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NASA NTRS2011

The Anomalous Winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki Eruption or an Analog of the 2009-2010 Winter to Blame?

The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

D'Arrigo, Rosanne↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BioSentinel: Leading the Way for Deep Space CubeSat Missions

Flagship science missions are not alone in Deep Space thanks to BioSentinel, a 6U spacecraft launched on Artemis-1. BioSentinel is one of the longest operating CubeSats beyond cislunar space. The subsystems and COTS components of the BioSentinel bus are a template for future deep space missions, and the lessons learned from over a year of operations will enable improved performance for the next missions. BioSentinel achieved its unprecedented performance for an SLS secondary payload due to preparation, planning, and a robust design. Pre-launch antenna and interface testing with both DSN and ESA confirmed command and data pathways and allowed for operational flexibility in the critical early hours post-deployment. Mission Operations simulations prior to launch identified potential risks and primed operators to respond in flight, preparing the team to react quickly to successfully detumble the spacecraft and enter a power-positive state. The spacecraft would not have survived without the inclusion of the trailblazing 3D-printed composite cold gas propulsion system. The non-standard tank geometry enabled efficient use of the limited space available in the CubeSat, as well as the capability to detumble the spacecraft and manage momentum, while providing sufficient margin to execute potential delta-V maneuvers. The Iris radio has operated for over 18 months with no significant issues. Initial Iris performance estimates have been accurate throughout the mission. BioSentinel continues to collect data on thermal conditions and to validate our performance models with real-world knowledge. We have received exemplary support from our DSN partners. Following the conclusion of the primary science mission, the Linear Energy Transfer (LET) Spectrometer continued to collect solar and galactic radiation data from its location in heliocentric orbit. The free space dataset offered by the BioSentinel LET is a valuable source of data for model validation and future mission planning. As the spacecraft travels farther from Earth it is poised to provide longitudinally distributed measurements of solar particle events during solar maximum. The lessons learned from BioSentinel suggest key areas to enhance performance. The ability to upload modified flight software can increase the stability of memory management. Additional heaters in the propulsion system design have already proven successful on the Starling mission. Streamlining mission operations can reduce costs, increase data return, and better utilize DSN time. Enhancements such as these will facilitate reliable, long-duration deep space exploration using the proven BioSentinel 6U CubeSat bus.

BioSentinel↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures. Situational awareness in near real-time is essential to ensure community resilience and enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models - GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the first component of this project first focuses on integrating the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity and send alerts based on potential for impacts similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes). The second component of the project focuses on using flood outputs derived from earth observation data to validate, update and add additional exposure and impact products to flood alerts. The flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated as alerts and maps through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. In this presentation, the following objectives will be covered: (i) the effective integration of the flood models, (ii) accuracy of the flood model outputs (flood extent and depth) for specific flood events both in the United States and globally in comparison with each other and earth observation data.

Glasscoe, Margaret↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

NASA NTRS2015

Smoke Dispersion Modeling Over Complex Terrain Using High-Resolution Meteorological Data and Satellite Observations: The FireHub Platform

A total number of 20,212 fire hot spots were recorded by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument over Greece during the period 2002e2013. The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) of these events ranged from 10 up to 6000 MW at 1 km resolution, and many of these fire episodes resulted in long-range transport of smoke over distances up to several hundred kilometers. Three different smoke episodes over Greece are analyzed here using real time hot-spot observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) satellite instrument as well as from MODIS hot-spots. Simulations of smoke dispersion are performed with the FLEXPART-WRF model and particulate matter emissions are calculated directly from the observed FRP. The modeled smoke plumes are compared with smoke stereo-heights from the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) instrument and the sensitivities to atmospheric and modeling parameters are examined. Driving the simulations with high resolution meteorology (4 4 km) and using geostationary satellite data to identify the hot spots allows the description of local scale features that govern smoke dispersion. The long-range transport of smoke is found to be favored over the complex coastline environment of Greece due to the abrupt changes between land and marine planetary boundary layers (PBL) and the decoupling of smoke layers from the surface.

fire smoke↗

NASA NTRS1977

The determination of the interplanetary orbits of Vikings 1 and 2

A description is presented of the navigation-related events of the Viking Mars mission. Orbit determination system fundamentals are discussed, taking into account the trajectory models, observation models, radio data models, range considerations, optical data models, filter models, the orbit determination process, critical orbit determination inputs, and orbit determination errors. Attention is also given to questions of orbit determination strategy, orbit determination results, optical measurements processing, aspects of approach orbit determination evaluation, and the orbit determination software system.

Rourke, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Dependence of the multiplicities of secondary particles on the impact parameter in collisions of high-energy neon and iron nuclei with photoemulsion nuclei

A method is proposed for finding the dependence of mean multiplicities of secondaries on the nucleus-collision impact parameter from the data on the total interaction ensemble. The impact parameter has been shown to completely define the mean characteristics of an individual interaction event. A difference has been found between experimental results and the data calculated in terms of the cascade-evaporation model at impact-parameter values below 3 fm.

Dudkin, V. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Comparison of Quasi-Static Indentation and Drop-Weight Impact Testing on Carbon/Epoxy Laminates

This project was initiated to investigate the damage tolerance of polymer matrix composites (PMC). After a low velocity impact-such as the ones that can occur during manufacturing or service there is usually very little visual damage. There are two possible methods to simulate foreign object impact on PMC: static indentation and drop weight impact. A static method for modeling low velocity foreign object impact events for composites can prove to be very beneficial to researchers since much more data can be obtained from a static test than from an impact test. In order to examine if this is feasible, a series of static indentation and low velocity impact tests were performed and compared. Square specimens of different sizes and thicknesses were tested to cover a wide array of low velocity impact events. Laminates with a 45 degree stacking sequence were used since this is a common type of engineering laminate. Three distinct flexural rigidities under two different boundary conditions were tested in order to obtain damage due to large deflections. Comparisons between static indentation and low velocity impact tests were based on the maximum applied transverse load. The dependent parameters examined were dent depth, back surface crack length, delamination area, and load-deflection behavior. Results showed that no distinct differences could be seen between the static indentation tests and the low velocity impact tests, indicating that static indentation tests can be used to simulate low velocity impact events.

Prabhakaran, R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Dependence of the multiplicities of secondary particles on the impact parameter in collisions of high-energy neon and iron nuclei with photoemulsion nuclei

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1998

Antiproliferative effect of elevated glucose in human microvascular endothelial cells

Diabetic microangiopathy has been implicated as a fundamental feature of the pathological complications of diabetes including retinopathy, neuropathy, and diabetic foot ulceration. However, previous studies devoted to examining the deleterious effects of elevated glucose on the endothelium have been performed largely in primary cultured cells of macrovessel origin. Difficulty in the harvesting and maintenance of microvascular endothelial cells in culture have hindered the study of this relevant population. Therefore, the objective of this study was to characterize the effect of elevated glucose on the proliferation and involved signaling pathways of an immortalized human dermal microvascular endothelial cell line (HMEC-1) that possess similar characteristics to their in vivo counterparts. Human dermal microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1) were grown in the presence of normal (5 mM) or high D-glucose (20 mM) for 14 days. The proliferative response of HMEC-1 was compared under these conditions as well as the cAMP and PKC pathways by in vitro assays. Elevated glucose significantly inhibited (P < 0.05) HMEC-1 proliferation after 7, 10, and 14 days. This effect was not mimicked by 20 mM mannitol. The antiproliferative effect was more pronounced with longer exposure (1-14 days) to elevated glucose and was irreversible 4 days after a 10-day exposure. The antiproliferative effect was partially reversed in the presence of a PKA inhibitor, Rp-cAMP (10-50 microM), and/or a PKC inhibitor, Calphostin C (10 nM). HMEC-1 exposed to elevated glucose (20 mM) for 14 days caused an increase in cyclic AMP accumulation, PKA, and PKC activity but was not associated with the activation of downstream events such as CRE and AP-1 binding activity. These data support the hypothesis that HMEC-1 is a suitable model to study the deleterious effects of elevated glucose on microvascular endothelial cells. Continued studies with HMEC-1 may prove advantageous in delineation of the molecular pathophysiology associated with diabetic microangiopathy.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

NASA NTRS2004

The TechSat 21 Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment

Software has been developed to perform a number of functions essential to autonomous operation in the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE), which is scheduled to be demonstrated aboard a constellation of three spacecraft, denoted TechSat 21, to be launched by the Air Force into orbit around the Earth in January 2006. A prior version of this software was reported in Software for an Autonomous Constellation of Satellites (NPO-30355), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 11 (November 2002), page 44. The software includes the following components: Algorithms to analyze image data, generate scientific data products, and detect conditions, features, and events of potential scientific interest; A program that uses component-based computational models of hardware to analyze anomalous situations and to generate novel command sequences, including (when possible) commands to repair components diagnosed as faulty; A robust-execution-management component that uses the Spacecraft Command Language (SCL) software to enable event-driven processing and low-level autonomy; and The Continuous Activity Scheduling, Planning, Execution, and Replanning (CASPER) program for replanning activities, including downlink sessions, on the basis of scientific observations performed during previous orbit cycles.

Sherwood, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Properties of the Binary Black Hole Merger GW150914

On September 14, 2015, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detected a gravitational-wave transient (GW150914); we characterize the properties of the source and its parameters. The data around the time of the event were analyzed coherently across the LIGO network using a suite of accurate waveform models that describe gravitational waves from a compact binary system in general relativity. GW150914 was produced by a nearly equal mass binary black hole of masses 36(+5/-4) solar mass and 29(+4/-4) solar mass; for each parameter we report the median value and the range of the 90% credible interval. The dimensionless spin magnitude of the more massive black hole is bound to be less than 0.7 (at 90% probability). The luminosity distance to the source is 410(+160/-180) Mpc, corresponding to a redshift 0.09(+0.03/−0.04) assuming standard cosmology. The source location is constrained to an annulus section of 610 sq deg, primarily in the southern hemisphere. The binary merges into a black hole of mass 62(+4/−4) solar mass and spin 0.67(+0.05/−0.07). This black hole is significantly more massive than any other inferred from electromagnetic observations in the stellar-mass regime.

Abbott, B. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2024

Artificial Intelligence Workshop Report

The 4th NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Artificial Intelligence (AI) Workshop, held during March 25-27, 2024, in Huntsville, AL, highlighted the significant potential of AI and machine learning (ML) in scientific research and processes. The workshop, supported by the NASA Office of Chief Science Data Officer (OCSDO), emphasized the critical role of foundation models (FMs) and large language models (LLMs) in advancing scientific disciplines. The event brought together domain scientists, computer scientists, AI experts, program managers, program scientists, and industry partners to address key challenges and explore opportunities in applying these advanced technologies.

Manil Maskey↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

The Applied Meteorology Unit is conducting an evaluation of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) contained within the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System (ERDAS). ERDAS provides emergency response guidance for operations at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and the Kennedy Space Center in the event of an accidental hazardous material release or aborted vehicle launch. The prognostic data from RAMS is available to ERDAS for display and is used to initialize the 45th Range Safety (45 SW/SE) dispersion model. Thus, the accuracy of the 45 SW/SE dispersion model is dependent upon the accuracy of RAMS forecasts. The RAMS evaluation task consists of an objective and subjective component for the Florida warm and cool seasons of 1999-2000. The objective evaluation includes gridded and point error statistics at surface and upper-level observational sites, a comparison of the model errors to a coarser grid configuration of RAMS, and a benchmark of RAMS against the widely accepted Eta model. The warm-season subjective evaluation involves a verification of the onset and movement of the Florida east coast sea breeze and RAMS forecast precipitation. This interim report provides a summary of the RAMS objective and subjective evaluation for the 1999 Florida warm season only.

Case, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS1995

Evaluating the Type and State of Alaska Taiga Forests with Imaging Radar for Use in Ecosystem Models

Changes in the seasonal CO2 flux of the boreal forests may result from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming patterns. To monitor this potential change, a combination of information derived from remote sensing data, including forest type and growing season length, and ecophysiological models which predict the CO2 flux and its seasonal amplitude based on meteorological data, are required. In this paper we address the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map fores type and monitor canopy and soil freeze/thaw, which define the growing season for conifers, and leaf on/off, which defines the growing season for deciduous species. Aircraft SAR (AIRSAR) data collected in March 1988 during a freeze/thaw event are used to generate species maps and to determine the sensitivity of SAR to canopy freeze/thaw transitions. These data are also used to validate a microwave scattering model which is then used to determine the sensitivity of SAR to leaf on/off transitions and soil freeze/thaw. Finally, a CO2 flux algorithm is presented which utilizes SAR data and an ecophysiological model to estimate CO2 flux. CO2 flux maps are generated, from which areal estimates of CO2 flux are derived.

Alaska↗