relatively unknown in freshwaters. Our aim was to identify gaps in microbial data coverage along climatic and landscape disturbance gradients and among terrestrial biomes and hydrographic regions for all freshwater ecosystems and three freshwater habitat types: lakes and reservoirs (lentic); streams and rivers (lotic); and wetlands. We reviewed literature on microbial diversity in freshwaters surveyed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing which identify microbial taxa. We georeferenced survey locations and used a geographic information system to identify and map gaps in survey coverage using open-source data for climate, landscape disturbance, terrestrial biomes, and freshwater ecoregions. In our study, we compiled 3,425 georeferenced survey locations reported from 963 studies. Streams were surveyed most frequently (60.8% of survey locations), followed by lakes (33.5%) and wetlands (5.6%). Surveys were concentrated in North America, central and western Europe, and Southeast Asia; 35% of freshwater ecoregions were surveyed at least once across freshwater habitat types, whereas 23%, 23%, and 12% were surveyed at least once for lentic, lotic, and wetland habitat types, respectively. The climatic gap analysis indicated coverage is high for temperate regions but lacking in the tropics and Arctic, particularly for wetland ecosystems. Our assessment revealed high climatic coverage of freshwater microbial diversity knowledge, but expansive ecoregional gaps attributable to biased sampling near research institutions in North America, western Europe, and China. Future surveys should target ecoregions in Africa, South America, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. An essential next step will be to curate and disseminate sequencing efforts to facilitate the study of processes driving global diversity patterns.

16S rRNA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phasor-Measurement-Unit-Based Data Analytics Using Digital Twin and PhasorAnalytics Software

A major objective of this project was to apply GE’s commercial machine learning and data analytics toolsets to large-scale, real-world, anonymized Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) datasets in order to extract signatures, correlated and/or causal factors, and precursor patterns associated with significant power system phenomena. The project had a particular emphasis on extraction of insights relevant to asset health monitoring, real-time load modeling and cybersecurity monitoring. Additionally, the team was directed to undertake a comprehensive data quality analysis for the provided datasets and encouraged to estimate the ‘machine-learning readiness’ of the datasets by documenting any major obstacles to the application of commercial machine learning algorithms. To accomplish the aforementioned objectives, the project team’s work centered around the identification of key event signatures and application of the identified event signatures for event detection and event classification. The industry-validated, semi-supervised machine learning strategy employed for event signature identification involved several major tasks, including data-preprocessing, generation of an overabundance of features, normal data identification, normality modeling, and event signature identification through a methodical, quantitative ranking of features in order of relevance to each studied event type. Throughout the project, data quality issues and mitigation techniques were investigated. In this report, insights are provided regarding the readiness of the provided synchrophasor datasets for application of machine learning and data analytics. The methodologies employed for this technical strategy are summarized in this report. With regards to data preprocessing and feature generation, the provided Training and Test Datasets were ingested into GE’s big data environment. Subsequently, the team applied bad data cleansing and data imputation scripts, event detection scripts, and application programming interfaces (APIs) to the datasets for convenient data access. The project team completed development and validation of dozens of physics-based, statistics-based and transformation-based feature functions used for the extraction of over 60 synchrophasor features. Using a new parallel feature generation technology developed on this project, over 60 features have been rapidly generated for the full two years’ worth of Training and Test Dataset data associated with both the Eastern and Western interconnects. Even accommodating for temporal down-sampling inherent to the feature extraction procedure, this parallel feature generation activity resulted in a massive feature set with a storage requirement approximately equal to that of the raw training dataset itself. With regards to normal data identification and normality modeling, a normality model was built using the feature data extracted from the Training Dataset and iteratively refined subsequent to incremental adjustments and expansions of the Training Dataset feature data. With respect to event characterization and signature identification, an event signature identification pipeline was developed and used in conjunction with the normality model to identify over 15 event signatures for key event categories within the Training Dataset. The identified event signatures were used to characterize hundreds of key events in terms of relative severity, duration, and location of the event. An investigation was undertaken to identify correlated and causal factors involved in transformer events. A separate investigation into temporal trends in ring-down analysis results was undertaken to determine possible associations between system dynamics and various other factors such as loading, season or year. To validate the identified event signatures, additional work was undertaken to develop signature-based anomaly detection and classification tools suitable for convenient application to the synchrophasor datasets. The anomaly detection and classification tools, suitable for online application, were then applied to the entirety of the Eastern Interconnect Training and Test Datasets. Performance of the event detection and classification tools was evaluated upon receipt of the Test Dataset event logs (i.e., the labels for events contained in the Test Dataset), and promising results were obtained despite several challenges (documented herein) associated with application of supervised or semi-supervised machine learning methods to large-scale, anonymized datasets. Finally, the detection and classification tools were used to detect, classify, and characterize thousands of new events not included in the original event logs provided by the DOE within both the Training and Test Datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Attractive Effect of a Strong Electronic Repulsion: The Physics of Vertex Divergences

While the breakdown of the perturbation expansion for the many-electron problem has several formal consequences, here we unveil its physical effect: flipping the sign of the effective electronic interaction in specific scattering channels. By decomposing local and uniform susceptibilities of the Hubbard model via their spectral representations, we prove how entering the nonperturbative regime causes an enhancement of the charge response, ultimately responsible for the phase-separation instabilities close to the Mott metal-insulator transition. Furthermore, our analysis opens a new route for understanding phase transitions in the nonperturbative regime and clarifies why attractive effects emerging from a strong repulsion can induce phase separations but not s-wave pairing or charge-density wave instabilities.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of chromium coatings on Zircaloy cladding deformation behavior under reactivity-initiated accident-like mechanical loading conditions

A reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) occurs when a control rod ejection or control blade drop causes an increase in the fission rate. The injection of energy results in an increase in fuel temperature which in turn causes rapid thermal expansion of the fuel pellet. This thermal expansion may result in pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) in which the fuel imparts a mechanical strain to the cladding. PCMI may cause the cladding to fail, and thus, the mechanical response of cladding due to PCMI must be investigated when characterizing new cladding materials. Chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 is a near-term accident-tolerant fuel cladding that exhibits improved high-temperature oxidation resistance. Modified burst testing was utilized to experimentally simulate the effects of PCMI on both uncoated and chromium-coated Zircaloy cladding samples at hot zero power conditions. Samples were coated using either cold spraying or physical vapor deposition to understand the differences in behavior that the coating application method may cause. Digital image correlation was used to analyze images of the deforming specimens to extract the in-situ strain behavior of the cladding. The uncoated specimens burst at hoop strains ranging from 8.8 % to 17.2 %. The cold-spray chromium-coated Zircaloy specimens burst at hoop strains of 7.0 % to 11.0 %. The physical vapor deposition coated tubes burst at hoop strains of 9.1 % to 11.5 %. These results indicate that the chromium coating causes a loss in the ductility of the cladding. Furthermore, the higher burst hoop strains of the physical vapor deposition-coated samples relative to the cold-spray samples indicate that the cold-spraying technique causes more of a loss in ductility than physical vapor deposition. All samples burst at higher hoop strains than those expected to occur in an RIA for fresh cladding.

Accident-tolerant fuel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Density Measurement of NaCl-MgCl 2 -PuCl 3 and NaCl-UCl 3 -PuCl 3 Molten Salt Systems by Neutron Radiographic Dilatometry

A novel neutron radiographic technique was developed and implemented to measure the change in volume as a function of temperature of select plutonium-containing liquid chloride mixtures from melt to 1250 K. These measurements were performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory by members of the molten salt research group under support from Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) voucher NE-21-25117: “Density Measurements of Plutonium Bearing Salts via Neutron Beam Dilatometry”. This technical report contains a description of the experimental method and a summary of the results. Initial characterization of the {NaCl, MgCl 2 , UCl 3 , PuCl 3 } salts used in this experiment includes a combination of x-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry, gamma ray spectroscopy, and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Four samples of NaCl + MgCl 2 + x mol% PuCl 3 and four samples of NaCl + UCl 3 + x mol% PuCl 3 were prepared at the Plutonium Facility, shipped to the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE), and radiographed with the density via neutron radiography (DvNR) apparatus. Density data in the form of meniscus heights were recorded as a function of temperature. The results show a linear dependence of density with temperature and a third order polynomial dependence of density with composition as a function of PuCl 3 addition in the corresponding halide salt mixture. Additions of PuCl 3 result in a significant increase in density of the salt mixture and a slight reduction in the coefficient of volumetric expansion. These results represent a first measurement of the density of plutonium chloride salt mixtures and, in combination with additional measurements, may lead to a generalized description of the density of such salt systems for arbitrary compositions and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low Cost (CAPEX and variable): Tool design for cell and module fabrication with thin, free-standing silicon wafers

This project aimed to develop technologies that can potentially enable free-standing thin (<80 μm) wafer in today’s manufacturing lines with high production yield, and thereby reduce capex barriers of silicon photovoltaics cells and modules. One of the major benefits is that thin wafer dramatically reduces the amount of polysilicon required. As a result, it can lead to reduction in the capital expenditures associated with polysilicon refining and wafer fabrication, which together are more than half of the total capital expenditure to manufacture Si PV module. We focused our efforts on developing the tools needed to enable high yield fabrication of wafer, cell, and module with thin silicon wafers. However, as the wafer thickness reduces, the major challenge is that wafer breakage increases significantly. Three technological areas were explored in this project to improve the production yield of the silicon wafer, namely detection of edge cracks via dark-field near-infrared (NIR) scattering; (2) wafer handling using controlled temperature profiles; (3) manufacturable low-stress cell interconnection for multiwire. First, the formation of wafer cracks in submillimeter length is one of the reasons that causes wafer breakages. Crack detection tools are needed to enable us to locate and track the wafer crack during manufacturing, so that we can improve the process to reduce initialization. The state-of-the-art crack detection technique cannot fulfill the need for measuring submillimeter edge cracks detrimental for thin wafers. The prototype developed in this project demonstrates the scanning of microcracks near wafer edges. With a semi-automatic laboratory setup, the submillimeter cracks were reliably detected near the edges in multi-Si wafers. The smallest detectable crack is 200 µm in length in slow scans; and submillimeter cracks are detected in high-throughput scans at the scan speed of >0.5 m/s, which is compatible with the inline detection of a manufacturing line at least 1 sec/wafer. This detection limit is a significant advancement in comparison to the benchmarked industrial tool. Second, wafer handling with the well-controlled temperature profile was thought to be the solution to reduce crack initiation and propagation during the manufacturing. However, without crack detection being widely adopted in production line, we did not find a strong industrial pull toward this technology. We did an initial literature survey and then diverted our efforts to the other tasks. Third, the innovation on low-stress multi-wire interconnection tackles a fundamental problem in the standard interconnection scheme. The standard over-under “zig-zag” interconnection induces a significant amount of stress into the soldering point on the cell whenever PV module is under stress, e.g., thermal cycling, transportation, and installation. Therefore, the interconnection process was re-designed in this project to allow for significant movement between adjacent solar cells, e.g., due to thermal expansion, without building up stresses on the solar cells or solder joints. The new interconnection method with the cross-connect wire also simplifies the tabbing and stringing process by replacing the standard over-under method with an off-cell interconnect from top to bottom. A manual tabbing and stringing tool for this new process was prototyped in the lab to demonstrate the fabrication of this new interconnection design. During the test with brass sheets as our “testing cells”, it was found that the mechanical cycling test only broke the interconnection after more than 50,000 cycles, which is equivalent to more than 130 years of the day-and-night thermal cycles. Lastly, throughout the project, we continuously analyzed the PV market with techno-economic analysis to identify the opportunity for thin Si adoption. Even though the drastic cost reduction has already happened in the past five years, our analysis results indicated that we can still save quite significantly in both manufacturing cost and factory capex, Particularly, in order to grow the PV manufacturing capacity to multi-terawatt level, reducing the thickness of silicon wafer is one of the most effective ways to quickly reduce factory capex, and sustain the high growth rate. The technologies developed in this project are readily available to provide some assistances in tackling the production yield problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A General Framework for Progressive Data Compression and Retrieval

In scientific simulations, observations, and experiments, the transfer of data to and from disk and across networks has become a major bottleneck for data analysis and visualization. Compression techniques have been employed to tackle this challenge, but traditional lossy methods often demand conservative error tolerances to meet the numerical accuracy requirements of both anticipated and unknown data analysis tasks. Progressive data compression and retrieval has emerged as a promising solution, where each analysis task dictates its own accuracy needs. However, few analysis algorithms inherently support progressive data processing, and adapting compression techniques, file formats, client/server frameworks, and APIs to support progressivity can be challenging. Here, this paper presents a framework that enables progressive-precision data queries for any data compressor or numerical representation. Our strategy hinges on a multi-component representation that successively reduces the error between the original and compressed field, allowing each field in the progressive sequence to be expressed as a partial sum of components. We have implemented this approach with four established scientific data compressors and assessed its effectiveness using real-world data sets from the SDRBench collection. The results show that our framework competes in accuracy with the standalone compressors it is based upon. Additionally, (de)compression time is proportional to the number of components requested by the user. Finally, our framework allows for fully lossless compression using lossy compressors when a sufficient number of components are employed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗