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Wildfire Risk Support via Satellite-Derived Vegetation Health and Land Surface Model Soil Moisture

Land Surface Model (LSM) and evaporative demand products provide advanced lead time to wildfire conditions that complement traditional fire indices and represent short-term changes that add context to overall, long-term drought conditions. Established fire indices typically use weather indicators (i.e., precipitation, temperature) and estimated dead fuel moisture to indirectly obtain land surface and sub-surface characterization. The convergence of LSM shallow and deep-layer soil moisture output and satellite-derived vegetation health combine to provide a tool for stakeholders to examine trends in the state of land surface conditions that can help assess wildfire threat. Satellite remote sensing data can constrain near-real time vegetation characteristics within the LSM and/or provide a derived stress index in order to help characterize the wildfire risk. In addition, a percentile product of soil moisture is derived from a comparison of current LSM conditions to the historical record of the LSM in order to put the current conditions in perspective relative to the season and geographic region. The 2015 season as well as the 2018 Camp Fire Complex in California were examined in terms of the changes in LSM soil moisture and vegetation states. Satellite vegetation health consistently showed decreases a month prior to wildfire initiation. Additionally, maximum changes in total column soil moisture corresponded with the greatest concentration of fire locations. While soil moisture deficits occurred in the shallow layers across northern California in 2018, significant deficits at all sub-surface levels were seen ahead of the Camp Fire event. This presentation will demonstrate the complementary value of LSM output and satellite measured vegetation health to diagnose short-term deficits in sub-surface soil moisture and the rapid decline in vegetation health which precedes large wildfire events.

Wildfire↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic and phenotypic characterization of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Reading isolates involved in a turkey-associated foodborne outbreak

Salmonella is a global bacterial foodborne pathogen associated with a variety of contaminated food products. Poultry products are a common source of Salmonella -associated foodborne illness, and an estimated 7% of human illnesses in the United States are attributed to turkey products. From November 2017 to March 2019, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a turkey-associated outbreak of multidrug-resistant (MDR; resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes) Salmonella enterica serovar Reading ( S . Reading) linked to 358 human infections in 42 US states and Canada. Since S . Reading was seldom linked to human illness prior to this outbreak, the current study compared genomic sequences of S . Reading isolates prior to the outbreak (pre-outbreak) to isolates identified during the outbreak period, focusing on genes that were different between the two groups but common within a group. Following whole-genome sequence analysis of five pre-outbreak and five outbreak-associated turkey/turkey product isolates of S . Reading, 37 genes located within two distinct chromosomal regions were identified only in the pre-outbreak isolates: (1) an ~5 kb region containing four protein-coding genes including uidA which encodes beta-glucuronidase, pgdA encoding peptidoglycan deacetylase, and two hypothetical proteins and (2) an ~28 kb region comprised of 32 phage-like genes and the xerC gene, which encodes tyrosine recombinase (frequently associated with phage genes). The five outbreak isolates also had a deletional event within the cirA gene, introducing a translational frame shift and premature stop codon. The cirA gene encodes a protein with dual receptor functions: a siderophore receptor for transport of dihydroxybenzoylserine as well as a colicin Ia/b receptor. Significant differences for the identified genetic variations were also detected in 75 S . Reading human isolates. Of the 41 S . Reading isolates collected before or in 2017, 81 and 90% of the isolates contained the uidA and pgdA genes, respectively, but only 24% of the isolates collected after 2017 harbored the uidA and pgdA genes. The truncation event within the cirA gene was also significantly higher in isolates collected after 2017 (74%) compared to before or in 2017 (5%). Phenotypic analysis of the S . Reading isolates for colicin and cefiderocol sensitivities (CirA) and β-methyl-D-glucuronic acid utilization (UidA and accessory proteins) supported the genomic data. Overall, a similar genome reduction pattern was generally observed in both the turkey and human isolates of S . Reading during the outbreak period, and the genetic differences were present in genes that could potentially promote pathogen dissemination due to variation in Salmonella colonization, fitness, and/or virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Radiative Losses in the Chromosphere During A C-Class Flare

Context. Solar flares release an enormous amount of energy (~10(exp 32) erg) into the corona. A substantial fraction of this energy is transported to the lower atmosphere, which results in chromospheric heating. The mechanisms that transport energy to the lower solar atmosphere during a flare are still not fully understood. Aims. We aim to estimate the temporal evolution of the radiative losses in the chromosphere at the footpoints of a C-class flare, in order to set observational constraints on the electron beam parameters of a RADYN flare simulation. Methods. We estimated the radiative losses from hydrogen, and singly ionized Ca and Mg using semiempirical model atmospheres, which were inferred from a multiline inversion of observed Stokes profiles obtained with the CRISP and CHROMIS instruments on the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope. The radiative losses were computed taking into account the effect of partial redistribution and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium. To estimate the integrated radiative losses in the chromosphere, the net cooling rates were integrated between the temperature minimum and the height where the temperature reaches 10 kK. We also compared our time series of radiative losses with those from the RADYN flare simulations. Results. We obtained a high spatial-resolution map of integrated radiative losses around the flare peak time. The stratification of the net cooling rate suggests that the Ca IR triplet lines are responsible for most of the radiative losses in the flaring atmosphere. During the flare peak time, the contribution from Ca II H and K and Mgii h and k lines are strong and comparable to the Ca IR triplet (~32kW m(exp -2)). Since our flare is a relatively weak event, the chromosphere is not heated above 11 kK, which in turn yields a subdued Lyα contribution (~7kW m(exp -2)) in the selected limits of the chromosphere. The temporal evolution of total integrated radiative losses exhibits sharply rising losses (0.4kW m(exp -2) (s(exp -1)) and a relatively slow decay (0.23kW m(exp -2) s(exp -1)). The maximum value of total radiative losses is reached around the flare peak time and can go up to 175kWm􀀀2 for a single pixel located at footpoint. After a small parameter study, we find the best model-data consistency in terms of the amplitude of radiative losses and the overall atmospheric structure with a RADYN flare simulation in the injected energy flux of 5 × 10(exp 10) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2).

Chromosphere↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optical follow-up observation for GW event S190510g using Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam

Abstract A gravitational wave event, S190510g, which was classified as a binary-neutron-star coalescence at the time of preliminary alert, was detected by LIGO/Virgo collaboration on 2019 May 10. At 1.7 hours after the issue of its preliminary alert, we started a target-of-opportunity imaging observation in the Y band to search for its optical counterpart using the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) on the Subaru Telescope. The observation covers a 118.8 deg2 sky area corresponding to $11.6\%$ confidence in the localization skymap released in the preliminary alert and $1.2\%$ in the updated skymap. We divided the observed area into two fields based on the availability of HSC reference images. For the fields with the HSC reference images, we applied an image subtraction technique; for the fields without the HSC reference images, we sought individual HSC images by matching a catalog of observed objects with the PS1 catalog. The search depth is 22.28 mag in the former method and the limit of search depth is 21.3 mag in the latter method. Subsequently, we performed visual inspection and obtained 83 candidates using the former method and 50 candidates using the latter method. Since we only have the one-day photometric data, we evaluated the probability of candidates being located inside the 3D skymap by estimating their distances with photometry of associated extended objects. We found three candidates are likely located inside the 3D skymap and concluded they could be a counterpart of S190510g, while most of the 133 candidates were likely to be supernovae because the number density of candidates was consistent with the expected number of supernova detections. By comparing our observational depth with a light-curve model of such a kilonova reproducing AT2017gfo, we show that early deep observations with the Subaru/HSC can capture the rising phase of the blue component of a kilonova at the estimated distance of S190510g (∼230 Mpc).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Microseismicity and Reactivated Fault Size to Assess the Potential for Felt Events by CO 2 Injection in the Illinois Basin

The results of monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection at the Illinois Basin—Decatur Project (IBDP) and the companion Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration Sources (IL-ICCS) project—have shown that reservoir response to fluid pressure changes can vary significantly at different injection locations within the same reservoir. Predrill reservoir characterization is important to identify potentially seismogenic faults. However, interpretations of newly reprocessed 3D seismic reflection data illustrate the challenges related to their identification in a region dominated by faulting with small vertical offsets. Faults interpreted in the 3D seismic volume range from ~300 to 1200 m wide and are in the same size range as faults that could have been the source of historical events up to Mw 2.7 in central Illinois. The array of monitoring sensors that was installed for the IBDP continues to collect data, as injection operates in IL-ICCS, the second injection well. CO 2 injection rates for the IL-ICCS well are on average 1.7 times the rates injected in the IBDP well, but a significantly reduced rate of induced seismicity is observed. This article presents results of passive seismic monitoring for the duration of the project to date, integrating active and passive seismic data to develop a new interpretation of the subsurface structure at the Decatur site that explicitly identifies pathways for fluid flow into the basement leading to induced seismicity, and provides a geological explanation for the sharp reduction of induced seismicity during injection at higher rates into the second well. The use of seismic moment to estimate the length of seismogenic slip planes in the local subsurface suggests that faults large enough to produce felt seismicity are unlikely to be present at or near the Decatur site.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS2017

OGLE-2013-BLG-1761Lb: A Massive Planet around an MK Dwarf

We report the discovery and the analysis of the planetary microlensing event, OGLE-2013-BLG-1761. There are some degenerate solutions in this event because the planetary anomaly is only sparsely sampled. However, the detailed light curve analysis ruled out all stellar binary models and shows the lens to be a planetary system. There is the so-called close wide degeneracy in the solutions with the planet host mass ratio of q approx.(7.0+/-2.0) x 10(exp -3) and q approx.(8.1+/-2.6) x 10(exp -3) with the projected separation in Einstein radius units of s = 0.95 (close) and s = 1.18(wide), respectively. The microlens parallax effect is not detected, but the finite source effect is detected. Our Bayesian analysis indicates that the lens system is located -D(sub L) = 6.9(+ 1.0 -1.2)kpc away from us and the host star is an M/K dwarf with amass of M(sub L) = 0.33(+ 0.32- 1.9)Stellar Mass orbited by a super-Jupiter mass planet with a mass of m(sub p) = 2.7(+ 2.5 - 1.5) M(sub Jup) at the projected separation of a(sub l) = 1.8(+ 0.5 -0.5)au. The preference of the large lens distance in the Bayesian analysis is due to the relatively large observed source star radius. The distance and other physical parameters may be constrained by the future high-resolution imaging by large ground telescopes or HST. If the estimated lens distance is correct, then this planet provides another sample for testing the claimed deficit of planets in the Galactic bulge.

Hirao, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Altimetry data and the elastic stress tensor of subduction zones

The maximum shear stress (mss) field due to mass anomalies is estimated in the Apennines, the Kermadec-Tonga Trench, and the Rio Grande Rift areas and the results for each area are compared to observed seismicity. A maximum mss of 420 bar was calculated in the Kermadec-Tonga Trench region at a depth of 28 km. Two additional zones with more than 300 bar mss were also observed in the Kermadec-Tonga Trench study. Comparison of the calculated mss field with the observed seismicity in the Kermadec-Tonga showed two zones of well correlated activity. The Rio Grande Rift results showed a maximum mss of 700 bar occurring east of the rift and at a depth of 6 km. Recorded seismicity in the region was primarily constrained to a depth of approximately 5 km, correlating well to the results of the stress calculations. Two areas of high mss are found in the Apennine region: 120 bar at a depth of 55 km, and 149 bar at the surface. Seismic events observed in the Apennine area compare favorably with the mss field calculated, exhibiting two zones of activity. The case of loading by seamounts and icecaps are also simulated. Results for this study show that the mss reaches a maximum of about 1/3 that of the applied surface stress for both cases, and is located at a depth related to the diameter of the surface mass anomaly.

Caputo, Michele↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Thickness and Stratigraphy of Ejecta Materials at the Chang’e-4 Landing Site

The landing site of China’s Chang’e-4 (CE-4) probe is located on the mare basalts on the floor of the Von Kármán crater on the lunar far side. The Von Kármán crater is inside the ancient and highly cratered South Pole–Aitken basin, which has experienced complex emplacement sequences of both near and distant ejecta materials. These issues complicated the interpretation of the CE-4 surface in situ measurements of the visible and near-infrared spectrometer and the lunar penetrating radar (LPR) onboard Yutu-2 rover. To evaluate the sources and amounts of all principle foreign materials at the CE-4 landing site, we thoroughly examine the ejecta delivered by crater-forming events that occurred later than the formation of the mare basalts at the CE-4 landing site. We found a total of 16 craters that may have delivered ejecta thicker than 10 cm level superposed on the mare basalts at the CE-4 landing site. Crater Finsen, Von Kármán L, Von Kármán L′, and Maksutov are the top four major foreign material sources, and each of them contributed ejecta thicker than 1 m. Our surveys confirm that the ejecta from Finsen crater are the most dominant foreign materials in the uppermost few meters at the CE-4 landing site and the total impact ejecta deposited upon the mare basalts at the landing site is estimated to be thinner than 30 m. We found that the estimations from Pike’s model are the most consistent with the Yutu-2 LPR observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction: Neuromorphic Materials

The explosive growth in data collection and the need to process it efficiently, as well as the desire to automate increasingly complex tasks in transportation, medical care, manufacturing, security and many other fields have motivated a growing interest in neuromorphic computing. Unlike the binary, transistorbased ON/OFF logic gates and separate logic and memory functionalities employed in digital computing, neuromorphic computing is inspired by animal brains that use interconnected synapses and neurons to perform processing, storage and transmission of information at the same location, while only consuming ~20 W or less of power. Motivated by the brain’s efficiency, adaptability, self-learning and resiliency qualities, neuromorphic computing can be broadly defined as an approach to processing and storing information using hardware and algorithms inspired by models of biological neural systems. Present research in neuromorphic computing encompasses approaches that vary significantly in their degree of neuro-inspiration, from systems that only incorporate features such as asynchronous, event-driven operation or use crossbar arrays of non-volatile memory (NVM) elements to accelerate deep neural networks (DNNs), to designs that embrace the extreme parallelism, sparsity, reconfigurability, adaptability, complexity and stochasticity observed in nervous systems. The term ‘neuromorphic’ computing is often credited to Carver Mead, who in the 1980s investigated Si-based analog electronics to replicate functions of the animal retina. Earlier important advances in this field include the work of Frank Rosenblatt, who proposed the concept of the perceptron, Bernard Widrow, who used this concept to build one of the first analog neural networks, the Adaline and many other researchers (see ref. 6 for an historical perspective on neuromorphic computing). With the recent increase in the use of artificial intelligence and large language models, and rising concerns over the associated energy costs, interest in neuromorphic hardware has expanded rapidly. According to some estimates, driven largely by the drastic growth in the training use of artificial intelligence (AI) models using the current computing architectures, the energy cost of computing is projected to reach the energy supply worldwide by 2045. Furthermore, while this is not a realistic outcome, it means that, if more efficient computing technologies are not developed -- soon -- the world will soon become one where demand for energy and market constraints limit the continued increase of societal access to AI and cloud services from data centers. Data centers used for training and use of these models consume hundreds of terawatt hours of electricity, already past 4% of the US electricity demand.

Circuits↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implications of Projected Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/ location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 degrees longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10-20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

longitude↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Orbital Debris Optical and IR Ground-Based Observing Program Utilizing the MCAT, UKIRT, and Magellan Telescopes

Characterizing debris in Earth-orbit has become increasingly important as the population growth rises steadily, posing greater and greater threats to active satellites with each passing year. Currently, the Joint Space Operations is tracking over 23,000 pieces of debris, ranging in size from 1-meter and larger in geosychronous orbits (GEO) to 10-cm and larger at low-Earth orbits (LEO). Model estimates suggest that there may be more than 500,000 pieces of spacecraft debris larger than 1 cm currently in orbit around the Earth. With such a small fraction of the total population being tracked, and new break-ups occurring in LEO, GEO, and Geo Transfer Orbits, new assets, techniques, and approaches for characterizing this debris are needed. With this in mind, NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office has actively tasked a suite of telescopes around the world. In 2015, the newly-built 1.3m optical Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) came on-line on Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean and is currently in its commissioning phase. MCAT is designed to track Earth-orbiting objects above 200km, conduct surveys at GEO, and work in tandem with a newly-installed Raven-class commercial-off-the-shelf system, a 0.4-meter telescope co-located on Ascension with a field-of-view similar to MCAT's and research-grade instrumentation designed to complement MCAT for observations taken either simultaneously or in tandem. The 3.8m infrared UKIRT telescope on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, has been heavily tasked throughout 2015 and into 2016, collecting data on individual targets as well as in survey modes to study both the general GEO population as well as an individual break-up event of a BRIZ-M Rocket body that occurred in January 2016. Data collected include photometry and spectroscopy in the near-Infrared (0.85-2.5 m) and the mid-infrared (8-16 m). Finally, the 6.5-m Baade Magellan telescope at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile was used to collect optical photometric survey data in October 2015 of two GEO Titan breakups, focusing on locations of possible debris concentrations as indicated by the NASA standard break-up model.

Lederer, Susan↗
NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring River Basin Development and Variation in Water Resources in Transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea Using Remote Sensing

This paper presents methods of monitoring river basin development and water variability for the transboundary river in North and South Korea. River basin development, such as dams and water infrastructure in transboundary rivers, can be a potential factor of tensions between upstream and downstream countries since dams constructed upstream can adversely affect downstream riparians. However, because most of the information related to North Korea has been limited to the public, the information about dams constructed and their locations were inaccurate in many previous studies. In addition, water resources in transboundary rivers can be exploited as a political tool. Specifically, due to the unexpected water release from the Hwanggang Dam, upstream of the transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea, six South Koreans died on 6 September 2009. The Imjin River can be used as a political tool by North Korea, and seven events were reported as water conflicts in the Imjin River from 2001 to 2016. In this paper, firstly, we have updated the information about the dams constructed over the Imjin River in North Korea using multi-temporal images with a high spatial resolution (15-30 cm) obtained from Google Earth. Secondly, we analyzed inter- and intra-water variability over the Hwanggang Reservoir using open-source images obtained from the Global Surface Water Explorer. We found a considerable change in water surface variability before and after 2008, which might result from the construction of the Hwanggang Dam. Thirdly, in order to further investigate intra-annual water variability, we present a method monitoring water storage changes of the Hwanggang Reservoir using the area-elevation curve (AEC), which was derived from multi-sensor Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (Sentinel-1A and -1B) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Since many previous studies for estimating water storage change have depended on satellite altimetry dataset and optical images for deriving AEC, the method adopted in this study is the only application for such inaccessible areas since no altimetry ground track exists for the Hwanggang Reservoir and because clouds can block the study area for wet seasons. Moreover, this study has newly proven that unexpected water release can occur in dry seasons because the water storage in the Hwanggang Reservoir can be high enough to conduct a release that can be used as a geopolitical tool. Using our method, potential risks can be mitigated, not in response to a water release, but based on pre-event water storage changes in the Hwanggang Reservoir.

Kim, Donghwan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

The First Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event Observed By Solar Orbiter on 2020 November 29

Context. On 2020 November 29, the first widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25 was observed at four widely separated locations in the inner (. 1AU) heliosphere. Relativistic electrons as well as protons with energies > 50MeV were observed by Solar Orbiter (SolO), Parker Solar Probe (PSP), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)-A and multiple near-Earth spacecraft. The SEP event was associated with an M4.4 class X-ray flare and accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) and an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wave as well as a type II radio burst and multiple type III radio bursts. Aims. We present multi-spacecraft particle observations and place them in context with source observations from remote sensing instruments and discuss how such observations may further our understanding of particle acceleration and transport in this widespread event. Methods. Velocity dispersion analysis (VDA) and time shift analysis (TSA) were used to infer the particle release times at the Sun. Solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements were examined to identify structures that influence the properties of the energetic particles such as their intensity. Pitch angle distributions and first-order anisotropies were analyzed in order to characterize the particle propagation in the interplanetary medium. Results. We find that during the 2020 November 29 SEP event, particles spread over more than 230° in longitude close to 1AU. The particle onset delays observed at the different spacecraft are larger as the flare–footpoint angle increases and are consistent with those from previous STEREO observations. Comparing the timing when the EUV wave intersects the estimated magnetic footpoints of each spacecraft with particle release times from TSA and VDA, we conclude that a simple scenario where the particle release is only determined by the EUV wave propagation is unlikely for this event. Observations of anisotropic particle distributions at SolO, Wind, and STEREO-A do not rule out that particles are injected over a wide longitudinal range close to the Sun. However, the low values of the first-order anisotropy observed by near-Earth spacecraft suggest that diffusive propagation processes are likely involved.

A Kollhoff↗
NASA NTRS2004

Petrographic Evidence for Rapid Heating and Cooling During Chrondrule Formation

The chondrule cooling rates used in most chondrule-formation models appear to be too low. Recent petrographic evidence indicates that the amount of crystal (especially olivine) growth that occurred after the last melting event was about 30 smaller than the grain sizes simulated in order to estimate cooling rates. The smaller amount of growth leads to an upwards revision of cooling rates by about a factor of 1000. Most chondrules are porphyritic. They consist of large and small crystals of olivine and, less commonly, pyroxene immersed in a mesostasis having a plagioclase-rich composition. In the most primitive chondrites the mesostasis is often vitreous. Because the large majority of chondrules contain FeS, it is clear that the nebula had cooled below the FeS condensation temperature (ca. 650 K) before chondrule formation occurred. The high FeO/(FeO+MgO) ratios of some chondrules require still lower nebular temperatures (less than 500 K). The traditional view has been that porphyritic chondrules formed in a single heating/cooling event and many laboratory experiments have been carried out in various kinds of kinds of furnaces to try to simulate the formation of chondrules textures in a single heating/cooling cycle. These furnace experiments have been used to infer the cooling rates of chondrules during the temperature range at which olivine crystallized from the melt. Most of these inferred values are in the range 0.01-1 K per second. These low cooling rates are problematical because there is no long-term nebular environment that yields such values. In transparent regions chondrules would cool at rates orders of magnitude higher, whereas in an opaque nebular disk the cooling rates would be many orders of magnitude lower. And these latter conditions are not suitable locations for chondrule formation because such high temperatures would cause the complete evaporation of chondrules (which have melting temperatures about 600 K higher than their evaporation temperatures). During the last several years several kinds of petrographic evidence indicating rapid chondrule cooling have been recognized. These include thin overgrowths on relict grains, clusters of small crystals that grew following the most recent melting event, and fragments preserving shardlike shapes that would have been hidden had several tens of micrometers of new growth occurred following the last melting event. And there are other indications of rapid cooling including the preservation of volatiles such as FeS and one case where the modeling of O-isotopic and FeO/(FeO+MgO) gradients indicated a high cooling rate.

Wasson, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Quantification of Plume-Soil Interaction and Excavation Due to the Sky Crane Descent Stage

The quantification of the particulate erosion that occurs as a result of a rocket exhaust plume impinging on soil during extraterrestrial landings is critical for future robotic and human lander mission design. The aerodynamic environment that results from the reflected plumes results in dust lifting, site alteration and saltation, all of which create a potentially erosive and contaminant heavy environment for the lander vehicle and any surrounding structures. The Mars Science Lab (MSL), weighing nearly one metric ton, required higher levels of thrust from its retro propulsive systems and an entirely new descent system to minimize these effects. In this work we seek to quantify plume soil interaction and its resultant soil erosion caused by the MSL's Sky Crane descent stage engines by performing three dimensional digital terrain and elevation mapping of the Curiosity rover's landing site. Analysis of plume soil interaction altitude and time was performed by detailed examination of the Mars Descent Imager (MARDI) still frames and reconstructed inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor data. Results show initial plume soil interaction from the Sky Crane's eight engines began at ground elevations greater than 60 meters and more than 25 seconds before the rovers' touchdown event. During this time, viscous shear erosion (VSE) was dominant typically resulting in dusting of the surface with flow propagating nearly parallel to the surface. As the vehicle descended and decreased to four powered engines plume-plume and plume soil interaction increased the overall erosion rate at the surface. Visibility was greatly reduced at a height of roughly 20 meters above the surface and fell to zero ground visibility shortly after. The deployment phase of the Sky Crane descent stage hovering at nearly six meters above the surface showed the greatest amount of erosion with several large particles of soil being kicked up, recirculated, and impacting the bottom of the rover chassis. Image data obtained from MSL's navigation camera (NAVCAM) pairs on Sols 002, 003, and 016 were used to virtually recreate local surface topography and features around the rover by means of stereoscopic depth mapping. Images taken simultaneously by the left and right navigation cameras located on the rover's mast assembly spaced 42 centimeters were used to generate a three dimensional depth map from flat, two dimensional images of the same feature at slightly different angles. Image calibration with physical hardware on the rover and known terrain features were used to provide scaling information that accurately sizes features and regions of interest within the images. Digital terrain mapping analysis performed in this work describe the crater geometry (shape, radius, and depth), eroded volume, volumetric erosion rate, and estimated mass erosion rate of the Hepburn, Sleepy Dragon, Burnside, and Goulburn craters. Crater depths ranged from five to ten centimeters deep influencing an area as wide as two meters in some cases. The craters formed were highly asymmetrical and generally oblong primarily due to the underlying bedrock formations underneath the surface. Comparison with ground tests performed at the NASA AMES Planetary Aeolian Laboratory (PAL) by Mehta showed good agreement with volumetric erosion rates and crater sizes of large particle soil simulants, providing validation to Earth based ground tests of Martian regolith.

Vizcaino, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗